Mini Normal 2275: Roguelikes - Day 3: Endgame!

[Confidently Wrong]

lol sorry irrelephant u were right earlier that i just towntunneled BBT for pushing the same shit as me 100% bc we were both proscumming

[Confidently Wrong]

ok i found the sequence from Shoshin where they start to hard push Loft a big reason why I found Lowell viably scum despite the push on scum. I remember now. Because I percieved Shoshin pushing Loft similarly hard as Lowell pushing Loft.

If like anyone cares about my process or anything

[Confidently Wrong]

Ok. I can't say with my reread that I can confidently remove Lowell from my bottom 4, *but* I have BBT as the bottom person based on the new interactions. Like scum MO was pretty clearly to distance but not do anything with it.

[Confidently Wrong]

VOTE: BBT

[Confidently Wrong]

By new interactions I mean ones that I have recently found and actually processed properly and assessed.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

OK.

Things are getting interesting.

[MalcolmTucker]

On the one hand CW's sudden push of BBT could be seen as very opportunistic given it's likely their most viable route to escape elimination.

On the other hand, I feel like CW would have known this a while back and the push on Lowell had rather evidently been going nowhere for a while. Shfiting onto BBT - or at least away from Lowell - at an earlier opportunity should have surely been a more advantageous move for scum.

[MalcolmTucker]

Still fundamentally reckon last scum is in one of the two. Personally I'm relatively keen on vigging one and voting out the other.

[Confidently Wrong]

On the one hand CW's sudden push of BBT could be seen as very opportunistic given it's likely their most viable route to escape elimination.

On the other hand, I feel like CW would have known this a while back and the push on Lowell had rather evidently been going nowhere for a while. Shfiting onto BBT - or at least away from Lowell - at an earlier opportunity should have surely been a more advantageous move for scum.

if you look I was already becoming less sure on lowell last night (irl) when lowell started posting more, this is just the end of that natural progression. because I still need to find a "who" to move to from there and before that I felt sure that everyone else was town.

[Irrelephant11]

On the one hand CW's sudden push of BBT could be seen as very opportunistic given it's likely their most viable route to escape elimination.

On the other hand, I feel like CW would have known this a while back and the push on Lowell had rather evidently been going nowhere for a while. Shfiting onto BBT - or at least away from Lowell - at an earlier opportunity should have surely been a more advantageous move for scum.

One of them is certainly exploring for a viable way out this game day

[Confidently Wrong]

I believe in self pres as either alignment unless I believe I need to confirm my slot as town to prove a point. So NAI for me, BBT did instant hammer me in a recent game for even breathing in their direction implying they could be scum.

But here it feels different in that they pushed kenny right away when thread consensus was to kill them then swapped to me when my wagon started building. Self pres isnt scummy but it is when you push any wagon that will go over.


I have concluded that it is plausible BBT pushed Fred over Lowell here due to having a stated in game townread on Lowell as well as Shoshin having a townread on Lowell thus making that wagon unviable for both of them and making it harder to go there.

[Confidently Wrong]

Had they had better gametstate analysis it would have been clear that loftwing wouldnt go over and strictly allowing the lowell wagon to happen was the smarter play anyways and no need to case fred. The case can be explained by scum panic, as to why make such an unwise move.

[Confidently Wrong]

And their reaction to being pushed is frankly, just very weak while compared to how lowell has been reacting to being pushed, which is objectively actually towny. I would include myself as an example of a towny reaction to being pushed but thats controversial and I can point at it post game for the people who don't want to believe me.

[Enchant]

If Vig is compulsive, why he skipped last kill though.

[Irrelephant11]

Last kill was vig kill. Mafia missed or holstered

[Enchant]

Wait why the fuck we assume that.

[Confidently Wrong]

because mala was in the PoE.

[Enchant]

But Mafia would think Mala is Vig.

Like whatever okay i guess.

[Confidently Wrong]

it is almost certain that mafia have a rolecop because a backup rolecop flipped

[Lowell]

The mechanical case for Dunn/Kenny is that slot claimed vt. Scum going to have a nightmare time unless we eliminate some prs for them. Fancy/enchant slot is a problem, plus a vig, plus whatever prevented a kill last night. With me now being less certain on CW (and also lowkey starting to wonder about irrel), I’m good taking what to me is still the likeliest and also certainly the safest elim.

[Confidently Wrong]

and we suspect a compulsive vigilante exists because obviously a) mafia flipped n1 and b) a compulsive vigilante backup flipped

[Lowell]

I’ll admit at this point I’m only getting more confused, not less.

[Lowell]

and we suspect a compulsive vigilante exists because obviously a) mafia flipped n1 and b) a compulsive vigilante backup flipped

Right. And given the math someone drew out earlier, I kinda feel like scum has to find vig today. Vig is not Dunn.

[Enchant]

The fact that Backup is compulsive doesh't mean original Vig is compulsive.

[Lowell]

I guess. Seems weird not too tough. Either way, probably someone scum would want to find.