Mini Normal 2285: GM [game over]

[KittyTacky]

If I claim a role, then town flails to a different bad wagon.
It may well force another town member to claim, all good for scum.

If I claim vanilla and town forces through an elimination of me, well you can all deal with that outcome because there was nothing I could have done today to stop that.

So I repeat I think it is best for town that I not claim.

CLAIM.

FUCKING CLAIM.

YOU WILL DIE IF YOU DON'T CLAIM.

YOU DON'T WANT A TOWNIE TO DIE, DO YOU?

I don't want to die no. Being green, I want to survive.
I have also said repeatedly that I am not going to claim a roll, I think scum switching through wagon after wagon to get multiple claims doesn't help town.
I have also said if I do make a claim, eliminate me on the spot.

I do think my day 1 thinking is at the extreme wing of mafiascum play, I acknowledge that. And many will.call it irrational, but it is what I think..
I've tried all through today to tease out why people are voting for me and respond when there is an actual argument or point out when there is no obvious reason for their vote. But people haven't engaged with these attempts and people are now fixated on the claim thing and I am giving no one a blank cheque to say "we had to vote them because they were stubbon" as a GOOJFC.

That switch can hit scum! But if we don't switch we will hit town... if you're town, you know you are town. So you lower the expected value of day 1 even more with your play. Oh my God this is just horrible play and it's been nuking my townread of you.

Here's an ultimatum.

Claim within 4 hours or I hammer, and thus (assuming you're town and not scum trying to play off your town meta), a townie dies. No ifs, ands, and buts. Your next post should contain a full claim. Any claim will result in me not hammering or voting you without another good reason.

Kitty you hate policies but isn't this literally threatening a policy hammer...? I'm confused

Because 1. My townread has been eroded by this braindead play, like sure scum has no reason to do this but neither does town. 2. I don't see another way to get a claim out of Gera. Anyways, since Gera probably didn't come online yet, the ultimatum's deadline has been extended by 8 hours. I'm going to sleep, if I wake up and there's no claim from Gera I will hammer.

[innocentvillager]

Fairs

Tik tok people

[Val89]

like sure scum has no reason to do this

Wrong.

The reason for scum doing this is the same as any "too scummy to be scum" play.

Scum know that fakeclaiming in this game, with Toto, is so much more risky that normal. Usually, if you are scum running a fakeclaim play you are hoping either a) your claim isn't CC'd, and deflects the wagon on to someone else and you live another night and hopefully get another mislim out of the deal and b) even if you luck out and it is CCd, you've drawn out a TPR for your buddies as compensation for your loss.

This game, there is a chance option B just isn't happening - instead of being CC'd by the TPR, Toto says "Actually, your claim contradicts my info" and your lim is guaranteed without gaining scum any new info. Refusing to claim in the hope that we get inpatient and go flash wagon someone else - particulary with deadline approaching - is the absolute best play for scum here.

I find it interesting that despite the public narrative that gera is putting out (and yes, it doesn't really make sense anyway) of "D1 sucks so I never play it, but I'm town, I don't want to be limmed, I don't want scum to get more claims than necessary D1" - the only other bit of information that had to be teased out of him is "I think Sco is town and I would rather he not be the counter wagon either, go for Freedom, unwnd or Dannflor". I think it's worth in that any of those suggested counterwagons seem particularly realistic, and if they were, they risk forcing another claim. The obvious counterwagon that does achieve their objective is also one with realistic prospects of going through is also the only one they don't want - and remember: it's the only real TR gera has in the entire game and it's based on "scum!sco wouldn't burn his thread cred on me".

I say this for the same reason I pushed back against IV. "He is almost certainly town"; "scum has no reason to do this", etc are the exact thoughts that this play is designed to elicit, and they are incorrect. For one, I don't think scum!me would ever find myself in a situation since it's a consequence of his "fuck D1" strat, but I did find myself in a game where I looked like I was going over; I couldn't safely fake claim, and a VT claim was probably a death sentence, I absolutely would play it like this, with the upshot that maybe town fall for it and I do deflect the lim - so the assertion that scum has no reason just seems wrong to me.

[Val89]

I think it's worth pointing out that none of those suggested counterwagons seem particularly realistic, and if they were, they risk forcing another claim.

