Open 847 - Trust Fall [Game Over]

[humaneatingmonkey]

if anyone else thinks enchant will flip scum, i would like to hear it too

[chavela]

and it’s not like enchant always plays that way - my experience of town!enchant was much more downhill then that, but idk if the difference can be explained by the setup, potentially can

[Meuh]

HEM/Enchant sounds fine to me

[Kuriyama]

this might be a really dumb reason but i kind of townread enchant for being not funny

[chavela]

like it’d be every bit if not more on me because the logical course of action after you trust offered me would be for me to immediately focus in on who should be trust offered next but mostly i feel like i’ve been scratching my head

which i guess it’s probably noteworthy that while you were aware of this as you said more or less this when talking about mechanical plays, you still suggested other pairs shortly thereafter

though maybe could be due to my previous objections to quick mechanical chains

feel so tangled

[Meuh]

Are this have refering to "i want to stay and help making pairs"?

do you think i'm basic? or are you not interested in talking about reads?
or both, both is fine. i'm a bit basic so this isn't an edged question.

Not really. This is harsh land.
Only you can help self.

Honestly I laughed for like a minute straight after reading this post, Enchant is a master of comedy

[humaneatingmonkey]

you said more or less this when talking about mechanical plays

the mechanical thingy happened. i trusted you. that got us a lot of mechanical info.
the bugs x enchant was a bit. it wasn't going to happen.

[humaneatingmonkey]

first, because bugspray is public on enchant being scum and trusting them would be ??? if enchant is town.
second, because if both are scum, it won't happen.
if bugs is scum, and enchant is town, then i dont think enchant would have accepted it as she was giving signals that she suspects bugs.

i also think that bugspray scumslipped earlier, and i do think that's valid.

[chavela]

right so it’s like, from there i should trust someone in the way you did, or, one of the existing trusts should happen,

which, well, yeah that’s still where we’re at

hmhmhm

who was scumreading the worst

[humaneatingmonkey]

kuriyama

[chavela]

if you mean the reaction to you pushing me about the readslist when you know that’s not how i work as the scumslip from bugspray,

i do not think that is alignment indicative

i think that’s more likely to come from bugspray understanding why i struggle so much with that sort of thing and my frustration regardless of alignment

[chavela]

kuriyama

oh right but then changed course after replace hm

[chavela]

i

do you think enchant is more likely to be town than the worst?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Spoiler: long thread of bugs slipping

I love fast paced games, i can't really stand still for 5 days.

Risk was not big anyway.

why did you decide that the risk was not big?

2/9

I AM RUSSIAN RULETTE CHAMPION.

trust bugspray next round

i want to run the math on this

so if we assume ench town to make this exercise not pointless and hem+shiki is town that means tomorrow trusting me is 2/7 but 2/7*2/9 is under seven percent

hem why is that a good idea because statistically it isn't

why is it smart for enchant to trust me tomorrow?
by the numbers it's less than 7% that the yolo today and then tomorrow on me is safe

bugs, this confirms to me that deep inside, you're really mafia.

i dont think town would ask why it's a good idea for anyone to trust them. you're supposed to just internalize that Enchant is not in danger by doing so. there's no danger because if you're town (1) you won't accept it if you think Enchant is scum, and (2) town!Enchant does not need to worry that you're scum because you aren't.

you're telling us that Enchant will hit scum by trusting you.

gotcha

what the fuck are you on about?

do you have an actual deeper reason or are you just looking for a gotchta?

Monke means it's always safe to be trusted. You know you are town, therefore trusting you can't damage town, unless you accept trust back and it happen to be scum.

Therefore you should't ask if this is save for you to receive trust from me, because from your perspective it should be 100% save.

i think in their phrasing, bugs is actually more concerned for your safety than theirs — because of the larger probability to hit scum lmao

yes like from my perspective it is obviously good i was trying to look at it from not my perspective when understanding the things other people say

[Kuriyama]

I don't get your point or bugs math

[chavela]

Spoiler: long thread of bugs slipping

I love fast paced games, i can't really stand still for 5 days.

