OPEN 868 - Nobility and the Dark Angel | Endgame

[Enchant]

Solve without me.

[MathBlade]

The way I figure assuming DA between Meg/Herta

We miselim -> We DA right -> We win.
We miselim -> We DA wrong -> We lose.

We no elim -> We DA right -> We win.
We no elim -> We DA wrong, scum DA correct -> 8 alive into night, scum NK 6 alive start of day -> no elim again, elo

We elim proper -> No way we lose. Possible chance to outright win on DA.

I guess this boils down to how sure we are on DA pick and elim.

[Polar Bear Express]

so let's elim and noble remaining two?

Let’s assume DA between Meg and Herta. I believe this is the common assumption. Late night will verify this later.

Assume we noble Meg and the DA is Herta and we miselim. Then scum likely DA Herta. Mafia gets a one shot dayvig.

We are at 8 alive. Into night 7 alive. DA Herta, they leave. NK someone. 5 alive into day, scum dayvig, we lose.

If you like swap Meg and Herta. If wrong same consequence.

So if we aim to win the game with DA we absolutely have to be sure on scum.

Mainly I am trying to figure out how to proceed in the safest manner possible.

It might be that we don’t try to win via DA. Or if we do try to win via DA we understand and acknowledge the risk as a group.

+1

I totally agree, there’s no reason Mafia couldn’t just hidden nobilize the one who we don’t elect tomorrow and possibly win. And that assumes all of the HN claims are true and we still have no idea wrt NM/Eira, so NM if you were trolling, now’s the time to acknowledge that.

~N

[Polar Bear Express]

Solve without me.

[Enchant]

I will be blunt.

NM trolling. Like 99%.

[Polar Bear Express]

The way I figure assuming DA between Meg/Herta

We miselim -> We DA right -> We win.
We miselim -> We DA wrong -> We lose.

We no elim -> We DA right -> We win.
We no elim -> We DA wrong, scum DA correct -> 8 alive into night, scum NK 6 alive start of day -> no elim again, elo

We elim proper -> No way we lose. Possible chance to outright win on DA.

I guess this boils down to how sure we are on DA pick and elim.

I see what you’re saying but even one vote on DA could mean we lose if wrong. Problem is it’s harder to tell who’s mafia than DA.

I think Mega might be wrong based on Junko’s posting. Can you ISO her and tell me what you think?

~N

[MathBlade]

The way I figure assuming DA between Meg/Herta

We miselim -> We DA right -> We win.
We miselim -> We DA wrong -> We lose.

We no elim -> We DA right -> We win.
We no elim -> We DA wrong, scum DA correct -> 8 alive into night, scum NK 6 alive start of day -> no elim again, elo

We elim proper -> No way we lose. Possible chance to outright win on DA.

I guess this boils down to how sure we are on DA pick and elim.

I see what you’re saying but even one vote on DA could mean we lose if wrong. Problem is it’s harder to tell who’s mafia than DA.

I think Mega might be wrong based on Junko’s posting. Can you ISO her and tell me what you think?

~N

I think mainly we need to build a town block first over DA or mafia hunting. Yes I plan on ISOing but I want to see if we can get a town block together to decide things.

Then we can determine if we elim or not and how we noble.

Defensive = Noble a TR and no elim
Offensive = Noble in Meg/Herta and elim scumread.

[Polar Bear Express]

I will be blunt.

NM trolling. Like 99%.

Okay, maybe you are town then but we have 3 scum left, so let’s say I wrongly tr Herta and the other is Mega which I think it definitely could be because she gives me very different vibes here from E/O Killers and I was always suspicious of Junko as well but that’s still only 2 if right. We’re still missing a third scum.

~N

[Enchant]

I disagree with both.

[Enchant]

I will be blunt.

NM trolling. Like 99%.

Okay, maybe you are town then but we have 3 scum left, so let’s say I wrongly tr Herta and the other is Mega which I think it definitely could be because she gives me very different vibes here from E/O Killers and I was always suspicious of Junko as well but that’s still only 2 if right. We’re still missing a third scum.

~N

Wdm 3 scum left?

There's 2 mafia. +DA. And DA is Meg/Herta

[Polar Bear Express]

I will be blunt.

NM trolling. Like 99%.

Okay, maybe you are town then but we have 3 scum left, so let’s say I wrongly tr Herta and the other is Mega which I think it definitely could be because she gives me very different vibes here from E/O Killers and I was always suspicious of Junko as well but that’s still only 2 if right. We’re still missing a third scum.

~N

Wdm 3 scum left?

There's 2 mafia. +DA. And DA is Meg/Herta

DA + 2 mafia=3 scums

[Enchant]

DA techically not scum but ok.

[MathBlade]

Just by posting alone if we elim I would say Enchant.

DA would be Meg.

I think DA Herta doesn’t really make sense I don’t think because Meg just disappearing feels really bad.

[Polar Bear Express]

DA techically not scum but ok.

DA 3p who’s wincon opposes town, so yeah.

~N

[Enchant]

DA techically not scum but ok.

DA 3p who’s wincon opposes town, so yeah.

~N

DA can win with town, they need to die for it though and not be nobled. So they don't really techically "Scum".

[Enchant]

Just by posting alone if we elim I would say Enchant.

bruh

[Enchant]

What in statement "We need to noble+elim Meg/Herta" you don't understand?

[MathBlade]

Mainly I don’t feel comfortable weighing in on betting the game or not being a replace.

[MathBlade]

What in statement "We need to noble+elim Meg/Herta" you don't understand?

The fact we don’t have to take that gamble

[MegAzumarill]

Just by posting alone if we elim I would say Enchant.

DA would be Meg.

I think DA Herta doesn’t really make sense I don’t think because Meg just disappearing feels really bad.

Wait I disappeared?

[Herta]

Hidden nobles: eiralox, enchant, PBE
Elected nobles: Mathblade (Tapio), Not_Mafia
Not nobled: Herta, Meg

Assuming hidden noble claims are true, DA is in Herta/Meg.

HEAL: Meg

WRT mafia, I don't know.
____________

Math, there are 7 alive, so 6 into night. The VC says 8 votes because you have 2 votes. So 7 into night, 6 alive tomorrow.

If mafia select DA tonight, DA leaves so 5 alive tomorrow, 3 town 2 maf, with dayvig town loses.

If mafia do not select DA tonight, 6 alive tomorrow, 3 town, 2 maf and 1 DA.

Is that correct?

[Enchant]

Actually need to clarify something.

[Herta]

And actually if you heal me, I get two votes tomorrow right, so I think that's okay.

[Enchant]

And actually if you heal me, I get two votes tomorrow right, so I think that's okay.

Nobles don't work in Elo. Just in case.

[Polar Bear Express]

DA techically not scum but ok.

DA 3p who’s wincon opposes town, so yeah.

~N

DA can win with town, they need to die for it though and not be nobled. So they don't really techically "Scum".

No they lose if they are ever nobled. A 3p who can hypothetically win with town could be a survivor but both town and mafia wincon contradict DA wincon.

Scum is any player who’s wincon contradicts town.

~N