micro 1049: taking it bit by bit (endgame)

[RCEnigma]

I like everyone who's posted so far except for Flea.

flea why don't you like mayhem?

-A

Don't take my thoughts before I think them.

[RCEnigma]

DkKoba is lock town though. They could get day guiltied and still be town.

[RCEnigma]

Just on the strength that we've had this vig conversation and it checks out , never see them coming out with the claim as scum with just the info that a n1 big exists in the setup.

[RCEnigma]

I'm game VOTE: Rcenigma

No solid reason. Felt good about every slot that speculated on setup. Already explained koba, counter vig claims are natural, lightning rod is a natural claim. Flea just kind of came in as the odd fairy out.

Also I don't read TW till he's town.

[RCEnigma]

VOTE: Kennyk

[RCEnigma]

So this game is giving me purge vibes plus a lightning rod.

Yo lightningrod are you compulsive?

[RCEnigma]

67 is super weird but ok UNVOTE:

[RCEnigma]

I'm game VOTE: Rcenigma

No solid reason. Felt good about every slot that speculated on setup. Already explained koba, counter vig claims are natural, lightning rod is a natural claim. Flea just kind of came in as the odd fairy out.

Also I don't read TW till he's town.

strongly dislike this post

self vote reads gambity and tw read feels like an afterthought where it shouldn't be

Well yes, but also no.

[RCEnigma]

it is infinitely better for town!vig you to shoot us, become conftown cuz there's no chance of scum vig in a closed micro, then to push us, holster and then get yeeted the next day because we flip town.

so wtf are you even talking about with holstering

-A

What are you actually arguing here though? That scum!DK first post claims n1 vig so they can???

[RCEnigma]

it is infinitely better for town!vig you to shoot us, become conftown cuz there's no chance of scum vig in a closed micro, then to push us, holster and then get yeeted the next day because we flip town.

so wtf are you even talking about with holstering

-A

What are you actually arguing here though? That scum!DK first post claims n1 vig so they can???

put yourself in Koba's shoes

if you're a vig and you are sure L/L is mafia, why would you not shoot them at night?

-A

Because vig shooting night 1 is shit play. Whether you hit or not.

[RCEnigma]

Vig is negative utility for town until town has the risk of losing majority. Then it has a win or done chance to make an impact on the game.

[RCEnigma]

I've had this very conversation in a previous game where (I think?) Vig hit scum early in the game. But we're both in the camp that its incorrect play for vig to heroshoot.

DK's stance is extremely consistent with previous thoughts shared on this topic and is a big reason the play just points to town.

[RCEnigma]

Outside of that, what does scum'DK gain from claiming n1 vig?

You could make an informed argument but I don't see what info scum could have that makes that an ok out the gate claim.

Or

That it's a power play to strongarm town. But even then it's not like they are influencing anyone to blind sheep. Whether it's tempting or not.

[RCEnigma]

how does it make more sense for koba to not shoot me and instead push me to be eliminated?

it's literally the same result if koba succeeds

either way

- I die and flip town.

except if Koba vigs me they get to be conftown because scum vig is unlikely but if Koba shitpushes me dead they get BoPed the next day.

Well then you (as town) die to koba vig (town) plus the night kill (town) and the elim could hit (town).

Now I'm not so good with numbers but all that equals bad time to me.

Or DK can holster and we play Mafia.

[RCEnigma]

Outside of that, what does scum'DK gain from claiming n1 vig?

towncred

What happens if there happens to be an actual n1 vig out there that doesn't ascribe to the idea that vigs shouldn't shoot. Why would scum even invite that?

[RCEnigma]

how does it make more sense for koba to not shoot me and instead push me to be eliminated?

it's literally the same result if koba succeeds

either way

- I die and flip town.

except if Koba vigs me they get to be conftown because scum vig is unlikely but if Koba shitpushes me dead they get BoPed the next day.

Well then you (as town) die to koba vig (town) plus the night kill (town) and the elim could hit (town).

Now I'm not so good with numbers but all that equals bad time to me.

Or DK can holster and we play Mafia.

let's say we mislim someone today

we go into night 8p - 2scum with Town!koba and Town!LL

Scenario 1: Koba holsters, scum shoot outside me/Koba because scum want koba to continue tunneling me

we wake up at 7p, Koba hardshoves me dead - I flip town - we wake up tomm at 5P, Koba is a easy misyeet for game over.


