Open 876 - Fire and Ice - Postgame

[Alianna]

1.19

Votecount 1.19

usesPython (E-2): Oclaxian Empire, The Bulge, Doctor Drew, Black, Malakittens
The Bulge (E-2): Enchant, biancospino, usesPython, furtiveglance, HighPrincessErinys
Black (1): Kokichi Oma
Malakittens (1): Aureal

Not Voting (1): osuka

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-04-20 18:48:28).

[usesPython]

I disagree. For, if the Bulge is town, you're basically saying that scum!Drew is either actually tr'ing him but still putting up a guard in case he happens to be otherscum -- which Drew would think won't happen, because tr--; or is pretending to tr him, which would make very little sense as we've extensively established that scum wants to lim otherscum.

One thing to point out in this case: scum!Drew can throw a tr towards unaligned!Bulge because the gamestate of buddying Bulge benefits him even if Bulge is null (or even a scumlean depending on his other reads). Basically, why are you assuming that Drew is actually serious about his tr on Bulge if he's not really doing anything to defend them?

-A

[usesPython]

Like keep in mind that scum also have to avoid getting nightkilled during the night, if you think someone is scum then buddying up to them as otherscum is a decent strategy to avoid getting nightkilled. Giving out tr's means you've either tr'd town (in which case you get a new buddy) or you tr'd otherscum (in which case they don't shoot you because you're keeping them alive)

-A

[usesPython]

If it's a scum!Drew + unaligned!Bulge game then think of the gamestate after Drew'd push Bulge for the weird associatives if Bulge flips scum: suddenly Drew looks townie as hell because he called out scum being scum and then either gets shot or gets people wondering why he hasn't been shot.

Like yes scum limming other scum is great for scum but there's downsides to getting tr'd too early that I think scum!Drew'd be aware of, especially when you can buddy them instead and push them later when the +town is more useful

-A

[usesPython]

I think the problem that both you and Nameless (and me a little too) have is that you're both getting lost in the EV sauce without really thinking about the real gamestate that comes out of those EV equations

-A

[Oclaxian Empire]

I am opposed to voting Drew right now. If it's a matter of it's Drew or no-lim, I could maybe be swayed into it, but I currently do not want to vote Drew.

[biancospino]

See, @Python, if you do any of those things to make a buddy, you need your new buddy to remain alive or you've wasted your time. To which Drew didn't put any effort at all.
And if you do want to pretend to push on the associative, you have to aknowledge that the associative exist in the first place. I really do not see how you think a scum!bulge flip would help drew any here.

In fact what Drew has done a lot more of is sr'ing

me

. I know why he does it and I know he believes it. You'll have to take my word for it that the manner of it is something that would deeply surprise me if it came from scum

[osuka]

809 took 7 minutes in the editor to post from start to finish since he mentions getting sniped by Oclax, it could
have been all of those things but if it wasn't phoneposting it'd have been more likely AI than not to take that much time to post something that short

fair - i missed the pedit

[osuka]

dude i'm reading the python posts on page 40 and i'm now struggling to see that slot as scum. they make sense and i kinda hate that they make sense?

[osuka]

Also since it looks like the limpool for today is pretty solidified we might as well reveal the tell we were talking about earlier

Having said that though, there's a very specific scumtell to multiball that can still be used D1. We'll reveal it towards the end of the dayphase instead of right now to see if anyone falls for it

-Nameless

@Python - ok...so how is that different than normal mafia? Everyone is looking for scum D1 and there's no real way to tell the motives yet. The people on my wagon could be townies pushing possible scum, scum pushing a possible townie, or scum pushing possible opposing scum. How do you tell the difference?

Yeah everyone's trying to lim mafia, but who are people trying not to lim

-A

Properly scumhunting d1 in multiball has nothing to do with mech. To state the real obvious, the only mech you need to know to scumhunt d1 in multiball is:

• Ice Mafia's
  preferred elims today are:
  Fire Mafia
  ,
  Town
  ,
  Ice Mafia
  
  
• Fire Mafia's
  preferred elims today are:
  Ice Mafia
  ,
  Town
  ,
  Fire Mafia
  
  
• Town's
  preferred elims today are:
  Mafia
  ,
  Town

To make it very explicit:

• For scum the only unacceptable lim is a lim on their own groupscum, if town gets limmed then they're still tied in first place for winrate in an X/2/2 scenario so they don't really mind a town mislim if preventing it means they have to stick their neck out for them.
  
• For town, a lim on any scum is acceptable and a lim on any town is unacceptable.

In otherwords, the strongest scumtells in multiball outside of awkward S/S interactions are:

• Refusing to townhunt (Weak tell, could come down to playstyle)
  
• Not doing everything in your power to defend people you consider town (Strong tell)

for something that was pitched as being game-changing and defining for d1 this is unfathomably underwhelming and again, patently obvious to anyone who bothered to think about it

[osuka]

I mean from our perspective 1/3 of the scumreads on us are scum being survivalistic, 1/3 of the scumreads on us are basically a policy lim, and the last 1/3 are people metaing us as a singlet instead of a system so we can kinda see were you're coming from

-A

this is false. nobody said anything about a policy exec and the meta defense is pretty shit. i'm even willing to overlook the "scum being survivalistic" bit even if that's probably untrue, but you know whatever fuck it

[osuka]

Actually thought experiment since this tends to be the fastest way to stop powerwolves: There's people who aren't ok with our lim, who here is NOT ok with a Drew lim today?

-A

i'm not ok with drew d1

[osuka]

*sighs at changing pages actually eating mostly written phone-post*

I don't think I'm metaing you, Python? I mean, you were town in that game we played together. I did read a bit of your scum game too. I don't think I can really tell the difference. Any comment I might have made on you being different is pretty much just tongue in cheek commentary like I tend to make when playing with people I've had notable interactions with before.

