And it makes me happy, because I can see their play this game, and it immediately made me see more active plays that greatly helped their team.
But yeah, Bnuuy-TicTac-Menalque for me is like 99/100 times scum. I stand by that I never see Nashville or Nero slot as Wolf ever here. I believe I've made my thoughts on why all game.
Nashville was the main person pushing my VCA half case of Catboi, which we now know was true. They were also the main counterwagon to Catboi all of Day 1.
WallFlower/Nero slot was the main person assisting in my tone manipulation side of the case onto Catboi, which we now know is true. WallFlower also replaced out after an interaction with Catboi.
Sword of Ducks has the newbie town pass, ill give it that, but i truly do feel they are bleeding town, however I can see some possibility of them being Mafia/Wolf, but it's more based on POE, and the "maybe I shouldn't base them off of tone" paranoia that goes against my gut directly.
Klick if somehow scum only happens if Mathblade lied, but if that's the case, Klick just wins, and I'm okay accepting that scenario, tbh, but it doesn't matter, i dont believe this is ever it.
Literally, on top of all of the cases I can make for the other 3 being wolves, it's also a hard POE lock for me.
The combination of this is why I am so confident here.
You’re trying very hard to unrail it as it stands, up to and including your old vote-then-unvote trick which I have seen before, even if others may not have
So take a look at this.
This is a tactic that Menalque knows I pull as scum.
They did something incredibly similar with both Bnuuy and Tictac.
By pushing Bnuuy and TicTac the way they did, it made it look like Catboi counterwagons, but these wagons never went through.
TicTac also had the Mason claim to back themselves up with, and I'll have to look back, but if Menalque is the one who ended up pulling away, this could be a strong indicative of Menalque pushing Bnuuy/TicTac to derail momentum on Catboi, and then back away from those wagons, while simultaneaously distancing themselves.
Toogeloo somehow happened to be the one that got faded despite me defending them.
____________________________
I have a VCA coming that I was doing in this one, but it needs its own post.
Let's check out 1.24. This was near the end of the day, and was one of the largest Catboi wagons. In 1.16, TicTac was on the wagon, but only when it was smaller. They never returned, and actively went on the ones going against Catboi.
So remember, I was saying there was always scum in the stragglers of Catboi wagon. Those were Toogeloo, Mega, CSF, and TicTac. Toogeloo and Mega flipped town. CSF flipped red. In addition to the only other slots ever on the Catboi wagon in myself, ND, and Nero Cain.
So is it likely that nobody on the wolf team ever voted Catboi? I would say no. At the very least, it would make sense for one teammate to vote at one point during the game even if it wasn't for long. TicTac fits perfectly.
In this scenario, Catboi could get some more momentum on them if more would join. Do we think it's ever likely for 2 wolves to be on Catboi at this time? No.
This automatically makes it so Nero and Nashville are never W/W here, and I can't be a wolf, I'm just....Flavor. (harry)
____
Awesome. So now, Bnuuy on MonkeyMan is a VC mistake, they were on Toogeloo here, meaning 100% of the unflipped slots are on either Toogeloo or Catboi.
Wolves need to save Catboi, so this means at the very least, there are 2 wolves on Toogeloo unflipped. Menalque, Tictac, Sword, Bnuuy.
This confirms that there are always 2 Wolves in that group of 4, possibly the 3rd, but for VCA sake, I'll add in the possibility of 1 of Nero/Nashville, but I don't believe it's ever both.
So doesn't need to be said, but the final Mafia is either on Catboi/Toogeloo here, which is exactly the Mafia candidates of Nero/Nashville/Sword/Flavor (for completionist's sake)
_____
So even if you believe I am Mafia here, take a look at my analysis that I've posted these last couple of pages.
This has been my strongest scum hunting all game, if I do say so myself.
I am a late game town powerhouse because, and all 3 of the my proposed wolves team know this about me (if I'm right on who Bnuuy is).
I had called out successfully Catboi, Mastina, and CSF earlier this game, and then I started to get hard targeted for some reason.
This wasn't a strong scum game by me, this was a strong TOWN game.
And I do apologize for being overbearing this game, it's one of the reasons I need to step away, but take a look at Flavor Leaf vs Hectic.
I essentially played the exact same way, but from the confirmed town slot. TownMe is overbearing.
I intend to make one solid push today that will go through. Feel free to explore options for the day, but I intend to be the deciding factor in today's vote, as we're not getting a town-decided elimination otherwise.
You’re trying very hard to unrail it as it stands, up to and including your old vote-then-unvote trick which I have seen before, even if others may not have
So take a look at this.
This is a tactic that Menalque knows I pull as scum.
They did something incredibly similar with both Bnuuy and Tictac.
By pushing Bnuuy and TicTac the way they did, it made it look like Catboi counterwagons, but these wagons never went through.
TicTac also had the Mason claim to back themselves up with, and I'll have to look back, but if Menalque is the one who ended up pulling away, this could be a strong indicative of Menalque pushing Bnuuy/TicTac to derail momentum on Catboi, and then back away from those wagons, while simultaneaously distancing themselves.
Toogeloo somehow happened to be the one that got faded despite me defending them.
____________________________
I have a VCA coming that I was doing in this one, but it needs its own post.
