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[GuiltyLion]

I will be going through every slot in depth over the next few days

do you have any initial hot takes / gut feelings on who you think is mafia?

[DeasVail]

I will be going through every slot in depth over the next few days

do you have any initial hot takes / gut feelings on who you think is mafia?

I don’t

[DeasVail]

I thought it was fire and it not being Fire leaves me lost and unsure.

[Ausuka]

I don't think the NRG would pass gated SK, that sounds like a horrendously unfun role. I agree if Titus is SK nero probably yeeted ari n1 or something

and even then if she's SK it's still also weird that HEM claimed modified vig. That means if Titus is SK he got remarkably lucky with a complete BS claim that perfectly slotted in with the one town modified vig, or scum had to have knowledge of marci's role somehow

I don't think this is that weird though, he didn't actually claim even night vig, modified vig is a pretty vague claim to make

[Ausuka]

I like to think I'm fairly familiar with normal rules? The only way for scum to kill multiple people is a mafia babysitter which obviously didn't happen here

[Ausuka]

I agree shea rushing the hammer isn't scummy

I don't really buy into VCA stuff personally but I understand people disagree with me about that

[Ausuka]

I want to iso obscure at some point today as well

I feel like dv is the ~easiest explanation~ but like masons thought it was shea so if they're right i'm going to get flamed postgame if i'm lazy about this lole

[Ausuka]

Imagine if we go to all this effort and titus is actually sk and wins by doing nothing

[DeasVail]

ugh I promise it's not me

I know that doesn't mean anything, but y'know

[Ausuka]

ok but is it a pinky promise

[DeasVail]

I'm skim re-reading the game. I haven't decided what I think of the whole Titus deal yet, but it's probably scum keeping Titus alive deliberately to create paranoia. Other than that EVERYONE is an option. I do kind of want to go over the datisi/scamper re-read later but will form my own thoughts first.

--

Datisi suspicion:

This is a vaguely interesting part of the early game!

Page 12: HEM and Ausuka are kind of double-teaming town-Datisi here which in my mind means Ausuka is slightly more likely to be town.

383: Relly also being like "YEAH GO HEM VOTE DATISI" - Much more enthusiastically townreading HEM than Ausuka for pushing Datisi, which I was mildly townreading but suddenly backing off in 571 was a bit... hrmm after the enthusiasm. Not sure.

Page 27: Balter-Ausuka reactions (on Ausuka's end) just

feeeeel

real.

1080 is mildly +town from GL. But I think Ausuka NOT voting VPB and instead going with Datisi (who from Ausuka-scum's perspective is mostly being suspected by scum), is even more town because with Ausuka as scum it would just seem incredibly unlikely to scum that Datisi would seriously get mis-eliminated there.
Hmm.. not sure about the +town for GL -- too much talk of how he would join a VPB wagon "if it got going"

I can't really townread the vote on VPB from GL in 1449 because if scum with VPB then he was already caught out by Datisi.

Also on reflection it was interesting that scum didn't really bite on the Eiralox suspicion despite it seeming town-led. Maybe GL-scum?

--

Okay leaving it at page 60 for tonight. I'm pretty sure there was later stuff from GL that led to my townread on him so my early-game suspicions could be all for naught. My main thought so far is that Ausuka is most likely to be town.

PEdit: Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[Ausuka]

i had to go look thru ur topic history to remember what that was >.>

and i think i specced for a grand total of like four pages >.>
but congrats for endgaming it looks like

~

i think i have to say gn now ... i am eagerly awaiting to hear more abt gl's scamper vote on the morrow

what's up gamers!

VOTE: marcistar

why aren't you voting?

VOTE: scamper

@vp yours look liked rvs vs this is gl's entire iso and i want to know what prompted the change; the timing felt quite odd / i didn't really see anything that scamper did in between to prompt the change

Is it dumb to think this looks sort of partnered

[Ausuka]

I know I should realistically just make a wallpost like DV is but

1) I hate formatting on mobile

2) I think we should make this game 400 pages

[Ausuka]

i have townpings on ydrasse and skitter

why skitter? I dont think skitter is very town at this point

i have townpings on ydrasse and skitter

why skitter? I dont think skitter is very town at this point

its just a ping but i felt the townreadon ydra was sufficiently out of the box wherenone of her posts were conventionally townie so scum would be less likely to give a townread on those posts knowing its more likely to get weird looks

eh

This feels kinda tmi to me

Not the part where he doesn't townread skitter but in the early game DV content was sparse and I am unsure why he specifically commented on scamper's skitter read here

[DeasVail]

I didn't come to a decision either way on the skitter-GL stuff. In the end I don't think it ruled anything out, but also didn't rule anything in.

