Mini Normal 2285: GM [game over]

[innocentvillager]

Are you townreading gera now, Freedom?

Not yet.
I feel like their refusal to claim feels a bit odd.
Though, I would consider them nullish.
UNVOTE:

His refusal to claim is +scum.

Geraintm's scum strategy can be broken down into three layers of defense:

On the first layer he disappears whenever possible, hoping that others will forget he is present in the game. (His absence of meaningful thought and refusal to get involved with the content between 332 and 572, not to mention most of the discussion which he lurked actively through between his posts 18 and 330.)

On the second layer he pretends to be meek and humble, hoping that others will feel sorry for him and vote someone else. (330, 763, 767 -which is refuted by pookythebear in 836 and 838-, 854 which is unbelievable, 857, etc.)

On his third and final layer he creates intrigue and confusion about his role, hoping others will become uncomfortable with the ambiguity behind his refusal to claim and move on to someone else. (894)

I see.
I had thought that his refusal to claim was just a playstyle oddity.
Though, it does seem like maybe it isn't as I thought.
VOTE: gera again.

I thjnk refusal/cryptic/drawn out claiming is on average quite towny in my empirical experience. Scol’s theory is like possible but it’s more of a hindsight/confbias narrative kind of read imo

I don't agree with this by the way and your vote switch makes me raise my eyebrows a little bit.

Obviously you don’t because you literally argued directly against it, it’s just where we beg to differ.

What exactly raises eyebrows other than the fact that I’m just voting for you now?

[innocentvillager]

There is a very nonzero chance we are just wasting our time on two town wagons and scum is sitting back laughing but whatever

[innocentvillager]

Uh bub check his role

My trolls are too cryptic I guess

[Val89]

There is a very nonzero chance we are just wasting our time on two town wagons and scum is sitting back laughing but whatever

Are you actually going to sit there and tell me you thing it is likely town!gera actually thinks it is in towns interest not to claim here?

If so, I think you have a very low opinion on their level of intelligence.

[Val89]

I mean even a VT who thinks to leave their claim ambiguous in hope that town will by some miracle give them enough benefit-of-the-doubt to move elsewhere in frustration, then scum might waste a shot on them has already demonstrated enough critical thinking ability in having that thought to know scum would have to be so poor as to get caught anyway if that is something that happens in a game with an outted informed IC when they are being proposed as a member of some many scum solves by basically the entire player pool as to be a realistic mislim for the rest of the game.

He is either scum or throwing. The other option, that gera is so stupid as to not see how he is throwing as town is a possibility that is so unlikely as to be disproved by the very fact he is here actually playing mafia with us and has won games as scum in the past with his strategy, which takes as least some base knowledge of how the game works. I don't see any other option here, and I'm trying desperately to make anything else fit.

[innocentvillager]

I think he needs to claim too

I have seen town refuse to claim immediately many many times

[innocentvillager]

That first paragraph might be one of the longest sentence I have ever read lol I thought my sentences were long

[innocentvillager]

I’m sorry I literally cannot parse what you’re saying in that paragraph my dumb head exploded

[innocentvillager]

Just because someone disagrees with you doesn’t mean they’re stupid or scum I guess is my first thought

There are points for and against him claiming and my opinion is that the pros outweigh the cons

You are sitting there saying “here are all the obvious pros if he’s town he’s stupid for not seeing eye to eye with me on this”

I think he’s made clear that he’s not claiming because of some cons that could be reasonable to him and also only he knows his role in theory. I’m not saying he couldn’t have made this up as scum, that’s why I’m not defending him

[innocentvillager]

I'm starting to think that you have some role that is rare for Town to have.

Yes and geraintmn doesn't have a fake claim prepared yet so he's milking the mysterious card.

This is a really bad take

No scumteam “stalls for time” like this

[innocentvillager]

If geraint is scum he is doing exactly what you said earlier, just delaying and creating mystery and intrigue around the role in hopes people will move off. He is not scrambling to find a fakeclaim and stalling, he has one ready. There are 3 people on the scumteam

[Val89]

Yes, I am aware that is something I need to work on.

I mean, I am desperately trying to find any realistic reason why town!gera would refuse to claim here; and the thought occurred to me that maybe he is a VT who hasn't accounted for the extra town value in claiming in this specific game with Toto in it (and how +scum not claiming is here), and is hoping to get away with not getting limmed if they don't claim, then bait a NK.