Ugh, I’m just so fuckin
good
holy SHIT
Thought I could hold it in to go for the win but I just gotta admit it — I am a wolf, bnuuy and tictac are my partners, and I did exactly everything you just described and I fucking nailed it bro
I even claimed wolf like 5 times and nobody limmed me
In post 11310, Klick wrote:Let's talk a bit more about 4-3 vs 4-2-1. I think the latter is faaaar better a position for town.
In post 11311, Klick wrote:ESPECIALLY if FL actually is mafia. He'll just die to wolves.
In post 11312, Klick wrote:SUPER ESPECIALLY because neither of us trusts this town to coordinate.
Like you want this town to enter 'have to agree all together on the scumteam' territory
When we could just rely on the scum doing this for us, when they've shown to be pretty damn good at hitting each other
Basically I'd like anyone who's town to have a really clear read of this and realise that we're probably not winning 4-3, while we very well could win 4-2-1.
Klick, just tell me who to vote bro, whatever
I think you’re conftown right, I’m assuming someone will tell me if I’m wrong about that
Post
Post #11339 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:25 am
Postby Menalque »
okay i also do gotta admit that wolves losing because they failed to shoot FL and then him actually winning would be incredibly funny because it meant someone threw even harder than town somehow
Post
Post #11340 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:37 am
Postby Freedom »
In post 11284, Flavor Leaf wrote:@Freedom - STD was likely a wolf kill based on being a monk. STD been one of my biggest defenders all game.
I see.
In post 11325, Flavor Leaf wrote:
Do you think Wolves ever let me live tomorrow night, and risk me being Mafia and winning this game after all of this?
This is ironically the #1 reason that I am not really a threat.
I seriously don’t see anyone risking this unless they truly truly don’t believe I am Mafia.
Thinking about your question, regardless of your alignment, only the Werewolves benefit from your elimination in the end.
Another thing which I found interesting is that even if you are Mafia, you won't benefit from a Werewolf win.
Thus, I would say that this post definitely got me completely swayed.
Post
Post #11341 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:41 am
Postby Freedom »
However if we are limming in a pool of Menalque, bnuuy and tictac.
I would be happier if the order was bnuuy then Menalque then tictac.
With that though, I would like to wait a bit longer before casting my vote.
Post
Post #11342 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:55 am
Postby Klick »
In post 11335, bnuuy wrote:would rather do 4-3 as that's just a skill issue, 4-2-1, if we don't hit the 1, becomes RNG
I hard disagree and I want you to dive deeper into this.
You want a 4-3 in this game because then the game will be determined by the town's skill. How much confidence do you have in this town's ability to all accurately identify each other and vote together against the three remaining wolves?
Then, you argue that 4-2-1 is 'RNG' if we don't then vote Mafia tomorrow. First of all, what is RNG about either scum team's night kills? Wolves are very likely to kill FL; Mafia are very likely to kill tictac. What are your reads on these players? That should be influencing whether you think this is a valid play or not.
The actual odds of town winning increase if we aim for wolves today, even if the actual control is out of town's hands. And control being out of town's hands is a good thing when there is not confidence in the town's ability to pull off ELo cooperation.
Unless someone's read for the wolves is like exactly Sword/Mena/X, I don't think town should be willing to induce ELo.
Post
Post #11343 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:03 am
Postby bnuuy »
I don't have a confident solve for wolves on any level, I've been meaning to read associatives but the game length makes it uninviting to do so
would also have been easier if any other wolves had been flipped
what makes you think neither team kills you?
“Merely by existing, we hurt each other.
But it’s not always intentional.”
Post
Post #11344 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:04 am
Postby Klick »
What town needs to realise here is that the Wolves are so far ahead that the Mafia kill has strictly town utility. Getting rid of it is ridiculous. It's like voting out an actual Vigilante in this position until significantly later if Mafia get lucky.
Similarly, because that utility is so high, Wolves must aim to eliminate it.
Post
Post #11345 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:07 am
Postby Klick »
We are the weakest influence of the three alignments right now, bringing only an elimination that can have scum influence if we're not careful. The scum are much more threatened by each other.
This one is a bit scarier for me in the chance I’m wrong on the team, because Menalque is the one in the three I feel I would be wrong in at this point, even though it goes against my VCA.
My gut tells me Menalque is town, my brain says he’s a wolf, my heart says listen to my brain.
That means I’m leaning him wolf, but some things he says, like the “sig this if we ever in a game” line give me pause.
However, him specifically pushing me saying that line is off considering if he thinks I’m scum, it wouldn’t matter for him to sig, which could be TMI him knowing I’m town?
Post
Post #11347 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:12 am
Postby bnuuy »
let's say night 7 starts 3-2-1
the only good outcome is both scum crosskilling
wolves hitting mafia or town and mafia misfiring results in 2-1-1 wolf majority, with the only possible outcomes atp being wolf win or draw
wolves hitting town and mafia hitting a wolf results in 4p kingmaker (which might be more prisoner's dilemma than kingmaker but it's still bad)
even both teams shooting you is not great because atp it's a situation of the mafia needing to townside or the wolves win, and I feel like it's pretty likely someone just gets it wrong and wolves just end the day there, at which point they're all but guaranteed to win
“Merely by existing, we hurt each other.
But it’s not always intentional.”
