Open 876 - Fire and Ice - Postgame

[Alianna]

1.05

Votecount 1.05

usesPython (2): Oclaxian Empire, The Bulge
IceDragon70 (2): biancospino, usesPython
biancospino (2): Black, Doctor Drew
Black (2): Kokichi Oma, HighPrincessErinys
Malakittens (1): IceDragon70
furtiveglance (1): Aureal
The Bulge (1): furtiveglance

Not Voting (2): osuka, Malakittens

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-04-20 18:48:28).

[Black]

What the hell Alianna. You were so ready for that page top it's unreal

[Doctor Drew]

What the hell Alianna. You were so ready for that page top it's unreal

Ooh, someone on this player list will be very upset about that.

[Doctor Drew]

Also, scum is more likely to acquiesce compared to town.

[HighPrincessErinys]

Also, scum is more likely to acquiesce compared to town.

You mean like how this one acquiesced in the

opposite direction

whilst Black was asking it to vote with her and you on bianco?

[Oclaxian Empire]

Gonna eat dinner and I’ll read the thread and likely have some more comprehensive thoughts before V/LA tmrw

[Doctor Drew]

Also, scum is more likely to acquiesce compared to town.

You mean like how this one acquiesced in the

opposite direction

whilst Black was asking it to vote with her and you on bianco?

Did you just admit you are scum?

[HighPrincessErinys]

Also, scum is more likely to acquiesce compared to town.

You mean like how this one acquiesced in the

opposite direction

whilst Black was asking it to vote with her and you on bianco?

Did you just admit you are scum?

That's a REALLY interesting way to read that post.

[Doctor Drew]

Also, scum is more likely to acquiesce compared to town.

You mean like how this one acquiesced in the

opposite direction

whilst Black was asking it to vote with her and you on bianco?

Did you just admit you are scum?

That's a REALLY interesting way to read that post.

I mean, you worded that in a very interesting way.

[Malakittens]

Gonna eat dinner and I’ll read the thread and likely have some more comprehensive thoughts before V/LA tmrw

Hey HPE here’s a text book scum tell!!

[HighPrincessErinys]

My question to you Drew is: Why would an acquiescing scum!HPE decide to vote Black instead of taking the easily excusable opportunity vote on bianco, or the easily excusable scumread vote on IceDragon? Not go "oh yeah, application of pressure, sure! VOTE: Some Poor Sod"? You indirectly and Black directly encouraged it to join the bianco wagon, after all.

[HighPrincessErinys]

You can try and say "HPE you're just trying to trick me by talking about the opportunity you didn't take!!" but it's like, such a braindead easy spot to throw a vote in at, or even prior when IceDragon's wagon was getting going and it refused to join.

[Doctor Drew]

My question to you Drew is: Why would an acquiescing scum!HPE decide to vote Black instead of taking the easily excusable opportunity vote on bianco, or the easily excusable scumread vote on IceDragon? Not go "oh yeah, application of pressure, sure! VOTE: Some Poor Sod"? You indirectly and Black directly encouraged it to join the bianco wagon, after all.

You can try and say "HPE you're just trying to trick me by talking about the opportunity you didn't take!!" but it's like, such a braindead easy spot to throw a vote in at, or even prior when IceDragon's wagon was getting going and it refused to join.

I enjoy all this energy you are putting into this defense. Kinda reminds me of Eminem at the end of 8 Mile....say all the the things that could make you look bad before someone else could. Thought you might even add 'Fuck the Free World' at the end there.

There are a million things you 'could have' done. But why did you choose the one you did? And also, do you normally take forever to lay a vote down as Black hinted at?

But most importantly, while I think Bianco has a decent shot at being scum here, I don't think they would enjoy being called a poor sod lol.

[Oclaxian Empire]

I think there's some level of gimmick involved.

And that's why I'm a little wary of Dragon. The vote thing actually feels like awkward RVS stuff which I guess he's known for, but combined with the Ice Mafia opening post, it feels worse. Because if my account was named icedragon and I rolled ice here, I'd find it absolutely hilarious to just come out and say so.

i think the entire gimmick boils down to "haha look at funni ice dragon in the funni fire and ice game! haha pls laugh!" and nothing else.

I don't really think python "main hunting" is AI though

i dont like it regardless. if it were to be a hidden alt, that's super fucking disgusting and anyone trying to figure out the main of a hidden alt should feel bad abt trying to unmask someone. in this case, where its a public alt, i still think trying to link playstyle or main hunt is rlly bad. it doesn't read as anything other than "i need a reason to formulate a read on this person - i know,

what's their main

. that's horrible. i hate it. python has said that they do meta read, which sure. w/e. i can agree to that. but i don't think trying to use meta from the main acc in this game is viable.

