Mafia 86 - mafia.gif - Game Over!

[Jebus]

Super Massive Post Time (or at least, part of it )

First off, a repost of who's still here and who's gone (copied from the first post):

Alive (16/24)
01- skitzer
02- Haschel Cedricson
03- Seraphim
04- armlx
05- Cybele
06- Erratus Apathos
07- curiouskarmadog
08- Ku_F
11- hasdgfas (TheSweatpantsNinja)
12- farside22 (DynamoXI)
14- Jebus
18- massive
19- ShadowGirl
20- Rush
23- Sierra
24- BlakAdder

Dead (8/24)
17- populartajo - vanilla townie - lynched on Day 1
15- Stef - japanese mafia member - killed on Night 1
16- ooba - cult leader - murdered on Night 1
10- Empking - vanilla townie - lynched on Day 2
09- Electra - greek mafia member - assassinated on Night 2
13- GhostWriter - japanese mafia member - killed on Night 2
22- sekinj - japanese mafia member - murdered on Night 2
21- Tarhalindur - tracker - slain on Night 2

So we've got more japanese mafia, probably only one more.
We've also got a few greek mafia members left, based on the japanese mafia, there'd probably be three of them.
Then we've got the rest of the cult which can't recruit since ooba is dead. Either way, there's one or two cult members left (possible that the cult started with two people, and one more from night one.
Then the possible serial killer.

So 6~ scum to get rid of. We've lost a tracker and two vanilla townies, so we're probably not in bad shape.


Anyway, on to the good stuff.

First page and a half contain a bandwagon on me. While it may be partly random, I still think it's noteworthy enough to give the five an FoS. GhostWriter, armlx, Tarhalindur , Erratus Apathos, and ooba. Three of them are dead, two of them were mafia/cult. So there's a moderate possibility that Erratus and armlx are scum.

FoS: Erratus, armlx

Page three, we get populartajo jumping on my wagon. Turns out vanilla later.
We also get something else of interest, TSPN (who was replaced by hascow) in post 56. Take a look at it. Though it may be the random stage, I still think it seems noteworthy, and also makes me look at the Haschel Cedricson wagon.
The Haschel Cedricson wagon contained curioskarmadog and TSPN. So not really a wagon then, but

FoS: curiouskarmadog, hascow

all the same.

Page four, I ask for the randomness to stop and to get on a wagon to three votes from a lynch. My reasoning behind that was 1) because random stage makes it too hard for me to tell the difference between jokes and seriousness, and because 2) I felt like getting the show on the road. Bandwagons are a good place to start.
Populartajo makes a vanilla claim out of nowhere.
TSPN is the first to make note of the claim. He came in ten posts later.

FoS: armlx, massive, cybele

(they were all in the posts before the note of Populartajo).

Page five has an interesting exchange between Cybele and armlx, worth looking at.

FoS: Cybele

.

Not much of interest on page six. Sierra suggests pressuring Stef, and an exchange between armlx and populartajo.

Page seven, sekinj comes in with good evidence on populartajo, but no vote yet.
Stef points out he's being defended by being insulted.
Curiouskarmadog seems to be defending populartajo with synonyms.
Armlx tries to move off the topic by calling the points populartajo made rediculous.
Curiouskarmadog tries again to defend populartajo.
Shadowgirl tries to shutdown the discussion on the above, as armlx did, by using similar logic.
Sierra posts using only non-commital (as Tar said) questions.

FoS: curiouskarmadog, Sierra

Page eight. Some good stuff by armlx, and a bit more something from Sierra. Massive comes in with a late vote on populartajo.

FoS: massive

Page nine, BlackAdder seems to know populartajo is telling the truth in his claim, but strangely still votes for him. The rest of the stuff pertains mainly do already dead town and scum.

FoS: BlackAdder

Page ten, BlackAdder seems to be defending Stef (scum), and curiouskarmadog makes a somewhat moderate case against BlackAdder. Haschel Cedricson also contributes a bit to the pot, and voted populartajo, again with good reason.
Armlx calls curiouskarmadog's case chainsawing, which I can agree with.

FoS: BlackAdder, curiouskarmadog

Page eleven through thirteen, we fall apart. Populartajo loses it, and we get chaos with even a doc claim. Note: Curiouskarmadog makes the hammer against a claimed doc. Not worthy of an FoS, but still noteworthy.

Day 2, page thriteen and fourteen, we get a five vote wagon on BlackAdder. TSPN notes the "japanese" before the mafia, and asks if this means more than one mafia.

Page fifteen, not too much. Something about skitzer's defense of BlackAdder is putting blips on my scum-o-meter.

FoS: skitzer

Will finish up later. My list is as follows:

curiouskarmadog
BlackAdder
massive
armlx
Cybele
Skitzer
hascow
Sierra

Everyone else.

[armlx]

possible that the cult started with two people, and one more from night one.

