micro 1049: taking it bit by bit (endgame)

[kennyk]

VOTE: kennyk

Hello Titus. Nice to play with you again. Not so nice of you to directly vote me.

[Flea The Magician]

Why would I do that?
Better yet how would I do that?

your question of "do you think you will survive night one?"

felt like you were telling me you would murder us at night.(I imagine it would be a vig or a delayed day-poison?)

You would do it because you think we are mafia.


-A

I guess Flea predicting a mayhem night one might early in this game might have played a part in this, too. This to me indicated a night activity of some sorts from Fleas side (pontentially a n1 vig, too?). As far as i remember, this was mentioned earlier and so far not denied by Flea. Did fea (I hope I used the right pronoun here) forget, that fea hinted at a claim earlier and tries to deny it now?

This feels kind of strange. Not enough to put my vote there (yes, I try to be careful with my votes), but Flea is clearly on my list of possible scummies now.

Near enough for me.

The thing is I'm not going to confirm or deny anything.
I saw 2 N1 vig claims, an aesetic claim and I can't remember if the now retracted lightning rod claim was around that time.
These games are also always beautifully chaotic.

So you tell me, am I claiming something? Or am I throwing up dust against the scum to cloud who their shot should be?
Everyone on this list bar you and Ari have played with me before, everyone knows what I bring and that what I bring ebbs and flows with my mood.

Lets go back to the post you quoted, what do you see there, Kenny?

[Mistyx]

idt i really have much to add

flea maybe slightly townlean, i liked faer questioning of me

kinda waiting for titus to catch up

[kennyk]

Why would I do that?
Better yet how would I do that?

your question of "do you think you will survive night one?"

felt like you were telling me you would murder us at night.(I imagine it would be a vig or a delayed day-poison?)

You would do it because you think we are mafia.


-A

I guess Flea predicting a mayhem night one might early in this game might have played a part in this, too. This to me indicated a night activity of some sorts from Fleas side (pontentially a n1 vig, too?). As far as i remember, this was mentioned earlier and so far not denied by Flea. Did fea (I hope I used the right pronoun here) forget, that fea hinted at a claim earlier and tries to deny it now?

This feels kind of strange. Not enough to put my vote there (yes, I try to be careful with my votes), but Flea is clearly on my list of possible scummies now.

Near enough for me.

The thing is I'm not going to confirm or deny anything.
I saw 2 N1 vig claims, an aesetic claim and I can't remember if the now retracted lightning rod claim was around that time.
These games are also always beautifully chaotic.

So you tell me, am I claiming something? Or am I throwing up dust against the scum to cloud who their shot should be?
Everyone on this list bar you and Ari have played with me before, everyone knows what I bring and that what I bring ebbs and flows with my mood.

Lets go back to the post you quoted, what do you see there, Kenny?

The lightning rod claim was retraced at the time of your "mayhem post" and the ascetic claim not yet there. Both facts don't matter though (I guess), because I don't see how an ascetic could cause mayhem n1 and in the Enchant claim/retract I am not too sure which is serious and which is for the lolz.

It all looked like a hint of a claim to me. As to what your motive for that was, I am not sure. Could be throwing dust at scum. Could be you are what you hint to be and hope that scum thinks you are throwing dust at them. Could be scum throwing dust at town. ...

Going back to the post I quoted I see a conclusion that is potentially false (thanks for making me look again. Didn't see it the first time). Your question "Do you think you're going to survive N1?" could have many directions. LaL not surviving n1 could have many causes:
a) You being vig and thinking LaL is scum. (I don't see why you would ask this question if you intended to do so)
b) Any other vig having the same thought process (for example Koba, despite the holstering claim).
c) Any vig who had enough of the LaL/Koba thing and wants to get rid of at least one of them.
d) Scum getting rid of one player. (Everyone can go through her/his/their/faer own list of why scum would do this. There are too many potential options I have time for right now)

[RCEnigma]

This is going to be mayhem isn't it...

hello!

i think i know you, am i right on that?

