TM 2023 | Open: PYP S_TM | Endgame

[Gimli]

I picked number 2 cause I'm shite

[Gimli]

oh no that's an unfortunate page top

[Datisi]

wait

so my team said datisi picks 1 every time, why did you pick 1 mena

I also pick 1 every time, Datisi can do one (<3)

why are you like this

Datisi has done exactly what I expected as either alignment which is null but encouraging to me when it comes to my capacity for prediction lol

i don't see a datisi vote with similar reasoning in your iso which means *my* capacity for prediction is bad

Honestly I would have if it hadn’t been for the mini breakdown at realising the thread was already 13 pages long by the time I got to the bottom of page 1

something something it's never too late

anyway, were you/your team aware that i always pick 1? was there a convo happening about that? i know we played together in at least one pyp, not sure if there was more you're aware of

[Gimli]

tentatively townleaning on imaginality's entrance, it mirrors my thoughts on stuff while making a much more proper post than I could

I guess I like datisi's effort in reading the thing through. I won't, at least not for now

[Gimli]

are we trying to demoralize the whole fucking playerlist 4 hours into the game?

cause I'm comfortable enough to admit this is largely about my ego at this point

i want to prove you wrong

please stop
i'm annoyed
ME
I'M ANNOYED

like the emotions in these posts

[Bellaphant]

Klicks hot take is everyone active rn is town apart from lld who is actively trying to make the thread miserable.

They aren't lock sure on that, they seem fairly sure yhtan is town.

[Bellaphant]

Actually he got a lot more sure and would just lld.
.he thinks rad ia town

His readlist incoming

[Bellaphant]

Up to 15 Up to page 15

TOWN
Ythan
Alisae
imaginality
Rad

LEAN TOWN
Mena

NULL
Cephrir
Datisi
Gimli
Marashu
mith
Staeg

SCUM
LLD

[Datisi]

Lld if you think ythan is town and you're town, let's calm down and move on

i don't like this post. townreading lld for things that she said multiple times (was it multiple times? i'm gonna assume lmao i been skimming her posts) is NAI and offering a game where she had a p similar thing as scum is like. idk why do you ask for a game where she was emotional as scum as counterevidence then not really use it. but also this post itself feels... performative, i guess? like he doesn't say he townreads ythan or has any thoughts on her. it feels like a nothingburger-pockety scumpost.

oh and 135 as well.

like compared with alisae on this page, it seems like they're actually trying to defuse the situation and get these two to understand each other. am i townleaning alisae now? i might be.

oh, i just had a vision - the only way ythan can be scum is if she's scum with lld. i *could* see this as being planned where lld makes this grand post about not killing in the top draft, then ythan susses her for it, and then they get into a shitfight. i don't think ythan would convince enough people to push lld through (no offense ythan) and lld can come to a townread on her and then keep going "but she high in draft we can't kill her high in draft"

it's still much more likely ythan is Literally Just Town, though.

ok sorry i'm not reading anymore of lld ythan

i agree with p much all imaginality has said in 215. but also i explicitly do not townread them.

I was informed that Datisi always picks 1 and not to pick it this game. Like, apparently Datisi always picks 1 to trust tell levels of confidence.

fwiw i never intended my 1 picking to be trust tell levels or whatever that means - i was seriously considering picking something else here. but also i definitely could pick something else and i don't like this language about my picks pls don't

ok i'm on page 13 and i really do not care about the numbers discussion right now, i need to go get food and do things

VOTE: Rad

[Marashu]

Just woke up, and I see there's already 17 pages in the past 6 hours. Going to start reading now.

[Marashu]

okay, so do you know why my team was able to predict that we should never pick 6?

Because 6 is the single most picked number in PYP history. The literal last game of this that was run I was scum in even included multiple people on 6s.

When 3 players end up on the same number, and that number is famously known for being highly picked, it's very likely there is one scum in the list if not 2 doing a scum gambit that has HAPPENED IN TEAM MAFIA BEFORE (Faraday and Hoopla did it).

Even from a statistical model, 3 people picking the same number contains scum a large percent of the time.

And finally, killing on the bottom end of the draft pool reduces scum's opportunity to learn our roles by pressuring our top end, forcing a clam and backing off and then forcing another claim, a strategy I employed as scum literally 2 months ago when I last played this game as scum and nearly won.

My team was debating between 4, 6, and 7. For our sampling, we looked at the last 5 times PYP S_S was run. 4 was more common than 6 (6 only being chosen by 3 people across all 5 games). 7 was less common than 6 but we figured 7 might be a more recognizable number (lucky 7) and more likely for people to pick in this specific game. In hindsight, it was more likely to be closer to median than 4 so was more likely to be common.

[Marashu]

Lld if you think ythan is town and you're town, let's calm down and move on

This pings me as slightly +scum trying to look moderate.