No, its not. Cults that start at 1 member are strong enough as is.

So we've got more japanese mafia, probably only one more.

What makes you sure on this?

[curiouskarmadog]

post 650 is a joke..cant wait for a follow up.

so I get an FoS for "defending Pop"...but dont get an FoS for the hammer?

I assume that list is for just reading to page 15?

[curiouskarmadog]

also follow up question, why am I the top of your list full of Foses..but when you posted on 10/16 you didnt say any of this?

[armlx]

post 650 is a joke..cant wait for a follow up.

I agree I want to see what final conclusions are drawn, but as for straight up joke I'm not quite sure yet.

[Jebus]

Armlx: I'm not sure of this, that's just a rough estimation. Two four-person scumgroups = 8/24, boils down to a scum-town ratio of 1:3. With the cult on top, and possible SK, it makes the game pretty balanced.

curioskarmadog: I didn't say anything on 10/16 because I had only skimmed through the recent pages (13-17~).

I also didn't FoS the hammer because I found populartajo to be superscummy.

And yeah, I only went from page 1-15 on that. The other part coming next time I get a chance.

[armlx]

Armlx: I'm not sure of this, that's just a rough estimation. Two four-person scumgroups = 8/24, boils down to a scum-town ratio of 1:3. With the cult on top, and possible SK, it makes the game pretty balanced.

Except people usually count the cult and SK in their scum counts.

[Sierra]

First page and a half contain a bandwagon on me. While it may be partly random, I still think it's noteworthy enough to give the five an FoS. GhostWriter, armlx, Tarhalindur , Erratus Apathos, and ooba. Three of them are dead, two of them were mafia/cult. So there's a moderate possibility that Erratus and armlx are scum.

FoS: Erratus, armlx

I don't get this part. How does the fact that GW (mafia) and ooba (cult) (and Tar (town)) were voting you imply that armlx and EA are scummy for voting you too? Especially with the game still early in the random voting stage at that point, this argument holds no water. It looks more like an OMGUS argument to me.

Your FoS on curiouskarmadog and hascow for voting Haschel Cedricson is also based on random votes. I don't see how you think that's noteworthy.


How are the replacements doing with their catching-up?

[armlx]

I don't get this part. How does the fact that GW (mafia) and ooba (cult) (and Tar (town)) were voting you imply that armlx and EA are scummy for voting you too? Especially with the game still early in the random voting stage at that point, this argument holds no water. It looks more like an OMGUS argument to me.

This.

[gorckat]

How are the replacements doing with their catching-up?

About to post a brief update. I'd read just about all of day 1 when I glimpsed a comment about how bad pop and emp had behaved (up to where I was, I get why pop got the rope), and then I saw how the kills went down and that there were a lo of bodies laying around.

I'm on lunch right now, so I hope to get at something posted shortly.

I was beginning to look at the dead scum to see what clues I could glean from them. I've never played a 2 scum group, so this is kinda cool

[massive]

I also didn't FoS the hammer because I found populartajo to be superscummy.

If you found pop to be superscummy, why do I get an FOS for my "late vote"?

[gorckat]

Not keen on Shadowgirl. Hard to say why. Just gut over some of the Sera exchanges.

[hasdgfas]

How are the replacements doing with their catching-up?

I was going strong yesterday then saw the wonderful CPU QUOTA screen and gave up for the day. I'll try to get something up in the next half hour or so though while I catch up some more.

[hasdgfas]

Pages 13-20

Post 304 - CKD: I dislike the beginning of this post. Reverse of the "doc's dead" tell.
Post 306 - Empking: This is pretty much the same thing as CKD. Don't like it.
Post 315 - Empking: You're voting CKD for rightfully hammering a scummy player, yet using his reasoning to FoS BA? Really?
Post 318 - Empking: This doesn't make any sense to me
Post 326 - seraphim: I don't like how he says that "clearly" there was a crosskill. We could have a vig, an SK, or something else that makes the kill.
Post 327 - ShadowGirl: I don't like this post. Starts with "awesome night" and then quickly votes a fast-moving wagon.
Post 328 - skitzer: How do you know he was a mafia goon? Also, wonderful non-committal response to the BA wagon.
Post 334 - BA: That's not a defense, as far as I can tell.
Post 335 - seraphim: Still not doing anything though.
Post 349 - Rush: First off, that vote doesn't count. Second off, speed lynching? Really?
Post 350 - EA: Why not?
Post 357 - Sierra: I hate people who do this.
Post 369 - Empking: For what? hammering? that's just silly.
Post 377 - Rush: I don't like this. Suspicion spread out? Why is that a good thing?
Post 383 - sekinj: This post feels off to me for some reason.
Post 390 - Rush: Don't like the defense of Empking here.
Post 401 - ShadowGirl: Don't like this post.
Post 402 - Empking: And yet his one action is scummier than everything BA has done? This is ridiculous
Post 411 - Electra: Oh hi. I forgot you're in this game.
Post 414 - Ku_F: This seems quite noncommittal to me. I don't like it.
Post 427 - ShadowGirl: *head is slamming against desk*
Post 446 - Empking: Yes you did. I'm sure you had thoughts about the claim the first time you read it.
Post 463 - Empking: "Dodging" an insult isn't dodging. It's just ignoring it because he should.
Post 475 - ShadowGirl: I don't like this either. Seems too nice.
Post 476 - Seraphim: NO! Don't mention jesters unless we know there's one in the setup. I hate it, it just distracts the town.
Post 477 - ShadowGirl: You still haven't taken a stance on him though. Gah.
Post 480 - BA: Um. This is not a post with any content. Just info about Jesters, it seems off to me.
Post 485 - ShadowGirl: *sigh* I really hate ShadowGirl at this point. Her posts seem to be inane or defenses of other suspicious players.
Post 492 - ShadowGirl: So?
Post 498 - Empking: Pure WIFOM.
Post 499 - GW: This seems a bit too nice at this point in time.

