Mini 692: Boost Mafia (Game Over!)

[iLord]

In the cases of the neutral reads, I've seen a mostly defensive skillet that hasn't been scum hunting enough, a TDC that isn't being very open with his opinions or train of thought, and a sthar that might have exaggerated suspicion on him so he's gone defensive too.

The difference with fuzzy is I keep forgetting how he's been involved in topics and I have to look at his posts separately. Several times I think he's just come after the topic has been discussed and he adds the same info, like in the case of Electra's claim, skillit's attack. So it will probably take more time to see how he's playing.

Okay. After you look at FL, I'd like to hear your read on him.

[Incognito]

You haven't as much goaded him as showing no apparent signs of pacifiying him. You're obviously a lot less emotionally involved, and so you must walk the higher ground.

It's really not my job to pacify her though (again, springlullaby is a girl so please stop calling her a "him" lol). All I can do is respond to the points that she's raised against me to the best of my ability and determine if her suspicion of me is really genuine in order to get a better read of her. And how could you say I'm less emotionally involved when springlullaby herself ended up unvoting me for taking offense to her flaming? What

do

you think of her unvote, btw?

Also, I'd really like for you to explain your whole thought process as thoroughly as you possibly can that caused you to go from "Electra's page 1 claim is way too easy of a scum gambit for you to trust" to you reading her as practically confirmed town.

@Raging Rabbit:

Was there any reason why you asked me about my read of Crazy in particular?

Hence lynching Crazy will also give us a decent steer on sl's alignment.

eldarad, I meant to ask you about this before, but is there any reason why you seem to have an order of lynching preference?

Hmm, I feel like I owe this game one huge reread to try and see if my current suspicions remain the same or change slightly.

[Incognito]

Bah. Double post.

Crazy, Incognito, scummyish.

I guess if anything, I'd read them both as ever so slightly town due to the level of anger in their exchange.

Electra, why the change? It's not like I was any less angry before you made your 6th post. Also, post++.

[iLord]

It's really not my job to pacify her though (again, springlullaby is a girl so please stop calling her a "him" lol). All I can do is respond to the points that she's raised against me to the best of my ability and determine if her suspicion of me is really genuine in order to get a better read of her. And how could you say I'm less emotionally involved when springlullaby herself ended up unvoting me for taking offense to her flaming? What do you think of her unvote, btw?

Sorry, I keep on forgetting. It's not your job to pacify her, but doing os will result in a more enjoyable game.

I don't get how you could be more emotionally involved then SL - she's geting pretty intense. You're remaining rational. Getting emotionally involved is a bad thing - it distorts judgement.

Did she really unvote?

Also, I'd really like for you to explain your whole thought process as thoroughly as you possibly can that caused you to go from "Electra's page 1 claim is way too easy of a scum gambit for you to trust" to you reading her as practically confirmed town.

It's actually really simple - someone brought up the point (I think it was Eldarad) that scumElectra would have to make quite the leap of faith in terms of set-up speculation. What benefit could the scum recieve when boosted to justify what would be a very gutsy and risky scum gambit.

I will note that if my theory about the set-up is correct, Electra would have to be scum. That being said, I don't really think said theory is correct, but we'll see soon enough.

[Skillit]

hey - this game really got away from me and my binge drinking certainly did not help. not making excuses for slacking, just trying to say that much school pressure is off and im catching up on the game now.

[sthar8]

I'm enjoying this game immensely, even though I've been less active than I should.

SL,

you need to take a deep breath and back off for a bit. Maybe focus on somebody else for a while, then streamline and refine your case on Incog after you are both less emotionally invested. At this point, it's difficult to read your posts (both of you) and determine what is relevant and what is meaningless quibbling because you don't want to back down and lose theoretical territory.

Incog,

at the risk of starting an argument with you, I'll point out that you seem to be overly fond of ad hominem, ad lapidem and horse laugh arguments in SL's case. Whether you are justified or not, I know that my own reaction to being the target of such tactics would make their classification as "goads" more than acceptable. I'm omitting specific examples in the interest of brevity, and because this is not indicative of alignment, but if you'd like me to point out some instances in which you've been provocative, let me know.

I'm sure you've already realized this, but you misread my thoughts as well as Electra's regarding SL.

Jahudo:

I don't find anything odd about the timing of the vote since Crazy was supposedly away and got prodded. I also don't think he just jumped on the largest wagon because I don't see him trying to push it without anything new to show for it. Maybe that's indicative of something else, though.