Oh no you got Nameless to mech post

-A

It's actually optimal to lim every day. Since scum targetting the same person stops the nightkill that leaves a

G

/(

T

+

G

) chance of shooting the other groupscum, and a 1/(

T

² + 2

T

) chance of both targetting the same townie if a townie is getting shot

The chance of limming scum is

S

/(P - 1)

Plugging in the numbers that means that for now a lim gives an expected result of 8/12 chance of limming town whereas the chance of scum nightkilling town (Ignoring any doctor plays) is 9/11 - 1/99 = 80/99

Spoiler: What the letters mean

P - number of players alive

T

- number of town alive

S

- number of scum alive

G

- number of enemy groupscum alive

-Nameless

thats cool and all but can u explain it in laymans terms.

This one thinks it trusts Python, and of course it's got a scumread on Ice for his vote on Mala, but otherwise it's... rather lacking in reads honestly. Need to give this game a look over sometime and try to come up with SOMETHING.

explain python read.

But...but...I like her

I like Aureal, she is good people, some say the best.

But who doesn't love a good wagon?

Or, and here me out, how about a Bianco wagon?

Either/or to drown out the mech speak.

Why not? My vote is still on mala from RVS (where is the sweet kitty anyway?)

VOTE: Bianco

Yay Black!

VOTE: Bianco

gross. i dont have a particular read on bianco, but i think in general bianco is more likely town for early game posting alone bc it doesnt strike me as smth scum would want to do, (be the first serious vote to end rvs), esp with crosskills possible. still cant read drew, and i find it gross bc of that. black... idk. i think blacks posting are mostly nai, but i did catch a post i want to respond to in detail.

[HighPrincessErinys]

You can try and say "HPE you're just trying to trick me by talking about the opportunity you didn't take!!" but it's like, such a braindead easy spot to throw a vote in at, or even prior when IceDragon's wagon was getting going and it refused to join.

There are a million things you 'could have' done. But why did you choose the one you did? And also, do you normally take forever to lay a vote down as Black hinted at?

But most importantly, while I think Bianco has a decent shot at being scum here, I don't think they would enjoy being called a poor sod lol.

This one doesn't see anything wrong with Bianco's posts, and it believes the wagon, for pressure or no, was 1) unnecessary and 2) kinda sus. Granted it probably should've voted you since you were the initiator of the wagon itself, but Black was the one asking me to vote, after all. Part of it was just giving in to Black wanting this one to use it's vote, but still.

And that poor sod could be bianco OR Ice!!! Maybe even a secret funny third option!!!

[HighPrincessErinys]

This one thinks it trusts Python, and of course it's got a scumread on Ice for his vote on Mala, but otherwise it's... rather lacking in reads honestly. Need to give this game a look over sometime and try to come up with SOMETHING.

explain python read.

Just getting town vibes from them but its not exactly concrete. 'Trust' might've been minor hyperbole but it's still a bit of a townlean atm.

[Oclaxian Empire]

what abt their play is making u townread them.

[HighPrincessErinys]

what abt their play is making u townread them.

The meta reads related to Mala/Dragon (even if this one doesn't. care. for meta.), the mechposting, 135/137... They're just making some plays and points this one thinks are towny and genuine.

[Doctor Drew]

You can try and say "HPE you're just trying to trick me by talking about the opportunity you didn't take!!" but it's like, such a braindead easy spot to throw a vote in at, or even prior when IceDragon's wagon was getting going and it refused to join.

There are a million things you 'could have' done. But why did you choose the one you did? And also, do you normally take forever to lay a vote down as Black hinted at?

But most importantly, while I think Bianco has a decent shot at being scum here, I don't think they would enjoy being called a poor sod lol.

This one doesn't see anything wrong with Bianco's posts, and it believes the wagon, for pressure or no, was 1) unnecessary and 2) kinda sus. Granted it probably should've voted you since you were the initiator of the wagon itself, but Black was the one asking me to vote, after all. Part of it was just giving in to Black wanting this one to use it's vote, but still.

And that poor sod could be bianco OR Ice!!! Maybe even a secret funny third option!!!

Pressure is always necessary, especially this early in a game, not sure why you don't see that.

Do you normally take forever to vote as Black hinted at?

And honestly thought my 8 Mile joke would get a bit more of a reaction here.....this makes me sad.

And Oclax, make it easy to read me and join this wagon!

[HighPrincessErinys]

You can try and say "HPE you're just trying to trick me by talking about the opportunity you didn't take!!" but it's like, such a braindead easy spot to throw a vote in at, or even prior when IceDragon's wagon was getting going and it refused to join.