I decided that nobody can realistically believe that scum would actually take that shot at themselves while they have so much mislim potential (I think every scumteam I have seen floated in the last couple of days has gera as a member) and Toto exists.

Is that better?

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: Geraintm

I didn’t realize he only have 4 votes

Please claim geraint

[Val89]

Yeah, I see how it is.

UNVOTE:

I'm not ready to take gera's word for it on the self-hammer question, but my vote is ready to add to the gera wagon when necessary.

+1. Please claim, geraintm

[geraintm]

I shall say again, I am not going to claim I have a role.

I love that people sit there and say I am dumb for my views....and I haven't even mentioned that I think town should not eliminate anyone day 1....

[geraintm]

I thinknthere are 3 scum btw

[geraintm]

There is a very nonzero chance we are just wasting our time on two town wagons and scum is sitting back laughing but whatever

I think exactly this

[geraintm]

On his third and final layer he creates intrigue and confusion about his role, hoping others will become uncomfortable with the ambiguity behind his refusal to claim and move on to someone else

I suppose this js true.
As I have said, I am not claiming anything.
Day 1 where scum whip round loads of wagons forcing a succession of claims is not good for town.

If anyone thinks my stance on claiming has been plucked from nowhere to try and escape pressure now, I said thr above a while ago and i believe it stands now

[innocentvillager]

I shall say again, I am not going to claim I have a role.

I love that people sit there and say I am dumb for my views....and I haven't even mentioned that I think town should not eliminate anyone day 1....

...then how would we get a Day 2 with any information? Your whole shtick is to see the alignment of the D1 flip and push off of that right?

[innocentvillager]

On his third and final layer he creates intrigue and confusion about his role, hoping others will become uncomfortable with the ambiguity behind his refusal to claim and move on to someone else

I suppose this js true.
As I have said, I am not claiming anything.
Day 1 where scum whip round loads of wagons forcing a succession of claims is not good for town.

If anyone thinks my stance on claiming has been plucked from nowhere to try and escape pressure now, I said thr above a while ago and i believe it stands now

No one thinks that (at least I certainly don't, sounds kind of dumb)

[innocentvillager]

I shall say again, I am not going to claim I have a role.

Do you not want to claim on D1 when you get run up in general? Is it because Scol already claimed? Is it because of the nature of your role? Help us understand so we can talk you into doing it

I know you said that you don't like running up too many people on D1 and that sentiment is somewhat understandable to me. I believe Val for example laid out a bunch of reasons why it's better for you to claim. Another relevant thing seems to be that Toto's information can help town and your claim might assist in that. Please discuss these issues in more depth or claim.

Because if you don't claim we are actually just going to kill you

[innocentvillager]

Based on your recent posting, it sounds like if Scol hadn't claimed then you wouldn't be as opposed to claiming. So every claim in your eyes is severely -EV to town. Is that correct?

My question to you is: Do you really think the difference between 0->1 claims is not as large as the difference between 1-2 claims?

I would say no, and I think you need to present a compelling argument if you believe otherwise.

The fact of the matter is, Scol has already claimed, we cannot change that 1 person has claimed. So if you would claim if Scol hadn't claimed but not right now, I suggest you reconsider it from a logical perspective.

[innocentvillager]

If you are not going to claim, I think you should at the very least genuinely look at it from the perspective of an uninformed townie in this game and suggest a reasonable course of action. I know you think Scol is townier than not, but we have to do *something*. You can bombshell a case on someone else if not. Make a case for that something even if you feel like it's choosing between the best of a few bad worlds.

[innocentvillager]

You can bombshell a case on someone else if not

I personally don't think this is very realistic, to be clear, so it has to be something that you think we can practically do

[Ydrasse]

towm

[val89, innocentvillager, gera (?), unwnd (..?), toto]

the rest

[herta, pooky, freedom, dannflor, kittytacky, scoliosis, skitter]

VOTE: scoliosis

i'd vote anyone in the rest pile but i'd need like actual cases or reasons for some (pooky, dann, kitty, skitter)

i think val's um. reasoning around gera last page comes from town because it's a shitty thing for a wolf to accuse something of