The odd part is that he'd add the L-2 vote on page 4 with a case based on a single, page 1 action and

without

expressing any awareness that a hammer might not be a hammer at this point. As for his lack of pushing, why would scum want to skyline themselves so close to the perceived lynch? Any pushing he did would draw unwanted attention.

I think it's okay to suspect people like he did for TDC and RR, by not saying anything just yet. To me, it seems he's not as serious because it's not outlined. But using it as a preemption back by other people is another thing.

I agree, but what caught my eye is that he

didn't

maintain any consistency over all four of his suspicions. The way he treated Skillit and I was different from how he treated TDC and RR. I'm also a little suspicious of the fact that he basically announced that he wasn't paying very much attention, then tries to direct our attention to those

four

players. The quantity of suspicion combines with the explanation for the noncontribution and the inconsistent method to suggest mudslinging, in my opinion. It looks like crazy saying "Here's where I want you looking, town." And that's scummy.

Crazy:

I'd find this very scummy if I didn't already think he was town... crap.

Why, out of curiosity? Is it more or less scummy after I explained my reasoning for being vague on the Skillit thing?

sthar - What's your current opinion on massclaiming?

You know, ignoring everything I've said to you is not really the best way to convince me to cooperate with your questioning.

However, since others might like to know the answer to this question:
At this point, I wouldn't advocate massclaiming solely to test my setup theory. Part of the reason it might have worked was that scum would not have had an opportunity to gain any information from townie posts yet. There have been too many hints dropped in the meantime. Also, the initial reaction to the proposal gives me significant reason to doubt my guesses. The fact that no one had come up with the same theory as me suggests that I was either wrong, or that no one else was giving the setup as much thought as I was. I'm not going to gamble on the assumption that I was right where everyone else disagrees.

[iLord]

However, since others might like to know the answer to this question:
At this point, I wouldn't advocate massclaiming solely to test my setup theory. Part of the reason it might have worked was that scum would not have had an opportunity to gain any information from townie posts yet. There have been too many hints dropped in the meantime. Also, the initial reaction to the proposal gives me significant reason to doubt my guesses. The fact that no one had come up with the same theory as me suggests that I was either wrong, or that no one else was giving the setup as much thought as I was. I'm not going to gamble on the assumption that I was right where everyone else disagrees.

My theory's different?

Does Electra's claim strengthen your theory?

[sthar8]

My theory's different?

Does Electra's claim strengthen your theory?

Apparently, since I don't agree with :

I will note that if my theory about the set-up is correct, Electra would have to be scum. That being said, I don't really think said theory is correct, but we'll see soon enough.

In fact, her claim only really supports my theory if she is town.

[iLord]

In fact, her claim only really supports my theory if she is town.

Ah okay. My theory could be altered to allow for Electra, but that would result in quite the inelegant set-up.

I actually think my theory is closely related to yours except for the fact that may role would disprove yours.

[sthar8]

Another reason to avoid the massclaim for now, unless there's another reason to go for it. Plus, if you're scum, you confirm that there is enough info in-thread to counteract the effect of the claims.

[Incognito]

Did she really unvote?

Uh huh.

It's actually really simple - someone brought up the point (I think it was Eldarad) that scumElectra would have to make quite the leap of faith in terms of set-up speculation. What benefit could the scum recieve when boosted to justify what would be a very gutsy and risky scum gambit.

Heh. Another comment that I really can't wait for springlullaby to see.

@sthar8:

I think I know which particular instances of mine you're talking about, but I still feel like my responses were different enough to not fall into at least two of those categories. I'm not really familiar with the term "horse laugh" to make my own judgment call about that one, but yeah, I don't think specific examples of mine need to be brought to my attention.

Still planning on getting a reread in as I've pretty much glossed over the argument against Crazy but yet he has a few votes on him already.

I'm also trying to ignore the mass claiming stuff. I had thought of a particularly useful case where mass claiming might have been extremely beneficial if certain things that have been said within thread are actually truthful but now that certain information has been exposed, I really don't think it would be as useful as it could have been if that information had been hidden better.

[Elmo]

Day 1, Vote Count #6 - Lynching

Crazy (4) <- Skillit, sthar8, eldarad, Electra
Skillet (2) <- TDC, Crazy
sthar8 <- Raging Rabbit
springlullaby <- Incognito
Raging Rabbit <- iLord

Not voting: fuzzylightning, Jahudo, springlullaby.