Scenario 2: Koba shoots me at Night

we wake up at 6P, Koba's basically conftown because confed Vig and can control thread and try to solve for last 2 scum.

Scenario 2 is

much better

for town than Scenario 1.

Trying to hand wave it is just absolutely nonsensical

-A

Like....we can play Mafia. Nothing is stopping either of you from hunting scum. If you're both town then both of you living through the night is fine?

[RCEnigma]

well i never exactly called flea suspicious. just that i found other slots townie and not flea. Honestly I wasn't a fan of you pushing me to vote flea off the back of it...so i didn't.

I dont buy that you think the team is me + flea but you're voting me at the moment so I kinda see where this is going.

[RCEnigma]

cool. what prompted you to say flea's post stood out then? what do you think of the way L&L spoted the same thing?

dont try and outguess me I'm magic

I'm not playing guess which meta level I'm on. I don't think we spotted the same thing, just reached the same conclusion that flea didn't fit in with the rest of the opening posts.

Was probably +town for LaL on a gut call but flea is a lhf push early from my experience.

Also not really pressed to sort dk/LaL as a 1 and 1 trade since I'm not sure if I find LaL actually scummy or just think snap pushing DK as scum for scumreading them is silly. Just an aside to say I'm giving the benefit of the doubt at this immediate moment.

[RCEnigma]

I also think applying the rule of 3 to a MBoS game is somewhat silly but if we have a third n1 vig, one of the three is probably a mafia vigilante or at least informed scum (last I knew schadd really liked doing neat things with informdd roles)

Can you flesh this out a bit?

[RCEnigma]

I also think applying the rule of 3 to a MBoS game is somewhat silly but if we have a third n1 vig, one of the three is probably a mafia vigilante or at least informed scum (last I knew schadd really liked doing neat things with informdd roles)

Can you flesh this out a bit?

oh my god finally a townie to talk to

Lol can't be around long.

[RCEnigma]

I also think applying the rule of 3 to a MBoS game is somewhat silly but if we have a third n1 vig, one of the three is probably a mafia vigilante or at least informed scum (last I knew schadd really liked doing neat things with informdd roles)

Can you flesh this out a bit?

rule of 3 is like, design theory, that if 3 of ~a thing~ is present in a game, one of the things is scum.
i don't really think it's necessarily true and i think schadd knows enough to design around it! but i'm also just putting it out there that instantly treating vig claims as town may not be prudent.

if there are 2 n1 vigs, i wouldn't be surprised if scum are informed of that. schadd_ does informed roles more creatively than like, honestly any setup designer i can think of? and i think scum being informed of there being multiple n1 vigs opens potential for dayplay e.g. claiming a n1 vig who will be holstering as a matter of policy.

i'm aware i'm explicitly referencing koba's play here and i literally don't care about their broader meta opinion of vigs. just putting it out there.

Yeah no I get what you were saying but I don't understand what you're meaning.

What does claiming vig gain that not claiming it doesn't if scum are already informed? Why can't there be 3 n1 vigs and scum still be informed? Why can't scum have n1 bp?

Basically I don't see the speculation as anything other than subtle discrediting koba so I want to see what you are actually getting at if that isn't the case.

[RCEnigma]

rce you're probably closer to the outlier there because i think your unabashedness and scepticism are more likely to come from you as town. i think you're still loosely within that group.

My read on koba isn't influenced by kobas read on me.

The prolonged fight with LaL is annoying to parse it's scum indicative for Koba. Not saying that can't do it as scum but it's also in their town repertoire.

[RCEnigma]

But I don't agree with his first assumption. If scum really is informed and they know, there is one or more n1 vigs out there claiming n1 vig could get the claiming player some town cred.

Or shot.

[RCEnigma]

you'll also notice i'm not voting a claimed vig. i feel like you might be attributing a greater weight to 291 that isn't there. just proceed warily.

This has aged.

Also don't think I'm still voting Kenny?

[RCEnigma]

Gonna be honest I wouldn't mind a policy on bugspray, it's unacceptable play. But I'd yeet Enchant on the same grounds.

[RCEnigma]

I checked out after 497 but I don't really wanna lim bug here.

Not because of anything they've said but the wagons iffy.

HURT: TW Slot

[RCEnigma]

wack pivot

Ok.

