Mini 2297 | Conception | Postgame

[Hugir]

Either I’ve been bamboozled hard before (both AD and Fey were strong townread D1 for me)
Or I’m being bamboozled hard right now (At least one of AD and Fey are town and I’m being rekt somewhere)

This is not a pleasant feeling

So like; let's start small. Like real small.

Please look back on D1 and look at the votes for Ice / Rauth. Consider it homework. Tell me what you see

Please don’t give me homework on my birthday

[Hugir]

Why are you ruling Abnegation out?

Cos I think she town and read is strong enough to overrule the roleblock shenanigans

[Hugir]

Flavor Leaf, Keeper, Hugir are my top scum candidates right now.

Read as bad as your night action
Except the keeper part

[furtiveglance]

Flavor Leaf, Keeper, Hugir are my top scum candidates right now.

Read as bad as your night action
Except the keeper part

Hap-hap-hap-hap-hap-happy birthday

You are sus in spite of being the cool birthday haver

[Hugir]

Flavor Leaf, Keeper, Hugir are my top scum candidates right now.

Read as bad as your night action
Except the keeper part

Hap-hap-hap-hap-hap-happy birthday

You are sus in spite of being the cool birthday haver

[ActionDan]

Let's see how much I can through before I have to jump on a nice refreshing work call at 9am my boss setup.

@1070 and 1072. The Answer is yes. I try to emulate my town game as much as I can in general. The last time someone accused me of being too logical and being scum where I was in fact scum was a long time ago. If you care enough to want to read it I'll look it up later it was a pretty fun and wp game by all if I recall. But I'm no mafia master, I in general do not last long as scum. It's not the best example since I replaced in to a suspected slot but you can take a look at hollow knight mafia, that is by far the most common scum experience for me. (If I made an impression irl well that's just my natural charm )

I made 1036 and I do hope it reads genuine because I am in fact happy to see you. But I did at that point skim the 2 pages prior and in my cursory look I didn't like what I saw and saw you were targeting me as well. I was not precluding you from being town. I haven't voted even now. If you are town I think I'll be able to tell with your activity which I appreciate.

Concerning 1069 briefly:

I have no qualms about you using VCA, it's what I'd do too if I were behind. But your conclusions from your VCA

aren't

leading you to occum's razor solutions. I can understand using it to point to green. Makes a lot of sense since Rauth wagon was a big part of D1 and was green, but you're putting always 1 and possibly 2 red scum on a 5/7 ice wagon for no reason other than because you feel like it. Me / Furtive / Feysal are on; You / Keeper / Hugir are off. You've been clear already that you think Me / Furtive are scum. is that really just from VCA? Do not see why I'd detect some bias there?

Also not debating 2v2. that's a fine assumption, not sure if you think I am questioning you on that because I'm not. (also read Rauth's flip). I will say you have been doing preflip stuff at least implicitly.

I will look at Feysal / Rauth interactions again. your vote on Feysal which carries weight especially since Enchant was voting there, is a vote to kill. and it only based to my knowledge on VCA at the time. It's at that point even if you're just starting up getting into the game with VCA where I would expect you to actually do more investigative work to feel comfortable with it.

Will agree that I don't know what advantage flip flopping on ab would do for you as scum. That's not my focus, its more important if it makes sense to do and my thought is no. Ab's posts inbetween your flipped read aren't super townie. They're fine, but aren't especially AI.

Both landing on Feysal with 3/5 votes should strike you as not necessarily consensus!

Out of time! more to say! look forward to continue!

[IceDragon70]

Okay guys, since almost everyone claimed but not all, I would actually like everyone to claim at this stage.
Yes, it might give scum some knowledge regarding optimal night play, but I believe at least 2 scum haven't claimed and we might be able to fogure things out mechwise based on claims.
Also, I may have a mech-related way to confirm a certain claim, so we can get an additional confirmed town if we massclaim.

I will finish readong p43-44 shortly, and then I will post my idea of who is town and who is scum.

[IceDragon70]

I don’t think benediction would have a fruit vendor and checker as power that sounds kinda terribad

was just going to say this.
i think fey red is pretty likely.

What???
Don't you think they are town?

[IceDragon70]

Either I’ve been bamboozled hard before (both AD and Fey were strong townread D1 for me)
Or I’m being bamboozled hard right now (At least one of AD and Fey are town and I’m being rekt somewhere)

This is not a pleasant feeling

Yeah I am in agreement about them being previous townreads, and feeling slightly bamboozled, though I disagree that they have to be scum here.

[IceDragon70]

I don’t think benediction would have a fruit vendor and checker as power that sounds kinda terribad

was just going to say this.
i think fey red is pretty likely.

I think the roleblock reason isn’t strong enough to have their confidence with it.


It’s a solid possibility, but I’m just getting vibes of them using that as a strong base for a misfade push.

What's "misfade"?

[IceDragon70]

I have an idea that Keeper could've used the publishing benediction cop on himself.

@Mod, is there a possibility of any role abilities or factional abilities that can self-target in the game?

