Mini 697: Prisoner's Dilemma Mafia {Game Over!}


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Post Post #7 (isolation #0) » Sun Oct 26, 2008 12:18 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

/confirm
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Post Post #23 (isolation #1) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 11:36 am

Post by CarnCarn »

So... what exactly are the confirm with extreme justice/prejudice posts about (Seraphim and ABR respectively)?
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Post Post #25 (isolation #2) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 11:48 am

Post by CarnCarn »

humscunter wrote:....They're jokes.

Vote: CarnCarn
What makes
you
so sure? They're certainly not funny in any way I can see.
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Post Post #27 (isolation #3) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 12:05 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

You know what? You're right. It's clearly some sort of NK code. Congrats on finding a scumpair.
Oh, I'm going to like you.
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Post Post #33 (isolation #4) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:07 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Crazy wrote: That bolded part. Nobody take it. Ever, or we'll send you to prison again the next day.

Can everyone agree on this?
I agree to this.

Also, assuming only one scum team, it's not a good idea to send two scum into Prison on any night.
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Post Post #34 (isolation #5) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:08 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

orangepenguin wrote: (i'm a penguin)
Seriously.
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Post Post #38 (isolation #6) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:23 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Send: springlullaby

Send: CarnCarn


The only thing I see with the plan is that sometimes it might take multiple nights to figure someone out, and this leads to attrition of the town via night kills.
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Post Post #45 (isolation #7) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:56 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Why else would he be so eager to send himself first, along with the person who cooked up the plot to clear townies.
Because the plan technically works, given time. I think springlullaby (sl) is town and the plan catches scum if they try to take out townies by faking guilties anyway.
I'm sending myself because I'm the only other person who I know is definately town at the point.
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Post Post #46 (isolation #8) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:58 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

There are clearly NKs; read the rules carefully.
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Post Post #50 (isolation #9) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:24 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

That, along with:
Machiavellian-Mafia wrote: 5. While imprisoned, those players cannot target others and cannot be targeted by others.
icemanE wrote: Maybe I'm an idiot, but I reread the rules and didn't see anything about night kills. Maybe you can point it out for me, godfather?
Yes, yes you are... even if I were GF, I couldn't possibly fake a guilty on someone else. If I did, I would get axed the next day.
I'm pretty sure you're scum, btw.
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Post Post #52 (isolation #10) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:41 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

I meant you going to jail and getting investigated would turn up an innocent on you if you're godfather.
You don't get investigated when you go to jail; you get investigative powers if both of you choose "No"
If I were GF, or any other scum for that matter, I wouldn't be able to fake a guilty because it would get me killed the next day.
There is nothing about NKs implicitly stated in the rules. Just because there are "other" actions to protect from besides investigation does not mean they're night kills.
Well, with doc protection and the fact that the prisoners can't be night targeted, I assumed it was clear there would be NKs.

The more I think about this plan, the more I think it will fail because of NKs since it is really slow.
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Post Post #55 (isolation #11) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 4:15 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

What I'm saying is, following spring's plan (unless I'm misreading it or misunderstanding it), when you and spring (if you're the two that go to jail) cross investigate each other, spring will find you innocent if you're the godfather.
Ah, OK. Well, that's true, but it technically wouldn't do the town any harm by itself, unless I come back the next day with a fake-guilty that gets killed. btw, I am not a GF, that's just hypothetical.
But, the problem is, just to get to that step takes about 2-3 nights, which, if there are NKs, is a terrible plan for the town.
If you don't think there are NKs, then what is doc protect for? It's possible that it is only against the 50% chance of daykill, but I doubt it would be that limited.

Mod: Is the doc protect benefit choice applicable for day, night or both?
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Post Post #58 (isolation #12) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 5:22 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

CarnCarn, with all your GF talk, it sure seems you are convinced there is a GF in the game. Perhaps you have some inside information that needs to be shared with the town?
lol, I'm not even the one who brought it up. I have no idea if there is a GF and whether they would test innocent.

