Mini 2287: AB:LoAF (Postgame)

[Kokichi Oma]

If Aisa is scum then you leave. If not, then you have confirmed scum. Regardless you leave tonight or tomorrow night.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

No, because in the event that there is more than one Arson left, then we as town are in a bad spot. We assisted you before, so we would appreciate you working with us too. Regardless you should target Aisa. We need to know for sure if Aisa is scum or not. Regardless we all win if you target Aisa

there is 100% a scum between KT, furitive, you

how is us targeting aisa the better player here for either us or town if today elim is not scum?

pedit: if town fails to kill arson today and tomorrow, town is loosing majority to arsonists. the info you provided is very helpful for it but we can make sure you 100% get the scum right at next day max. I really think the plan of action I posted is the best for everyone

[Kokichi Oma]

Aisa is easy mislim if she's town. In the event that she's town and one of Enchant or Gimli is the scum then we are in a very bad spot.

[Marashu]

If the team is something like Kokichi/Enchant, as an example (completely outside of the POE)

D4 we out {KT/Furtive}, bringing us to 4:2:2. N4 You target Aisa and are still in the game, and we are at 2 doused. D5 we eliminate the other of {KT/Furtive}. We are at 3:2:2. Arsonists ignite. Go into D5 with 1:2:2 with pirates acting as kingmakers.

vs

D4 we out {KT/Furtive}, bringing us to 4:2:2. N4 you target Kokichi. We are at 2 doused, but you exit the game, leaving us at 4:2 with 2 doused. We also know that the other of {KT/Furtive} is town, and that there is scum in {Kokichi, me}. We would have 1 clear ({furtive/KT}), but would need to eliminate correctly or go to 3:2; ignite and game over. Otherwise, we would go to 4:1 with 2 doused and 2 clear. That night would bring us to 3 doused because igniting would just bring the game to 2:1.

vs

D4 we out {KT/Furtive}, bringing us to 4:2:2. N4 you target the other of {KT/Furtive}, and we are at 2 doused. Since you do not leave, we would have 2 clear and would know that Kokichi is lying. We remove Kokichi, bringing us to 4:1:2. That night we are at 3 doused, and let's say you target Aisa. We now have 3 clears because you are still in the game.

Yeah. I see what you mean. As for the alternative, with town!Kokichi

D4 we elim scum. You target the survivor. We are at 5:1:2 with 2 doused but 2 clear.
OR
D4 we elim scum. You target Kokichi (as an example). We are at 5:1:2 with 3 clear or 5:1 and know the final scum.
OR
D4 we elim town. You target kokichi. We are at 4:2:2 but because you're still here we know the other is scum, and we have 2 clear.

If we flip scum you should target someone else; otherwise targeting the survivor really does look like the best play.

PEdit - I see other scenarios so I will read them now

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Aisa is easy mislim if she's town. In the event that she's town and one of Enchant or Gimli is the scum then we are in a very bad spot.

and if today an arson dies, they are definitely next in poe to be checked and pirates will target them.

but if we kill KT this day phase and their not the scum, the arson will be definitely between you or furitive. Why would we be targeting aisa then?

[Kokichi Oma]

Arson will just win easily if Aisa is town. I'm trying to cover all bases in the event of that scenario that might be unlikely, but can happen. I'm not quite sure why you're fighting this so hard unless there is something you're not telling us.

[Marashu]

having caught up, I agree with the plan in 2024

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

I'm not fighting anything what I posted is best plan of action for both town and pirates.

maybe not for you in specific since you know your own alignment but you were always part of my own PoE list for being a scum.

so why should I trust you and completely focus out of this trio that will sure have a scum in it and with what I posted everyone will know for 100% about an arsonist with it?

[Marashu]

If scum!KT, scum have a guaranteed kill tonight if we leave him alive. If scum!furtive, we just need to be careful with words going into D5.

