Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)

[ribwich]

Either hp didn't think that all the way through, or he's trying to get suspicion onto BM. There's no way BM's plan could have been used to save a scummate. It either confirms oEJo as town and gets him modkilled, or it doesn't and we lynch him.

[bird1111]

Vote Count:
oEJo (7): CarnCarn, Moses le fou, ZazieR, Empking, hp [leaves], ribwich, Save the Dragons
Save the Dragons (1): Riceballtail
Battle Mage (1): SocioPath

Not voting (6): PutaPuta, armlx, oEJo, ZTR, Sineish, Battle Mage

With 15 alive it is 8 to lynch.

Lynch Method Vote Count:
Rope (9): Save the Dragons, Empking, Moses le fou, ZazieR, ZTR, CarnCarn, hp [leaves], ribwich, armlx
Gun (5): oEJo, SocioPath, Sineish, Riceballtail, Battle Mage


Not voting for a lynch method (1): PutaPuta

If a lynch were to happen without any change in lynch method votes, the Rope would be used.

[ribwich]

Mod, you have hp [leaves] voting and not voting at the same time.

[oEJo]

I've already addressed your point above. Oejo has 48 hours to post his role pm, or my vote goes on.

BM

You should be voting me because you said you would?

FoS: BM

Yes, I'm resigned to my lynch at this stage. Yes, I'm fine with that. Yes, I'm town, I will still be doing as much to help the town as I can before I'm lynched.

[CarnCarn]

Unvote: oEJo

I want to talk about this some more.

[CarnCarn]

A post from before the third Neighbor group was revealed:

I am a neighbours with Santos.

armlx and CarnCarn are also neighbours.

As armlx has already pointed out, this setup of neighbours is most likely symmetric. It just makes sense.

If Santos, for some obscure reason flips town, I'm assuming armlx and CarnCarn are scum - I doubt this though.

I'm quite sure one of armlx and CarnCarn are scum.

Somebody on the rope wagon should vote gun now.

Emphasis added. In this post, oEJo explains his reasoning behind his symmetry vote for Santos, arguing that because he is town himself, Santos must be scum, and that one of armlx and I must also be scum.
This is logical, of course, but also heavy WIFOM. In a more recent post:

The only reasons I'm suspected are:

a) I didn't read Santos' PM-claim carefully enough
b) armlx and CarnCarn seem town. (and thus I am either in the T-S1 group or T-S2 group)

Yes?

Are you actually now saying that you think both of us are town? Or are you saying that it is just a general impression that should be wrong?
The weird thing is, Santos only suspected you after you used the symmetry argument against him yourself. Even before you revealed yourself as his Neighbor, people had said that, by symmetry, one of each group would be scum, but he didn't believe it:

I just can't believe oEJo was so quick to put me on the stocks...I mean, why not try chatting one night with each other at all? How can he assume such simple logic that I am scum without referring to anything else?

Of course, he doesn't have any inside information about oEJo's alignment or anything, but all of this just made me step back and reconsider the symmetry theory.
I saw nothing as blatantly scummy from oEJo, although, with a rather sparse posting record (and basically no new thoughts after the third mason group was revealed), it's hard to gather much anyway. What I'm worried about is assuming oEJo is scum and leaving the rest of this to the symmetry theory.
I can see the mod just as easily putting in 2 T-T pairs and one S1-S2 pair just to throw us off the track and not semi-break the game by lynching exclusively Neighbors based off a symmetry idea, essentially punishing us for employing this type of strategy, which seems like it would favor town under the current symmetry argument.
Basically, my fear is that, in the worst case scenario, the town lynches 4 protown Neighbors and basically loses if it just sticks to this strategy.

So, what are people's thoughts? Do you think a T-T, T-S1, T-S2 pattern is likely or is the mod more likely to make the pairings so that town would be punished for lynching along the lines of the symmetry argument? Like I said, after thinking about this a bit more, it seems just as likely that the mod would choose the latter setup as he would the former.
I'm especially interested in hearing armlx's thoughts since I think he originally brought up this symmetry idea.

[SocioPath]

I will still be doing as much to help the town as I can before I'm lynched.

By baiting BM to vote you while you are at L-1? I fail to see how that is townie at all.

That, your questioning of Santo's alignment after it had been revealed, and your pushing of his lynch based solely on that fact that you're neighbors, and I'd say there is no logical SANE chance that you're NOT scum.

[CarnCarn]

By baiting BM to vote you while you are at L-1? I fail to see how that is townie at all.

Well, if oEJo was really scum, there's no need to "bait" someone to hammer him, because he could just self-hammer. Of course, he doesn't and since the hammer vote can be incriminating if he flips up town, he won't do so if he is town. "Baiting" someone you think is scummy to hammer you, if you are town and about to get lynched, seems pretty protown to me.

[ribwich]

You should be voting me because you said you would?

FoS: BM

That was under completely different circumstances when BM said that. Now we know it won't help town at all if you do that. Plus, I don't even think it's been 48 hours since then.

