Mini 695 - Futurama Mafia - Over

[farside22]

This vote count is brought to you by the Amazonia:
Come to Amazonia all you men. Death by snoo-snoo is the way to go!

Dukes 2 votes: (pacman281292, Zorblag)

Not voting:

dukes
GhostWriter
kloud1516
LlamaFluff
Jahudo
wolframnhart
Drunken Piper
Porochaz

Day 2 Deadline Nov 18th 4:00pm PST
With 10 alive it will take 6 to lynch.

[Zorblag]

Having re-read my own stuff and a few others', I will start with ]b]Unvote[/b]. I wanted to hear Zorblag's argument for voting for me (so in that sense, saying "OMGUS" was the probe), and I've heard it. Hopefully I can make sense of this a little more with this post.

What did you learn about my vote yesterday that I hadn't said yesterday? The only thing that I said that related to it today before making it was:

I think I made it clear in my play yesterday that I found Dukes to be suspicious. I still find that to be the case. One more thing that I didn't like from yesterday but haven't commented on is that part of his end of day post there. I don't at all like someone claiming vanilla townie with no pressure. If he is town I'm not going to believe other role claims he makes now so if he's lying he's screwing himself. If he's telling the truth then he's making it easier for the scum to get the power roles as they don't have to worry about focusing on him.

I'm going to put my

Vote: Duke

again today. It was supposed to be a pressure vote yesterday but with Xtoxm gone he's now the one I actually do find to be the most scummy.

Your claim of no special role came after my vote had been cast yesterday so the only thing that I potentially added was that it was meant to be a pressure vote. As the lynch of Xtoxm was more or less a foregone conclusion and I wasn't opposed to it happening eventually what else could the vote have been?

Beyond Dukes I know we're not going to hear anything from Pacman281292 for the next couple days so I'll wait for him to get back and reply to what people have asked him. LlamaFluff is trying to use the little interaction we had yesterday to deduce something but I'm not sold on the idea that any of the reactions he's focusing on. Well, I suppose I also think that Duke's was suspicious but I found the reactions of Kloud1516 and Wolframnhart to be trying to cope with the bizarre Xtoxm play rather than scummy seeming to me.

I agree with Drunken Piper that we need to hear more from GhostWriter (or his replacement if it comes to that.) Jahudo does seem to be trying to take in all the information we've to to work with; I like that.

@Porochaz: I realize why we lynched as quickly as we did. What I'm trying to argue about us doing to quickly is perhaps summed up well by:

...trying to come up with a way that Xtoxm could be a non-scum role.

X wasn't scum, he was third party. He was anti-town, of course, but not scum. My main reason for not voting him was for this reason. We need to find scum and

day 1 ended before we got very far at all on that subject.

At this point it's neither here nor there though. We're in the state we are so I'll drop it and focus on figuring out who the scum are.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Dukes]

What do you mean by "since my train of though appears to be on a good track?"

Just that most of what I've thrown out there has been dismissed, for better or worse, as "bad logic". I'm kind of excited I've finally got a good argument for once.

Zorblag: But that's just IT. You listed a reason for re-voting that got to me. Again, trying to work my way around different methods of play, that's all. Plus, it's pretty clear from how you've addressed others that keeping my vote on you is a mistake. As of now, I'm not sure where to go other than not at me.

And with that, I'll just re-iterate that Pacman is my prime suspect and wait for him to return.

[Dukes]

EBWOP: Okay, "You listed a reason that got to me" makes no sense. I meant to say: "You listed a reason for re-voting that made sense to me." NOW I'll be quieter.

[Porochaz]

@Porochaz: I realize why we lynched as quickly as we did. What I'm trying to argue about us doing to quickly is perhaps summed up well by:

...trying to come up with a way that Xtoxm could be a non-scum role.

X wasn't scum, he was third party. He was anti-town, of course, but not scum. My main reason for not voting him was for this reason. We need to find scum and

day 1 ended before we got very far at all on that subject.

At this point it's neither here nor there though. We're in the state we are so I'll drop it and focus on figuring out who the scum are.

