Mini 659: The Neighborhood- Game over on Day 6

[bionicchop2]

OK, here are my thoughts:

Crywolf should no longer be a lynch candidate today. This is simply a matter of fhq and DR conflicting each other. Fhq claims vanilla and DR claims to have info proving otherwise.

If DR is telling the truth, I firmly believe fhq is a roleblocker and wolf would be cleared.

I do not like the delivery method of holding off on the night results, but fhq has been one of my top suspects (see my vote early yesterday).

@crywolf, I think you should unvote. If scum does have a power role (or roles), then both you and DR could be legit (and if his report is true, I think you are). This would mean no scum are currently voting.

[crywolf20084]

unvote

I want to hear what fhq has to say before I place my final vote for the day.

[fhqwhgads]

DR is lying.

The reason I voted crywolf

By the time I voted crywolf I had not finished catching up and I didn't know she had claimed doc.
I just wanted to avoid the no-lynch (see below) and voted the player closer to get lynched.

Sure, or you were just bussing, because you thought crywolf would be the inevitable lynch. Or maybe Cry is still telling the truth, and you were on your way to an easy win.

The reason to avoid a no lynch

Is that in most cases it favors mafia.
If town can't decide between two players and choose a no-lynch mafia will simply kill a player that is not in danger of being lynched. The next day town will have the same doubt about the same players and will have one townie less.
The only time I agreed to a no-lynch it was a 2 townies+1 SK+1 Mafia situation in hopes scum would kill each other.

Actually, I agree with you here. I've been arguing this point since our first no-lynch. Probably your bit of 'looking townie' to add more weight to the BS claim to follow.

Oman watched

Night 1 - Ythill
Night 2 - crywolf

Last Night, I watched

crywolf again.
I would have preferred to watch Elias, but after using his one shot vig he was like another Vanilla, so I decided to watch the claimed doc again.

Nice backstory. Care to add some flavour Oman got on his results? You know, just to make this story fit better?

She was tageted by

fhqwhgads.

The flavor says something about him reading a Nursery tales book to crywolf.

The fact alone that fhqwhgads claimed vanilla is reason enough to vote him, since it's obviously a lie. So:
vote : fhqwhgads

(Bolding mine)
Lies. Could you please elaborate more on the flavour other than 'something about'?

BTW,

FOS : Ythill

After I said I would not be able to use internet during the weekend (only on Monday at work) you gave me a 24h warning

KNOWING I WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO POST

. You, sure is a great candidate for tomorrow's lynch.

Wow, setting up tomorrow's lynch as well. Nice one. But if your plan works, there won't be a lynch tomorrow.

Fine, enough with the rhetoric. Firstly, apologies to Ythill. This has almost cleared you 100% in my books. It also makes me wonder about rash's alignment, but that's an argument for tomorrow (if we have a tomorrow).

Look, I'm not going to try and give a soppy appeal to anyone not to vote me. You just shouldn't. Because town will lose. Bionic, you are either wrong (or lying).

I've just got this to say. Why wait until now? DR knew we were waiting for his investigation. He even mentioned it, and posted more than once afterwards without saying anything. If I was so obviously guilty, why wait until right before the deadline?

I have been the one complaining about votes in LYLO. I've been the one saying we should vote, rather than no-lynch. My vote is easy.

vote: Dead Rikimaru

. Town's fate is now in the rest of your hands.

It is 00:07 now in my time zone, so I probably won't be here to answer any questions to follow. But do ask, with the deadline extension (thanks mod!) I'll sure have time to answer your concerns. I won't wait until deadline to sow confusion.

[bionicchop2]

Wow, setting up tomorrow's lynch as well. Nice one. But if your plan works, there won't be a lynch tomorrow.

I am not sure this makes sense. What purpose does scum have to set up 2 lynches? He has set up a situation of you vs. him. If he is scum, he either gets you lynched today on a lie and wins, or he is lynched and nobody will care who he suspected.

Fine, enough with the rhetoric. Firstly, apologies to Ythill. This has almost cleared you 100% in my books. It also makes me wonder about rash's alignment, but that's an argument for tomorrow (if we have a tomorrow).

1. How does any of this clear Ythill?

2. Why were you never wondering about Rash's alignment?

I've been the one saying we should vote, rather than no-lynch.

DR also argued to vote instead of no lynch, so using this in your defense is pointless. In fact I would wager more scum argued to lynch yesterday than to no lynch. We already know Tony was town and nobody is arguing that Elias is anything but town. NL absolutely was the best play yesterday and I feel strongly that it was anti-town to push otherwise.

[Elias_the_thief]

This is an interesting development, and I guess one of Fhb and DR is scum, barring an elaborate distancing ritual. I suspected DR more (oman, really) but I'm not sure of what to say. I'll try to reread them both when I get home tonight.

