Micro 1040: Shirley, You Blitz!

[Jingle]

Vote Count 2.1

Not_Mafia has sent a letter from clown college. Unfortunately it just seems to be a bunch of red stains and scribbles, but I'm sure he's having a really fun time and can't wait for people to join him.

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to send someone to Clown College.

MegAzumaril (4 votes til Clown Town): schadd_,
bugspray (4 votes til Clown Town): MegAzumaril,
WINfried (5 votes til Clown Town):
AtE (5 votes til Clown Town):
schadd_ (5 votes til Clown Town):
Radical Rat (5 votes til Clown Town):
RH9 (5 votes til Clown Town):
Galron (5 votes til Clown Town):

Deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2022-01-10 14:27:08).

[Radical Rat]

Because earlier I had originally presumed you were trying to get jesters to claim to freeze them and not lose using blatantly faulty logic. Now that that is clearly not the case I think you just wanted to be called out for that faulty logic

My logic was/is:
Scum and Jester both have reason to claim Jester
Town does not have reason to claim Jester
Eliminating the first two Jesters is safe
Eliminating a Jester claim hits maybe Scum, maybe Jester, but almost definitely not Town

Freezing claims is also a benefit, and why I wanted the claims to happen early, but I don't really understand what's wrong with the logic there

[MegAzumarill]

The idea that town is in a better position after eliminating Jester d1.
It's 1 step from Mylo wither way

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: bugspray
VOTE: schadd_

Opinions are unchanged on these two

[MegAzumarill]

E-2 for bugspray

[MegAzumarill]

Don't put them at e-1 yet I want some people to check in first

[Radical Rat]

The idea that town is in a better position after eliminating Jester d1.
It's 1 step from Mylo wither way

Eliminating Jester

is

better than eliminating Town, until the last Jester.

4 Town
3 Jesters
2 Mafia

Jester lim puts us at:
4 Town
2 Jesters
2 Mafia

Now it's impossible to eliminate without a Town vote, and we're still 1 away from MeLo

Town lim puts us at:
3 Town
3 Jesters
2 Mafia

Town votes aren't needed to push an elimination, and we're now at MeLo, not 1 away. Note the Mafia sample Role PM says they only need parity with Town, Jesters are irrelevant.

That's a worse position, is it not?

[MegAzumarill]

I'd we have a jester claim that is in fact Jester elimination outside is better 2:2:2 odds
Killing a jester puts town into a WORSE position than the prior day, thus eliminating them should still be avoided


Am reconsidering jester on you though

[AtE]

Scum is MegAzumarill and RH9 btw

Can you elaborate on this? I especially don’t understand RH9?

~ one head(light)

[AtE]

IF it is a jester flip I think the game is solved

RR, Shadd, N_M -> Jester
Bugspray, ???-> mafia
Galron, MegAzumarill, RH9, ???-> Town

WinFried/AtE making up the last mafia slot

Yeah, maybe NM could be on to something. Don’t think I want to vote bugspray anymore.

[AtE]

Not_Mafia, pack your bags. You’re going to Clown College!

Not Mafia was a jester and has won the game!

Donk!

[AtE]

i continue to be willing to vote rad rat as well incidentally.

I’m torn now between RR and Meg. I haven’t liked bugspray but I don’t like how both of them have been pushing them.

~ 1st head

[Radical Rat]

Alright so.
I had a thought, and it's PROBABLY a horrible idea, but I want to get opinions on it anyway.

Intentionally eliminating Galron.

I know I got onto schadd_ for voting him as a "joke," but hear me out. By putting ourselves into MeLo, which is what any Town elimination would do, we put the game in danger of ending. Any surviving Jesters are now incentivized to hunt scum, because another Town elimination is game over, with them still alive. They are also disincentivized from simply pushing each other, if they find the other, because it's going to be exponentially harder for the last Jester to get killed.

So we have Jesters forced into Townsiding while we hopefully find the scumteam, and though by the same token the Jesters must Scumside after the first Mafia is hit, the change in behavior should be noticeable enough to avoid eliminating them.

[MegAzumarill]

Okay maybe you are jester

We never elim galron

Why intentionally make elo if we hit it worst case scenario anyway?
We try to get scum and if somehow bugspray is town we are just in that situation but better.

[Radical Rat]

Okay maybe you are jester

We never elim galron

Why intentionally make elo if we hit it worst case scenario anyway?
We try to get scum and if somehow bugspray is town we are just in that situation but better.

It's counter-intuitive, yes, but consider bugspray does flip Mafia, as expected.

Now the remaining two Jesters will play indistinguishably from scum.

Eliminating Town though, that forces the Jesters to help us find scum, and then when they have to change sides after the first scumflip they expose themselves as Jesters, and we know to avoid them

[Radical Rat]

I consider it a high risk high reward type deal

[MegAzumarill]

Okay maybe you are jester

We never elim galron

Why intentionally make elo if we hit it worst case scenario anyway?
We try to get scum and if somehow bugspray is town we are just in that situation but better.

It's counter-intuitive, yes, but consider bugspray does flip Mafia, as expected.

Now the remaining two Jesters will play indistinguishably from scum.

Eliminating Town though, that forces the Jesters to help us find scum, and then when they have to change sides after the first scumflip they expose themselves as Jesters, and we know to avoid them

Jester literally play opposite from scum in this scenario

[RH9]

I consider it a high risk high reward type deal

Should I be trusting you?

[MegAzumarill]

We do not elim galron ever
Should be freaking obvious

[RH9]

We do not elim galron ever
Should be freaking obvious

Yeah, I agree. I just wanted to ask RR.

[Radical Rat]

Okay maybe you are jester

We never elim galron

Why intentionally make elo if we hit it worst case scenario anyway?
We try to get scum and if somehow bugspray is town we are just in that situation but better.

It's counter-intuitive, yes, but consider bugspray does flip Mafia, as expected.

Now the remaining two Jesters will play indistinguishably from scum.

Eliminating Town though, that forces the Jesters to help us find scum, and then when they have to change sides after the first scumflip they expose themselves as Jesters, and we know to avoid them

Jester literally play opposite from scum in this scenario

I'm assuming you mean the scenario where we eliminate scum, since that's where I said Jesters would play as scum.

Playing opposite from scum means they lose, because game over when the second scum gets eliminated. Playing as though they were scum prolongs the game and makes them viable eliminations, so that's what we should expect them to do.

[MegAzumarill]

But jester wants to be eliminated and Mafia doesn't

There's a notable playtime difference

[MegAzumarill]

Playstyle *

[Radical Rat]

I consider it a high risk high reward type deal

Should I be trusting you?

No, you should be evaluating my claims for yourself and deciding whether you agree with my conclusions. If the logic is sound, then trust in me isn't required. If it isn't, I'd appreciate your feedback, again regardless of your trust in me or lack thereof.

[MegAzumarill]

Also even if we were trying to pull that off we don't elim galron
We eliminate a townread to try for that scenario without killing ic