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[GuiltyLion]

Also, since people are going back to the early game again:

also heya relly

hi! I think you're town because people scumread your entrance to the game in the same way I've seen people scumread you as town like 12 times

I don't have any strong scumreads except, like.... datisi? I sure hope the silent slots are scum

Nero harped on this a lot the whole game, how Relly refers to something that just wasn't happening (people scumreading skitter's entrance), it's simply not grounded in facts. Was Nero right about this being scum-indicative after all?

am I talking myself around back into Shea here based off DV's posts today?!?! stay tuned

[Thestatusquo]

Shrug, I think I'm pretty obviously town so I'm not going to fight too hard. There's a reason that I started as number one in the PoE and it kept flipping over to me.

I'm not really sure who I think is scum and honestly it feels like a coin flip to me anyway. I think any of the remaining player list could be scum given that I don't think any of them are from an objective reading them as scum standard.

I'm not sure how much effort I'm going to give her because I don't really feel confident on figuring out who it is and I also don't even really think limming me is that bad necessarily from a game state perspective because I'll probably be the easiest miselim at limlo anyway tomorrow.

[Thestatusquo]

I will say dannflor being killed is probably because he was the person strongly town reading me the most and scum knows I need to be in the lim pool.

But that's wifom and he was widely town read anyway so not that strong a point.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think anyone is obviously town anymore at this stage, whoever is last mafia remaining already survived two miselims and is playing a strong game (unless we're in the world where SK!Titus is coasting off of fortunate coincidences and faulty mech-spec by the town)

Ausuka's my strongest TR but that's primarily off of interactions with VPB on D1, and even that I am going to have to revisit and re-examine, so idk. if you have a reason why you think you're "obvious" town I'd like to hear it but it feels like not really a meaningful or genuine assertion here. I'm town but I can totally understand people finding reasons to be suspicious of me now that we're in 5p and the prior suspects flipped green

[Titus]

This feels very much like an elo game...which is why I didn't shoot.

[Ausuka]

Titus is the assertion you're making that we have 6 mafia in a 20 player game?

I am sort of confused

Do you have any reads other than TSQ scum for eod

[Ausuka]

I feel the same, though I'm wishy washy on if it makes VPB scum or not

I changed my mind again

I feel like it's very unusual for mafia to describe themselves as wishy washy about their partner and being unapologetically so

It seems like a counterintuitive take for Relly to make and this reminds me why I thought he looked uninformed earlier

[Titus]

Titus is the assertion you're making that we have 6 mafia in a 20 player game?

I am sort of confused

Do you have any reads other than TSQ scum for eod

My reads are largely vca driven. 6 conftown (3 masons, 2 vigs +UB). 6 scum makes sense.

[Titus]

I am stalling to see if play matches.

[Ausuka]

I don't feel like it does? 5 scum in this game is already an above average ratio, didn't we just play a game of this size with only 4 scum and a bunch of power roles?

[Ausuka]

I mean if people think there is 6 scum I am happy to do that

I am cautious of the idea because it strongly goes against all of my balance expectations.

I am also curious why you voted so early if you think this is an elo gamestate.

[Ausuka]

I mean if people think there is 6 scum I am happy to disucss that

I am cautious of the idea because it strongly goes against all of my balance expectations.

I am also curious why you voted so early if you think this is an elo gamestate.

[Titus]

I mean if people think there is 6 scum I am happy to do that

I am cautious of the idea because it strongly goes against all of my balance expectations.

I am also curious why you voted so early if you think this is an elo gamestate.

I voted so early to see if you'd jump (hence the early unvote).

My balance expectations are there should be as many scum as conftown. 6 conftown therefore 6 scum.