I find day 1 doesnt give you much anyway unless someone slips up, then they are a good day 1 lynch. Looking back on it, we already had a good day 1 lynch from Xtoxm slipping up. I dont think we would of found or discovered much more letting night fall was a better idea than dragging on the day with question without any basis and discussing the nightkill that happened (or failed to)

So lets discuss then...

[Porochaz]

Sorry I got mixed up with my other game, Gorrad died.

Therefore we have someone who picked up on the breadcrumb
(as earlier folk said not a wise idea to discuss this and since I think its unlikely Ill leave it)
or we have someone who went for a seniority lynch

As to my feelings currently over the past few pages I'm going to disagree with wolf, I dont think Llama was being tunnel visioned. He made a case on who he thought was scummy and whilst I dont feel its worth a vote yet, I do agree with him. I dont feel he should of had to make a townie/scummy summary of everyone, but if he felt ok doing it then fine.

[kloud1516]

First off, happy birthday, Zorblag.

Secondly:

Beyond Dukes I know we're not going to hear anything from Pacman281292 for the next couple days so I'll wait for him to get back and reply to what people have asked him. LlamaFluff is trying to use the little interaction we had yesterday to deduce something but I'm not sold on the idea that any of the reactions he's focusing on. Well, I suppose I also think that Duke's was suspicious

but I found the reactions of Kloud1516

and Wolframnhart

to be trying to cope with the bizarre Xtoxm play rather than scummy seeming to me.

And what exactly did you find scummy about it? It helps to elaborate, so that players know where your suspicions/case may be coming from. This makes them easier to address, at least in my opinion it does.

If you are referring to me not knowing exactly what to think of the whole "X: I am SK, which means Poro is Mafia Role Cop" situation, then I would like to point you to my posts on page 8 (193 and 194) that address this same topic in detail. I will respond more in-depth once you clarify a little more.

[Zorblag]

kloud1516, I think that you're misreading what I've written. I'm saying that I didn't find your actions to be particularly scummy. I didn't find Wolframnhart's actions to be particularly scummy. I thought the two of you were reacting in a more reasonable way to what Xtoxm was doing.

Dukes on the other hand I did find more suspicious because he seemed to be sitting on the fence with his FoS of both Porochaz and Xtoxm and then he went with the one who was getting more support for a lynch. At the time I took it to be opportunism. I've actually grown a bit more sympathetic about it possibly being a case of following the idea that Porochaz and Xtoxm being scum with some sort of crazy bussing action which he has since dropped as he thinks it less reasonable. In any case, his one the one reaction that I felt was scummy of the three in question.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[wolframnhart]

FoS Dukes

Questions for you Dukes:

I think I'll UnFoS: Poro for now. Re-reading my own argument and recap:

1. Poro sounds like he got lucky, or
2. Poro is a day-cop, which is not universally a scum ability, or
3. My conspiracy theory is right.

I rank these in order of likelihood. Admittedly, I sounded more paranoid than I should've. But we'll see. In the meantime, shouldn't we work on taking out the person who is wearing a big neon sign saying "I AM SCUM"?

Confirm Vote: Xtoxm

1) Why did you feel the need to do a confirm vote on Xtoxm? There was no reason for it, and you had stated where you stood on his case.

I hate day starts -- a stab in the dark never helps if it can be avoided -- and would prefer a No Lynch here, to be honest. So for now, I'll sit back and wait.

I never understood starting with a shot in the dark. Shouldn't we give the Cop a chance to find something instead of pulling a name out of a hat that, for all we know, is the Cop?

I mean, I'm willing to do a lynch for certain if we come up with ironclad evidence, but for now, screw it. All My Circuits is on.

So, to the game. As a matter of first recourse, if I had to make a blind stab at who gets the next rope, I'd guess either Jahudo, Zorblag, or pacman. Not because I have any hard evidence yet -- though if anyone does, I'd like to hear it -- but because Xtoxm confessed scummie and they still voted for someone else.

2)You have stated twice now about blind stabs against people (unless there is evidence against them). What about a real case against someone? Why does it have to be evidence someone else brings up?

3)Why are you so willing to sit back and wait?

