Micro 1065 Coalition Game Over!

[Una]

In the Dannflor iso only post 32 seems harder for him to make as a wolf and all the others are neutral or even I think he would want to post it if the moon was so full and bright and he could hear its song

[Dannflor]

I agree

[Dannflor]

Una where is your
Whimsy posting

[Greeting]

The second sentence of 56 probably is a townie. Mafia like to be right. He would still want to talk about it as mafia but to argue

It is a small thing

I've said this type of stuff as scum in games before, looking approachable and ready to cooperate is often what gets you easy towncred.

HURT: Lucian

Do you think being approachable is actually

scummy

? Why did you put me into the coalition for in the first place?

At first glance the ISO seemed towny enough to just throw you in, but then, when

Una

spoke of that post, I read back and reevaluated. That post sounds really LAMIST-y.

I'm not planning on locking Dannflor in as town forerver for that single post. However, I do think it shows an amount of seriousness and willingness to solve, which I'm okay giving an early townread for.

Which post(s) from

Dannflor

's ISO make him town in your opinion?

I explained that earlier - it was 32 at the time.

What's so towny about that post?

[Greeting]

If you are hurting Lucian because post 56 is scummy rather than townie, why did you not say so before I made my post saying it is townie? And now you are hurting him.
It seems like disruption for disruption's sake rather than conviction

See above.

[Greeting]

menalque it feels like your words on unwnd don't match your coalition vote

is your uncertainty on him REAL

I wanted to put in a vote for

Menalque

after seeing his reads, but that is a good point.

HEAL: Dannflor

[Dannflor]

does making that point make me town?

[Greeting]

does making that point make me town?

Why would you be making it if you're scum?

[Greeting]

but I was being serious about not wanting either of dann or ydra in unless they obvtown

There are 15,120 possible coalitions but only 2,520 can win the game, this is a 17% chance to immediately win.

You are excluding 2 players from possible coalitions. That means you are only considering 2,520 coalitions, 17% of the ones that are allowed. (2,520 has appeared again because the number of Ydrasse and Dannflor is the same number of people as the Mafia). The probability of winning is the same but 5/6ths of the winning coalitions, on average, aren't in play so it will be much harder to subjectively sniff and smell a winning coalition.

Why is this relevant?

[Dannflor]

...to look town?

[Greeting]

...to look town?

Just because mafia can do certain things to get townread doesn't mean it's likely for them to do it. Scum are more likely to pick their battles specifically to increase their chances of winning.

I find it unlikely that a scum would decide to focus their energy on finding discrepancy between tone and actions in a slot that contributed longer thoughts to a game when it's much easier to attack slots that contributed less.

Menalque

, judged by tone, looks like an obv!town slot on first glance, but you've actually shown that you read deeper into his posts. So I think that makes you likely town and a good candidate for the coalition.

I agree with the scepticism about the

Lucian

slot too.

[Dannflor]

do you have other town reads

[Lucian]

And focusing on one of those at the time but not the other makes me mafia because...?

Everyone is focused on reads. It is strange to focus more on reads than usual. It is almost the entire game.
It is common to focus on alliances or camouflages more than usual as mafia so maybe you substituted.

I still genuinely don't understand why this is a problem. I wanted to make a post where I would outline my reads. After more-or-less planning that post out in my head, I figured I should probably also heal the people I'm townreading. I was not thinking about the "read" of my own slot, because I know my own alignment.

[Lucian]

What's so towny about that post?

Have you considered reading 95 instead of making me repeat myself?

[Lucian]

@Dannflor, do you have any other thoughts on my alignment besides the fact I didn't heal myself? And how did that thought progress for you by now?

[Lucian]

Still thinking Greeting is scum. 210 does not make any sense as a reason to townread Dannflor when you consider the nature of this setup - scum need to be closer to the top right now, not just have someone else be at the bottom - and the fact that Menalque dropped in advocating for Dannflor to not be in the coalition. Which, if Menalque is town and Dannflor is scum, is a problem if people start listening to him.

I don't think this makes Dannflor scum, I am currently skeptical of Menalque myself. But it does make me think Greeting is scum more. And things posts like 203 and 205 make it look like he's trying to really make sure that we know he is really thinking about this game and changing his reads.

[Lucian]

I

think

, if I had to pick a coalition right now, it would be me, Una, Menalque, Dannflor, and Junko.

HEAL: Dannflor, Junko, Lucian, Menalque, Una

I originally wasn't planning to even placeholder-heal this yet, but I dislike not having my vote in play properly. So I'll heal it with an asterisk that it's very much a subject to change.

Ironically enough, I've gotten to a kind-of-townread on Junko for the same reasons I didn't like her at first.

Menalque I don't townread strongly, but I did see some townie pings in his posting, and I think he's a better pick than someone like Vanders currently. I want to speak to both him and Dannflor before I commit to their votes, though.

I'm starting to feel like Ydrasse's play this game is more engineered to get people to like her, rather than to actually solve.

[Ydrasse]

Yes my goal is to be a social butterfly

[Ydrasse]

i have a rapport with about half this player list that means i’m silly and goofy with them so i see the sociability aspect but i think it’s kind of ??? to say i’m not solving lol

[Una]

Una where is your
Whimsy posting

I'm ladylike and refined.
Nobody likes whimsy posting.

[Vanderscamp]

I

think

, if I had to pick a coalition right now, it would be me, Una, Menalque, Dannflor, and Junko.

HEAL: Dannflor, Junko, Lucian, Menalque, Una

I originally wasn't planning to even placeholder-heal this yet, but I dislike not having my vote in play properly. So I'll heal it with an asterisk that it's very much a subject to change.

Ironically enough, I've gotten to a kind-of-townread on Junko for the same reasons I didn't like her at first.

