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[morph the cat]

Vote Count 4-2

Not Voting

(7): StrangeMatter, The Bombay, T3, Rogue, mastina, That Idiot Ivan, Shiro

With 7 alive it takes 4 to eliminate

Deadline: February 4, 7:30 PM US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2022-02-04 16:30:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[Shiro]

Mastina is town don't even try to muddy that.

What was the discussion like leading up to the SM target choice? What was her reaction to the Cakez flip in your neighborhood?

The post she made here is pretty much what we said in PT, sadly I want really active the last couple days because I was busy before and after the blizzard hit us.

[That Idiot Ivan]

So why do you think it makes sense for her to target SM with a disloyal message? What, outside of the Loyal modifier, is making you townread her on the merits of her play and discussion? This isn't a trick question. I'm trying to figure out what to make of her here.

[The Bombay]

The more I think about this game, and the more I have been talking to Ivan in the hood, the more sure I am that it is Rogue+T3.

If either of you guys are town, now is probably the time to come solve the game and make me see it.

[mastina]

no eliminating Rogue on autopilot. Literally everyone is or has advocated that now, which means there's bussing, and we need to sort out second scum.

Well thanks to the poison we've got a permanent mylo going on, presumably. 5 alive going into night (StrangeMatter dead, our elimination dead), then either a direct scum nightkill for 4, or a poison for 5 with one to be dead at the end of the day phase.

So scum bussing is, explicitly, something that they can afford to do.

That said, yes, second scum does need to be sorted.

I do think it's just T3 here tho.

Also, sorry, SM, but you did know that Shiro is a hider

Since this has been outted, I feel the need to point out that's how there's SEVEN claimed sources of kill interference:
LLD's bulletproof.
Your bodyguard.
StrangeMatter's jailkeep.
Shiro's hide.
Bombay's commute.
Rogue's weird-ass doctor claim.
T3's strongwilled doctor claim.

We know the first four to be town.

But the latter 3 pretty much is guaranteed to have the remaining two scum. Because 5/10 players having kill-interference mechanics is as much as I think would be acceptable. 6 is literally over half the town having access to them, and 7 is mechanically impossible now.

mastina, can you explain how unlocking a crier ability makes you IC yourself?

Because with loyal/disloyal attached to my actions, if it succeeded twice (after having first succeeded on jjh without either of those modifiers), then that would confirm that I used my action successfully as both loyal and disloyal. Which would help to confirm my alignment and the alignment of my targets. Me being able to bypass

one

(dis)loyal as scum might be possible; me being able to bypass

two

becomes far less credible.

And why you didn't target a scum read?

Because I wanted to send my message to whoever Bombay was going to be watching for extra ability to verify that my night action worked the way I intended it to.

Since my understanding is landing a message would be the third to unlock crier status, and the act of unlocking it would confirm to you and ultimately the game if the message went through?

Well I hadn't asked the mods about that until today. I wasn't sure if I would get a notification of my crier being unlocked or not. As it turns out, I will be explicitly told if an action I didn't have previously useable becomes available, per the mods, but I hadn't asked that question until today.

(This also means that, explicitly, my action did not work last night. Had it, I would've unlocked the crier, but I did not unlock the crier because the mods did not tell me I had unlocked the crier.)

No one would have know you were disloyal, why not try and trick a scum player?

Well the message I sent was worded in a way that could do exactly that, but smart scum might be able to figure out they need to lie. After all, if I was actually loyal, they'd know they wouldn't have received a message because I am town and they are not, so they'd be able to figure out that I am not loyal if they got the message and thus from there they may be able to deduce the disloyal.

So I had incentive to target a player who would be watched, so that if I did get a hit, then the scum would be outted from it.

Mastina seems mech town, but Ivan is considering Mastina used a strongman to both message LLD and Poison her at the same time. Mastina then also targeting the second poison target gives more credence to that then I originally wanted to give.

There's a problem with that.

Where's my message, then?

I sent a message to both LLD and to StrangeMatter. LLD got the message while I was loyal; StrangeMatter did not while I was disloyal. Yet the poison applied to both LLD

and

to StrangeMatter. But the message only went to LLD.

It again runs into a violation of occam's razor.

The simplest explanation for the situation is that my role functions precisely the way I have said it does. I send a message. On the night I was loyal, it worked because LLD and I are both town; on the night I was disloyal, it failed because StrangeMatter and I are both town.

