UK Eastermeet 2022 Invitational (Game over!)

[Nexus]

Sorry, I am feeling quite tired and overwhelmed at the moment. I will give the game its due diligence and input soon.

Still won't answer all of Fenchurch's Qs though, I don't see the need.

[cpol]

Why are you trying so hard to convince me specifically though? I'm open to be challenged, but so far you've posted to defend yourself, but not actually put any effort in to look elsewhere (outside of some posts in the general direction of Wenna). You've even just said you are passively hoping that others would chime in. You were certainly happy to post a lot when it was related to defending yourself. It feels like you think you have got me off your case so you can relax.

I'm happy to look again at Nexus, but pretty much any post anyone makes can be batted away with the "Could marginally competent scum fake this?" line. I can list the posts that make me think Nexus is town, and you'll drop that line, and that's kinda conversation over. And if you are talking about ‘could a scum easily fake this’ then the line ‘so now it's on me to save the town. Which will probably fail and I've got things to do, but I'll feel bad if I don't try’ ticks just about all the boxes to me, plus it has a nice level of emotional blackmail in there to boot.

So I don’t know what to say. I don’t believe there will be any posts in this game that don’t manage to fall in to the "Could marginally competent scum fake this?" pile – we’ve been at this a fair old whilst now and no one has pointed one out yet, I certainly haven’t. If you have some up your sleeve, now feels like the time to drop them.

So it brings me back to my original point – why aren’t you executed? And why are the people who are not voting CES right now seeming like pretty ambivalent towards the whole situation? Or at the very least not frantically trying to come to some kind of group conclusion. I personally don’t want this game to go to a last-minute decision, that feels like a loss to me. I can only see that scum want that.

[Porochaz]

Tbh I don't know why you think nexus is town?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why are you trying so hard to convince me specifically though? I'm open to be challenged, but so far you've posted to defend yourself, but not actually put any effort in to look elsewhere (outside of some posts in the general direction of Wenna). You've even just said you are passively hoping that others would chime in. You were certainly happy to post a lot when it was related to defending yourself. It feels like you think you have got me off your case so you can relax.

I think the most likely path to executing scum today through goes Nexus and I think you're town, so if I can open your mind to voting him over me, I think that's incredibly helpful.

I'm happy to look again at Nexus, but pretty much any post anyone makes can be batted away with the "Could marginally competent scum fake this?" line. I can list the posts that make me think Nexus is town, and you'll drop that line, and that's kinda conversation over. And if you are talking about ‘could a scum easily fake this’ then the line ‘so now it's on me to save the town. Which will probably fail and I've got things to do, but I'll feel bad if I don't try’ ticks just about all the boxes to me, plus it has a nice level of emotional blackmail in there to boot.

I agree I could easily fake that and that you shouldn't townread me over it. I think it's very easy to fall into the trap of townreading lurkers for posting that sort of thing because it feels like you have nothing else to go, but that is very much a trap.

So I don’t know what to say. I don’t believe there will be any posts in this game that don’t manage to fall in to the "Could marginally competent scum fake this?" pile – we’ve been at this a fair old whilst now and no one has pointed one out yet, I certainly haven’t. If you have some up your sleeve, now feels like the time to drop them.

What I'm looking for when scumhunting is to find genuine-sounding stuff either combination with depth, some real sign that they have looked at what's going on and thought to themselves "what is this person doing? why are they doing it? are they likely to fake it?" or in combination with some eccentricity that would make it unlikely that the underlying thought would even occur to scum. I feel like it's been fairly obvious that I've been trying to elicit that in my questions to Menno and Wenna and I think would be a good reason to town-read me. And part of the reason I'm suspicious of Nexus and Wenna is because I feel I can notice the absence of what I'm looking for (Wenna calls me "cunning"; if I were scum, what would I be trying to accomplish cunningly? asking Menno questions to try and elicit a town story about their quickhammer? openly advocating for Menno's death which puts me a target on my back? it feels actively disconnected from a hypothetical scum!me)

So it brings me back to my original point – why aren’t you executed? And why are the people who are not voting CES right now seeming like pretty ambivalent towards the whole situation? Or at the very least not frantically trying to come to some kind of group conclusion. I personally don’t want this game to go to a last-minute decision, that feels like a loss to me. I can only see that scum want that.