[kloud1516]

kloud1516, I think that you're misreading what I've written. I'm saying that I didn't find your actions to be particularly scummy. I didn't find Wolframnhart's actions to be particularly scummy. I thought the two of you were reacting in a more reasonable way to what Xtoxm was doing.

Okay. The phrasing of the bolded section made me think otherwise. My apologies.

[Dukes]

1. Because it seemed like people were getting derailed. They were arguing over whether Poro was or wasn't a scum player. Meanwhile, a REAL scum player was sitting there needing to be lynched.

2. And...
3. Because I have no ironclad evidence, I have nothing more than a random suspicion, and every time I suggest something I become more and more suspicious in everyone's minds. So, as both a townie and as a player, it's in my best interest to shut up and let the investigation go the way it's supposed to.

I believe Pacman is the most likely scum at this point due to his "bomb/jester" explanation. But he won't be around for two more days. So I'm not sure what my next act should be, especially since every other thought I've had seems to turn people against me.

So I'll ask you now: what do you want from me?

[Jahudo]

@Drunken Piper: I'd be interested to hear some analysis from you. You appear to be keeping up with the game but I don't feel as though you're as directly involved.

@Dukes:

GW is quiet and Pacman is away, but it's too soon to do a Lurk-Lynch.

If you want to pressure them, do so. But why speculate about a lynch over someone that doesn't post? When is that a good idea?

Isn't one of the classic beginner's scumtells to say nothing and let go with the flow, knowing "the flow" is mathematically more likely to lead to a townie? Again, as you speculated, this may be a pacing issue.

How was pacman doing this exactly? He didn't go with the flow and vote for the confirmed scum, but like you said looked at the possibility of jester. Do you read it differently than him looking out for town's best interests?

@porochaz: I feel that alot of your posts deal with the whole role cop business and the SK. If you think Llama is not tunnelvisioned, do you think he makes a good point and its worth any other questions at this time? What other current suspicions are valid and which if any are BS?

@Zorblag: Looking back I see where you make the read on Dukes sitting on the fence. He went from FoSing X and poro to voting X after several people posted disagreeing with the bussing possibility which we was putting forward. These people also believed X was SK and were more likely to vote him.

Also: Dukes says that poro claimed X was SK. Dukes post sound like he either misread that poro was officially claiming himself or Dukes was trying to imply this and that's where his suspicion comes in. Dukes didn't believe there was such a thing about a day town investigator whatever role.

Another thing: Dukes goes after pacman for thinking about the jester and says that jesters can't be in a game like this, 24 players maybe but not 12.

@Dukes: If you understand setup roles like this then no newbie card for you. I also think that this setup talk and talk about your own role is not a substitute for scumhunting and you've used it for poro and pacman so far.

FoS: Dukes

[Dukes]

Yeah, I read it differently, and here's why. Voting for a known Threat To The Town is not "going with the flow". It is necessary. I also misread all the chaos and thought poro had confirmed cop.

I'm focusing on myself because I have to defend myself. I'm being accused left and right.

Okay, let's look at what's going on here: I still don't understand Llama's going after wolf. I also think Pacman is coming up with a very lame excuse for not voting for a Known Threat. And yeah, I've been scattershot... but it's early. I can't find any patterns, so I'm throwing things at the wall to see whether any of them make sense.

Poro did claim X was SK, but did so in jest. X then said there must be a day cop. Everyone then began discussing the possibility that there was one. I had yet to play a game where there was a day cop.

Basically, I got off to a hideous start here and need to recover a bit. So I'll take some time off and re-read to see if I can get a lead outside of Pacman, which is where my thoughts lie.

[Drunken Piper]

Since X’s play was quite bad,
Day 2, feels like another Day 1.5, very sad.

(Sip), question.

I believe Pacman is the most likely scum at this point due to his "bomb/jester" explanation. But he won't be around for two more days. So I'm not sure what my next act should be, especially since every other thought I've had seems to turn people against me.

why would Pac be more likely scum with this explanation? If he were mafia with X I would understand that reasoning..but X was a SK...he was alone....so why is Pac more likely scum?