You do know me, you also know one or two of my alts/hydras too

yeah i was pretty sure on that id guess but you asked me not to say it so i didn't

hope you've been well!

As well as I can be, Whats your thoughts so far? If memory serves you're usually pretty solid with read rates.

i think rce's entrance was scummy and i think tw has felt disengaged a scummy way

out of everyone else i got the best vibes from enchant

I have strong scumvibes out of enchant but if scum is informed I'm almost ready to lock you in as town. Can I get an expansion on your enchant read given you were the one that pointed out their claim retraction (I kind of missed that early game).

[RCEnigma]

Also want to pick your brain on if gaming the setup is possible. It can wait though.

[DkKoba]

RCE is my strongest townread to the point that if a cop claims to have a guilty on him- lim the cop first

[Flea The Magician]

Why would I do that?
Better yet how would I do that?

your question of "do you think you will survive night one?"

felt like you were telling me you would murder us at night.(I imagine it would be a vig or a delayed day-poison?)

You would do it because you think we are mafia.


-A

I guess Flea predicting a mayhem night one might early in this game might have played a part in this, too. This to me indicated a night activity of some sorts from Fleas side (pontentially a n1 vig, too?). As far as i remember, this was mentioned earlier and so far not denied by Flea. Did fea (I hope I used the right pronoun here) forget, that fea hinted at a claim earlier and tries to deny it now?

This feels kind of strange. Not enough to put my vote there (yes, I try to be careful with my votes), but Flea is clearly on my list of possible scummies now.

Near enough for me.

The thing is I'm not going to confirm or deny anything.
I saw 2 N1 vig claims, an aesetic claim and I can't remember if the now retracted lightning rod claim was around that time.
These games are also always beautifully chaotic.

So you tell me, am I claiming something? Or am I throwing up dust against the scum to cloud who their shot should be?
Everyone on this list bar you and Ari have played with me before, everyone knows what I bring and that what I bring ebbs and flows with my mood.

Lets go back to the post you quoted, what do you see there, Kenny?

The lightning rod claim was retraced at the time of your "mayhem post" and the ascetic claim not yet there. Both facts don't matter though (I guess), because I don't see how an ascetic could cause mayhem n1 and in the Enchant claim/retract I am not too sure which is serious and which is for the lolz.

It all looked like a hint of a claim to me. As to what your motive for that was, I am not sure. Could be throwing dust at scum. Could be you are what you hint to be and hope that scum thinks you are throwing dust at them. Could be scum throwing dust at town. ...

Going back to the post I quoted I see a conclusion that is potentially false (thanks for making me look again. Didn't see it the first time). Your question "Do you think you're going to survive N1?" could have many directions. LaL not surviving n1 could have many causes:
a) You being vig and thinking LaL is scum. (I don't see why you would ask this question if you intended to do so)
b) Any other vig having the same thought process (for example Koba, despite the holstering claim).
c) Any vig who had enough of the LaL/Koba thing and wants to get rid of at least one of them.
d) Scum getting rid of one player. (Everyone can go through her/his/their/faer own list of why scum would do this. There are too many potential options I have time for right now)

I have also played MBoS and other schadd games before - they're all amazing ftr and beautifully chaotic. Going back, that's 2 N1 vig claims and a retracted lightning rod claim. that's chaotic af and I still love it.

I'll go back to my intent with it.
There's 3 ways to answer it
"No, I think I'm getting vigged."
"No, I think I'm going to get NK'd."
"Yes."

Two of those tell me "This person thinks they're towny"
One tells me they're thinking they're scummy.

It also gives me some insight to the players mindset.
I mean no disrespect to Ari here but there's a Karen mindset there currently.
THEY are the victim, and everyone else is there to cause shit for them.
I've no intent to act with Ari any further as a result which is not good, it stops me attempting to solve and it stops me reevaluating if they're being set up to fall.
Which blows, honestly.

[schadd_]

slow and steady.....

vote count 1.5 !