Just take the concrete example of a Nexus-Wenna-Fenchurch scum team. I don't think anything that's happened Today is inconsistent with that. No one's super active and it's page 21 so town isn't particularly confident and it's only scum that have a clear goal.

Edited for pronouns. Please keep on top of this! - CDB

[cpol]

I don't find Nexus town for the aloof shit posting though, I find them town because when they haven't done that they've often posted what I was thinking at the time myself, and also often going against the direction that I felt the the flow of the game was being steered. I can look at these posts and not see an obvious reason why scum!Nexus would post them. They don't steer to what I would see as a potential scum agenda. For me, they all pass your tests.

Do you think there is any chance Nexus is town yourself? Can you read though their posts and point out to me what posts seal the deal for you for scum!Nexus please? Or at least what gives you enough doubt? I'd point out the ones that I do like myself, but I feel that if you are scum then I'm handing the ability to counter my thoughts to you on a plate. So I'd rather see where our thoughts differ, and whether I can rationalise that.

What I do find frustrating is that the conversation is going to stall between the two of us. I don't think we are going to convince each other in isolation. You are going to do everything you can to convince me you are town - as you would for either alignment. I'm going to doubt every word you say. Some outside input into this would be appreciated.

[Fenchurch]

This is Shanba's cue to drop in and solve the game for us

[Postie]

Mrrp catching up

@Posite

Please can I have a sense check from you on what I am thinking?

Which part? CES? I don't agree with your reasoning, but I scumread CES nonetheless cause I don't think he's responded adequately to the pressure on him so far. Could be a personality thing, but his posting just feels so... robotic? Gonna focus my attention there now I think

Sell me on Nexus town?

P-Edit: Hmmm

[Postie]

I can list the posts that make me think Nexus is town,

Do it

[cpol]

I don't think that's the right play now - CES needs to post why Nexus isn't town, otherwise I've just laid out the exact points he needs to counter right in front of him. I want to see CESs take first, then I'll counter.

[Postie]

Poro's explanation for feeling disengaged feels genuine but idk that that's AI
Maybe mild townlean from the level of detail in terms of the thought process and possibilities considered? The back-and-forthing feels organic

Cpol's 466, seems a lot of effort to vote for CES. That could have been summarised to a couple of lines. I don't mean to be rude, but it feels more justifying it than explanatory.

Agree, and I think also somewhat what I felt when I read cpol's original CES case

Reading back on your theory about Fen and cpol, given the facts that we know now, Im seeing more weight behind your theory. I am wondering despite my assertions earlier in this post that cpol is town, that scum cpol would pass the potato to scumfenchurch knowing that it would likely be passed back but that she would be able to provide one if something went wrong. Which when town menno hammered, it did go wrong.

Is this still a possibility in your mind? Or have I missed something?

Yeah, it is, but I've also had a fair amount of town pings from cpol at this point, so I think I'm leaning town overall? There's some stuff I think would be out of cpol's scumrange, albeit I have never seen scum!cpol in a forum format. But I'm also worried cpol has been and is trying to buddy me now, which keeps making me go back and forth a bit. I don't see cpol getting executed today so I feel like I kinda have to just try to work with an assumed town!cpol for now too. Ergh.
Hope that made some kind of sense

P-Edit: oh yeah sure go for it

[Postie]

I feel like the main reason I'm on the chopping block Today is just made-up narratives about the Mennowagon. It sure is hard to imagine what sort of motive scum might have had to help create this type of situation.

Create what type of situation? Do you think the Menno wagon was all town?