VOTE: Kitty

[Marashu]

(I still don't know if your vanillize counts as a roleblock)

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

(I still don't know if your vanillize counts as a roleblock)

it shouldn't huh

but I'll ask for you

[Kokichi Oma]

Aisa is easy mislim if she's town. In the event that she's town and one of Enchant or Gimli is the scum then we are in a very bad spot.

and if today an arson dies, they are definitely next in poe to be checked and pirates will target them.

but if we kill KT this day phase and their not the scum, the arson will be definitely between you or furitive. Why would we be targeting aisa then?

Because this covers all scenarios and gives us an extra day in the event Aisa is town. Look at it like this.

Say I am scum with Gimli Enchant or Aisa.

Mislim today.

vote me out tomorrow.

Pirates are in the clear because they leave right away. But town has to figure out last scum in those 3. Say Enchant is the scum in this scenario, town loses 100% since I think everyone townreads him

In my scenario we clear Aisa or scumclaim her. If shes town thats great and we narrow down scum to one of Gimli and Enchant (unlikely but possible) if shes scum, you leave already and win. and we have the 2 scum remaining. This path is way easier for us as town. and I guess slightly less easy for pirates but still you win regardless.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Let me rephrase it for easier understanding:

1 - we will flip KT or Furitive

Scenario A: They flip as town

2 - remaining of KT/Furitive should try to kill kokichi as they know kokichi lied if they are also town
3 - Pirates target the remaining of furitive/KT
4 - If pirates leave game, the remaining of furitive/KT is arson. If pirates stay in game Kokichi is arson

Scenario B: They flip as scum

2 - Pirates target Aisa
3 - if pirates leave game Aisa is Arson, if pirates don't leave game Aisa is town. In this scenario kokichi and the remaining of Furitive/KT is also town

You're saying we should always target aisa.

lets say we flip kt today and they flip town, we target aisa and they are town too so we wont leave. lets say you are scum and you fake claimed this guilty to set up two mislims. in this case town will mislim tomorrow furitive as well and effectively will loose majority. you will arson kill on that night and with us leaving town will loose the game.

with my plan there is a gaurntee that an arson will die today or tomorrow

whatever town decides I'll go with it

[Kokichi Oma]

Let me rephrase it for easier understanding:

1 - we will flip KT or Furitive

Scenario A: They flip as town

2 - remaining of KT/Furitive should try to kill kokichi as they know kokichi lied if they are also town
3 - Pirates target the remaining of furitive/KT
4 - If pirates leave game, the remaining of furitive/KT is arson. If pirates stay in game Kokichi is arson

Scenario B: They flip as scum

2 - Pirates target Aisa
3 - if pirates leave game Aisa is Arson, if pirates don't leave game Aisa is town. In this scenario kokichi and the remaining of Furitive/KT is also town

You're saying we should always target aisa.

lets say we flip kt today and they flip town, we target aisa and they are town too so we wont leave. lets say you are scum and you fake claimed this guilty to set up two mislims. in this case town will mislim tomorrow furitive as well and effectively will loose majority. you will arson kill on that night and with us leaving town will loose the game.

with my plan there is a gaurntee that an arson will die today or tomorrow

whatever town decides I'll go with it

Your plan also doesn't equate for the worst case scenario for town, but the best case scenario for pirates.

[Kokichi Oma]

I'm gonna laugh if it's just kitty and we did all this for nothing

[Kokichi Oma]

I think between the plans. The big difference is if you scumread me more than Aisa. If you scumread her more then plundering Aisa is the better way.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

I'm not entirely sure what you mean with worst case scenario for town

our action wont be solving the entire game regardless of which plan we go for. difference is in mine, based on today flip, we will try to make sure next elim is 100% correct so town gets an extra day and in other we will have to completely trust you with that guilty and see where that will get us.

but yeah I also really think there is only 1 arson left and it should be in the trio for sure.

[Marashu]

Aisa is easy mislim if she's town. In the event that she's town and one of Enchant or Gimli is the scum then we are in a very bad spot.

and if today an arson dies, they are definitely next in poe to be checked and pirates will target them.

but if we kill KT this day phase and their not the scum, the arson will be definitely between you or furitive. Why would we be targeting aisa then?