Titus (2):

Logic and Literature, DkKoba

Kennyk (2):

RCEnigma, Titus

bugspray (1):

Mistyx

DkKoba (1):

bugspray

Logic and Literature (1):

Enchant

not voting (2):

Kennyk, Flea the Magician

with 9 alive, it takes 5 to let someone rot. day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-04-11 18:00:19)

modorator notes

• quunk

[Logic and Literature]

I have slight pangs of paranoia that the reason Titus is ok with anti-spewing directly is because her partner is located in a decent position.

However I don't think it's something we can deal with today.

-A

[Flea The Magician]

Bugs and titus - Titus especially - Whats your thoughts on the current game state?

Titus whats with the Kenny vote?

Koba you've gone quiet, whats happenin?

Dats you good? I can't work with Ari and you're quiet too :/

RCE curious about your setup spec, wanna throw it out for all to see and let Misty get there when she gets there?

[bugspray]

Bugs and titus - Titus especially - Whats your thoughts on the current game state?

confused why koba is not yeeted

[kennyk]

This is going to be mayhem isn't it...

hello!

i think i know you, am i right on that?

You do know me, you also know one or two of my alts/hydras too

yeah i was pretty sure on that id guess but you asked me not to say it so i didn't

hope you've been well!

As well as I can be, Whats your thoughts so far? If memory serves you're usually pretty solid with read rates.

i think rce's entrance was scummy and i think tw has felt disengaged a scummy way

out of everyone else i got the best vibes from enchant

I have strong scumvibes out of enchant but if scum is informed I'm almost ready to lock you in as town. Can I get an expansion on your enchant read given you were the one that pointed out their claim retraction (I kind of missed that early game).

I guess I need help here. Why would you lock mistyx as town if scum is informed? What has the informed part to do with it?

[DkKoba]

Bugs and titus - Titus especially - Whats your thoughts on the current game state?

Titus whats with the Kenny vote?

Koba you've gone quiet, whats happenin?

Dats you good? I can't work with Ari and you're quiet too :/

RCE curious about your setup spec, wanna throw it out for all to see and let Misty get there when she gets there?

I didn't go quiet, its just by comparison my activity level looks like its quiet

[kennyk]

Also want to pick your brain on if gaming the setup is possible. It can wait though.

I guess you are referring to mistyxs page one post about the best strategy if everyone is a n1 vig (?).

I have put some thought in this, too, but I am not getting to a solution that would end in desaster. The best way to deal with our skills in a 7 n1 vigs vs. 2 scum scenario (if we really are in such. Remember that there were non vig claims and the 7 vs. 2 isn't 100 % for sure either) has to involve some kind of predesigned targeting. If every vig shoots at whomever they think is most likely scum or even not at all, it would end in chaos and the outcome would be more or less random.

What if everyone shoots the player above him in the players list? Like I shoot Koba, LaL shoots me ... This would work, if we really are all vigs and scum has no adjacent spots on the list (or gets there by limming the player between them, if they are one apart) as the two players above scum would survive the night. Those two must be town. If the two scummies are neighbors on our players list it is 1 vs. 1 on day 2. Apart from the fact that scum could nightkill that player it will be endgamed anyway. And than there is this multitude of possible outcomes when there are other roles present.

I don't like the odds of this at all. No I didn't calculate them. It is just that it feels too far away from 100 % success to be good.

There seem to be better odds if we get to 1 on 1 duels. We elim one player today and design four pairs where the two players are to shoot each other tonight. If we really are 7 vigs vs. 2 scum and the lim one scum this strategy is game over for scum. If we lim one of 7 vigs we have to be lucky that none of the four pairings consists of the two scummies. The problems in this pattern is, that there could be non vig townies out there and that we need to find a pairing system. Finding this system could well be influenced by scum. Is 1-2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-8 better than 1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5?

I can't think of any pattern that would help us getting way better odds. But maybe mistyx is better at logic and/or I missed something.

[DkKoba]

Or we just play mafia

[Enchant]

Also want to pick your brain on if gaming the setup is possible. It can wait though.