Risk was not big anyway.

why did you decide that the risk was not big?

2/9

I AM RUSSIAN RULETTE CHAMPION.

trust bugspray next round

i want to run the math on this

so if we assume ench town to make this exercise not pointless and hem+shiki is town that means tomorrow trusting me is 2/7 but 2/7*2/9 is under seven percent

hem why is that a good idea because statistically it isn't

why is it smart for enchant to trust me tomorrow?
by the numbers it's less than 7% that the yolo today and then tomorrow on me is safe

bugs, this confirms to me that deep inside, you're really mafia.

i dont think town would ask why it's a good idea for anyone to trust them. you're supposed to just internalize that Enchant is not in danger by doing so. there's no danger because if you're town (1) you won't accept it if you think Enchant is scum, and (2) town!Enchant does not need to worry that you're scum because you aren't.

you're telling us that Enchant will hit scum by trusting you.

gotcha

what the fuck are you on about?

do you have an actual deeper reason or are you just looking for a gotchta?

Monke means it's always safe to be trusted. You know you are town, therefore trusting you can't damage town, unless you accept trust back and it happen to be scum.

Therefore you should't ask if this is save for you to receive trust from me, because from your perspective it should be 100% save.

i think in their phrasing, bugs is actually more concerned for your safety than theirs — because of the larger probability to hit scum lmao

yes like from my perspective it is obviously good i was trying to look at it from not my perspective when understanding the things other people say

oh this;

yeah still feel the same way about this as before

like that just comes down to whether or not you think bugspray would have done it from their perspective instead of your perspective as town, which is kinda hard to answer

[Meuh]

Is the point that Bugs shouldn’t be concerned about being partnered (if they’re town) and so by being concerned, they’re scummy? I don’t think I get it either

[chavela]

I don't get your point or bugs math

well bugspray’s ‘math’ doesn’t account for bugspray being town

which it is hard for me to tell if this was an oversight then corrected by the perspective thing

or if was simply doing it from monkey’s perspective to say monkey suggesting this was !!!

[Kuriyama]

i think bugs was just trying to show enchant was wrong by math but the math doesn't make sense to me.

also it does make sense to use math that does not assume knowledge of bugs alignment since bugs should be using math from pov of enchant as enchant does not know bugs alignment assuming enchant is town

[humaneatingmonkey]

guys let me explain

[bugspray]

the math was from enchant's perspective

[bugspray]

so if we assume ench town to make this exercise not pointless and hem+shiki is town that means tomorrow trusting me is 2/7 but 2/7*2/9 is under seven percent

so for enchant to choose another player on day one there are nine other players to select and two of them are certainly scum if enchant is town
on day one it is a 2/9

on day two there seven other players and two are scum so it's 2/7 and to get the probability of both of those being true oh i did it completely wrong it should be 1-2/7*1-2/9 to get the probability of hitting town twice and it's like 55.5repeating% assuming that we have no more town clears so i was literally already wrong

[chavela]

the math was from enchant's perspective

math is just the sequence of yolotrusts each day yeah?

were you trying to say

enchant should not be doing this? or monkey should not be suggesting this? or both?

and i guess what does that mean for alignments did/do you think?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Bugs shouldn’t be concerned about being partnered (if they’re town) and so by being concerned, they’re scummy?

yes exactly

i think it's a perspective slip where bugs didn't realize they were supposed to be town. bugs was highlighting the chance that enchant would hit mafia by trusting them. there was no chance to hit mafia if they were town.

[humaneatingmonkey]

like, what was the math for if not for discouraging the narrative that they should pair up? that's just what bugs were doing there. also, don't forget that bugs at this point thought enchant was scum. so this inquiry didn't make sense to make in a town perspective.