[GuiltyLion]

I feel the same, though I'm wishy washy on if it makes VPB scum or not

I changed my mind again

I feel like it's very unusual for mafia to describe themselves as wishy washy about their partner and being unapologetically so

It seems like a counterintuitive take for Relly to make and this reminds me why I thought he looked uninformed earlier

I think this is a decent point but I wouldn't weight this significantly above the totality of the rest of evidence

not trying to sway you either way as I'm still unresolved on DV vs TSQ, this is a point in TSQ's favor, but I don't think it never comes from scum

[Ausuka]

GL am i crazy here

i cannot imagine this being even closed to balanced with 6 scum and the idea that we would have no way of knowing we are in elo, with 6 scum, in a game with vigs

it just does not seem like something that would pass ever to me. i would pass this with 4 scum before i passed it with 6

[GuiltyLion]

yeah 6 scum seems like it would be way too much and I also don't think the game has

felt

like a 6 scum game with how hard it was to secure consensus on pivotal eliminations in the midgame

especially since the vigs (if there are two) are gated, yes each are confirmable but functionally they behave as a single vig in terms of kill power

however I also don't think scum!Titus comes up with this theory? like this kind of paranoid logic seems more likely to come from her as town here

[GuiltyLion]

the whole D3 slog of dueling Smart vs Menalque wagons seems like it'd be good to reread, I need to do that

[Ausuka]

I mean i guess by balance of probabilities titus is just town anyways

[GuiltyLion]

lol I was rereading my 5627 and I forgot about this post:

The dogpiling jokes aside I will give something_smart a chance to get involved in the game I suppose.

VOTE: Gamma

Gamma who are the scum and why

Marci

One of you/

obscure

humaneatingmonkey

And maybe someone else

wrt to obscure/TSQ this is potentially trying to set up a "one of [scum] or [scum] is scum" dynamic in her reads, to try to use a flip in either to clear the other one, giving her a trajectory to distance from each buddy simultaneously yet not needing to commit to eliminating both. I can't recall a reason to inherently think TSQ/obscure cannot be partnered at this stage in the game, it's not like they were pushing on each other especially notably or strongly, so it stands out as a particularly artificial thought, and I also don't see why Gamma would want to set up such a dynamic with a townie and a buddy

it's like... bad scum play, but I don't think Gamma is above bad scum play

[Thestatusquo]

I don't think anyone is obviously town anymore at this stage, whoever is last mafia remaining already survived two miselims and is playing a strong game (unless we're in the world where SK!Titus is coasting off of fortunate coincidences and faulty mech-spec by the town)

Ausuka's my strongest TR but that's primarily off of interactions with VPB on D1, and even that I am going to have to revisit and re-examine, so idk. if you have a reason why you think you're "obvious" town I'd like to hear it but it feels like not really a meaningful or genuine assertion here. I'm town but I can totally understand people finding reasons to be suspicious of me now that we're in 5p and the prior suspects flipped green

Was just me emoting in frustration because I prefer to die rather than live to this stage of the game.

[Thestatusquo]

I think six aligned scum would be absolutely wild in this setup.

[GuiltyLion]

when scamper fakes a gunsmith guilty on Menalque and Menalque plays it off by reiterating the VT claim:

scamper you ready for more votes on mena?

I am v confused

tbh me too. I thought it was a gambit, but I guess not!

does scum make these posts? again, I'm potentially vibe reading too hard, but these feel somewhat townie to me. idk when I'm scum I'm frequently too much of a coward to try to fake posts like these

that said, there is perhaps a universe where scum has a rolecop and got marci or Nero on N1 (explaining HEM's modified vig claim) and then scamper on N2, so they'd know he was bullshitting already.

if that had happened

, maybe scum!DV is confident enough to fake these posts. and it would explain why Menalque was able to bluff off the guilty so well imo. but they definitely strike me as more unlikely to come from scum who has no idea whether scamper has a Real Guilty

[GuiltyLion]

I will say that the presence of a gunsmith means the clear on datisi is not as strong as it was without that information. When I mod gunsmith I try to put in scum roles that don't have a gun so its not a full clear. I have no idea if doing that is normal or not.

On the other hand the two vigs already act as false positives and the roll is already balanced from that perspective mech wise so maybe it is closer to a full clear than it would be in a game I run.

That being said, I am shocked to learn that another person I was perpetually scum reading and told was town repeatedly by other people is scum.

Shocked I say.

blah this feels pretty townie too though

[GuiltyLion]

actually idk I could see that coming from scum who doesn't know that scamper is bluffing

like if scum knew scamper's role -> DV posts look worse
if scum had no idea whether scamper was lying -> TSQ posts look worse

[GuiltyLion]

some reaction tests are longer than others

...

is life just one long reaction test?

eee the joke in this one kinda gives me minor heebie-jeebies