Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!

[mc esther]

so far my biggest frustrating has been

these sorts of "i clearly just havent thought about my words" errors are littered all throughout my more rapid-fire posting and i hate it so much, gotta figure out how to slow down just the tiniest amount so i can get rid of this shit.

[Dunnstral]

I am not of the belief that a hidden alt would reveal themselves right away in the scum pt

[Dunnstral]

I've been liking mc esther's posts today and lean towards IV being scum

[Dunnstral]

In regards to Dwlee and Save the dragons: I have especially been not liking Dwlee's posts today, while Dragons is more neutral (though if it's not Dwlee then they look worse today)

VOTE: Dwlee

[Prism]

Dunnstral, how worried are you about deadlocking?

Specifically, are you aware it is impossible to actually get IV voted out without a drastic shift in the landscape?

[Prism]

And if it is not Dragons, and not Dwlee, who would it be?

Perhaps an explanation on Dwlee would go somewhere.

[Dunnstral]

Dunnstral, how worried are you about deadlocking?

Specifically, are you aware it is impossible to actually get IV voted out without a drastic shift in the landscape?

I don't intend to vote in the small group today, so for today I'm not worried about it. It becomes a real concern if we eliminate wrong today and then try to eliminate in the small group again.

And if it is not Dragons, and not Dwlee, who would it be?

I think you are more likely than Brighter Puppies, but I believe your self meta on how your day 1 was a town tell for you, and my own feelies. I'm pretty sure it's Dragons or Dwlee.

[mc esther]

It becomes a real concern if we eliminate wrong today and then try to eliminate in the small group again.

isnt this a relatively strong reason to eliminate small? i think the bad impression on d1 is going to be extremely difficult to reverse, i can imagine a very small handful of ways that people come around on townreading me, but theyre all really unlikely. if you believe there's a miselim here, surely you want to get it out of the way now?

[mc esther]

or are you saying you want to eliminate dwlee/dragons today and use the spare miselim to sort me and innocentvillager? makes sense i guess, but why not do it the other way around? we know for a fact that me and inno is a true 50/50, where std/dwlee is speculative.

[Dunnstral]

Perhaps an explanation on Dwlee would go somewhere.

Kuriyama had Dragons as leaning town / didn't talk about them much, but they indicated that they were going to vote for Dwlee today.

This is something that mc esther would not have known when they were making their night kill analysis, if they are town. (And so that is wrong.) It it actually hugely to Dwlee's benefit for Kuriyama to die today.

[Dunnstral]

^Because that post is in the large hood and it was made during night 1

[Dunnstral]

I don't like that Dwlee is advocating to elim in the small hood for info but can't pinpoint what that info is, and won't try to do so.

I don't like their fake looking analysis of their own kill choices:

I also wouldn't kill kuriyama though and your reason sounds more made up

If I were scum one of the puppies or prism would be very dead right now

As it seems pretty unfounded.

I don't like this post:

Well rn everyone is operating on assumption MC Esther is scum right

And I think that assumption also plays into people's reads of her interactions with people in the big group to solve

If we confirm the assumption it doesn't hurt our odds of hitting scum in the big group

If it actually is IV I think the entire game changes

And how does the game change? (Also I disagree with that)

[mc esther]

dwlee, who do you think my buddy is? i dont think i can find a read implying an answer anywhere, aside from some maybe-joking(?) digs at std.

[mc esther]

and yeah, i echo everyone else's question, but reframed a little: do you think iv's buddy is a different person from my buddy?

[Prism]

I just thought Kuriyama wanted to go in 3, but looking again he had shifted to lean into voting in 6. Huh.

Well, not the first thing I have missed this game and probably won't be the last. All the Elmer's clogging up the neural pathways this game.

Will be back tomorrow, though I do have two interviews to prepare for so idk how much reading I will get done.

[Prism]

She*

[mc esther]

im kinda coming around on dwlee over std based on "std doesnt kill kuri, but dwlee does". i dont think dwlee's current inactivity is alignment-indicative, but their relatively sparse d1 could be. still wayyyy pinging on prism but lmao i might just have to treat the scum!prism world as a lost game.

[Prism]

You specifically cited my posts as very town by tone iirc, both individually and as a collective, and that it was more strategic planning that was a concern.

Reading me by tone is not a good idea in general, but the use of "pinging" typically applies here and this seems a reversal of your previous stance.

I can again go over strategy another time but it is very meta-heavy. I am extremely conservative as scum and protect my own slot and influence to the death, and again the fact that these things are somehow intact is not a calculation but borderline magic. While I will not speak for notscience, I think reviewing Lukewarm makes it clear what his issue was with my slot: He did not expect me to be wrong.

[Prism]

I think the idea I want to vote in 6 should be solidly dead now, not just in doubling down but with a plethora of knowledge about the in between.

I did not like that you skipped my posts to Dunnstral arguing against it.

[mc esther]

ya fair, "pinging" was the wrong word. i was originally going for "sus" but, idk lol, felt wrong. had "fos" in there at one point, that was maybe the word to go with. yes, i was wrong about the six-group thing, i thought i acknowledged that, uh, somewhere, but i'll admit that im not 100% sure which thoughts ive voiced across my suddenly-rather-numerous posts.

[mc esther]

why do you care so much about my scumread on you? like, you presumably dont view it as genuinely threatening.

[Prism]

You did engage with the not-dicatorial bit, but did not really acknowledge that my last posts before your spree were again advocating for voting in 3.

[Prism]

why do you care so much about my scumread on you? like, you presumably dont view it as genuinely threatening.

For the first, the short answer is to sort you. The long answer is deeply ingrained habit.

Second, I do.

[Prism]

(Reads are notoriously fickle; at least two players will be eager to exploit it, whether by eliminating me or just living in the margins, and not nipping it in the bud immediately regardless of what you are would be negligent.)

[mc esther]

omg lol im so flattered but idk that seems such a paranoid belief to me

he's a lot softer on this at the start of today, it's not a hard-180, but it still doesnt look natural to me.

so like, this is the statement i made at the time; i guess that latter part ("doesnt look natural to me") is a subjective assessment that's pretty difficult to concretely agree/disagree on, but do you disagree with "a lot softer on this at the start of today"? because, that's the meat of it to me, im not sure i ever (okay, i probably inadvertently implied it somewhere in my burst of activity) said that you were explicitly advocating for eliminating within the six-group. to me, it's solely the post about six-hood conversation that debunks this, i dont think the posts were mischaracterized here (even if my language was not so precise elsewhere).