So, what are people's thoughts? Do you think a T-T, T-S1, T-S2 pattern is likely or is the mod more likely to make the pairings so that town would be punished for lynching along the lines of the symmetry argument? Like I said, after thinking about this a bit more, it seems just as likely that the mod would choose the latter setup as he would the former.

I very much think that there is just a good of a chance of it being some other symmetry with the intention of throwing us off like that. That's why I don't even think we should use the symmetry for voting people, only for determining which weapon to use against them if we lynch someone in the neighbor groups.

[armlx]

At this point I fairly confident CC + myself is the T-T group, though if you asked me who of STD and HP was the scum I don't think I could give a legitimately solid answer.

Guess that leaves oEJo.

[CarnCarn]

Guess that leaves oEJo.

So you don't see this alternative as a reasonable possibility?

2 T-T pairs and one S1-S2 pair

[Battle Mage]

I've already addressed your point above. Oejo has 48 hours to post his role pm, or my vote goes on.

BM

You should be voting me because you said you would?

FoS: BM

Yes, I'm resigned to my lynch at this stage. Yes, I'm fine with that. Yes, I'm town, I will still be doing as much to help the town as I can before I'm lynched.

As far as im aware it hasnt been 48 hours. Certainly it wasnt when you originally made your query.

BM

[Empking]

Personally, I don't think a two scum pair is very likely.

[armlx]

Guess that leaves oEJo.

So you don't see this alternative as a reasonable possibility?

2 T-T pairs and one S1-S2 pair

No, I don't.

[ribwich]

Unvote: oEJo

There's a possibility that I think a lot of people if not everybody has overlooked. I want to make sure about this before commiting to a lynch.


oEJo, other than the fact that your name would be switched with his, did you have the exact same role PM as Santos?

[bird1111]

Sineish has not picked up his prod, so I am looking for a replacement.

[bird1111]

Santos II replaces Sineish.

[oEJo]

Unvote: oEJo

There's a possibility that I think a lot of people if not everybody has overlooked. I want to make sure about this before commiting to a lynch.


oEJo, other than the fact that your name would be switched with his, did you have the exact same role PM as Santos?

Yes, I don't have a night action.

[ribwich]

Okay, that was all I needed to hear.

Vote: oEJo

I wanted to consider the possibility that there were similar roles that were just written differently for the sake of throwing us off.

[CarnCarn]

Santos II replaces Sineish.

lol

I wanted to consider the possibility that there were similar roles that were just written differently for the sake of throwing us off.

Huh?

Also, what is BM's position on oEJo now that he knows he won't post his role PM?

[ribwich]

Since we had already mentioned alternate symmetry that could be used for punishing us for using it, I was thinking there was a chance a similar thing was done with the role PM's. oEJo could have been a pro-town neighbor, but with his PM being written completely differently. I knew the chances were pretty slim, but I wanted to at least look at it.

However, since oEJo has said they had the exact same role, that rules out that possibility.

[CarnCarn]

However, since oEJo has said they had the exact same role, that rules out that possibility.

You are ruling out the possibility of alternate symmetry because oEJo has the same role PM? I would think that makes the alternate symmetry

more

likely. Also, if you believe he does have the same role PM (and it seems like you do, since you said it rules out alternate symmetry), why are you voting him?

FoS: ribwich

[ribwich]

No no no. You misunderstood me. I said it rules out the possibility of alternate role PMs being used for the same role. I still very much believe there could be alternate symmetry.

[CarnCarn]

No no no. You misunderstood me. I said it rules out the possibility of alternate role PMs being used for the same role. I still very much believe there could be alternate symmetry.

OK, but how does any of this explain your re-vote?

Unvote: oEJo

There's a possibility that I think a lot of people if not everybody has overlooked. I want to make sure about this before commiting to a lynch.


oEJo, other than the fact that your name would be switched with his, did you have the exact same role PM as Santos?

Yes, I don't have a night action.

Okay, that was all I needed to hear.

Vote: oEJo

First of all, do you believe oEJo is telling the truth about his role PM being the same? From everything I've read, I think you are believe this.
Second, if you do believe this, why did you choose to vote him again?
If you don't think he is telling the truth, then how are you ruling out the possibility of alternate role PMs?

[ribwich]

First of all, do you believe oEJo is telling the truth about his role PM being the same? From everything I've read, I think you are believe this.
Second, if you do believe this, why did you choose to vote him again?
If you don't think he is telling the truth, then how are you ruling out the possibility of alternate role PMs?

No, I think he's lying scum. I worded that question like that because if my true intentions came out I knew I wouldn't get a real answer out of him. I was considering the possibility that oEJo could have gotten something like this for a role PM. "You and Santos are neighbors and can talk at night You win when all anti town roles are dead." It's the same role as what Santos and the other pro-town neighbors have, but it's worded completely differently. This would have explained why he didn't think Santos's claim was legit. I knew it was a long shot, because it probably would have came up earlier, but I wanted to at least test it.

When I asked him this, I was asking "town oEJo" if he got the same PM. If my above theory was right, he would have told me that they did get different PMs. But, since he said they had the same PM, when we already know they don't, this confirms for me that he is scum.