Also, if you think both spring and I are scum, why are you sending both of us into prison? You do realize that two scum in prison can both just choose the daykill option and randomly kill townies the next day?
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Post Post #65 (isolation #13) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 6:03 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:
CarnCarn wrote:
Mod: Is the doc protect benefit choice applicable for day, night or both?
The doc protection bonus from those PD scenarios can only be used during the night.
I really think this means NKs, despite the lack of an outright statement by the mod. I may be missing something, though.
Anyways, with NKs, and reconsidering how long spring's plan seems to take to do anything, I'm going to:
Unsend: springlullaby

Unsend: CarnCarn
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Post Post #81 (isolation #14) » Wed Oct 29, 2008 12:35 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

If we go with this plan, do we decide beforehand who we want investigated? I think that should be a requirement, especially if there are NKs.
If not, here is what can happen:
A scum gets into prison and only "investigates" someone they know is not on their team. Then, that prison trip is basically wasted and another night of killing ensues. Or, the scum can pull a fake-innocent on their scum buddy.
I think this plan really won't work because of the loopholes for scum, especially with NKs.
I think this should be more about townhunting and sending those people to prison to vote No-No and then letting them day kill the scummiest suspects. I really don't see a way to break this game.
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Post Post #82 (isolation #15) » Wed Oct 29, 2008 12:48 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

icemanE wrote:
send: Crazy
send: OP


Those two seem random enough to justify sending. I don't think we should send spring tonight, as she came up with the plan.
Are you sure it's random?
DragonsofSummer wrote:
send Crazy

send OrangePenguin


I have no problems with the plan at all, but it does get complicated there are night kills.
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Post Post #84 (isolation #16) » Wed Oct 29, 2008 1:14 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Tony Montana wrote: They get Daycop ability for the next day. We can discuss it then.
Oh, right, good point.
Also, you mentioned punishments for people who choose "Yes" in prison. How exactly are they going to be punished? Do we actually have to waste a day sending people to prison, trusting them both to choose "No" and picking the daykill (only 50% btw) option to get rid of that person the next day? That's a really drawn out process and it basically wastes two days/nights even if that one scum gets punished.
Or, are you thinking there is some vig that will handle the punishment? But what happens if/when that vig dies? There is unfortunately no easy way to punish after that.
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Post Post #89 (isolation #17) » Wed Oct 29, 2008 2:47 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Crazy, what happens if we send a scum and they give a fake innocent on a team member? How/when would we find out?
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Post Post #91 (isolation #18) » Wed Oct 29, 2008 2:53 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Send: Tony Montana
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Post Post #97 (isolation #19) » Wed Oct 29, 2008 6:22 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Albert B. Rampage wrote: I want to go.

If you're going to send me, please specify whether you think I'm scum or town beforehand.
Send: Albert B. Rampage

Well, I'll just say that, if anyone is actually sending someone they think is scum, I would like to know why they are doing so.
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Post Post #102 (isolation #20) » Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:03 am

Post by CarnCarn »

I'm just going to throw this out there:

The original Prisoner's Dilemma was created by law enforcement to get criminals to confess (giving them a dominant strategy to choose Yes over No). Do you think that there might be some hidden penalty if we throw 2 scum into prison?
It would make sense in real life, since the method tries to get scum to confess. I'm thinking there is something the scum know about the setup of the interrogation that we don't, and that they really don't want to end up in prison together.