The explanation required for me to be scum is that the scum roleblocked LLD (keep in mind we don't know who the scum roleblocker is), scum poisoned her, and I strongman messaged her, sending four night actions towards her and bypassing the loyal, and then that last night scum poisoned StrangeMatter but I somehow did not message StrangeMatter in spite of how I would need to have done both the night before. Meaning that for me to have been scum, scum would have needed to be able to use four actions on LLD N2, and then in spite of that, scum being able to only use two actions on StrangeMatter last night with the message not among them.

That would line up with the timeline that T3's ability was not active Night 1 because Dwlee won, and a normal night kill happened that night. But that the scum team has used the poison kill both nights since.

So I'm more asking this to StrangeMatter/Shiro (and maybe Ivan) than you because of their (conf)townness, but:

Do you think we should be aiming for the poisoner and eliminate T3 over aiming for still-basically-guaranteed-scum in the form of Rogue?

Mastina is town don't even try to muddy that.

What was the discussion like leading up to the SM target choice? What was her reaction to the Cakez flip in your neighborhood?

Sadly there wasn't much on either end because we were both fairly busy. I did some solving, Shiro asked me who I wanted to target, I laid out why I wanted to target StrangeMatter; Shiro asked about targeting Bombay instead, but also noted that StrangeMatter was a question mark. (I can do a more detailed paraphrase tomorrow if you want.)

I'm trying to figure out what to make of her here.

I've offered the receipts for why this is my towngame before. Aside from my flowchart, there's also literally three years of proof for why this is my towngame.

That, plus again: saying that I am scum is a violation of occam's razor, requiring speculation of an unproven strongman to bypass Loyal. An unproven, otherwise unseen, otherwise unknown role. Something there's no proof of. Something there's no evidence of. Literally paranoia for the sake of paranoia. Literally discrediting conftown from being conftown by inventing nonexistence reasons for doubting the clear.

When the simplest explanation of a loyal result is that it was loyal.

Plus, I asked this question yesterday. The mods didn't answer it, but it should be possible to get an answer from them, yes?

MOD: if a player had a strongmanned action, and a loyal modifier to that action, and they targeted someone of a different alignment, would the Strongman cause the action to succeed or would the Loyal cause the action to fail?

If the mods answer this with "the action would fail", would you agree that the strongmanned mailman theory was bullshit?

[The Bombay]

If the mods answer this with "the action would fail", would you agree that the strongmanned mailman theory was bullshit?

Ivan already said that he asked the mods this question via pm, and was told that strongman/strong-willed would allow you to go through loyal.

Also, you are making the occam's razor thing more complicated then it actually is.

The requirements for it to work are exactly that you are an (obviously) unclaimed strongman. That's it. That would have allowed you to both message LLD and poison her despite being made loyal.

And then you just... didn't send a message this day phase because you knew you were being made disloyal.

---

I agree with you that T3 makes more sense as Rogue's partner, and I think that Strongman + messenger seems like a weird ability combo.

I'm basically just interjecting because you are not currently engaging with the points that Ivan is actually making, which is a strongman Mastina is a loss for the town.

---

Also, I think it is fairly certain that either you or Ivan are dying tonight, so probably not worth you attacking Ivan for scum reading you this day phase.

[That Idiot Ivan]

I asked that question at the start of Day Three and got a 'succeed' answer; strongman overrides Loyal if in existence. I told people to ask the mods themselves quoting the rule that indicated they would answer private but not public. And asked at the end of the day if anyone did it.

To avoid the Disloyal part you just don't actually send the message. No strong modifier required for that.

More important thought than immediately getting into it in the next post

[That Idiot Ivan]

I owe SM an apology. Did Cakez poison Rogue from beyond the grave?

[The Bombay]

I don't think that makes sense with the flavor? Accidental renaissance equals Covid?

That is the flavor of the poison, right?

[The Bombay]

I had a thought, and it forced me to do math. My original thought was wrong, but a new math based conclusion did come out of it. -- My first thought was "are we so low on numbers that a town!rogue is impossible because we would have already lost to a double poison." This was the incorrect thought, but it did make me run the numbers.

If Rogue was town, and telling the truth about being poisoned:

-We kill scum today
-StrangeMatter and Rogue both die to their poisons
-There are 4 alive
-Night kill takes us to 3 man ELo.

So, my original thought was bad. BUT we all know that Shiro is hiding behind Mastina!

-Night kill on Mastina, bonus kill on Shiro.
-There are 2 alive tomorrow, and we lost the game even if we killed scum today.

What that means is that

it is impossible for us to win if Rogue and Mastina are both town

, so we get to play this game under the assumption that one of the MUST be scum.