[Ythill]

No need to apologize, fhq.

Wow, setting up tomorrow's lynch as well. Nice one. But if your plan works, there won't be a lynch tomorrow.

I am not sure this makes sense. What purpose does scum have to set up 2 lynches? He has set up a situation of you vs. him. If he is scum, he either gets you lynched today on a lie and wins, or he is lynched and nobody will care who he suspected.

It (fhq's theory) doesn't make sense, but the move from DR-scum does. I've been calling him obv-scum and he needs to discredit me or we will hang him.

I

can't wait

to hear Rash's opinion.

[bionicchop2]

I

can't wait

to hear Rash's opinion.

confirm vote Ythill

obv. disclaimer: Rash did not write the above statement.

[Ythill]

I mean in addition to that.

[fhqwhgads]

I am not sure this makes sense. What purpose does scum have to set up 2 lynches? He has set up a situation of you vs. him. If he is scum, he either gets you lynched today on a lie and wins, or he is lynched and nobody will care who he suspected.

What I meant was he was acting like he's setting up the lynch for tomorrow. Subtle, really. Because scum would know if I'm lynched, there is no tomorrow. But he's trying to look town by making it seem like he's looking at tomorrow. Makes better sense?

1. How does any of this clear Ythill?

2. Why were you never wondering about Rash's alignment?

His FOS of Ythill. Sure, it could be bussing, but in my mind, I was thinking Ythill has been pushing a bit too hard towards DR and crywolf. Now, DR is guilty as sin. I should say that it doesn't mean I believe 100% Ythill is town. But I have gone from a point where I was ready to hang him, to consider him as town. That is quite a jump. Also, my choice of words might have been unfortunate, but I was jumping from the fire into the frying pan. With Ythill now moving lower on my scumdar, rash has been the one attacking him the most. As Ythill himself said, he could be tunneling (my question to him was really just to get his clear answer), but I don't believe discussing Rash's allignment today is going to bring us any closer to surviving anyway.

DR also argued to vote instead of no lynch, so using this in your defense is pointless. In fact I would wager more scum argued to lynch yesterday than to no lynch. We already know Tony was town and nobody is arguing that Elias is anything but town. NL absolutely was the best play yesterday and I feel strongly that it was anti-town to push otherwise.

I did not miss this. I have also said in my post, I believe this was another attempt to look pro-town. Believe what you will, but I don't think arguing against no-lynch is ever pro town, unless we have extreme circumstances. Maybe we did have extreme circumstances in your eyes. It wasn't extreme enough to me though.

[bionicchop2]

DR also argued to vote instead of no lynch, so using this in your defense is pointless. In fact I would wager more scum argued to lynch yesterday than to no lynch. We already know Tony was town and nobody is arguing that Elias is anything but town. NL absolutely was the best play yesterday and I feel strongly that it was anti-town to push otherwise.

I did not miss this. I have also said in my post, I believe this was another attempt to look pro-town. Believe what you will, but I don't think arguing against no-lynch is ever pro town, unless we have extreme circumstances. Maybe we did have extreme circumstances in your eyes. It wasn't extreme enough to me though.

From my perspective, 3 people who were pro-town felt strongly about a no lynch (myself, Tony, Elias). 4 people felt strongly about lynching - you, DR, rash and Ythill. Crywolf ended up leaning towards a no lynch (she was the lynch target, so that means little). No matter how you break it down, more town wanted a no lynch than wanted to lynch (even if wolf is scum, that means 2 scum wanted to lynch and 2 town wanted to lynch).

Obviously this is from my perspective. I guess we can discuss after the game if you turn out to be town and you still feel lynching yesterday was the best option.

The rest of your post makes sense. Not that I necessarily agree with all of it, but it does answer my questions.

[Ythill]

IF he is telling the truth though, it would mean cry is possible (almost certainly) town and that would mean fhq, rash and ythill are all scum (or 3/4 vanillas).

I've been thinking about this. Fact is, it's true no matter which 'nilla point of view you look at it from (except fhq's of course). What I mean is, since I know I'm town, the scum would have to be Rash, bionic, and fhq. Etcetera.

So... and please let me know if you see another option because a false dilemma is not my intent... we have a situation where either DR is lying or 3/4 living vanila towines are scum. Which means only 3 'nillas total in the whole game, unless you count the pointless miller as 'nilla, which still only leaves four. It seems like a low number to me, even with a scum RB.

4 people felt strongly about lynching - you, DR, rash and Ythill.

I understand that you are generalizing, but I'm not comfortable being included in that

strongly

class. I was pretty clear that I was ambivalent, though I thought lynching was marginally better (and I explained why).

[fhqwhgads]

@Bionic: agreed.