[RCEnigma]

Enchant: the voting feels very opportunistic to protect Duck!scum partner. I didn't like the "joke" roleclaim and then the "unclaim" - it kind of felt like he claimed something he wasn't supposed to and then he was like "oops nevermind!"

Funny enough I thought you voting TW was to spook DK and others off the wagon and shield there. I think the timing and reason for the TW read check out though.

[RCEnigma]

This is going to be mayhem isn't it...

hello!

i think i know you, am i right on that?

You do know me, you also know one or two of my alts/hydras too

yeah i was pretty sure on that id guess but you asked me not to say it so i didn't

hope you've been well!

As well as I can be, Whats your thoughts so far? If memory serves you're usually pretty solid with read rates.

i think rce's entrance was scummy and i think tw has felt disengaged a scummy way

out of everyone else i got the best vibes from enchant

I have strong scumvibes out of enchant but if scum is informed I'm almost ready to lock you in as town. Can I get an expansion on your enchant read given you were the one that pointed out their claim retraction (I kind of missed that early game).

[RCEnigma]

Also want to pick your brain on if gaming the setup is possible. It can wait though.

[RCEnigma]

I strongly doubt everyone is a vigilante, because that is breakable just by getting everyone to shoot one above/below them.

I wouldn't put it past scum to be BP.

But we do have a claimed asectic.

Well it all really depends on the amount of vigs that town has. But there is the possibility that it works out for town to shoot in pairings or blocks. Generally speaking.

[RCEnigma]

I have been prodded. Misty ignored me asking about their reads and ignored the possible setup spec.

Kinda what I have been waiting on. I'm also n1 Vig, there is a degree of cross shooting possible or a safer route with like, half shot half holster that gets us to mElo tomorrow. Even if we don't hit scum.

[RCEnigma]

Eh I'd rather vote you out and formulate a n1 plan but noted.

[RCEnigma]

Assuming all of bug/Kenny/lal are vanilla (ascetic vanilla same diff)

DkKoba
Kennyk
Logic and Literature (Datisi + Aristeia)
Flea the Magician
RCEnigma
bugspray
Enchant
Mistyx
Titus the worst

Shooting up leaves : Kenny/dk/myself which I don't hate
Shooting down : lal/flea/enchant

The problem lies in - scum is not forced to adhere if they have a vanilla slot above or below -- or if scum is doubled up in the player list.

We go straight to elo unless all vigs holster and I'm going on the assumption not all town play to town wincon so there will be shots anyway.

At least 1 scum is claiming n1 vig so vig cross shooting probably gets us to 2v1 only if we no lim today. Town double stacking on town puts us on evens. Scum double stacking doesn't matter if they're still a vig target. But we don't want evens regardless.

[RCEnigma]

So like I guess my first draft plan would be

DK - Titus cross shoot
RCE - Enchant cross shoot
Flea - Mistyx cross shoot

Kenny/LaL/Bug in eLo
Town left alive with a scum dead is an added win but unlikely. I don't really care about wifom if it put scum in a losing position.
Town left alive with a town dead is whatever, rogue vigs are a thing but it validates shots taken within a pairing.

[RCEnigma]

I thank you for your contribution.

[RCEnigma]

I'm fine with mountainous. I'm in the same boat Koba is when it comes to vigs, they can confirm. I just don't think everyone that's claimed vig is willing to holster.

I get it being the best option. Agreed. What's the next best option? Open to....hearing anything. From anyone.

[RCEnigma]

I didn't make any of that plan with BP in mind. But idk how plausible bp is. If the setup is designed so that town can lose night 1 it is what it is though.

[RCEnigma]

I referenced purge which had similar mechanics to this game in that most everyone had a shot. Scum also had a bp but the plan to shoot in pairs only really worked with 1 scum off the board.

[RCEnigma]

So like I guess my first draft plan would be

DK - Titus cross shoot
RCE - Enchant cross shoot
Flea - Mistyx cross shoot

Kenny/LaL/Bug in eLo
Town left alive with a scum dead is an added win but unlikely. I don't really care about wifom if it put scum in a losing position.
Town left alive with a town dead is whatever, rogue vigs are a thing but it validates shots taken within a pairing.

This plan seems to lack a scum kill. If there was no scum kill, I'd partially be ok with this.

Ah right

[RCEnigma]

Mystyx, L and L, Titus, Enchant is 50% scum for me then at the moment.