Menalque I don't townread strongly, but I did see some townie pings in his posting, and I think he's a better pick than someone like Vanders currently. I want to speak to both him and Dannflor before I commit to their votes, though.

I'm starting to feel like Ydrasse's play this game is more engineered to get people to like her, rather than to actually solve.

This is a great post, I don't think scum would give this read on junko

[Vanderscamp]

I also agree menalque is a better pick for town than me, the content they've given this game is much improved from the one game I've played with them that I remember where they were extremely obvious scum.

[Una]

But.. you would rather be in the coalition than him, right?

[Dannflor]

Spoiler: my lucian greeting solve? feedback pls

I still think Greeting and Lucian are scum together. I tried to reread the game without the lens of confbias but I probably just fooled myself into thinking that I did that.

Scum are incentivized to bus each other in this setup. It's slightly higher EV for scum if one of them is outside the coalition and one of them is within it. After all, if the coalition fails, all eyes are turning towards the coalition to find scum first, and the longer it takes to hit scum within the coalition, the better it is for scum. Now, there is a lot of WIFOM involved with this, of course, but intuitively, I think it makes sense for scum to want to distance early in this game.

So far, I find the dynamic between Greeting and Lucian to be the most awkward and unnatural out of any dynamic in this game.

@Dannflor, do you have any other thoughts on my alignment besides the fact I didn't heal myself? And how did that thought progress for you by now?

I didn't actually think that made you scum. I made that reason up when you asked me because I wasn't ready to talk about this yet. I am now.

I think you seem anxious to explain every inch of your trajectory on every slot. Your focus seems to be more on showing how Town you can be and not so much on testing other people's alignments.

When you make a post like 95, I get the sense that you made it in order to show that you are thinking about the game, but I don't get the sense you actually care about what thoughts are in it. If you say something like "her reasons for townreading me are not great," I don't understand why that wasn't something you prodded Una on before you made such a post town reading her for that.

I suppose the best way to explain it is that you just feel not very curious. When you make posts like 101 or 212, it doesn't read like you're asking questions or continuing a line of discussion in order to discern alignment, it feels like you are continuing a line of discussion

in order to argue about it

. When you do ask questions that are ostensibly to determine alignment, it feels like busywork. Asking Menalque why in 184 or me about my read on you in 214 feels hollow when you vote us for your coalition anyway and ostensibly town read us already. There's no attempted pressure really. It feels like you're just going through the steps you think you should have to go through before you can "lock-in" your town reads on us. I mean, is Menalque explaining those three reads going to drastically change your read on him?

I think I expect more dynamic play from you as town. Like when you poke slots it seems half-hearted, I'm not sure how to express my feeling beyond that.

I also really keep coming back to 212 and wondering why you made it. It doesn't feel like its purpose is to sort Una's alignment, especially because you happily threw her in a coalition shortly after.

I am also skeptical of your motivation for posting 215 after you had already made 186. There is a disproportionate amount of your words devoted to scum reading Greeting versus town reading other slots.

======

As far as Greeting goes, I am predisposed to scum reading posts like 66 that feel like scum wanted to make a solid entrance into the thread but was awkward about making Actual Content.

The scum read on Lucian is just kind of over the top and as Una already observed, 120 feels like the conclusion of the post came before the thought.

122 is a strange post to make as town because it means Greeting isn't curious enough about Lucian's alignment to actually read his posts, despite ostensibly scum reading him at this point? Or maybe just not town reading Lucian is the more appropriate characterization here. Still, I would expect scum!Greeting and town!Greeting to read and respond to town!Lucian's 95 because Lucian namedrops Greeting in that post and people are super sensitive to their name being dropped.

So, the conclusion I draw is that Greeting is interacting with Lucian for the sake of interacting with him. I do not get the sense that either Lucian or Greeting care about sorting the other's alignment.

What's so towny about that post?

This is kind of a question that has already been answered by multiple people in thread and I think a townie with curiosity would be on a deeper level at this point in their conversation with Lucian. It's also like never followed up on and just again feels like Greeting is interacting with Lucian in a hollow way.

Empty question tell can also be applied to 208. There are many other much more alignment indicative things to pick Una about. These questions look like busy work.

======

This wall got too big.

UNVOTE:

HEAL: junkochan, menalque, una, unwnd, ydrasse

I think Vanderscamp could go in here but he's a little harder to town case than everyone else. The comfortable acknowledgement of their non-obvtowniness in "No, good question though!" to Una in 118 feels gut townie to me. Maybe it's excitement about the game without forcing it? They seem to be playing slow and not too stressed about being in the coalition. Could mean their buddy is someone like Lucian or ydrasse who is really trying to be in the coalition but I don't really feel it.

Menalque is towny, I think. It's a little counterintuitive as scum to open the game by alienating two townies. I guess I have to consider a Menalque/Ydrasse team. I guess if I am honest I think a Menalque/Ydrasse team is slightly more likely by the fact that Menalque probably won't vote for a coalition with Ydrasse in it. But my gut feeling was that their interactions on Page 7 were not scum theatre and that 154 was a Good Post. Still, as I'm typing this Menalque/Ydrasse is suddenly my paranoia solve.

I think Occam's Razor they are just town though and ydrasse did a cute thing I think where she healed me because she mind melded with me and that's +town just because having that background Actual Thought Process about the game is hard

I subscribe to the Ydrasse theory of Junkochan. I think Junko seems excited about the game but not stressed about showing she is town.

Una similarly seems interested in the game but not stressed about showing she's town.

unwnd same thing. I will actually case these people if wanted but I don't think the town reads here are unpopular and there are a lot of little things that will make this wall too big.

[Dannflor]

Lucian where did unwnd go in your coalition