Mastina, Rogue is now confirmed scum from your POV (and vice versa). You're welcome.

Spoiler:

Which is nice for me, because at the start of the night phase I was actually worried about an Ivan+T3 team, and was wondering if Ivan purposefully hooded me to get a feel for who I was watching and to decide if they needed to kill me. Again, my read on Ivan changed over the night, but now I no longer need to even paranoia that thought.

[The Bombay]

Back to bed now. I was literally lying in bed, and that thought forced me to get up and run the numbers.

[The Bombay]

I wonder if Rogue realized that claiming to be poisoned would disprove all scum teams that were localized in [Bombay, Ivan, T3] ?

[That Idiot Ivan]

Okay kids, don't post when impaired. Ignore supremely dumb idea.

[Shiro]

Vote:Rogue

I really doubt Mastina is scum here. If I am bamboozled so be it.

[The Bombay]

I looked back at my past game against scum Mastina, and I feel better calling her town here. I don't feel like she would be inclined to put Suri has her strongest town read say one, nor to hard step in the way of Suri's wagon day two. Like, neither of her partners were in her town reads/leans at all that game, the BEST they got was null. And in context, one of her partners was a consensus town read, and she easily could have put them town. Which tells me she is inclined to scum/null read her partners.

Sorry Ivan, but I did take the time to really think about scum Mastina, I just don't see it.

VOTE: Rogue

[The Bombay]

Which tells me she is inclined to scum/null read her partners.

Outside of my experience with her, I have seen other people comment that if Mastina is right on a scum read day one, that means she is scum.

I am sure that is an exaggeration. It possibly does not really apply to her town game, and is more people picking up that she regularly scum reads her partners when she is scum.

[mastina]

Also, you are making the occam's razor thing more complicated then it actually is.

The requirements for it to work are exactly that you are an (obviously) unclaimed strongman. That's it. That would have allowed you to both message LLD and poison her despite being made loyal.

That would require the poison to not be attached to the message. Which would thus require a scumastina to be a Multitasking Strongman Poisoner Messenger.

So no, I'm not making it more complicated than it is; you're consistently simplifying a situation which there's no simple simplification. Me being town has one ridiculously simple explanation.

Me being scum requires the existence of multiple unproven things that there's zero proof of and decent evidence of it not existing.

What that means is that

it is impossible for us to win if Rogue and Mastina are both town

, so we get to play this game under the assumption that one of the MUST be scum.

Mastina, Rogue is now confirmed scum from your POV (and vice versa). You're welcome.

Actually, I'm pretty sure that the mods would let that play out to the very end because the scum haven't won in that scenario until they do submit the correct kill. So we wouldn't have lost today; we'd not even lose going into night. It'd only be when scum locked in the correct nightkill that scum would win.

That said, I'm probably voting Rogue anyway because Rogue is probably just scum anyway, so...

[The Bombay]

Actually, I'm pretty sure that the mods would let that play out to the very end

I understand this.

My point was that considering the other possibility is a waste of time. Because if you and Rogue were both town, we lost.

Literally a waste of time for us to consider that scenario, because in that scenario we have no way to win.

So, we should always play as if it is impossible, and play to win in the other possibilities.

I guess the more accurate statement is "Rogue is either scum from your pov, or we have already lost the game and none of this matters. Either way, you play that out as if they are confirmed scum."

[mastina]

My point was that considering the other possibility is a waste of time. Because if you and Rogue were both town, we lost. Literally a waste of time for us to consider that scenario, because in that scenario we have no way to win. So, we should always play as if it is impossible, and play to win in the other possibilities.
I guess the more accurate statement is "Rogue is either scum from your pov, or we have already lost the game and none of this matters. Either way, you play that out as if they are confirmed scum."

That's fair!

I'm not voting yet tho because that'd be self-hammer range I think for Rogue, so, letting day play out etc.

[morph the cat]

T3 has been prodded.

[T3]

reading

[That Idiot Ivan]

Have ffery or Cabd ever run a game where scum *don't* multitask?

It doesn't matter. Shiro and Bombay are both certain that it's not you, mastina, so I just get to hope they're right and that you hitting all the notes on me you used to back in 2013-2014 is just a coincidence. And that Cakez and LLD both didn't townread you because they were off.

[T3]

rogue is always the best im here.

[T3]

i protected lld because she was the obvious kill.
it did occur to me later that i could be the cause of the no kil.

[Lukewarm]

i protected lld because she was the obvious kill.
it did occur to me later that i could be the cause of the no kil.

And you were okay letting the thread think they had a guilty on Rogue?