Open 876 - Fire and Ice - Postgame

[Black]

We're quite literally the designated miselim d2

Not quite. Two people will potentially die N1 and they could easily come from that pool. And even if they all survive you're assuming reads and opinions never change, and also that you don't have the ability to change them, which I disagree with on both counts

[usesPython]

We're quite literally the designated miselim d2

Not quite. Two people will potentially die N1 and they could easily come from that pool. And even if they all survive you're assuming reads and opinions never change, and also that you don't have the ability to change them, which I disagree with on both counts

Name one person this game who I've convinced to stop scumreading me

-A

[Black]

Besides, if you think the town essentially loses with a D1 mislim, how does you getting limmed D2 change those odds? Would your team still be favored to win?

Your entire argument here is based on the idea that it's somehow possible for us to not get limmed d2, please get out of your tunnel for a minute and really look at the gamestate

-A

It's extremely possible that you survive D2

I still would like an answer for this if you could. If Drew is town and gets limmed D1, then we lim scum!you D2, would your team still be favored to win? This time I'm asking for mech, so bring it

[usesPython]

Besides, if you think the town essentially loses with a D1 mislim, how does you getting limmed D2 change those odds? Would your team still be favored to win?

Your entire argument here is based on the idea that it's somehow possible for us to not get limmed d2, please get out of your tunnel for a minute and really look at the gamestate

-A

It's extremely possible that you survive D2

I still would like an answer for this if you could. If Drew is town and gets limmed D1, then we lim scum!you D2, would your team still be favored to win? This time I'm asking for mech, so bring it

I'd have to ask bianco for the exact numbers since I still haven't finished writing an EV simulator for this setup but intuitively it'd be something around 25/25/50 winrate wise. Bianco you mind running the numbers on this?

-Nameless

[biancospino]

if you insist.

EV with the constraints mislim D1 and ice lim D1 are
FIRE =~ 50%
ICE =~ 18%
TOWN =~ 30%
DRAW =~ 2%

assuming random lims and actions

[biancospino]

*ice lim D2

[usesPython]

Thanks

-Nameless

[Black]

So saying town essentially loses day 1 if they mislim is just demonstrably false

[usesPython]

So saying town essentially loses day 1 if they mislim is just demonstrably false

We do because I'm town and the designated d2 mislim

-A

[Black]

So saying town essentially loses day 1 if they mislim is just demonstrably false

We do because I'm town and the designated d2 mislim

-A

But if we lim you D1 and lim scum D2 then town still has a 30% chance to win (assuming Bianco 's math checks out)

How does 30% WR = a loss?

[usesPython]

So saying town essentially loses day 1 if they mislim is just demonstrably false

We do because I'm town and the designated d2 mislim

-A

But if we lim you D1 and lim scum D2 then town still has a 30% chance to win (assuming Bianco 's math checks out)

How does 30% WR = a loss?

That would require the d2 lim to not be me

-A

[Black]

That would require the d2 lim to not be me

What? Obviously it wouldn't be you if you're the D1 lim

[usesPython]

Like please understand that the only people that have our back are furtive and maybe bianco, we're very much the compromise lim tomorrow

-A

[Black]

What I'm saying is...if you're town and we mislim you D1, and then lim let's say Drew D2 and he's scum...that still leaves town with a 30% chance of winning. So why did you say earlier that town essentially loses with a D1 mislim?

[usesPython]

That would require the d2 lim to not be me

What? Obviously it wouldn't be you if you're the D1 lim

Town winrate is like 20% in 2/2/6, us getting limmed d1 is also a loss because there's no guarantee that Drew gets limmed tomorrow

-A

[biancospino]

What I'm saying is...if you're town and we mislim you D1, and then lim let's say Drew D2 and he's scum...that still leaves town with a 30% chance of winning. So why did you say earlier that town essentially loses with a D1 mislim?

Just to be clear, the 30% figure is a weighted average across all the ways N1 could go. There are specific scenarios where the figure is significantly worse.

[usesPython]

Like we've put in more effort this game than a third of the playerlist combined, please understand where we're coming from when we say that the situation is already pretty bleak if we don't gambit here. Can you honestly say that Drew or Bulge get wagoned instead of Kokichi going for a Black wagon or some other bullshit happening?

-A

[Black]

Can you honestly say that Drew or Bulge get wagoned instead of Kokichi going for a Black wagon or some other bullshit happening?

100%. There's way more traction for a Bulge/Drew wagon. I'm pretty sure I'm the only one that thought Kokichi was scummy for his push/the way he's playing. And don't you TR Kokichi for his push? Why are you assuming people will suddenly think his Black wagon is scummy and vote for him over Drew/Bulge who already have multiple votes against them?

[usesPython]

100%. There's way more traction for a Bulge/Drew wagon. I'm pretty sure I'm the only one that thought Kokichi was scummy for his push/the way he's playing. And don't you TR Kokichi for his push? Why are you assuming people will suddenly think his Black wagon is scummy and vote for him over Drew/Bulge who already have multiple votes against them?

I'm saying Kokichi starts a Black wagon, not that Kokichi gets wagoned

-A

[usesPython]

Kokichi's willing to push you, HPE and Osuka are on the fence. A little powerwolfing and the vote goes through

-A

[Black]

Like bringing up the Kokichi wagon as if everyone thinks it's some scummy thing is throwing me off here

[Black]

Oh nvm, I see #719

[Black]

This conversation has me dizzy

[Black]

Kokichi's willing to push you, HPE and Osuka are on the fence. A little powerwolfing and the vote goes through

-A

If I get limmed off of some bullshit meta wagon that Kokichi refuses to even elaborate on, imma be pissed. Like how is yelling "black is scum!" over and over again just getting a pass from literally everyone?

[Black]

Why do you even TR Kokichi so much python?