[Marashu]

tbh I picked 6 because my teammates are marashu and imaginality and I wanted to spell out the devil numbers as a team to spell out how doomed it is

Shh! We agreed that was going to be the big reveal

[Gimli]

VOTE: marashu

[Marashu]

Caught up. VOTE: Rad

I like Bellaphant for town.

Quick gut impressions (because I start work in like 5 minutes and my entire morning was reading this thread), this is in range for LLD as either alignment, but the argument itself I think is sound. Alisae could be town (have we been in a game where I was town? I don't have time to check). Bit of a tougher time reading Ythan. I'm terrible at reading Datisi but seems town so far. No strong opinions yet about other players.

I'll check back in a few hours.

[Staeg]

Not fond of Rad's presence being the LLD null-or-town debacle + let's all take a breath, but the latter really isn't what I'd bill Rad for; Marashu's entrance being justify vote -> scumreading Rad for the moderation -> piggyback joke haha we're scum -> hop on Rad bandwagon was impressive, Gimli has the right idea

Implosion came in with good takes but then RVS'd instead of doing a real vote, which they still haven't moved; I like them following up on some of relevant setup theory bits ("this game does median, so how good is the data from previous games" + "you included the 1-in-5 as positive examples, but in reality those point in the opposite direction"), but they don't do anything with the protracted theory conversation (or otherwise) so I'm leaning scum on this one, too

VOTE: Marashu

[Datisi]

Marashu's entrance being justify vote -> scumreading Rad for the moderation -> piggyback joke haha we're scum -> hop on Rad bandwagon was impressive, Gimli has the right idea

why was this impressive? assuming impressive means very scummy here

[Staeg]

Ythan, I'm confused about your read progression on LLD - at the time of your vote LLD indeed hadn't given much substance to her theory argument, but through all the good and bad arguments LLD gives afterwards you don't seem to move much at all. I gather that you're not fond of her reaction to the vote and that more theory arguments swing and miss, but what is the thing that she's doing which is actually suspicious?

(I don't have strong takes on the extended battle beyond not getting how as either alignment LLD and Ythan keep talking past each other)

[Staeg]

Marashu's entrance being justify vote -> scumreading Rad for the moderation -> piggyback joke haha we're scum -> hop on Rad bandwagon was impressive, Gimli has the right idea

why was this impressive? assuming impressive means very scummy here

Aye - engaging with

only

the parts of the theory discussion that involve the triple vote they were part of feels like ass-covering instead of caring that much about theory (LLD's argument isn't sound, I expect that given someone already pointing this out he'd at least notice) and I really don't see how the most suspicious thing in all 16 pages is Rad's moderation

The joke reads as off-key "haha yes I, the townie, am also comfortable joking about being scum" but idk that's in the same tier as "the way Rad did moderation felt scummy", it's just a cherry on top

[Datisi]

so what's the difference for you between marashu voting rad and me voting rad?

[Staeg]

so what's the difference for you between marashu voting rad and me voting rad?

I like your takes on the LLD-Ythan debacle, the kinds of questions you ask people feel like they're pushing for the right kinds of info to come out (getting stories straight in who did and didn't know you go 1, what's up with Alisae's #12) and your vote in itself had way more juice than just "lol this moderation seems scummy, ight imma take off"

All of that is post-hoc after going back and reading your ISO tho, the short answer is you seem solidly town in vibe and content while Marashu doesn't have anything other than a wishy-washy townlist

[Menalque]

wait

so my team said datisi picks 1 every time, why did you pick 1 mena

I also pick 1 every time, Datisi can do one (<3)

why are you like this

Datisi has done exactly what I expected as either alignment which is null but encouraging to me when it comes to my capacity for prediction lol

i don't see a datisi vote with similar reasoning in your iso which means *my* capacity for prediction is bad

Honestly I would have if it hadn’t been for the mini breakdown at realising the thread was already 13 pages long by the time I got to the bottom of page 1

something something it's never too late

anyway, were you/your team aware that i always pick 1? was there a convo happening about that? i know we played together in at least one pyp, not sure if there was more you're aware of

It takes two to tango friend-o

Also the extent of the draft discussion was me saying “I’m gonna pick 1” and jingle saying “that’s cool” p much

[Menalque]

Jingle agrees that we shouldn’t target people in the top 6 positions but only as a guideline that can be overridden by stronger reads

Also says any vigs need to claim by D2 at latest because their scum utility is way higher than town utility and that’s amplified the higher in the draft they are

[Datisi]

alright i like staeg for now

tho i gotta say i think i'm setting some high expectations for them, just from what they've posted so far. also i'll ask the oldies in my team if they have any meta knowledge.

[Menalque]

I’m waiting to hear back on the limming in the 6s thing, but koba thinks scum is likely in Maru/ali so I guess I might end up backing a lim there anyway