Micro 1039: The Coalition [game over!]
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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So here's my theory. We don't really have a ton-ton of posts or content. I'm going to go off of the theory that maf...
1) Wants to *look* town
2) Needs to get into the coalition
Therefore:
Self-Healing accomplishes both of those things. If you're town, obviously the best play is to get yourself into the coalition as it's pro-win-con. Therefore in order to *claim* town as mafia, self-healing is a very easy way to do so. Secondly, if you're maf and don't make it into the coalition, and your partner doesn't then you lose. What's the easiest non-obvious way to get into a coalition? Self-Heal. Obviously town will also self-heal so it's a matter of trying to find those people that were using the self-heal as more of a town-tell. Mc Ester, Enchant, and T3 were three who immediately self-healed. T3 threw himself into a mix of three as such I would consider that more of a hiddenish self-heal. Enchant was a solo-self-heal first post. Mc Ester was also a solo-self-heal first post.
Andante - Town - Hasn't even come close to self-healing which doesn't fit the scum-win-con. Could be a long con, but doubtful.
Looker - Town-Feels - Has a strong presence, which isn't AI necessarily, but I like the vibes.
Umlaut - Likely town. Appears to be scum-hunting more than most.
MBot - Lost - Never played as maf before, so the lost could be related to that, however I think that she would be getting coached here, which her posts don't have that feel.
Galron - Middle of the Pack - I am concerned with the post implying that Looker may not be town because he isn't self-healing.
T3 - Hidden 1st Self-Heal
Enchant - 1st Self-Heal, Likely Maf
mc ester - 1st Self-Heal, Likely Maf
HEAL: Andante
HEAL: Umlaut
HEAL: MBot
HEAL: ProHawk
I'm good with me not being in the coalition should most people not town-read me which happens with much frequency.-
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Enchant Survivor
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Was this a random vote?In post 30, Enchant wrote:
VOTE: mc estherIn post 28, mc esther wrote:i dont get why looker's town but i'll accept it for now
HEAL: looker
mbot heal someone you said you wanna lock a coalition in heal someone (ya that post pings super hard)-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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I see your heals. Would love to hear your thoughts on mafia.In post 176, Enchant wrote:Oh yeah, another "I SACRIFICE MYSELF" for nothing, please continue.-
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Enchant Survivor
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You hurting chances for instawin.In post 177, ProHawk wrote:Woah woah woah, who is sacrificing here?
I don't lose if I don't get into a coalition.
I already argued about that so i disgerard all future appeals just don't expect me to have good opinion on you just for your "sacrifice" because it's just annoying and not helpful.-
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Enchant Survivor
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No.In post 178, ProHawk wrote:
Was this a random vote?In post 30, Enchant wrote:
VOTE: mc estherIn post 28, mc esther wrote:i dont get why looker's town but i'll accept it for now
HEAL: looker
mbot heal someone you said you wanna lock a coalition in heal someone (ya that post pings super hard)-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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So I don't understand where this vitriol is coming from... I have myself in my coalition. Why do we need an insta-win? IF we get it, cool. Random chance of getting it? Low. Chance of us just plain not forming a coalition if mafia are competent? HIGH.In post 180, Enchant wrote:
You hurting chances for instawin.In post 177, ProHawk wrote:Woah woah woah, who is sacrificing here?
I don't lose if I don't get into a coalition.
I already argued about that so i disgerard all future appeals just don't expect me to have good opinion on you just for your "sacrifice" because it's just annoying and not helpful.
Why did you vote mc esther?-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Where was this?In post 180, Enchant wrote:I already argued about that-
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Enchant Survivor
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Enchant Survivor
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In previous game. I was mafia, but believe me, my anger from this is universally. I hate when something dumb is considered townie.
Cease.-
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mc esther Goon
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what? ignoring self-votes, i was the first person to heal galron, you, and mbot — looker is my only sheep read. im not following waves, im making them.In post 184, Enchant wrote:Because i think mc esther is mafia trying to follow waves.~-
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mc esther Goon
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no, i had galron's thought too; it makes some sense, though i ended up dismissing it as theory disagreement. it looks hella scummy if you view it in terms of "what town motivation is there for a widely townread player to not self-heal when asked" (like, he knows he's town, shouldnt he want to be locked in?), compared to scum (who should imo also self-heal, but might reasonably be worried about looking too eager). but the flipside to me — which caused me to dismiss the read — is "looker and i clearly just dont agree on how self-healing 'works'", like, we established that earlier in the game.In post 175, ProHawk wrote:I am concerned with the post implying that Looker may not be town because he isn't self-healing.~-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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T3 He/himSurvivorHe/him
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Umlaut Jack of All Trades
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Prodge, COVID booster is kicking my butt, Andante is still scum“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,and the other kind,’ and those whodon’tsay. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs-
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Datisi it/heDrawn from Memoryit/he
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prodding Looker.I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”~M-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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You are indeed correct in your statement.In post 189, T3 wrote:i really don't think self heaing is a scummy behavior.
However consider the opposite... not self healing is anti-scum behavior.-
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mc esther Goon
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mechanically, no; but i think enchant and looker are basically locked-in, yeah. looker much less so if galron's gonna start getting all paranoid, but we'll see.In post 188, ProHawk wrote:Are we at the point of locking in a coalition though?
im going to make a stronger statement than t3 which more directly challenges your premise -- scum dont need to self-heal. i talked about this earlier when discussing this seeming paradox in the andante scumread (because it's a little bit more odd than "doesn't self-heal", she only very recently healed at all, and under pressure) -- only one scum needs to heal (in any capacity), and only if neither mafioso is being townread.ProHawk wrote:In post 189, T3 wrote:However consider the opposite... not self healing is anti-scum behavior.~-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Yes that is a scenario that I hadn't considered... The team aspect. However that only applies to midgame where you have a good idea of where you stand in the community at large. Early on you'll want to self-heal. My theory anyway, if I ever get time I'll go search out scum plays on these types of games to prove or disprove my hypothesis-
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mc esther Goon
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it can even be true in the first three posts of the game. if your buddy self-heals and immediately picks up a heal, you well decide to take an early punt on no-healing. i also just, dont think it's that hard to tell where you stand in a game where the mod literally keeps count of everyone's strongest townread.
this is conjecture, and if i can find time (no promises, but it'd be cool of me), sure i can go check what naked self-heal rates actually look like town vs. scum. but like... your theory is just conjecture too~-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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T3 He/himSurvivorHe/him
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mc esther Goon
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mc esther Goon
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this isnt true, scum sometimes want to avoid self-healing to avoid being in coalition with their buddy. i dont think that's happened this game though.In post 197, T3 wrote:slef healing is always pro-your alignment~
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