There are a million things you 'could have' done. But why did you choose the one you did? And also, do you normally take forever to lay a vote down as Black hinted at?

But most importantly, while I think Bianco has a decent shot at being scum here, I don't think they would enjoy being called a poor sod lol.

This one doesn't see anything wrong with Bianco's posts, and it believes the wagon, for pressure or no, was 1) unnecessary and 2) kinda sus. Granted it probably should've voted you since you were the initiator of the wagon itself, but Black was the one asking me to vote, after all. Part of it was just giving in to Black wanting this one to use it's vote, but still.

And that poor sod could be bianco OR Ice!!! Maybe even a secret funny third option!!!

Pressure is always necessary, especially this early in a game, not sure why you don't see that.

Do you normally take forever to vote as Black hinted at?

And honestly thought my 8 Mile joke would get a bit more of a reaction here.....this makes me sad.

This one isn't always conscious of its habits so it can't say for sure if thats a Thing. Also the only things this one knows about Eminem are memes like mom's spaghetti and bornana.

[Oclaxian Empire]

But in multiball like this, and if you are scum there is always a chance that the lim-bait is scum. Personally I wouldn't overthink things on D1 and just try to find the easiest path and just hope for the best.

I think I agree with this. Everyone is trying to lim scum D1, even scum

ive been sitting on this post for a while trying to think about it and thought about it while showering, but i still think it comes from town more often than not. i'm basing this off town of salem coven which while i know is not the most accurate thing to base forum mafia plays off of, i do think its generally a good thing to look at since some mechanics do come into play here.

mainly, i think today is the only day scum killing scum is bad, and i think tomorrow its still maybe bad to do so? like sure, both factions can be crosskilled by the other, which is bad for them, and if they target the same person, neither of them kill someone, which is also bad. but the other faction has extra killpower which both sides desperately need for right now bc the sooner the game gets to one side achieving parity, the better for that faction. leaving alive the other people in the game who can kill ppl for you and get you to your wincon sooner is beneficial.

assuming a townie is killed today, and both kills are successful, it's a 6v2v2 which is a so much better position for both factions than say a 7v2v1 bc now if the one of the two goons is killed today its rlly bad for both mafia factions. (if it goes into a 7v2 on n2 with one faction being elim'd entirely, that's better for that one faction ofc, but its unlikely that one side finds and kills both of the other goons at this point.)

theres another point i think is inherent to multiball that makes scum trying to actively kill the other scum bad today too: if you kill both of the other scum today, u have to act like ur solving the game, which, depends on the player on whether this is good or not. multiball is inherently difficult if u roll town, and getting rid of ur easy way to look townie, (trying to scumhunt the other team), its gonna be rougher for u to win, especially if its smth like 9v2 where both the goons of the same faction are killed at the start, or even a 9v1v1.

tl;dr - scum are not going to want to kill scum today, but will act like they're actively trying to find scum. any other day? fuck if i know. its probably advantageous to scumhunt for all sides starting tmrw.

[Aureal]

So... You disagree with Black's point about scum wanting to hunt the other scum today? But think that thinking that way is more likely townie than not?

[usesPython]

Oh no you got Nameless to mech post

-A

It's actually optimal to lim every day. Since scum targetting the same person stops the nightkill that leaves a

G

/(

T

+

G

) chance of shooting the other groupscum, and a 1/(

T

² + 2

T

) chance of both targetting the same townie if a townie is getting shot

The chance of limming scum is

S

/(P - 1)

Plugging in the numbers that means that for now a lim gives an expected result of 8/12 chance of limming town whereas the chance of scum nightkilling town (Ignoring any doctor plays) is 9/11 - 1/99 = 80/99

Spoiler: What the letters mean

P - number of players alive

T

- number of town alive

S

- number of scum alive

G

- number of enemy groupscum alive

-Nameless

Ugh, don't do mech while tired; the math for the nightkills is off by like 0.5% because I didn't properly adjust the "same target = no nk" and didn't account for the doctor. Just listing out every possible action assuming a No Lim gives the following nightkill chances:

Town Doctor

: 240/2484 (9.66%)

Vanilla Townie

: 1760/2484 (70.85%)

Fire Mafia Goon

: 242/2484 (9.74%)

Ice Mafia Goon

: 242/2484 (9.74%)

Which when combined gives the chances of:

Town

: 2000/2484 (80.52%)

Mafia

: 484/2484 (19.48%)

Compared to the elim chances (

Town Doctor

can't get elimed because they just claim):

Vanilla Townie

: 8/12

Fire Mafia Goon

: 2/12

Ice Mafia Goon

: 2/12

Which when combined gives the chances of

Town

: 8/12 (66.67%)

Mafia

: 4/12 (33.33%)

Whatever. Now it's your responsibility to translate the mech for us >:(

thats cool and all but can u explain it in laymans terms.