I guess you are referring to mistyxs page one post about the best strategy if everyone is a n1 vig (?).

I have put some thought in this, too, but I am not getting to a solution that would end in desaster. The best way to deal with our skills in a 7 n1 vigs vs. 2 scum scenario (if we really are in such. Remember that there were non vig claims and the 7 vs. 2 isn't 100 % for sure either) has to involve some kind of predesigned targeting. If every vig shoots at whomever they think is most likely scum or even not at all, it would end in chaos and the outcome would be more or less random.

What if everyone shoots the player above him in the players list? Like I shoot Koba, LaL shoots me ... This would work, if we really are all vigs and scum has no adjacent spots on the list (or gets there by limming the player between them, if they are one apart) as the two players above scum would survive the night. Those two must be town. If the two scummies are neighbors on our players list it is 1 vs. 1 on day 2. Apart from the fact that scum could nightkill that player it will be endgamed anyway. And than there is this multitude of possible outcomes when there are other roles present.

I don't like the odds of this at all. No I didn't calculate them. It is just that it feels too far away from 100 % success to be good.

There seem to be better odds if we get to 1 on 1 duels. We elim one player today and design four pairs where the two players are to shoot each other tonight. If we really are 7 vigs vs. 2 scum and the lim one scum this strategy is game over for scum. If we lim one of 7 vigs we have to be lucky that none of the four pairings consists of the two scummies. The problems in this pattern is, that there could be non vig townies out there and that we need to find a pairing system. Finding this system could well be influenced by scum. Is 1-2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-8 better than 1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5?

I can't think of any pattern that would help us getting way better odds. But maybe mistyx is better at logic and/or I missed something.

Imagine all scum are bulletproof.

[kennyk]

Or we just play mafia

Like someone mentioned in this thread (too lazy to look it up), I am in general taking more of a mech approach. That's why I think about possible game winning strategies a lot (I admit often more than about reads on players) because it is a purely logic approach.

But in this case we have to play mafia. Maybe d2 will get us to a winning strategy (if there is an "us" left).

[kennyk]

Imagine all scum are bulletproof.

That would really be a twist.

[Flea The Magician]

I strongly doubt everyone is a vigilante, because that is breakable just by getting everyone to shoot one above/below them.

I wouldn't put it past scum to be BP.

But we do have a claimed asectic.

[kennyk]

I strongly doubt everyone is a vigilante, because that is breakable just by getting everyone to shoot one above/below them.

I wouldn't put it past scum to be BP.

But we do have a claimed asectic.

As I pointed out that this breaking strategy only works if scum is scattered in the players list. If let's say Koba and I were scum (Just for this example. This is not a claim ). The only players not shot by vigs in a shoot-the-player-above-you would be Koba and worst/Titus (the players list needs an update). This alone would be endgamed in favor for scum. And with the "we each shoot the one above us"-scheme known to Koba and me, we would very likely nightkill Titus. Which only leaves Koba. Definitely not a town breaking strategy.

And I also mentioned the claims which, if true, would destroy it. And the possible bulletproof-scenario totally breaks the breaking tactics (one BP scum would be enough).

[Titus]

Dats thinks this is just how town!flea treats him.

I cannot break the sus and it's so frustrating for both of us ngl.

VOTE: kennyk

Do tell, why?

It's a tonal vote mostly.

[Titus]

Titus, I'm sorry you replaced into a scum slot that buried themselves pretty badly. Thanks for being a warm body in the slot, though. I know you are trying to get a mislim without spewing too much, but I will be shielding Kenny at all costs here.

Whiteknight or bad?

[Titus]

VOTE: kennyk

Hello Titus. Nice to play with you again. Not so nice of you to directly vote me.

This awkward. Too kind given gamestate.

[Titus]

I saw 2 N1 vig claims, an aesetic claim and I can't remember if the now retracted lightning rod claim was around that time.
These games are also always beautifully chaotic.

I've seen these and feel it relevant to state I am also an N1 vig.