Boost Count

Electra (6) <- eldarad, Raging Rabbit, TDC, springlullaby, Jahudo, fuzzylightning
springlullaby <- Jahudo
Incognito <- Skillit
eldarad <- TDC

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch/boost.

[TDC]

Don't know about you, but I didn't really take much out of the Incognito/springlullaby exchange.

---

I don't really understand the Crazy case. Could anyone clue me in?

---

I'm not done here, I will be back in around 3 hrs, this is just what i had typed up before I got called to go to work for a short shift.

I'd like to read this.

----

Ah okay. My theory could be altered to allow for Electra, but that would result in quite the inelegant set-up.

I actually think my theory is closely related to yours except for the fact that may role would disprove yours.

I remember you saying you'll boost Electra later on. Has this changed, or do you think that we have "quite the inelegant set-up"/your theory is wrong?

[springlullaby]

SL - why is incog taking offence a sign of him being town? Are scum less emotionally invested in the game?

He refused answering my post, which under normal circumstance I would see as scummy, except if he were really offended which could be seem as a mitigating circumstance.

Plus, my unvote is part hesitancy part penance, because I do recognize that, even though I expect tougher skin from players and think that Incog has been more than once been patronizing and toeing the line of demeaning, I have been stupid to not maintain my cool and cross the line to overt insult. He called me on it, it is his right.

I have reread the game, I'm on Skillit scum with Incognito. I'll post why I think so when I work up the energy to do so.

[eldarad]

/post

I'm at least a page behind. I'll aim to make a decent post in the next 24-48 hours.

[Incognito]

Okay, so I read up on Crazy as promised, and I don't really see much about him that makes me lean towards thinking he's scum here. I think he should probably post more during real time, but I don't see too much wrong with the content he's provided so far. Probably the most substantial post against him was raised by sthar8 which, I think, actually misrepresented Crazy particularly here:

He then encourages us not to worry about boosting scum, expresses unsupported suspicions of two apparently unconnected players, and buddies up to eldarad before signing off.

sthar8, where exactly did Crazy encourage anyone not to worry about boosting scum? I'm assuming you're talking about here:

I'm now not seeing what possible great benefit Electra would get from getting boosted (presumably as scum) that would warrant a gambit like this. It's not like a boost is an automatic win, right? Which makes me think it's more likely that she's pro-town.

I don't really see how that's encouraging anyone about not worrying about boosting scum. To me, he just seems to use the above as his own reason to believe Electra's claim since he seems to assume a boost of scum shouldn't result in an automatic win -- it would presumably just provide the boosted scum with some type of (possibly additional) power. Thus he believes Electra wouldn't put her own neck out on the line the way she has just to get a boost if she were scum. Do you not see it that way?

Also the only way you could definitively say that Crazy "buddies up" to eldarad is if you know with great certainty that eldarad is town. You can say something like "this post from Crazy

looks like

he's buddying up to eldarad" but not say it with great certainty unless of course you're scum and you know eldarad is town.

I think the only thing I do want clarified from Crazy is the following:

*coughpressure* Scum vibes from TDC and RR. */pressurecough*

Crazy, in the above you mentioned that you're receiving scum vibes from RR and TDC but in your large player by player analysis post you were comparatively softer on TDC. What was it in particular then that gave you scum vibes from TDC in 79? What caused that to change in between your 79 and 151?

Also, I guess the other thing I didn't like that was

related

to Crazy but not directly written by him was springlullaby's double standardization with him that eldarad also pointed out. I'd really like springlullaby to respond to that too.

I have reread the game, I'm on Skillit scum with Incognito. I'll post why I think so when I work up the energy to do so.

I'm looking forward to this.

@fuzzylightning:

How's that computer situation coming along?

@Electra:

Could you go a bit further into Crazy's "textbook scumminess"?

[iLord]

I remember you saying you'll boost Electra later on. Has this changed, or do you think that we have "quite the inelegant set-up"/your theory is wrong?

I think that my theory is wrong, personally.

[Jahudo]

The odd part is that he'd add the L-2 vote on page 4 with a case based on a single, page 1 action and without expressing any awareness that a hammer might not be a hammer at this point. As for his lack of pushing, why would scum want to skyline themselves so close to the perceived lynch? Any pushing he did would draw unwanted attention.