PEdit: Skitter really wasn't very town though!

[Ausuka]

Ok I mean I know it's frustrating if you're town and just very smart but it feels like you maybe had some insider knowledge there

I also think your refusal to pinky promise is very suspicious

[Ausuka]

"It means it seems like you made it up and now you are covering poo with ~vibes~" is how you're planning to catch scum!Ausuka?

Like 399 is a good reason for pushing Ausuka's Nero read but also not sure it matches with you just kinda shading Ausuka for having a viberead. You can be a townlean for 396 though, so maybe I'll just drop this

townier than rand:

skitter, ydrasse, vpb, scamper, fireisredsir, nero cain, HEM

Scummier than rand:

guiltylion, datisi, maybe deasvail

???:

gamma, deasvail, aristeia, marci, firebringer, xofelf, [people who haven't posted]



This is not a readslist anyone should sheep I'm mostly just organizing my jumbled thoughts before exiting the thread

Upon reread I have decided everyone is scum actually

I don't know why past Ausuka didn't suspect this?? Maybe I skimmed over it or something

[Ausuka]

like i'm not out here saying GL is being overly negative, i don't think so, but i understand the pov that can think so and call it out post-by-post

This feels significant but not entirely sure what to make of it??? Part of me feels like HEM's treatment of GL is partnery because he's bullying up to Relly without like actually pressuring GL but also if you're doing this do you really to out of your way to talk about how you are not scumreading GL

[GuiltyLion]

ugh I promise it's not me

I know that doesn't mean anything, but y'know

Not gonna lie I kinda gutfeel this is a townie post lol

I should absolutely not put any stock into it but ahhh my heart

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think this is that weird though, he didn't actually claim even night vig, modified vig is a pretty vague claim to make

I guess let me be clearer on my thinking

1) we know Titus is not groupscum because multiple kills on N2
2) if Titus is SK, that means mafia team was exactly 4 goons and could not have had information on town PRs
3) after n1, mafia would know of the existence of another killing role due to multiple kills
4) HEM claimed modified vig on D2... why? At this point there'd be no reason to suspect a town vig is gated, it doesn't work as a fakeclaim to draw out a full vig, why claim vig at all? Why not claim something like an investigative or other form of PR? I guess I just don't see what HEM hopes to gain here if he had no knowledge of the set up whatsoever

However, typing this out made me realize that if it's 4 mafia goons in a 21 player set up, they probably have to think there's a third party or something helping them out? Cause otherwise that's pretty stacked against them lol. So maybe scum was already suspecting presence of a SK from the beginning if we're in that world?

I also haven't thought much about Enchant being universal back up. Is two modified vigs + three masons + universal backup against 5 scum a balanced setup? What could the 5th mafia role be to help them, and what are the odds that's the last person we'd flip before going through all 4 goons first?

Maybe I should be more suspicious of Titus. It sucks that Nero replaced out cause not shooting HEM on N2 is still overall pretty bizarre

[Thestatusquo]

I don't think this is that weird though, he didn't actually claim even night vig, modified vig is a pretty vague claim to make

I guess let me be clearer on my thinking

1) we know Titus is not groupscum because multiple kills on N2
2) if Titus is SK, that means mafia team was exactly 4 goons and could not have had information on town PRs
3) after n1, mafia would know of the existence of another killing role due to multiple kills
4) HEM claimed modified vig on D2... why? At this point there'd be no reason to suspect a town vig is gated, it doesn't work as a fakeclaim to draw out a full vig, why claim vig at all? Why not claim something like an investigative or other form of PR? I guess I just don't see what HEM hopes to gain here if he had no knowledge of the set up whatsoever

However, typing this out made me realize that if it's 4 mafia goons in a 21 player set up, they probably have to think there's a third party or something helping them out? Cause otherwise that's pretty stacked against them lol. So maybe scum was already suspecting presence of a SK from the beginning if we're in that world?

I also haven't thought much about Enchant being universal back up. Is two modified vigs + three masons + universal backup against 5 scum a balanced setup? What could the 5th mafia role be to help them, and what are the odds that's the last person we'd flip before going through all 4 goons first?