Your thoughts?
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Post Post #114 (isolation #21) » Fri Oct 31, 2008 2:46 am

Post by CarnCarn »

RedCoyote wrote: I don't understand. This would clearly help the scum because they know who it's their partner that's going in with them. If anything this is the worst scenario, because then both of the scum will get the benefits of a double "no" vote and completely throw this town into disarray.
springlullaby wrote: I'm not sure why the mod would hid a mechanism like that, because sending in two scums at the same time is pretty difficult a goal to achieve.
You guys missed the point. What I'm saying is that the flavor would make sense to punish both scum in jail vs. giving them a bonus, so yeah I think there is a hidden penalty that only the scum are probably aware of.
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Post Post #121 (isolation #22) » Fri Oct 31, 2008 8:08 am

Post by CarnCarn »

About the daycop thing - the results are given same day or at night?
Assuming same day, otherwise it wouldn't be any different from a night investigation, really.
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Post Post #126 (isolation #23) » Fri Oct 31, 2008 2:58 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

SlySly wrote:
TonyMontana wrote:Maybe we all should just roll dice...
Finally, a plan I can understand and a plan I can keep up with!!

Original Roll String: 2d6 (STATIC)
2 6-Sided Dice: (4, 1) = 5


The dice say:

send: Tony Montana
Huh? How did you come up with that? And why did you use 2 6-sixed dice?!
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Post Post #133 (isolation #24) » Sat Nov 01, 2008 6:20 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Well, I'll go with the dice roll, too, I guess, cuz all the cool kidz are doing it.

Original Roll String: 2d12
2 12-Sided Dice: (12, 12) = 24
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Post Post #134 (isolation #25) » Sat Nov 01, 2008 6:23 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Unsend: Tony Montana
Unsend: Albert B. Rampage
Send: Crazy
Send: Sly-Sly


Disclaimer: I reserve the right to revoke my dice-based voting at any time.
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Post Post #135 (isolation #26) » Sat Nov 01, 2008 6:27 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Tony Montana wrote: Also, I just noticed Sly used 6-sided dice. Even more befuddled, I am.
If it was intentional, Sly was either trying to avoid hitting your name (because you can't roll a 1 with 2 dice), or was trying to avoid the whole bottom half of the list.
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Post Post #140 (isolation #27) » Sat Nov 01, 2008 9:24 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Tony Montana wrote: Dice rolls are unfixable, and I'm guessing you previewed your post, thinking that was the result you would get.
Tony Montana wrote: Seeing as he sent me, I don't think avoiding me was a reason.
I'm not gonna speculate into what on earth sly was thinking with his roll, I wanna hear him explain it.
Well, even on previewing, it would be impossible to come up with your name, unless he's using some other chart. Definately want to hear this explanation.
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Post Post #141 (isolation #28) » Sat Nov 01, 2008 9:27 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Crazy wrote:
Original Roll String: 2d12 (STATIC)
2 12-Sided Dice: (8, 1) = 9


There. I dunno what you want me to do with that. I'm happy to just wagon anybody... since we are going with SL's plan, right?
Well, according to the original mod list of players given below by spring, your dice roll says you should vote SlySly (8) and Tony Montana (1):
springlullaby wrote: 1.TonyMontana
2.Crazy
3.Albert B. Rampage
4.CarnCarn
5.humscunter
6.springlullaby
7.Seraphim
8.SlySly
9.orangepenguin
10.DragonsofSummer
11.icemanE
12.RedCoyote
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Post Post #152 (isolation #29) » Sat Nov 01, 2008 12:47 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

So, 1 more vote for OP and it goes to night already... hmm
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Post Post #153 (isolation #30) » Sat Nov 01, 2008 12:50 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

OK, I'll do it.
Unsend: SlySly
Send: orangepenguin
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Post Post #157 (isolation #31) » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:06 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Why would someone kill the prisoner? This game makes even less sense than it did to begin. I am really clueless right now.
We were all going under the assumption that the prisoners would be safe from any night targets, but apparently this is not the case. If this scenario can repeat, then sl's plan is surely busted.
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Post Post #159 (isolation #32) » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:46 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:5. While imprisoned, those players cannot target others and cannot be targeted by others.
I really don't think the mod would lie to us, despite what the Police Chief claims to have happened.
Mod: Did you lie to us?