If he was aware that you couldn't hammer then it doesn't look bad, but we'll never know that. Do you think that attention was diverted from his L-2 vote reasoning because he also suspected those 3 other people in his post? In other words, does suspecting other people decrease the seriousness of what he did?

I agree, but what caught my eye is that he didn't maintain any consistency over all four of his suspicions. The way he treated Skillit and I was different from how he treated TDC and RR. I'm also a little suspicious of the fact that he basically announced that he wasn't paying very much attention, then tries to direct our attention to those four players. The quantity of suspicion combines with the explanation for the noncontribution and the inconsistent method to suggest mudslinging, in my opinion. It looks like crazy saying "Here's where I want you looking, town." And that's scummy.

No, he did not maintain any consistency, but he didn't rank his suspicion to the four people anywhere near equally, did he? Could it be implied that he was as serious about TDC and RR as he was with Skillet? The exact line was:

*coughpressure* Scum vibes from TDC and RR. */pressurecough*

which instills attention to those people without reason, but does not warrant any particular direction for other people to go on, and Crazy would have to do that himself or wait until other people came to those suspicions on their own. I also think his move was not helpful because it did not extrapolate on these people. And how's the "coughpressure" supposed to pressure? Too little for a FoS? Sidetrack: Does anyone use IGMEOY? I don't.

[springlullaby]

Incognito, let's make a deal first.

I give you my word that from now on I'll stop using insults when addressing you, and you give me your word that you will refrain to the best of your ability from being patronizing and from making doubtful remarks.

If we can't reach that agreement, I will present my apologies to the mod and the players present, and ask for replacement.

It is not that you have been extraordinarily insufferable, and I certainly was wrong for getting mad, but for some reason you just upset me beyond what I can tolerate without blinking, and there would be no point in my not quitting right now only to continue and potentially ruins the game for everyone if you plan on keeping at it.

Your call.

[Raging Rabbit]

Guilt? Are you attacking him for guilt? What's wrong with feeling guilty if you do something antitown?

Yup, scum make an active effort to appear pro town while town are more concerned with looking for scum, so obviously scum have a much stronger sense of guilt when they are called on an anti-town play. For them, it means their town-act failed, while town are more inclined to think it's the other guy's fault for not reading them correctly.
However, both in hindsight and considering his latest comment, I think sthar's massclaim speculation is a pretty strong sign that he's town.

Unvote

.

More later, I'm too busy with the many tests coming up to even read everything through atm.

[Incognito]

springlullaby, first, please don't ask for replacement. I don't know what I did exactly to upset you so much. At the risk of getting you upset again (x_x) could you maybe show me which remarks of mine in particular got you so angry? Because if I came off in a patronizing manner, that really wasn't my intention at all, and I apologize for that. Maybe it's my dry sense of humor that's getting you upset? That's more of a personality trait of mine that would be kinda difficult for me to change, but I can try to ummm, I dunno, alleviate your anger if I know what remarks of mine made you upset.

Ummm, off topic or maybe this is more on topic than I think, but where are you from? You were using French words before, and some of your language usage seems slightly different from mine even though we're both speaking English. I'll go first. I'm from New Jersey.

[springlullaby]

Oh my, this is embarrassing, I actually wish I could invoke some game related excuse to justify my play in this game and specifically my last post, but as it is there is no way for me to get out of this graciously.

The only thing I can say is that bad days and lack of sleep aren't propitious to keeping a clear head in mafia.

I have reread myself and am quite embarrassed:

1. My last post is overly dramatic without reason.

2. My accusing you, Incognito, for my getting angry is pretty much entirely irrational. I'm sorry. I should have kept myself in check and my personal foul mood out of the game, and that's it. I really do appreciate the fact that you actually offered apologies when you needn't have. Thank you.

Right now I can only offer my apologies to everyone for shitting up the thread and for needless drama. It's just, you know, really bad days and a convergence of things.

So yeah, really really sorry. I promise it is the first time I have blown up like that in a game and am really embarrassed. In the interest of not ruining the game further, can we just, you know 'move along, nothing to see'.

Please?

[springlullaby]

Skillit-Incognito scumpair.

INCOGNITO

I have thought about rewriting my case on him, but I decided to let it stand as it is because, even though I recognize that a lot of my points were badly formulated to the point of being easily turn-able into derision, I think it projects a strong picture d'ensemble of what a conjectural scum might do. Beside, I'm just too lazy.