I really kinda hate that Mala vote. I've been giving her a pass since she's sick but if she's not too sick to E-1 someone with no reason with like half the deadline left while she knows Enchant can hammer I guess she can get a VOTE: Malakittens for now.

i'm 100% on board with this

VOTE: mala

[osuka]

I disagree. For, if the Bulge is town, you're basically saying that scum!Drew is either actually tr'ing him but still putting up a guard in case he happens to be otherscum -- which Drew would think won't happen, because tr--; or is pretending to tr him, which would make very little sense as we've extensively established that scum wants to lim otherscum.

One thing to point out in this case: scum!Drew can throw a tr towards unaligned!Bulge because the gamestate of buddying Bulge benefits him even if Bulge is null (or even a scumlean depending on his other reads). Basically, why are you assuming that Drew is actually serious about his tr on Bulge if he's not really doing anything to defend them?

-A

a key part of playing scum is to stay alive until endgame. there are fewer scum than town, so one townie getting flipped is not as good as one scum getting flipped is bad. if drew has a genuine tr on bulge, then he might want to defend bulge solely on the basis of getting towncred off of it.

are you still saying the team is drew/bulge?

[osuka]

if it was a drew/bulge scumteam, it makes zero sense that drew wouldn't come to bat for bulge. if it's NOT a drew/bulge scumteam, then i struggle to see half of the reason we got drew to e-2 in the first place.

regardless of alignment, you have incentive (of varying degrees) to keep your townreads away from being executed. the way i see it, if you're scum you have a significantly higher than random chance at picking a slot and having it be town. since you're removing 2 scum slots from the pool, the probability of a random slot being green skews even higher

this is complicated by the fact that we're in a multiball but most of the time, scum can still get away with picking a random slot they like and saying "this is town" - not just because it's overwhelmingly likely to be town, but also because even if they aren't, it somewhat benefits them (at least early on) to have that slot around - as you yourself pointed out

[Black]

VOTE: malakittens

[Kokichi Oma]

I would feel bad if you're town, but I don't think you're town.

See you in the postgame then. I'm done talking to you and I will be actively avoiding games with you in it from now on

yikes, trying to make things personal when there is no reason to be

[usesPython]

for something that was pitched as being game-changing and defining for d1 this is unfathomably underwhelming and again, patently obvious to anyone who bothered to think about it

Yeah but the question is how many scum this game just saw "scumhunting always good" and went on autopilot without thinking any deeper (especially with how many people in this playerlist are allergic to any sort of mech)

-A

if it was a drew/bulge scumteam, it makes zero sense that drew wouldn't come to bat for bulge. if it's NOT a drew/bulge scumteam, then i struggle to see half of the reason we got drew to e-2 in the first place.

When you think about it, Drew doesn't

need

to go bat for Bulge in a Bulge/Drew game if just getting me limmed does the exact same thing. Like imagine if the day ended on like page 30 before the Bulge flashwagon, was anyone seriously gonna do anything other than pretend d1 never happened?

-A

[Kokichi Oma]

osuka is receiving a warning for post 966.

I feel like there has been much worse posted, by me even.

Oh jeez

[Kokichi Oma]

*sighs at changing pages actually eating mostly written phone-post*

I don't think I'm metaing you, Python? I mean, you were town in that game we played together. I did read a bit of your scum game too. I don't think I can really tell the difference. Any comment I might have made on you being different is pretty much just tongue in cheek commentary like I tend to make when playing with people I've had notable interactions with before.

I really kinda hate that Mala vote. I've been giving her a pass since she's sick but if she's not too sick to E-1 someone with no reason with like half the deadline left while she knows Enchant can hammer I guess she can get a VOTE: Malakittens for now.

I'm fine with this vote

VOTE: Malakittens

[Kokichi Oma]

E-3 for mala. I can't see why python and bulge are/were the biggest votes so far today

[usesPython]

I mean from our perspective 1/3 of the scumreads on us are scum being survivalistic, 1/3 of the scumreads on us are basically a policy lim, and the last 1/3 are people metaing us as a singlet instead of a system so we can kinda see were you're coming from

-A

this is false. nobody said anything about a policy exec and the meta defense is pretty shit. i'm even willing to overlook the "scum being survivalistic" bit even if that's probably untrue, but you know whatever fuck it

We're being petty at this point but how else are we supposed to take this as?

-A

2. i will lose fewer brain cells every time i read the thread because i can't take any more of the mech talk, please make it stop it's too many numbers my brain can't take this i'm losing my mind. i swear to fuck if i have to read some shit about expected values again i will fucking combust

[Enchant]

All mech talk i saw is:
MAFIA WANTS TO ELIMINATE OTHER TEAM MAFIA AND DON'T WANT TO ELIMINATE SELF.
TOWN WANT TO KILL MAFIA

And dumb numbers which "confirm" it.

[usesPython]

E-3 for mala. I can't see why python and bulge are/were the biggest votes so far today

Bulge happened because 1/3rd people tring me and hopping on the wagon, 1/3rd Enchant finding counterwagons funny, and 1/3rd Bianco and I having an sr there; plus another 1/2 me coordinating people to make the wagon happen

Our wagon happening we can't really explain without scum interference so take that how you will

-A

[usesPython]

All mech talk i saw is:
MAFIA WANTS TO ELIMINATE OTHER TEAM MAFIA AND DON'T WANT TO ELIMINATE SELF.
TOWN WANT TO KILL MAFIA

And dumb numbers which "confirm" it.

To beat a dead horse here, there's mechanics in play that functionally give every townie (and this only applies to townies) X% Bulletproof which is what started the mech talk

-Nameless