Thoughts:
I really want to lynch ShadowGirl
BA is a bit off.
Rush may be new, but he's still scummy.
seraphim has mentioned a jester and some other things that have been off. I find him scummy.
ku_f has been noncommital most of the game.
emp just needs to be gone.
skitzer hasn't seemed right all game.


That's it for now, hopefully I can get something else up soon.

[farside22]

Just for a laugh hascow. you will happy to know empking was lynched. Granted he was town, but he was very anti town. I'm starting to think that is just his way.

[gorckat]

I've seen it mentioned by a couple folks so FWIW, I also think Sera's mentioning a Jester was scummy and not productive. I forget their join date, but it could have been a purely newbish mistake (jumping at the thought that shadows might in fact exist).

If I hadn't known my alignment when reading, I'd have called Sera anti-town.

[massive]

If I hadn't known my alignment when reading, I'd have called Sera anti-town.

Is there something in your alignment that precludes you from calling Seraphim anti-town?

[armlx]

I've seen it mentioned by a couple folks so FWIW, I also think Sera's mentioning a Jester was scummy and not productive. I forget their join date, but it could have been a purely newbish mistake (jumping at the thought that shadows might in fact exist).

If I hadn't known my alignment when reading, I'd have called Sera anti-town.

Classic apologizing for replacee's mistakes.

FOS gorckat

[gorckat]

Well, I figure I'd let people know I see things that they may have wanted to push/question Sera on, so I brought it up.

Is there something in your alignment that precludes you from calling Seraphim anti-town?

I meant that from a neutral point, I would completely get why the Jester stuff is a red flag.

Sera was, and I am, aligned with the town.

@armlx: Can you point to a history of players replacing in as scum that apologize for the mistakes made before them? Can you show an equal weight of townies that don't?

[gorckat]

Rather, can you show that more scum than townies apologize for mistakes made by the replaced player before them?

[ShadowGirl]

Post 327 - ShadowGirl: I don't like this post. Starts with "awesome night" and then quickly votes a fast-moving wagon.

I was suspicious of him since day one - not much else I can say on this matter.

Post 475 - ShadowGirl: I don't like this either. Seems too nice.

I'm asking a question, I don't see why I can't do it in a nice tone.

Post 477 - ShadowGirl: You still haven't taken a stance on him though. Gah.

I thought it was odd how he was acting - I thought that he might be a jester, or

Post 485 - ShadowGirl: *sigh* I really hate ShadowGirl at this point. Her posts seem to be inane or defenses of other suspicious players.

It's a perfectly valid statement - he was playing akin to that of a jester.

Post 492 - ShadowGirl: So?

I don't want an accidental hammer, seeing as how fast the votes were piling on.

[skitzer]

hasdgfas, I hope you replaced for someone, because if yo did not notice Empking's lynch, there is something very wrong.

[armlx]

@armlx: Can you point to a history of players replacing in as scum that apologize for the mistakes made before them? Can you show an equal weight of townies that don't?

I don't have a statistical backing outside of what I can remember form my own play. Sorry. I haven't Jeep'ed the tell. I know from my past play though that I have done it at a disproportionate rate as scum, but no lie if you asked me to point out the exact games odds are I couldn't.

[armlx]

EBWODP: That said, of the games I replaced into that are done that are my sample size, I was scum a disproportionate number of times IIRC, so its possible my sample was skewed by that.

And one example I remembered was the Mini Love game with ABR and Farside in it where I replace Jex. ThAd was mod.

[hasdgfas]

hasdgfas, I hope you replaced for someone, because if yo did not notice Empking's lynch, there is something very wrong.

I am reading through the game and making observations without looking at the first post summary. I find it's a better way of replacing in than reading the first post and backwards reading the game.