A couple of additional remarks and better explanations of my views, though.

1. There is no perfect case, especially on day 1, and in mafia you could pretty much dismiss anything by virtue of giving the benefit of the doubt if you were thus inclined. But thing is, you've got to make the leap somewhere, somehow, if you want to move things along. That is why in essence the 'reserving judgement being protown' argument is in my view not a good defence.

In addition, I think that wanting to reserve judgement hints heavily at self-preservation being a big motivation in one's play. In clear, I think Incognito has been sending up 'I may be blue' warning signs to town but you see, I do not think there is a role in this game that warrants such a strongly hinted at subtext beside scum.

2. I do see a pattern of OMGUS in Incognito's play. When left 'unattended' you can see him going about what I see as asking an endless stream of questions with no perspective in sight. But he does comes alive when directly under fire, putting my case on him aside, see his reaction to iLord.

This combined with his inability to formulate an original view of anything, makes me think he is a pretty good picture of reactive scum play.



SKILLIT

11. First reaction, Mohinder Suresh - vaguely scummy, not because 'assuming E is town' but because I have undisclosable meta on this.
21. Nitpickin Electra
22. explain mohinder
24. joke
27. long explanation for nitpicking - convoluted but neutral
34. doesn't admit reaching, - neutral
45. Doesn't reach conclusion about Electra - explanation neutral; BOOST INCOGNITO for lame reason
57. explains pun
86. repeats was joke, 'or something else?'?, thinks people blowing this way too far, people should entertain the possibility that they are wrong - plausible defence
106. seems to indicate suspicions about sthar and RR, but nothing strong

Isolated, there isn't really much to comment on about skillit's play other than him having been pretty much posting exclusively explanations for his 'odd' thing - this is not very scummy in itself since he was under attack and I do hold to my view that the excuses he gave were plausible enough. What is more telling is imo is the way in which, after the earlier bout of attention he received, he has pretty much vanished from the game and has yet to reveal any strong view on the game - this I think is scummy, lying low after being exposed in the spotlight too much scummy.

However it is not a strong indication in itself, because sometimes town does the lying low thing too.

What I'm going to point out now does depend heavily on my view of Incognito and may easily be accused of being tunnel-vision, and maybe it is but I don't think so and I think it has intrinsic value as exploration of scummy interaction.

Incognito has a history of needling at skillit:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 21#1317821
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 08#1317908
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 50#1319450
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 50#1319450
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 76#1320576
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 93#1320593

Yet, he has never expressed a very strong stance on what he thinks of him. Instead, he chose to vote sthar in a time where he was still engaged in conversation with skillit. I think that this interaction isn't genuine. What motivates Incognito to not cast a vote on skillit since he is questioning him and seems suspicious of him?

Later, there is a post from Incognito signalling that skillit is at L-2.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 85#1324185

This post is peculiar because what it does is asking for people to justify their vote on skillit, while he himself has made no commitment as to his thought on skillit's alignment - note here that this imo is in itself is a display of scumminess from Incognito, I will also further speculate that what happened there is that Incognito was been sly and he was defending skillit without seeming to, I acknowledge however that the last is a judgement call.

And to conclude, I'd like to point to skillit's boosting Incognito for absolutely lame reason. It does feel like a piece of a puzzle just failing into place, doesn't it?

Now, as I already said, I am aware that my case has a danger of being tunnel-vision, but you gotta admit that the confluence of facts are pretty compelling. And I think tunnel vision is very often an overrated bogeyman anyway.


So, my main suspect is still Incognito, but I'm also available for a skillit lynch.

Vote Incognito

[springlullaby]

I'll post next in details my thoughts on the rest of the players, I think iLord is town.

[Jahudo]

Later, there is a post from Incognito signalling that skillit is at L-2.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 85#1324185

This post is peculiar because what it does is asking for people to justify their vote on skillit, while he himself has made no commitment as to his thought on skillit's alignment

That is interesting. I can think of several reasons why he could do this, both town and scum, but by calling attention to skillit at L-2 I think he's trying to pause any momentum while people step back and re-look at things.

He did ask alot of questions to Skillit and give him alot of attention early on, maybe the most out of any of us. Some of it was about the show Heroes and some was to get Skillit to explain his thinking, but nothing like an accusation. I can't find Incog's opinion from these posts though.