Open 875 - The Kindgom of Zeal: The Queens Chosen - GAME OVER
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Detective Penguin Goon
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Enchant Survivor
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No i unvoted randomly.Wizard-Mercenary
You need replacement/players ASAP? PM me! I almost always accept.-
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Let someone else have a turn with the hammer yeesh"I would prefer not to." --Herman Melville,Bartleby the Scrivener-
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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You have played with it enough and it is time to give someone else a turn"I would prefer not to." --Herman Melville,Bartleby the Scrivener-
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Enchant Survivor
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It's Not_Mafia turn, but he is not here so i take his place.Wizard-Mercenary
You need replacement/players ASAP? PM me! I almost always accept.-
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Gimli he/himJack of All Tradeshe/him
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enchant's just looking for one divine hammeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeer-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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I would just like everyone to read this post, bearing in mind Ranger has claimed to have an N1 action. She apparently has no interest in using her action whatsoever, which I find to be completely unbelievable if such an action actually exists.In post 785, Ranger wrote:
I count as someone.In post 769, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Literally no one is trying to kill you today anymore.
I don't want to deal with you pushing me every day phase.
It's my preference to die today because even if you're pushing elsewhere--your read on me remains. You're scumreading me. You want me dead. You can choose to not pursue me today. You still want to pursue me eventually. D2. D3. Until I die.
Easier to remove the distraction D1 than have it in the game until I die later.-
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furtiveglance He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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I like the idea of redFF elim, Ranger protects me.-
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Gimli he/himJack of All Tradeshe/him
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yeah I don't know if ranger would doc you
but maybe someone else will-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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I like that idea too. Too bad Ranger doesn't actually have an ability, and even if she did with you as one of her stronger scumreads I don't trust her to use a doc on you.In post 832, furtiveglance wrote: I like the idea of redFF elim, Ranger protects me.
Fortunately there's potential for other, realer Doctors to exist-
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Ranger She/Her{Top Tier}She/Her
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Disagreed. The more claims for a night, the less likely all are to be town. Providing the information on which night I act informs the odds on other slots.In post 815, Umlaut wrote: Nights of action are chosen independently for each PR so it doesn't give us even partial information about anyone else.
Willing to go elsewhere, yes.In post 790, Radical Rat wrote:Clearly she's willing to go elsewhere and not just blindly tunnel you into oblivion
Will drop the read, no. And every day she holds it is more dangerous than the last. What happens if LLD and I both live to lylo? If LLD was willing to go elsewhere every day prior?
For those fond of VCA this should be gold for you.In post 819, LavosCore wrote:
You're being disingenuous.In post 831, Radical Rat wrote: She apparently has no interest in using her action whatsoever
I've already stated I'd have preferred to live if not for LLD's push on me.
{Lady Lambdadelta}
{Gimli, Cephrir, Save the Dragons, Detective Penguin}
{Enchant}
{Ethel, redFF}
{furtiveglance}
{Umlaut}
{Radical Rat}
{KawaiiKame}AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgangGame History"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."- RadiantCowbells |"Ranger's been town in most of them."- Plotinus
"Ranger fake claiming? I'm shocked"- usesPython-
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redFF Mafia Scum
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redFF Mafia Scum
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This isnt how odds work lolIn post 835, Ranger wrote:
Disagreed. The more claims for a night, the less likely all are to be town. Providing the information on which night I act informs the odds on other slots.In post 815, Umlaut wrote: Nights of action are chosen independently for each PR so it doesn't give us even partial information about anyone else.
From the wiki -
The Mod then randomises a number from 1-5 for each town player. This is the one night that the players' role works on.-
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redFF Mafia Scum
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Say you flip a coin 4 times and it flips tails 4 times, what are the chances the next flip is heads?
Its 50%-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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I'm not being disingenuous. If your ability were real, you would want to eliminated D2, not D1. You saying D1 is better is just for you to justify not really playing the game.-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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That's true of any individual, but not so of groups. While we can't know WHO is lying, because for every individual the odds are equal, for every person who claims to have an ability on a given night, the likelihood that at least one is lying goes up.In post 838, redFF wrote: Say you flip a coin 4 times and it flips tails 4 times, what are the chances the next flip is heads?
Its 50%
Right now we have two N1 claims. The odds of either, individually, being true are 20%. But the odds of both being true simultaneously are only 4%, because you would need a second event with 20% probability following from the first. A third claim would reduce this to a less than 1% chance that all three are telling the truth.
In your coin flip example, the odds of the next flip being heads are 50%, but the odds that you initially flipped four heads in a row are about 6.25%.
Having said that, it's still not really helpful because regardless of whether you're Town or Scum, the correct claim is that you act on the next night. As Scum, it's the easiest argument to keep you alive, and as Town, you want to make scum's nightkill decision harder AND be kept alive.
This setup does not incentivize truth-
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Gimli he/himJack of All Tradeshe/him
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the odds of furtive or ranger's claim being true equals to the odds of them being town, which is about 75% for each. the odds of them both acting on n1 equals to the odds of them both being town, which is ugh 56%? of course that and not 4% lol if it was 4% we'd have nothing left to discuss-
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Enchant Survivor
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So claims are useless. Let's kill randomly.Wizard-Mercenary
You need replacement/players ASAP? PM me! I almost always accept.-
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furtiveglance He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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Why did Enchant unvote redFF, bit sus-
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Gimli he/himJack of All Tradeshe/him
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he wants to hammerIn post 843, furtiveglance wrote: Why did Enchant unvote redFF, bit sus-
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Detective Penguin Goon
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pretty sure we established it's so enchant can hold the hammerIn post 843, furtiveglance wrote: Why did Enchant unvote redFF, bit sus
pretty sure you should know that enchant's thing-
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furtiveglance He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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Yeah ok
Does someone want to set that up then-
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Gimli he/himJack of All Tradeshe/him
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the odds of them being whatever night whatever thing should NOT count! because otherwise look at what happens: someone's town equity reduces from 75% to only 20% just because they hardclaimed! of course, that can't be accurate.In post 841, Gimli wrote: the odds of furtive or ranger's claim being true equals to the odds of them being town, which is about 75% for each. the odds of them both acting on n1 equals to the odds of them both being town, which is ugh 56%? of course that and not 4% lol if it was 4% we'd have nothing left to discuss-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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No it doesn't. Town isn't guaranteed to tell the truth. And in this setup Town is actively incentivized to NOT tell the truth.In post 841, Gimli wrote: the odds of furtive or ranger's claim being true equals to the odds of them being town, which is about 75% for each. the odds of them both acting on n1 equals to the odds of them both being town, which is ugh 56%? of course that and not 4% lol if it was 4% we'd have nothing left to discuss
Though my 4% number is actually wrong because I forgot to take into account that you have to be Town to get a night number in the first place, so. It's actually not a straight 20% chance an individual acts on a given night, it's less than that but I'm too lazy to do the actual math.-
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Gimli he/himJack of All Tradeshe/him
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so you're saying furtive and/or ranger can be town but not act n1 and be lying about it?
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