^^Eh, we'll see where this goes^^

This makes me think the kill had to somehow be conducted from within (either OP, or someone subsituting for OP, or some other character that has access to the interrogation room).
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Post Post #166 (isolation #33) » Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:18 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Exactly spring. I'm thinking theres a lot of behind-the-scenes stuff going on here. I will point again to my statement about trying to put two scum in prison together. I really don't think they would want that.
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Post Post #169 (isolation #34) » Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:28 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Send: Seraphim
Send: SlySly

Gonna leave it at this for now. Will explain later when I get a chance.
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Post Post #199 (isolation #35) » Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:00 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Why shouldn't OP just claim at this point? Even just a soft claim would help pin him down the rest of the game if he's scum. I don't really understand the rush to send him back, especially if you think he's scum and the NK was part of his doing.

I will elaborate on my position about why sending 2 scum into prison is a good idea for town, and bad for scum. First of all, it simply makes no sense for theme to actually reward scum when they are put in jail by town (when does that ever make sense??); those who argue otherwise are either really short-sighted, without an eye on the big picture, or scum trying to confuse town.
Second, I actually asked the mod about this in the pregame phase. I wondered why scum wouldn't want to be in prison, since (and he has confirmed this to me), scum do indeed know each other's identities and could seemingly manipulate the system to get put in jail and gain abilities. When I pointed this out, the mod replied, essentially, that it is not that simple (ask him about this, I dare ya).

This leads me to believe that there is indeed some penalty to scum for ending up in jail together. So, basically, we need to scumhunt as usual and make the best effort to send the two scummiest players to prison each night.
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Post Post #204 (isolation #36) » Wed Nov 05, 2008 9:14 am

Post by CarnCarn »

The spring=scum story is interesting, but I doubt it's correct. For one thing, I just don't see a scum trying to pass off a plan that only helps them for one night (and only the first night, at that). Also, spring seemed genuinely unsure about NKs, like a lot of other people (even though doc protects and night targeting were mentioned in the rules); I doubt you could say they are all scum.

We haven't heard from humscunter in a while. What are your thoughts on N1 and the current situation?

Also,

Unsend: SlySly
; I think this day is being rushed with no reason.
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Post Post #205 (isolation #37) » Wed Nov 05, 2008 9:16 am

Post by CarnCarn »

I find it pretty unsettling that OP is being thrown back into the lion's den by so many people without being pressured for any sort of claim
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Post Post #211 (isolation #38) » Wed Nov 05, 2008 6:55 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

@Sly - I wanted to play along and not let the scum know I figured out a weakness early on? It's not like we were going to be able to send 2 scum day 1, anyway. It hard enough to find one person, let alone 2.
Your case against me is pretty weak. I'm not lying about this; just ask the mod yourself (in fact, I encourage everyone to). There is no reason for me to put the information forward if I were scum.
In fact, after the random stage yesterday, I started mentioning this exact thing. The posts you mention are VERY early in the game; I didn't want to throw it out there too early because scum would realize I was on to something and change their early behavior.
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Post Post #212 (isolation #39) » Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:09 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

OP wrote:But if you really want me to claim, I will tomorrow when it will benefit the town.
What makes you so sure?
OP wrote:I am surely not going to claim Day 2. I don't really see why it would help the town- it would just give the mafia more info, which I don't want.
It helps the town because, if your claim makes sense and you are indeed town, then there is no reason to send you back to jail. You do realize that you appear suspicious from the events N1?
The day scene is fine, but it doesn't mean that you're not scum and that in fact, your team is allowed to break in and NK if only one of you is in prison.
Also, it's not true that both of you will die if you answer yes. That is only one possible outcome of the rock paper scissors match.
Anyway, I have a gut feeling that you're not scum, but I'd like this to be supported by some evidence especially after that crazy N1 (pun intended :P).