I am happy with this POE

-A

In reverse order, enchant/Titus/LaL/Mistyx as most to least likely scum.

[RCEnigma]

VOTE: Titus enchant tomorrow.

[RCEnigma]

I was toying with the idea of gambiting and claiming the L and L shot but I holstered.

I don't remember why I thought Mistyx was town if scum was informed of n1 vig being present. There has to be informed scum somewhere though. It's gonna take some brainpower that I don't have right now to figure out what this setup even is or how to navigate it. Like Neapolitans being named townies makes sense and doesn't. Because it's also possible scum was informed Neapolitan exists and not vig.

I buy enchant is vig at least.

[RCEnigma]

ENIGMA HAVE ME AS TOPSCUMREAD BUT DOESH'T SHOT ME BECAUSE?

VOTE: Enigma

We're at MeLo already and that's with most vigs NOT shooting. We already went over why vig is bad for town yesterday....like the whole first half of the game.

The only time I have ever hero shot as vig was a 100% read and it was also 100% a bad play.

[RCEnigma]

I'm still here, I have thoughts. Some of them are about the game even. But holiday stuff first. I'll try and get something out soon.

[RCEnigma]

My heart says FL is scum here. My head says Kenny did enough to show town and DK's read confidence there coupled with my read is enough to keep me from voting them here.

HOWEVER. If FL is scum here I think it's with bugspray. I remember that being my initial gutping at daystart. I don't know when the gear changed, probably sometime after clearing enchant from the elim pool.

Flea is still too townread and on a 50/50 between bug and misty I'm going bug moreso off the back of the fact bug is more likely the partner of either one of misty/FL.

[RCEnigma]

To clarify why I am iffy on FL. I felt his day start agenda was playing towards me by tying me to Mistyx in order for me to vote there.
Why would that make you vote Mistyx you might ask? Because i know as town I can't be partnered with Mistyx but to prove that to town I'd have to vote there. FL could throw added suspicion on partner bugs as a waiting move so to speak and flip to Mistyx when momentum was there.

I do want to reread there interactions but like I said I'm kinda trusting koba on the Kenny read and I know I am always always going to be suspicious of FL because I know they can easily pull the wool over my eyes.

[RCEnigma]

Too should be A.

[RCEnigma]

FL I still feel honeypotted.

[RCEnigma]

Uhhh. Ok

[RCEnigma]

I forget what honeypotted means exactly, but have an idea.

And I feel you know exactly how to get me to do the town read on you, so I do have paranoia.

Mystyx's last post was a good catch if you are scum.

Part of me is a little worried RCE and Mystyx are scum together waiting for someone to vote Bugspray here.

Yeah I kinda townread them for that. It's something small enough that town would think is a possible gotchya but scum wouldn't really bother with.

Which is troubling in its own right.

[RCEnigma]

The townread is troubling not the perceived gotchya.

[RCEnigma]

If the team is like flea/FL I'm gonna flip a table. VOTE: Bug

[RCEnigma]

If flea is town scum are already bussing bug. Which is a decent starting point to go over for whoever is left alive tomorrow.

[RCEnigma]

Oh stop you're gonna make me unvote

[RCEnigma]

With flea posting I'm confident we've hit the mark on bug.

[RCEnigma]

Yeah sounds about right. Lol mad I caught FL doing exactly what I thought scum!him would do and still let him do it.

[RCEnigma]

Imo,
0 or 2 vigs needed to shot. Not just me.

Seems like a personal decision was made.

[RCEnigma]

I dunno about LandL but Enchant for sure. I was ready to go into day 2 burying enchant until the vig stuffs.

[RCEnigma]

You guys weren't only informed of Neapolitan existing I take it.

[RCEnigma]

Nah, dk was the obvious nk.

[RCEnigma]

If like bug was the nk then maybe I buy into an LandL scum world

[RCEnigma]

In retrospect we should have limmed in the vig pool and assigned a vig each to shoot in a pair with a non vig claim.

I was just afraid we run into a bp or n1 jk or something to throw it out of wack.

[RCEnigma]

If like bug was the nk then maybe I buy into an LandL scum world

why would I NK bugs when bugs is mech-townreading me

Actually wasn't thinking about bugs role. In my head a random kill like bug makes my paranoia higher on all slots minus dk so it would have been easier to convince me. I don't think I bite that LandL kills dk as scum there mostly because of the noise generation being a plus for scum.