Because this covers all scenarios and gives us an extra day in the event Aisa is town. Look at it like this.

Say I am scum with Gimli Enchant or Aisa.

Mislim today.

vote me out tomorrow.

Pirates are in the clear because they leave right away. But town has to figure out last scum in those 3. Say Enchant is the scum in this scenario, town loses 100% since I think everyone townreads him

In my scenario we clear Aisa or scumclaim her. If shes town thats great and we narrow down scum to one of Gimli and Enchant (unlikely but possible) if shes scum, you leave already and win. and we have the 2 scum remaining. This path is way easier for us as town. and I guess slightly less easy for pirates but still you win regardless.

Hold on.

So if you were scum, we mislim today. They target Aisa. Arsonists douse. We'd know Aisa's alignment but not which of you or {KT/Furtive} is scum. If Aisa is town, then Aisa and I are clear, but we have You and {KT/Furtive} as one scum, and Gimli/Enchant as the other. We would still need to sort your pair, and then we're at 3 doused. If we guessed wrong, then even if we resolve the other slot, arsonists ignite and we're at 1:1.

Even if you're town, your plan involves sorting your slot and KT/Furtive's slot, which if we get it wrong, is kaboom.

I'm just worried that your plan would have us sorting one day too late if we get it wrong.

PEdit - yeah, if it's just 1 arso left, then this is moot, but I'd rather be prepared if it is 2 arsonists.

[Kokichi Oma]

As you saw last game, people should always trust my instincts.



I still think Aisa is the best plunder tonight.

[Gimli]

I stopped following this argument fwiw

targeting aisa or furtive barely makes a difference for us. for pirates, picking furtive ends the game for them. they don't need to keep townsiding when they can just pick furtive and disappear with a victory.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

it makes all the difference for you.

"lets say we flip kt today and they flip town, we target aisa and they are town too so we wont leave. lets say you are scum and you fake claimed this guilty to set up two mislims. in this case town will mislim tomorrow furitive as well and effectively will loose majority. you will arson kill on that night and with us leaving town will loose the game."

you in that paragraph is kokichi.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

picking furitive ends the game for us if kokichi is telling the truth.

why are you so sure he is telling the truth?

[Kokichi Oma]

Then let's vote Furt? I don't really care which. If you're that worried I'm scum. I thought I was pretty townread, what do i have to gain from doing this now?

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Let me rephrase it for easier understanding:

1 - we will flip KT or Furitive

Scenario A: They flip as town

2 - remaining of KT/Furitive should try to kill kokichi as they know kokichi lied if they are also town
3 - Pirates target the remaining of furitive/KT
4 - If pirates leave game, the remaining of furitive/KT is arson. If pirates stay in game Kokichi is arson

Scenario B: They flip as scum

2 - Pirates target Aisa
3 - if pirates leave game Aisa is Arson, if pirates don't leave game Aisa is town. In this scenario kokichi and the remaining of Furitive/KT is also town

Aisa is only relevant if there is a third arson. You need the second arson dead today or at start of next day phase. so we'll go after checking them if second arson is dead. otherwise with this plan of action, we'll make sure town 100% gets the second arson correctly at start of next day phase.

[Kyoko Kirigiri]

Then let's vote Furt? I don't really care which. If you're that worried I'm scum. I thought I was pretty townread, what do i have to gain from doing this now?

I think KT is a better vote than furt. I also think you're the towniest of this group of 3. that's why I said we'll target the other one you claimed guilty on that we don't elim today tonight.

but by chance you actually fake claimed to set up two easy mislims and guide pirates toward aisa to just get enough time to douse enough and kill all and with us leaving claim win with 2 night phases, town's best play is with us targeting in the pool of three we're sure there is an arson in too

anyways I plan to go with the plan of action I posted last page unless if town heavily disagrees with it. then we can negotiate about the best plan of action together