Also, Sly, can you explain your TM vote from yesterday? I know it's been asked a couple times already but you've ignored it every time.
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Post Post #214 (isolation #40) » Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:45 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

What I mean is, how is it a joke? Your original post showed no signs whatsoever of joking; I see your explanation as more of a back track/afterthought than something that makes logical sense with what you originally wrote.
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Post Post #219 (isolation #41) » Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:38 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

TO EVERYONE: I do not have absolute "mod confirmed" info about the setup; never said I did (and why the hell would he directly tell me something about the setup just because I asked?). Sly you are twisting words left and right. All I said is that, based on the response I got from the mod pregame, I was lead to believe there is some penalty for scum ending up in jail together, but I wanted to keep this speculation to myself in the early stages of D1 for obvious protown reasons.
SlySly wrote:This is ramblings of scum trying to justify misleading the town to rush through day 1. If you know that sending 2 scum to prison is protwn, especially knowing that from the mod, you revealing that on day one would have been protown. It would have generated more desire to discuss and expose scum. Your withholding of protown mod confirmed information was not protown, it was downright scummy.
But I
DID
mention it day 1. And NO, it would not be terribly useful D1 to go into more detail (mentioning the mod) then because there is little info to catch 2 scum with. Why would I waste this info when it wasn't important?
Actually, your surprise at my initial comment about sending two scum being bad for town is kind of scummy.
SlySly wrote:There is no logic in a ridiculous joke. I made a sarcastic comment followed by an obviously not serious roll. How could I possibly decide to send Tony based on a roll of two 6 sided dice and getting a 4 and 1? I couldn't, it was a post entirely in jest.
Har har. Make a post that makes no sense in retrospect and dismiss it as a joke; that is an excellent defense!

And to both SlySly and RedCoyote, how does my revealing this info make me scum? It simply doesn't, and you two wish I'd never mentioned it; there's absolutely no reason for anyone to be upset with my revealing this information, except for the scum, of course. Guess what that makes you.
Unsend: Seraphim
Send: SlySly
Send: RedCoyote
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Post Post #220 (isolation #42) » Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:41 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

AND, not to mention that, all the discussion of mod speculation aside, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that send scum to PRISON would NOT help them, thematically speaking.
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Post Post #233 (isolation #43) » Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:10 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Albert B. Rampage wrote: Iceman, your plan won't work... There's no time to day-cop everyone one by one...
This. Unless you really think it was a one-shot.
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Post Post #236 (isolation #44) » Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:41 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

iceman, your plan doesn't work all that well if there are NKs, even if they are outside of prison. For example, we are already down to 11 players, with one dead townie.
If we assume 1 NK/night, and minimum of 2 scum (possibly 3):
then after tonight we would be down to 8 town, 2 scum (maybe 7, 3)
So, after a round of investigations, if we pick randomly, the chances of getting a guilty on at least one scum are only 1-(0.80)(0.80)=0.36, assuming we rolled dice on who out of the 10 players to investigate.
So, on the relatively low probability that we do find scum, we have to repeat this process, suffering another NK:
after a third night we would be down to 7 town, 2 scum (possibly 6, 3)
Then, given the daykill is only 50% chance, the chance of killing that scum is 1-(0.5)^2=0.75, which is a decent chance, but 1/4 times we don't succeed.

Assuming we don't get a guilty tomorrow (1:2 odds that we don't), that does narrow down the list of suspects:
After a third night we would be down to 7 town, 2 scum, with probably 1 definately confirmed town (as the other might get NK'd; we'll go with the worst case scenarios here). Then, randomly investigating gives odds of finding scum are 1-(2/3)^2=5/9=0.56, which is somewhat favorable. However, we would have to repeat the process and suffer another NK, etc.

Also, this assumes that the prisoners are telling the truth about their investigations, which is not easy to confirm. Furthermore, if we assume 3 scum the chances of finding scum are obviously higher, but I choose to calculate things using only 2.
Anyway, I think there are a lot of "if's" in this plan; that is why I am hesitant.
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Post Post #240 (isolation #45) » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:41 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Then, randomly investigating gives odds of finding scum are 1-(2/3)^2=5/9=0.56, which is somewhat favorable.
Oops, I should correct this; minor mistake in my thinking. The chances are actually 1-(3/4)^2=7/16=0.4375, so they are actually not much better than the previous day's chances.
Anyway, it just seems like this plan seems to fail, and that's even before we add in all the "unless otherwise stated" stuff.
Albert B. Rampage wrote:I am sure the post above is sound but I will not read it.