I feel and otherwise I'll probably feel forced to post some deep breakdown of why Wenna's behaviour is scummy that no one will appreciate but will make me feel better after the game.

Don't burn yourself out obviously if you have other obligations but I would definitely like to see this given I'm scumreading you and have no read on Wenna

[Fenchurch]

I don't think that's the right play now - CES needs to post why Nexus isn't town, otherwise I've just laid out the exact points he needs to counter right in front of him. I want to see CESs take first, then I'll counter.

I'm really not sure what magic you're expecting and personally I'd rather he doesn't try. CES already described it in 503... it's just a lack of towniness. You have lots of posts where it looks like you are trying to solve the game and figure people out, in a way that is hard to fake. Postie has this too. In my opinion, CES has this too. That's why I have you 3 as my town reads.

And it sounds like that's basically your approach, except you do see that towniness in Nexus' posts.

So I'm not sure how this can be resolved, which is why I'm pretty resigned to a loss here... sorry. The fact that we need all 5 town united in order to get a scum execution seems like an extremely high bar.

The narrative of this game, for me is:

1. Menno decided Bella was scum and suddenly executed her. Unfortunately, Menno was wrong.
   
2. For that mistake, I read Menno as scum and pushed for their execution. Unfortunately, I was wrong.
   
3. For that mistake, everyone now believes me to be scum. I guess I should appreciate the irony here... but I don't.

And I'm not sure a way past this so... I'm letting it go.

[Fenchurch]

For what it's worth, that's not me saying that I'm giving up. But I'm not going to pour my heart and soul into the game like I might once have done, and I'm going to accept that mafia is hard and it's okay to get it wrong.

[Postie]

Cpol, this is entirely wrong, please unvote.

We're at even numbers with a jailkeeper. No way scum give up multiple members for a quickexecution here. If they have the numbers to finish me off, they just talk themselves into it.

And that's not even taking into account that they have barely had time to arrange a quickexecution nor that Nexus and Wenna could easily both be scum.

BIG scum ping here
Assuming the asking cpol to unvote is about preventing a quickhammer, CES stating there's no way there'd be a quickhammer in the next post would be nonsensical
Assuming it isn't about preventing a quickhammer, jumping immediately into explaining why you're not going to be quickhammered without telling people to unvote just in case you get quickhammered is a very odd response for town - even if there's only a 1% chance of quickhammer, the immediate focus should be on getting people to unvote to make sure it doesn't happen
Either way, the train of thought doesn't make sense to me from a town PoV

@CDB

- Do we know if scum have daytalk, or is it a mystery?

[Fenchurch]

It made sense to me and I don't know if scum have daytalk or not (personally I assume they don't).

Cpol's vote put CES at E-1 right? So that is simple quick hammer range without scum even having to plan anything. I'd definitely be worried if I were town in that position.

In the second quote, CES is responding to Cpol's rationale that because CES hadn't yet been quick hammered whilst at E-2 then he must indeed be scum. But a two-scum quick hammer is much harder to arrange than a single vote.

[Wenna]

I am not enjoying the fact that both of the players I have the strongest anti-town reads on seem to be defending each other and answering questions for each other, a lot.

Are there reads to be had from a player declaring that it is lost, or that they have given up hope? RE CES and Fenchurch recent posts

[Postie]

Oh, right. Nevermind on that one then.

In fact
UNVOTE:
Just in case scum haven't been able to co-ordinator so far

[Postie]

(personally I assume they don't)

Why?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't find Nexus town for the aloof shit posting though, I find them town because when they haven't done that they've often posted what I was thinking at the time myself, and also often going against the direction that I felt the the flow of the game was being steered. I can look at these posts and not see an obvious reason why scum!Nexus would post them. They don't steer to what I would see as a potential scum agenda. For me, they all pass your tests.