EBWODP

[innocentvillager]

Show me a game where scum actually did this

[innocentvillager]

Part of scumhunting in this game involves exploiting the meta not do what is theoretically correct assuming everyone is mixing strategies optimally

[Val89]

Show me a game where scum actually did this

Not sure what you are getting at, here.

Show me a game with an IC who says "I may be able to check role claims" and "I want to hear any further claims today before I release what I know to get max value." right before the point scum would normally have to decide if they are going to fake claim...

[innocentvillager]

I should’ve read your paragraph more closely before I posted that, I see what you’re saying and there’s definitely merit to it

It doesn’t change my strategy here. I am not going to switch off of gera if he doesn’t claim

[innocentvillager]

I think even with Toto’s possibility of revealing some information about geraint like you should still probably just go for the claim

In a normal game your claim has a chance to be proven wrong anyway

I agree the chances are slightly higher here but I doubt this information could Really increase the risk “that much”

Anyway I’ll concede that it’s possible the scumteam is thinking like that though. I still don’t think it’s as likely as the alternative

[Freedom]

I think that nobody should hammer until Toto claims their info.

[Val89]

@Toto: Having looked in your ISO to quote that "I want to hear any further claims today before I release what I know to get max value." bit, something occurs to me: Only you know what you are sitting on, but do you think there is 'enough' value in it to massclaim?

I realise how much that would piss gera off, and maybe that's one reason I hope it just might...

[Toto]

K I think we need to do this. I’m not convinced mass claim is a good idea. It may help narrow the killpool but reveals our tpr. We can decide if its a good idea based on the info I have.

I’m conflicted because I think its relatively safe for scum to claim VT in this set up. But I don't see a way out of limming gera at this point.

All mafias are ninjas. I think that says a lot about town PRs. I think that means if there is a tracker/watcher it can be used to confirm townies. Im not sure what else to make of that. I don't think this reveals anything mafia don’t already know.

I have some extra info about town prs ill keep to myself.

[Ydrasse]

>datisi setup

[Val89]

Is https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... rmal_roles still the canonical list of what roles are considered normal, including complex set ups?

[Ydrasse]

ye looks like since it has the new roles on it

[Val89]

Okay. No objections from me to day ending here.

[innocentvillager]

I want to give geraintm one last chance to claim.

[Datisi]

prodding unwnd.

[unwnd]

Uh yeah yeah I'm here just sort of stuck in this permeating feeling of 'what's gonna happen next'

[innocentvillager]

I have some extra info about town prs ill keep to myself.

Assume you die tomorrow

Is it +scum to out this info right now?

[unwnd]

I was hoping that I didn't really need much involvement and the day would just roll over on either Scol/Gera. I'm not pressed for which one I vote or hammer, and I think I don't have anything else I want to talk about presently.

Val's point about gera 'doing a hail mary play' is interesting, but there is another part nagging at me that Scol's silence is telling

[unwnd]

It's D1 sure but it'd be nice to vote mafia and I dunno if I think Gera/Scol are just partners who happened to get double wagoned

[geraintm]

I am not claiming anything.
.

As I have said, I am not claiming anything.

I shall say again, I am not going to claim I have a role.
)

i am going to post those three above.

Im sorry that i have driven so many people to distraction today, it was never my intent.

ninja is new though. and a massclaim seems unhelpful for town?

[geraintm]

It's D1 sure but it'd be nice to vote mafia and I dunno if I think Gera/Scol are just partners who happened to get double wagoned

if we are scum together, it would have requied Scolosis to have intent to hammer me from the start of the day, and scum to offer up no other wagons at all today besides the two of is. even when i offer up 3 other people i think are sus, not even my partner went that way and i never even voted?

[geraintm]

It's D1 sure but it'd be nice to vote mafia and I dunno if I think Gera/Scol are just partners who happened to get double wagoned

if we are scum together, it would have requied Scolosis to have intent to hammer me from the start of the day, and scum to offer up no other wagons at all today besides the two of is. even when i offer up 3 other people i think are sus, not even my partner went that way and i never even voted?

just....this is a ridiculous suggestion that we are both scum and have made no effort to get anyone else pushed?