@Drunken Piper: I'd be interested to hear some analysis from you. You appear to be keeping up with the game but I don't feel as though you're as directly involved.

Becaue of X's shitty play yesterday, today really is Day 1.5. Nothing was really developed yesterday. This is why bandwagons are great day 1. We see who jumped where, why, and how often. this did not occur because of the Poro/X flaking incident. the only thing that came out of yesterday was fingering pointing about Poro either being a role cop or people setting up for his lynch today.

Gorrad's lynch (which has already been discussed) was either an experience kill or someone pick up on the "breadcrumb".

I want to hear from ghost...I have asked questions and gave him a warning. He has picked up his prod, yet still not posted...actively lurking. I encourage everyone to meta ghost...he frequently does this as scum.

vote Ghost

......

will remove if replaced, but have a feeling he is going to show up to post just enough

[Porochaz]

@porochaz: I feel that alot of your posts deal with the whole role cop business and the SK. If you think Llama is not tunnelvisioned, do you think he makes a good point and its worth any other questions at this time? What other current suspicions are valid and which if any are BS?

I already said he made a good point I felt Wolf was scummy particularly that post Llama quoted before he (llama) wrote that post. I was involved in another discussion and don't feel it right for me to enter into another discussion which stemmed from whether I personally am scum or town.

I dont feel he should of had to make a townie/scummy

I also said this and this essentially answers the last part of your question as essentially your asking me the same thing. However having said that, I feel currently suspicion on wolf is well founded, i'm not sure about the dukes case and I don't understand the case on GW at all. Will have to look through DP posts to see what he said. Pacman I didn't understand to begin with but felt his play slightly weird, I will be watching him if he returns

(mod, prod?)

[Porochaz]

The ghost wagon is not a good wagon, I would like to see him replaced or posting more but I dont find him scummy because of lurking.

[kloud1516]

1. Because it seemed like people were getting derailed. They were arguing over whether Poro was or wasn't a scum player. Meanwhile, a REAL scum player was sitting there needing to be lynched.

2. And...
3. Because I have no ironclad evidence, I have nothing more than a random suspicion, and every time I suggest something I become more and more suspicious in everyone's minds.

So, as both a townie and as a player, it's in

my

best interest to shut up and let the investigation go the way it's supposed to.

I believe Pacman is the most likely scum at this point due to his "bomb/jester" explanation. But he won't be around for two more days.

So I'm not sure what my next act should be, especially since every other thought I've had seems to turn people against me.

So I'll ask you now: what do you want from me?

1) No. Not at all. If you are indeed town, then you should be taking into consideration what will be most beneficial for town, and not just what is in your own best interest. It is never in the best interest of the town for a player to simply shut up, as we then lose one voice in the conversation. Debate, discussion, and participation from all players is a vital aspect of scoring a town win, and this is what a townie should be working for.

2) Slight Appeal to Emotion?

vote: Dukes

[Porochaz]

it's in

my

best interest to shut up

Thanks for quoting this kloud. Your best interest is not to help town at all. Your stance is dumb as hell, by shutting up you are just gaining more attraction to yourself. This is not an individual game. It's a team game and if you are town you should know this. If you are scum then you are, in my opinion, more likely to take your chance at saving your own skin. The

my

here is whats making me want to vote you Dukes because I can't see a townie saying that, or trying to save there own skin over catching scum.

Im going to look over the votes that Zorblag and pacman made for you and then make my decision.

[Porochaz]

Ok I read over Zorblag and pacmans posts and then Dukes. Whilst I dont mind Zorblags Day 2 vote I dont think either vote adds much to my growing suspicion on Dukes. However, I want to see a u-turn in the post kloud quoted.

For Now

FoS Dukes

[Dukes]

Here's the thing: if all I'm doing is drawing suspicion to myself, I'm not playing well. It appears I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't. Since I'm halfway to being lynched, I might as well confirm my role-claim.

I am Bender. Although I'm town aligned, I have no ability because, let's face it, would you trust Bender to do anything other than get drunk at night? The only thing I have to offer is another body... in many ways.