This is an example of my philosophy. Let the people who know what they're doing do it.
I don't know anything more about this than you (I think). Everything I said is based off stuff ITT.
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Post Post #246 (isolation #46) » Fri Nov 07, 2008 6:43 am

Post by CarnCarn »

you just put both of them at L-1
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Post Post #248 (isolation #47) » Fri Nov 07, 2008 6:49 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Oh, right I didn't see the two unsends above.
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Post Post #249 (isolation #48) » Fri Nov 07, 2008 6:54 am

Post by CarnCarn »

icemanE wrote:
send: Sly
for making a case I think was a pretty big stretch.
Wait, what are you referring to?
SlySly wrote: Does this mean the player will get 4 votes, or does each of their 2 votes count double?
My guess is that the votes count double. 4 different votes is not all that useful.
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Post Post #256 (isolation #49) » Fri Nov 07, 2008 5:43 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Sly, if I'm so wrong, then why are you following my suggestions? And why do you keep saying I have mod-confirmed info about the setup?
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Post Post #260 (isolation #50) » Sat Nov 08, 2008 4:29 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Has anyone else asked the mod about how sending two scum to jail, given that they know each other's identities, is seemingly bad for town?
If not, don't do it ITT, do it via PM. I've already told you how he answered me pregame, but I'd like to know what responses others get.
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Post Post #268 (isolation #51) » Sun Nov 09, 2008 5:29 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Unsend: RedCoyote
Send: orangepenguin

I'm feeling a OP-SlySly connection
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Post Post #270 (isolation #52) » Sun Nov 09, 2008 5:58 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

For all the BS cases that Sly tried to put together, he only gave you a cursory look, as if to hedge his bets.
Like I said, I think scum get some benefit from sending in 1 and ONLY 1 member into prison, so the fact that you are voting Sly and me is not that surprising.
I'm much more convinced that he is scum than that you are scum, but I'm still thinking that sending you back is necessary to find out whether last night was a one-time thing or you may actually be scum.

To TCS and icemanE: Why do you think this game is any different from normal mafia, where we try to hunt for scum? Is your view based on the interrogation chart on page 1? If it is, please remember the huge "unless otherwise stated" caveat. Also:
CarnCarn wrote:Has anyone else asked the mod about how sending two scum to jail, given that they know each other's identities, is seemingly bad for town?
If not, don't do it ITT, do it via PM. I've already told you how he answered me pregame, but I'd like to know what responses others get.
This is an idea.
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Post Post #282 (isolation #53) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:48 am

Post by CarnCarn »