Look, here's another thing to consider: Say I am town and DR is scum. That means (presumably) 2 other scum are out there. They are probably going to be cautiously try to get at least one townie to vote for me. Not that I am against it and I know it's been a short time since DR's 'reveal', but most questions and debate after the reveal has been about me. Probably trying to catch me in a contradiction under pressure.

Let's look at the other side. Me scum, and DR's town. The roles should be reversed. Yet since DR's reveal no one (except me) have been questioning him further. Like I pointed out, his 'flavours' regarding his reveal has been a bit vague, yet no one else commented on this.

I realise the above argument may be somewhat WIFOMy, but consider that he 'revealed' game changing info when he thought we were a day away from deadline, thus limiting discussion about said information. Again, why, when he posted earlier and we demanded his investigation results did he just keep quiet about it? Even posting more than once? What possible gain could it be to town to keep that information quiet for so long?

Thus, I feel, if you are town, equal amounts of pressure should be put on both me and DR. Yet DR has been quiet since his post. I'm betting he's going to be quiet until deadline.

[Ythill]

the above argument may be somewhat WIFOMy

Very

WIFOMy, actually. And it misses two important factors, one of which you elluded to at the end...

I'm betting he's going to be quiet until deadline.

I doubt anyone will take this bet because DR has shown himself to be uncooperative

and

he has internet access issues. Hell, he even mentioned the fact that he may not post again before the old deadline. The perception, at least, is that questions to DR are not going to do much good. If anyone is on the fence, they are better off getting information from you.

Second factor... of the four people (excluding you) who have posted since DR's revelation, only one has asked any questions at all. Elias and I both seem to be leaning towards DR-scum (mine is much more than a lean). Wolf has been playing her cards close to her chest. Only bionic is asking questions, so I guess the most logical thing to do is ask...

@ bionic: Why are you questioning fhq but not DR?

Here's my stance in a nutshell. Before the revelation, I was ready to lynch wolf or DR. My main argument against DR was that he had no honest pro-town reason for delaying his results (which, contrary to Rash's BS, is not the same as him posting infrequently) but that there was a viable scum strategy in delaying them: a last minute post that would either clear wolf or condemn a townie, intended to secure the mislynch or force the no lynch. Almost magically, DR has posted a revelation that clears wolf

and

condemns another player. DR has even managed to strengthen my belief that he and fhq are not likley to be scum together.

From my perspective, not much has changed. What has changed? Wolf is no longer a

viable

lynch (boo). I am even less

viable

as a lynch (yay). And wolf is no longer voting for DR (surprise, surprise). Now that we have new info and a deadline extension, I do intend to do a reread (probably tomorrow), but I can't imagine that I will come back from it believing that

both

DR and wolf are town.

@ bionic: I'm still thinking about that 3/4 'nillas as scum point and I have two more questions for you. You said that the revelation

almost

certainly clears wolf. Would you explain how you see it not clearing her? Also, assuming you as town, the theory identifies the scum as myself, fhq, and Rash. How likley do you think it is that Rash and I are scum together?

[fhqwhgads]

@Ythill: Yes, I am aware of the WIFOM (which I downplayed). I also am aware that not enough people have participated to make my argument completely viable. Normally, I would have waited for more responses before posting that, but time is of the essence.

You say I missed two things. It is not clear to me what the second thing is. I'd also like to hear bionic's response to your questions. I have, however, if this plays out in town's favour, a pretty clear idea who I think is scum (bar maybe one person). At the moment I think it's in everybody's best interest that I keep that to myself, unless you can convince me otherwise.

Hint: I'm not on my scumlist

[bionicchop2]

@ bionic: Why are you questioning fhq but not DR?

The simple answer is because I don't have any questions for DR right now and I don't plan on forcing questions just for the sake of asking both.

The longer answer is that there really is nothing in the content of DR's posts that really needs to be clarified. The scumminess all came from today and the delays in posting. Obviously the internet issues have been a major factor in limiting the number of posts.

The question fhq asked about the detail of the flavor has an obvious answer (I won't answer for DR though).

Coming into today, fhq had moved to my top suspect spot (he was my only vote yesterday). This is the main reason my questions have been for him. DR's claimed results just happen to be a perfect claim if fake. It answers my question as far as why scum would even attempt to kill Tony (had somebody who could prevent wolf from saving) and it identifies my top suspect as the culprit. I will go a little more into why I think DR may be telling the truth after I answer your next question.

@ bionic: I'm still thinking about that 3/4 'nillas as scum point and I have two more questions for you. You said that the revelation

almost

certainly clears wolf. Would you explain how you see it not clearing her?

