jdodge's logic re: battosoi's counterwagon thing is interesting, but I hardly think anyone was going to lynch me page 1, so I'm not sure why battosoi as my partner would do something that obvious. it seems a lil off of jdodge to suggest it cuz hes pretty good. omgus/fos: jdodge.
part of me likes battosoi-adel with that second vote, since battosoi could easily have voted someone else, too.
btw:
Y'all know the MOS-plan for vengeful or whatever? You select a player to be "MOS" and never lynch them and that improves your chances of winning. A similar strategy applies here I think.
Normal play:
1/3 chance of winning day 1.
2/3 * 2/5 chance of winning day 2
1/3 + 2/3 * 2/5 (4/15) = 9/15
If we select a "MOS"
2/3 town mos:
2/5 chance of winning day 1
3/5 * 1/2 chance of winning day 2
4/10 + 3/10 = 7/10 chance if town mos
7/10 * 2/3 = 7/15
1/3 scum mos:
1/5 chance day 1
4/5 * 1/4 chance day 2
1/5 + 1/5 = 2/10 * 1/3 = 1/15
total chance of winning 8/15.
um. dang nevermind. Maybe I did maths wrong, its 4:30 am. someone else recheck this.
anyways im gonna vote 4 bat- Battousai. his 2nd vote on the 2nd waogn is a lil funny.