If you mean calling Menno town, I think Menno had some of the same sort of superficial genuine-seeming stuff that I didn't find convincing in the slights, but I don't think there's anything special about Nexus picking up on that and deciding to call Menno town. Some sign that they considered both that and the quickhammer, weighing them up as to what was more telling, would be a minimum requirements to pass my tests.

Create what type of situation? Do you think the Menno wagon was all town?

The situation I'm talking about is having dueling wagons on town - it can very easily lead into a narrative that if it's not one, then it's the other. 0 or 1 scum at the Mennowagon wouldn't surprise me at this stage, but that's not really the point. The idea that there was no motivation for scum to do anything than vote Menno is just patently untrue - avoiding some amount of scrutiny while setting up a future misexecution is pure upside if it's available.

That's all I have time for now.

Edited for term replacement. - CDB

[ChannelDelibird]

@CDB

- Do we know if scum have daytalk, or is it a mystery?

That information is not publicly available.

[Fenchurch]

Why?

I dunno, just what I'm used to, and I assume is the default?

[Primate]

Anyway it is interesting that you (Primate) have paired us (Fen/Wen), I have been anti-Fenchurch for most of this game, and very vocal about it. Fair enough if you see it as scum-buddying, but I have felt iffy about Fenchurch fright from early on, even if another player sneaks ahead because of XYZ. e.g. most recent posts, voting, listening to others and re-evaluating my views.

Yes, that's why I paired you.

I'm sorry for being less prepared to consider the quick hammer as impulsive town. Although, I still don't know if I would do anything differently next time. Like Postie described yesterday... I would feel annoyed if I wrote that off and then lost because they actually were scum. You all may be much more astute than me, but I don't think I could ever have felt confident enough in discerning Menno's alignment outside from that action.

That's not what I mean.

If there are three scum, then they only need to convince two townies to vote with them and the game is over, no? 8 alive -1 execution, -1 night kill gives us a 3/3 split the next day, ending the game?

You're kind of right but you're making some big assumptions about co-ordination. Also Nexus and wenna both being scum isn't unlikely at all? I agree (kind of) with CES' post about a jailkeeper too. Scum have a decent chance of winning here, I don't get why they risk a chance of a likely loss to speedlexecute someone who, based on previous days, is going to be executed anyway.

The first time you were at E-2, the claims hadn't happened yet. The jailkeeper wasn't known, so could have happened.

And this is super wrong. Scum didn't know the setup at this point. They aren't going to throw away 2 scum from a winning position when they don't have a solid picture of what roles are in the game and what could prevent them from winning.

I am not overly enamoured by Primates response to being called out - what I would call overly defensive/aggressive (similar to Patrick did to me during WereLeg one game when he was scum), plus for someone not 'invested' in the game, they sure responded quickly to being voted for. Nexus may have been luring a lot more, but several of their comments have resonated with what I was feeling at the time as well. I'll agree Wenna is a null for me at the moment, but could fall into that 1 voter category. And I still land on the fact that I can't see Nexus and Wenna together as a pairing.

I responded that day because steve dropped out of arkham so I had a free evening.

Nexus I could see being town.

VOTE: wenna

[Fenchurch]

I am not enjoying the fact that both of the players I have the strongest anti-town reads on seem to be defending each other and answering questions for each other, a lot.

I guess I just have had a similar mindset to CES for a lot of this game. Maybe from playing together and talking about the game over the years we've developed more of a similar approach, because I don't remember it being that way always. Or maybe it's just this game.

And I would normally avoid answering on someone else's behalf, but you were all busy playing Arkham last night and I kinda thought under the circumstances... what difference does it make.

[Fenchurch]

Well that's good, I'd prefer Wenna to Nexus.

VOTE: Wenna

[Wenna]

Well that's good, I'd prefer Wenna to Nexus.

VOTE: Wenna

If you'd rather vote for me than Nexus, why not just do it, why vote for Nexus before? Noone else was voting Nexus.

Were you waiting for someone else to vote for me, just in case I am executed, so when I flip town it seems less incriminating for you?