If true, it would be 95% clearing in my mind. Depends on what role fhq has (assuming this is all true). There could be a scum role that visits scum for some reason (they do exist obviously, but I don't really see one that would fit in here). If he turns up scum RB, then I would say wolf is completely cleared.

Also, assuming you as town, the theory identifies the scum as myself, fhq, and Rash. How likley do you think it is that Rash and I are scum together?

As likely as any other combination.

Some additional comments:

- I am having trouble seeing wolf and DR as scum together. This would leave a town of Tracker / 1-shot vig / Miller / Nosy neighbor.

- If wolf is town and DR is scum, the sure-fire way to victory would have been any information that conflicted with Wolf. If the choice is between those 2, I would say wolf gets lynched 9 out of 10 times. Ythill already outlined how he could have done this (said he watched Elias and didn't see wolf visit).
- If wolf is scum and DR is town, then fhq is still scum and has some sort of scum assisting role where he visits scum.

- If only one of DR/wolf is scum, that still leaves 2/4 vanillas as scum - meaning Rash/Ythill are partners (from my perspective obv) OR one of them are partnered with fhq.

- If DR is scum, he is either bussing, or his partners are Ythill and Rash unless I see both DR and wolf as scum.

- fhq is obviously voting DR. Ythill shows no signs of voting fhq. Since I see 2+ vanilla claims as scum, that means one has to be bussing if DR is scum.

Some of that may have been redundant, but I am heavily leaning towards voting fhq. He has consistently been more suspicious to me throughout the game (more than Oman was) and the claimed results of the watching generates the simplest explanation for a lot of questions I had.

FOS fhq

with probable intent to vote.

Elias - since you said you were leaning towards DR, I would ask you to read fhq in isolation and see how you feel afterwards.

[fhqwhgads]

Unfortunately I need to get to bed early tonight. Got a very early morning tomorrow. I don't really have more to say in my defence, unless someone has something specific to ask, but I'll probably only be able to answer 12 hours from now.

@bionic: One last thing, what do you make of DR's stubbornness in not revealing his information until the last minute? I think he's had more than enough time to out me since he made numerous posts before he did it.

[bionicchop2]

@bionic: One last thing, what do you make of DR's stubbornness in not revealing his information until the last minute? I think he's had more than enough time to out me since he made numerous posts before he did it.

I think it is equally anti-town along with pushing for a lynch yesterday instead of giving any power roles a chance to find new information through the night phase.

I also see not protecting Tony as anti-town, but crywolf-town is becoming more and more likely.

[fhqwhgads]

Wel, it's one day until deadline, and it seem we have some split opinions about voting either DR or me. Well, for one thing, I think we all know no-lynch isn't an option today, so I urge you all to come to some decision. At least if I do get lynched, we lose on our terms, rather than sitting and waiting to get picked off.

@Bionic: While I might see your argument that pushing for a lynch might seem anti-town to you, I maintain my argument that our first no-lynch was MORE anti-town, and led to the second one. I also have to respectfully disagree with your statement that it is AS anti-town as withholding the information DR did.

But I think it's pretty clear by now that our opinions are different on this subject.

Again, I urge all of you to vote before deadline. Win or lose, let's do it by action, and not inaction.

[bionicchop2]

Again, I urge all of you to vote before deadline. Win or lose, let's do it by action, and not inaction.

Agreed.

vote fhqwhgads

I really am convinced the only reason scum would kill Tony last night (outside of crywolf being scum) is that they knew he would not be protected. Since I don't see any way BOTH crywolf and DR are scum, I believe crywolf was blocked. I also think Oman was less scummy that fhq throughout the game.

[fhqwhgads]

[quote"bionicchop2]
I really am convinced the only reason scum would kill Tony last night (outside of crywolf being scum) is that they knew he would not be protected. Since I don't see any way BOTH crywolf and DR are scum, I believe crywolf was blocked. I also think Oman was less scummy that fhq throughout the game.
[/quote]

Does this mean you believe crywolf just made bad decisions in her protection choices?

[fhqwhgads]

Damn quote tags!

[Ythill]

Well, it's one day until deadline...

Isn't the deadline @ midnight? That means we have two days.

Bionic, please unvote, at least until tomorrow evening so I have a chance to reread fhq and post an argument.

[fhqwhgads]

Sorry, was posting it according my own timezone.

[bionicchop2]

Bionic, please unvote, at least until tomorrow evening so I have a chance to reread fhq and post an argument.

I am pretty sure you and Rash are his partners, so I don't think I am going to accomodate you on this one. If DR was scum, you and Rash would also have to be his partner. As I said, I can't see wolf as DR's partner if he is scum and if DR isn't scum, then wolf is almost certainly cleared by fhq visiting her.

[bionicchop2]

Does this mean you believe crywolf just made bad decisions in her protection choices?

Yes, right now that is how I feel.