Maybe I should be more suspicious of Titus. It sucks that Nero replaced out cause not shooting HEM on N2 is still overall pretty bizarre

I pointed this out yesterday (I think?) and I believe ausuka said they think its balanced relatively?

[GuiltyLion]

I don't really buy into VCA stuff personally but I understand people disagree with me about that

What do you think about my point for TSQ town though, that's not really as much "VCA" as it is "how often do you see an entirely pure 9 person wagon on scum"

[Ausuka]

I understand where you're coming from with hem but shrug I feel like mafia just claim vig sometimes? It doesn't seem like the sort of thing we can solve exactly, I guess is what I'm trying to say.

I think i could see the NRG passing this with 5 scum or 4 scum and a sk, which i guess isn't exactly helpful but whatever

pedit: isn't that like exactly what VCA is

i mean, i don't really agree with looking for X scum on Y wagon. i don't think it really matters who was on the wagon there, and i don't think TSQ trying to get hammer really influences his odds of being scum... like... at all?

[Ausuka]

I also feel like most of the mafia were just like

not posting at this point?

Like I don't think either obscure slot or hem slot was really posting

So arguments about X amount of the scum on the wagon just seems like, I don't think this is really normal cirucmstances for that

[GuiltyLion]

going to actually do a quick pass of this specific part of the game...

Morning Tweet (5): DeasVail, Nero Cain, Frogsterking, Dannflor, fireisredsir
obscure (4): Datisi, Ausuka, Ydrasse, GuiltyLion
DeasVail (3): marcistar, Enchant, obscure
Thestatusquo (1): Cat Scratch Fever
fireisredsir (1): Thestatusquo
Not voting (3): Something_Smart, scamper, Morning Tweet
Day 1 will end in (expired on 2022-09-18 20:44:00). With 17 alive it takes 9 to eliminate.

Here we have two dueling wagons on scum. if TSQ is scum then both these wagons are entirely pure and literally all four unflipped mafia are voting elsewhere. Gamma's been replaced by Tweet (who is posting but has not claimed), obscure is flaking out and hasn't posted, TSQ is obviously around and posting a lot. CSF is also in the game and posted several times at this point, though is still presumably not at all caught up.

This is exactly where I'd expect scum to be doing

something

about both wagons being on scum, even though there's a fully absent teammate being wagoned. IMO the safe and better play would actually be probably to bus obscure, he's out of the game, it gives Tweet time to catch up overnight. TSQ probably can't do that however because they've already voiced a ton of suspicion on Gamma.

I mean i still think gamma was scum but I'm still alarmed by how everyone told me i was wrong and then happily jumped on.

VOTE: tweet

I guess I could imagine this being a bus vote, frankly. Makes sure to remind everyone that they were already scumreading Tweet slot, while also casting suspicion on the wagon, possible set up for the next day.

Followed by Datisi and Ausuka hopping on fairly quickly:

VOTE: tweet

y-2

actually reading her iso this game, this feels really polarized, and the fact that she's so quiet and accepting of her wagon makes me feel like she has accepted her death. she was going mad in chara's folly. which maybe isn't a fair comparison considering she just repped in here, but uh yeah feeling this lethargic is scummy anyways i think.

if she is scum, then i would not be surprised if she is being bussed and that feeling partly came from her teammates. this is moreso post hoc thinking after seeing fire vote there, but i think it could have some merit either way.

i don't think i have enough brainpower for this game day to actually do some Deep Thinking about fire's alignment, but it is only day two, there is tomorrow.

VOTE: tweet

Tweet does rhyme with yeet actually

I guess I could post more stuff today but I'm lazy and like... Tweet is in her scum meta apparently and CSF is self resolving... Whatever

Then we have the unvote:

UNVOTE:

Didn't we agree to not do the L1 thing because enchant.

I guess the main question is, is this performative? I feel if I were scum I'd just stay on MT here so I have my nice lil spot on the wagon I worked hard all day to earn. What does scum!TSQ gain from unvoting here other than towncred for looking like they don't want to rush the day? Is that reason enough to unvote a wagon you know will flip red?

I guess typing this out I do feel it looks worse for TSQ than I had imagined, I could see scum doing that performative unvote, especially given this:

Frogsters unvote feels performative.