It's more optimal to get scum killed through elims instead of nightkills and the reason this math needed to be done at all is because the mechanic where scum targeting the same person stops the nightkill will only ever get triggered on a town nightkill (since if it triggers on a scum nightkill it means that scum targeted themselves)

-Nameless

[usesPython]

I think I agree with this. Everyone is trying to lim scum D1, even scum

mainly, i think today is the only day scum killing scum is bad, and i think tomorrow its still maybe bad to do so? like sure, both factions can be crosskilled by the other, which is bad for them, and if they target the same person, neither of them kill someone, which is also bad. but the other faction has extra killpower which both sides desperately need for right now bc the sooner the game gets to one side achieving parity, the better for that faction. leaving alive the other people in the game who can kill ppl for you and get you to your wincon sooner is beneficial.

assuming a townie is killed today, and both kills are successful, it's a 6v2v2 which is a so much better position for both factions than say a 7v2v1 bc now if the one of the two goons is killed today its rlly bad for both mafia factions. (if it goes into a 7v2 on n2 with one faction being elim'd entirely, that's better for that one faction ofc, but its unlikely that one side finds and kills both of the other goons at this point.)

theres another point i think is inherent to multiball that makes scum trying to actively kill the other scum bad today too: if you kill both of the other scum today, u have to act like ur solving the game, which, depends on the player on whether this is good or not. multiball is inherently difficult if u roll town, and getting rid of ur easy way to look townie, (trying to scumhunt the other team), its gonna be rougher for u to win, especially if its smth like 9v2 where both the goons of the same faction are killed at the start, or even a 9v1v1.

tl;dr - scum are not going to want to kill scum today, but will act like they're actively trying to find scum. any other day? fuck if i know. its probably advantageous to scumhunt for all sides starting tmrw.

There's two critical assumptions that you're making that I don't think apply:

1. Groupscum have full control over the lim today
   
2. Groupscum have a >rand chance of identifying other groupscum today

Let's assume an

Ice Mafia Goon

gets limmed today, the nightkill chances would be (Assuming both groupscum shoot at random and doctor heals at random):

Ice Mafia Goon

+

Fire Mafia Goon

: 18/1210 (1.49%)

Fire Mafia Goon

+

Town

: 164/1210 (13.55%)

Ice Mafia Goon

+

Town

: 82/1210 (6.78%)

Town

+

Town

: 664/1210 (54.88%)

Fire Mafia Goon

: 18/1210 (1.49%)

Ice Mafia Goon

: 10/1210 (0.83%)

Town

: 155/1210 (12.81%)
No Kill: 99/1210 (8.18%)

If we assume any outcome that doesn't result in a dead

Fire Mafia Goon

is +EV for

Fire Mafia

that leaves the chances of a +EV nightkill after limming enemy groupscum to be:

Ice Mafia Goon

+

Town

: 82/1210 (6.78%)

Town

+

Town

: 664/1210 (54.88%)

Ice Mafia Goon

: 10/1210 (0.83%)

Town

: 155/1210 (12.81%)
No Kill: 99/1210 (8.18%)

Total: 1010/1210 (83.47%)

And the -EV outcomes:

Ice Mafia Goon

+

Fire Mafia Goon

: 18/1210 (1.49%)

Fire Mafia Goon

+

Town

: 164/1210 (13.55%)

Fire Mafia Goon

: 18/1210 (1.49%)

Total: 200/1210 (16.53%)

Putting it all together; it means that if groupscum have =rand accuracy and full control over the lim then the chance of a -EV outcome trying to lim enemy groupscum is (1/5 * 200/1210 = 200/6050 (3.31%))

-Nameless

[usesPython]

Also just for completeness because 222 was assuming a vote for No Lim until a nightkill happened, if there's no lim today then the nightkill chances are:

Ice Mafia Goon

+

Fire Mafia Goon

: 40/1452 (2.75%)

Fire Mafia Goon

+

Town

: 182/1452 (12.53%)

Ice Mafia Goon

+

Town

: 182/1452 (12.53%)

Town

+

Town

: 736/1452 (50.69%)

Fire Mafia Goon

: 20/1452 (1.38%)

Ice Mafia Goon

: 20/1452 (1.38%)

Town

: 164/1452 (11.29%)
No Kill: 108/1452 (7.44%)

-Nameless