The Central Scrutinizer wrote:if we get the same result as Night One, we can be more positive that orangepenguin and one of our sendees are scum together;
But Crazy was town...
The Central Scrutinizer wrote:As I write I'm becoming increasingly certain that we have the two most probable possibilities here. A scum-town combination lets scum "sneak" a person in to kill the townie, or scum had a one-shot "superkill" that they decided was most beneficial to use on day one in order to confound us. Any other ideas, I'd like to hear and consider of course.
I agree with this.
The Central Scrutinizer wrote:In conclusion, I'd suggest a combination of SlySly and Spring. I believe SlySly to be scum, and Spring has strong town leanings in my view because of his attempt to game the system, but he might still have been scum trying to get us to waste time (though unlikely, in my opinion).
Why not send Sly and OP? If one of them dies, then we know the N1 mechanism is not a scum sneaking in to get a kill (unless Sly dies and he turns out to be town). If OP dies and is town, then it proves the "scum get a kill by sneaking one in" theory wrong. If they both survive, they could be town or scum together (I think they would probably be town; I don't see two scum surviving intact after being sent to prison). I think this pairing would give us the most insight into the game mechanics and has a good chance of locking up 2 scum.
icemanE wrote:This is clearly different, Carn. At the moment I see no reliable way of dispensing with scum even when we do find them. Finding out how to do that should obviously be our first priority.
A logical way is to send them to prison, counting on the "unless specified otherwise" clause.
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Post Post #288 (isolation #54) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 9:25 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Albert B. Rampage wrote: One of CarnCarn and TCS is definitely scum.
ABR plz explain. Not liking my wagon, here.
icemanE wrote: Now that I think of it, we probably aren't going to learn anything if OP goes again. I highly doubt he'd be ballsy enough to kill while in prison again on two consecutive nights.
unsend: OP.
So, the scum might not kill tonight and you think this is a bad thing??
FoS: icemanE
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Post Post #289 (isolation #55) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 9:26 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Albert B. Rampage wrote: Sly, can you "take care" of CarnCarn if we send you to prison tonight?
Guys, take a good look at ABR tomorrow if I'm gone.
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Post Post #290 (isolation #56) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 9:44 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Actually, never mind that. He's most likely town; I get the feeling he just plays like this all the time.
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Post Post #293 (isolation #57) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 9:57 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Albert B. Rampage wrote: Well, Carn, if we send you to prison are you going to say yes or no?
That will probably be irrelevant. And considering what I think about my would-be inmate, I would say "Yes" anyway.
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Post Post #296 (isolation #58) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:02 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Albert B. Rampage wrote:
CarnCarn wrote:
Albert B. Rampage wrote: One of CarnCarn and TCS is definitely scum.
ABR plz explain. Not liking my wagon, here.
1.You both agree a lot. Generally scum agree with a town to look better when said townie dies.

2. You both want some sort of "plan". Which helps the scum.
1. I never liked humscunter (who TCS replaced).

2. No, we're trying to figure out how to eliminate scum.
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Post Post #298 (isolation #59) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:06 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Albert B. Rampage wrote:Sly you have no choice but to vote yes as well.
And indeed this is exactly the Prisoner's Dilemma. If I think I know what he will answer, then I can use that info to form my own decision. If in fact there is no "unless specified otherwise" clause here, you have no way to punish
either
of us for choosing "No."
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Post Post #300 (isolation #60) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:10 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Albert B. Rampage wrote:So if you are sent to prison with TCS, will you answer yes or no?
No matter who I am sent to prison with, I will answer the question honestly (with whatever info I can piece together about the other person).
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Post Post #303 (isolation #61) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:20 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Actually, thinking about this some more, we may not need to actually
kill
scum, just lock them up. Sure, it might be possible to use the daykill ability, but I think if we just send them to prison, they will just get locked up for life or something (which leads me to strongly believe that there are more than 2 scum in this game, because an accidental D1 scum pairing could end the game right there).
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Post Post #304 (isolation #62) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:22 am

Post by CarnCarn »

CarnCarn wrote:
icemanE wrote: Now that I think of it, we probably aren't going to learn anything if OP goes again. I highly doubt he'd be ballsy enough to kill while in prison again on two consecutive nights.
unsend: OP.
So, the scum might not kill tonight and you think this is a bad thing??
FoS: icemanE
ice can you plz answer this?
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Post Post #305 (isolation #63) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:25 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Willing to self-hammer the two of us (me and Sly). Suspecting a SlySly, orangepenguin, icemanE connection.
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Post Post #308 (isolation #64) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:27 am

Post by CarnCarn »