Okay, that out of the way, and hopefully it'll keep me from being lynched, BUT...

If the only thing Pacman did wrong was being scared of a bomb or jester role, I'd write it off as overthinking. But one of his first acts was to cast a random vote, then once asked why he voted the way he did, he changed his vote to his accuser. It seemed rather fast to be paranoid.

And by the way, my statement was not meant as an Appeal to Emotion, but a genuine asking for advice. I've gotten it: keep talking.

So, DP's meta-analysis: GW has said on Twilight of Day 1 that he was incredibly busy and was going to sit back and analyze everything. He then went on to provide the just in case vote on X -- a vote not needed. So yeah, he's being very quiet, but I've already said I'm not too hot about a Lurk-Lynch.

Zorblag seems to be the one who's most suspicious of me, so hopefully I can re-assure him and the rest of you that this is a red herring. It looked like Llama wanted us to think he trapped wolfram, but I'm wavering like crazy as to who to believe there. I think one of them and ONLY one of them is scum as of now, because of how quickly they turned on each other. My case against Pacman is stated, and I just await his word. The most recent string of posts makes me believe Poro and Kloud are good. So...

My suspicion list:
1. Pacman -- The posting has been rather brief and erratic.
2. GW -- The posting has been rather non-existent.
3. Wolf/Llama -- Their little snap just rubs me the wrong way.
4. DP -- He's been quiet most of the game and recommends lynching an inactive; right or wrong, it's rather dangerous.

I am ambivalent about Zorblag and Jahudo, as they don't seem particularly towny or scummy right now.

At this point, I trust Kloud and Poro. I of course also trust myself, even if I appear to be the only one.

[LlamaFluff]

First off... why did you fullclaim? Seriously you have what, two votes and two FoSs?

Also why are your top suspects lurkers, who one was on V/LA for most of the first day, and the second one posted that he is on V/LA right now?

[Porochaz]

My suspicion list:
1. Pacman -- The posting has been rather brief and erratic.
2. GW -- The posting has been rather non-existent.
3. Wolf/Llama -- Their little snap just rubs me the wrong way.
4. DP -- He's been quiet most of the game and recommends lynching an inactive; right or wrong, it's rather dangerous.

Ok just something I noticed, you have GW at no. 2 in your suspicions list for not posting but you have DP at no 4, for voting him because of that. Can you explain your thoughts on both of them more clearly please?

[Drunken Piper]

Alcohol is a vice that has me hooked,
did GW say was gone (v/la) and I overlooked?

First off... why did you fullclaim? Seriously you have what, two votes and two FoSs?

Also why are your top suspects lurkers, who one was on V/LA for most of the first day, and the second one posted that he is on V/LA right now?

(Slurp)where did GW has that?...if so, why did the mod prod him and update us on that? Also, I have played(ing) with GW several times...I am not pulling this meta out of my ass...dont believe me, check for yourself.

[LlamaFluff]

(Slurp)where did GW has that?...if so, why did the mod prod him and update us on that? Also, I have played(ing) with GW several times...I am not pulling this meta out of my ass...dont believe me, check for yourself.

One of the early votecounts mentioned GW being V/LA and GWs only post brought up him comming out of an absence.

[Dukes]

Three votes and two FoSs, actually, Llama. Which, if they convert, becomes L-1. Pac, Zorblag, and Kloud voted, with Wolf and Poro suspicious. And you, for that matter. So it made sense to claim then to me.

For me, the difference between 2 through 4 is pretty low. Lurking is a common enough scumtell -- especially in a minigame like this -- that it puts me off. But DP's only contribution has been to point that out, which puts him on the list.

Pacman is 1 not because he's V/LA, but because he got defensive right from the get-go. If you look at his first votes, he cast one at random, was asked why, and switched to the person who asked. This got a "wait, what?" from everyone, but no further. GW is 2 because he's Way Too Quiet. He's back from his absence, but has only posted essentially to say he was back.

I'd like to know what DP thinks of Pacman and the Wolf/Llama dichotomy, though, which will help me evaluate him better -- he's essentially there because he's the least trustworthy of the "probables".