ABR wrote:CarnCarn, if we send you with TCS, will you answer yes or no?
I already answered this above. Besides, if we are really playing PD, it won't make a difference what I say now because no one can force me to stick to my choice.
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Post Post #310 (isolation #65) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:29 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Another thing...you and TCS speculate WAY too much about the setup to be any good to the town...
Well, I don't see you putting forth any ideas on how to eliminate scum... Do you have any info to share?
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Post Post #312 (isolation #66) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:31 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Also, both of you have already been hammered
Oh, yes, this is true.
Sending OP would be a bad thing, yes. Did you read what I said or are you just twisting my words? It'd be nice if you wouldn't do that anymore. That was clearly not what I meant to imply.
You didn't explain why it's bad. All you said was that he might not kill tonight if he's sent to jail. How is that bad?
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Post Post #313 (isolation #67) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:32 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Albert B. Rampage wrote:I don't like your antagonistic attitude.
:roll:
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Post Post #316 (isolation #68) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:36 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Like I said, read what I've said. The whole reason for sending OP to jail was to see if there was another NK while he was in there - AKA, is he scum killing from the inside. As I said, he probably wouldn't be dumb enough to do that. And if there was another break in while OP was in there, it could be scum trying a frame. Or it could be OP assuming we'd assume it was a frame.
That's ridiculous. Why wouldn't he kill? It's not like we can do anything about it anyway since we don't know for sure how to eliminate him even if he is scum.
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Post Post #318 (isolation #69) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:43 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Mod: Are interrogation choices publicly revealed? e.g., if someone answers yes while the other answers no, is this published?
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Post Post #319 (isolation #70) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:46 am

Post by CarnCarn »

WIFOM.
No, it's not. OP, if he's scum, would clearly benefit by continuing to kill, as long as we don't figure out how to get rid of him. There's no reason not to.
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Post Post #320 (isolation #71) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:30 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Say yes tonight.
Will do a read through of SlySly and a complete read through and reevaluate from there. Like I said, no matter what I answered to ABR, I can always change my answer. There's no way for me to know whether ABR is scum thinking of a plan to get townies killed by forcing them to answer yes.
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Post Post #377 (isolation #72) » Wed Nov 19, 2008 3:13 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

WHOO! Good job town

My initial votes D2 were spot on, as was my thinking on ice early in the game. Nice try trying to pin me as the the Godfather, ice ;)

And why did the two mafia answer yes??
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Post Post #380 (isolation #73) » Wed Nov 19, 2008 3:33 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

oh, right, OP made them do it. that makes sense.
why couldn't ice use the Super Poliece Chief kit? is it because he was in prison himself?

Also, it's a good think OP didn't use his ability N1 for spring's plan; I didn't realize his ability was one-shot.
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Post Post #382 (isolation #74) » Wed Nov 19, 2008 3:45 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:CarnCarn asked me about sending two scum to prison (which I gave a non-answer response) and repeatly mentioned his speculation about it in this game. In the end CarnCarn was indeed onto something as orangepenguin used his ability in the perfect situation and resulted in the ideal scenario for the town.
I have the PM saved; in case anyone wanted to know for sure:
Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:
CarnCarn wrote:
Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:The game of Mafia in general is about informed minority vs. uninformed majority, so yes the scum team knows each others' identities.
Whether sending two scum into interrogation is a big punishment is debatable.
Well, given the benefits of a No-No outcome, I don't see how sending two scum into interrogation, given that they know each other's identities, is not detrimental to town. Unless there is some hidden penalty for answering wrong or something.
I can't answer further. I'm sure you can discuss this in the game and see where it takes you and the town.
Emphasis added. I did jump to some conclusions, but intuitively I could see prison just being a bad place for scum to be. I was way off about an automatic penalty though.

I'm surprised ice and seraphim went though with their plan to send each other to prison even after OP claimed his powers.

Also, another general comment: I thought something might be rotten after noone asked to me explain my SlySly and Seraphim votes, even though I said I would explain later (but never did).

And thanks to M-M for making this unique setup. It was a lot of fun, although, as town, I was clueless about most of what was going on; moreso than in other games. That was part of the fun, too, for me, trying to figure out what was going on.
Too much setup speculation got me into trouble, but, like I said, I was trying to get some understanding about what was happening.

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