[IceDragon70]

ActionDan's 1063 is actually starting to convince me that Abnegation is greenscum.

[IceDragon70]

Time to do some mech speculation! Yay!

First, I would like to reiterate my desire that everyone claim here. I think there's a high possibility of a clear just based on claims, which atm I won't elaborate on.

Now, for the speculation:

Spoiler: night kills and roleblock

So, let's look at what's going on with night kills.
There are two scum groups, but there's only been one night kill every night. There are three possible explanations for that:
1. Only one scum group has a standard nightkill.
2. Nightkills have been somehow interrupted.
3. Scum targeted same person with night kills.

3 is ruled out due to Rauth explicity saying greenscum won't be shooting HFO N1, and HFO still being shot.

1 is possible, but feels potentially unfair to me, especially if one scumteam doesn't have a kill at all. It woud probably only be fair with an arsonist kill.
Maybe I am missing something though, so feel free to point it out if I am missing something.

2 has two possibilities I can see:
2a. scum were roleblocked, preventing the kill.
2b. kill target was saved / is BP.

If 2b, I would love doc/BP to claim so we don't miselim abnegation.
if 2a, then anyone who's roleblocked someone else than abnegation should claim now. Otherwise it is indeed confirmed that abnegation were roleblocked from doing the kill.

I would like to point out thougu that read wise, I still think abnegation is townie af, and I find it hard to believe we're in 2a, even though I've just said the other options are unlikely. So I would like any claims that disprove 2a to happen right now, if possible.

Spoiler: Keeper's Benediction clear

So we know Keeper is mod confirmed not to be Benediction. This confirmation came at the start of D2, and is probably the result of some night action.
Since nobody has claimed the ability, I'll assume it was used by scum, until someone claims the ability (during massclaim, which I'm still hoping to see).
Now, it can't really be used by Benediction because why would Benediction even have a Benediction cop? That would require a completely crazy mod that's out to get everyone.
No, I think it was used by Malediction.
Earlier I tended to think that Malediction investigating Keeper was indicative that Keeper isn't actually aligned with Malediction.
But right now I think that if anything, Malediction might have investigated themself in order to cause confusion and possibly even semi-clear Keeper - they knew it would cause some confusion since from interaction with Rauth it was already known Keeper wasn't green, and it would make Keeper look good.

Due to the above, I basically think redscum is Keeper and FL for now. FL for his predecessor's associative defense of Keeper.
Also Keeper is acummy in theor own right, for horrible playstyle and lack of reads.

VOTE: Keeper

(and guys, please claim your roles for the love of god)

[Flavor Leaf]

I think I'm just going to claim.

My role is Affiliation. Can target someone at night, and if they share Affiliation, they get put in a Vacuum together. Blue targeted Keeper Night 1, so I did see ActionDan mention something about noticing something with the two of them.

Unless you think I'm lying, this means Keeper/Myself are not scum together on a game design level.

You can see further that I knew Keeper wasn't the Flyer Vendor.

I also stated in that vacuum that Furt was lean scum prior to Furt's vote on me.

[Flavor Leaf]

I was Lean scum on Furtive prior to their vote on me.

I can prove it later, but i think im okay to take some heat right now

i did mention earlier i'd be able to prove it later

[furtiveglance]

I think I'm just going to claim.

My role is Affiliation. Can target someone at night, and if they share Affiliation, they get put in a Vacuum together. Blue targeted Keeper Night 1, so I did see ActionDan mention something about noticing something with the two of them.

Unless you think I'm lying, this means Keeper/Myself are not scum together on a game design level.

You can see further that I knew Keeper wasn't the Flyer Vendor.

I also stated in that vacuum that Furt was lean scum prior to Furt's vote on me.

Sounds like a Masonizer claim.

Mechanically, this means:

Keeper is only scum if Flavor Leaf is also scum.

Therefore, any votes on The Keeper should instead be on Flavor Leaf.

I think if I were to assume this claim being true, it puts the remaining 3 scum in some unlikely places, so I'll have to think on this one.

[Flavor Leaf]

I had no reason to claim that as scum without being scum with Keeper here either.

It's purely a Keeper defense.

I just didn't want to go down that pipeline.

[Flavor Leaf]

I think Fey's green, not red.

[Flavor Leaf]

which is also another bad move if I were RedScum here.

idk. I think gamestate wise it does look like I'm scum here, I'm not a terrible fade considering what it'll open up, but I'll keep giving my thoughts regardless.

[Flavor Leaf]

For what it's worth, I asked the mod if they could be scum with Affiliation, so it is possible for RedKeeper/TownFlavor.

It makes no sense for both Keeper/Myself to be Affiliation as same group scum on a game design level, but I'll let others analyze into that.

When I came into the game, it did seem like we were Pseudo-Masons. Keeper came into the Vacuum saying 'into a masonry no less', so they did play it like a Pseudo Masonry.

Blue specifically found a Keeper crumb, I guess, to successfully target Keeper.

[Flavor Leaf]

FL for his predecessor's associative defense of Keeper.

I'm more just defending this than defending Keeper here.

I can see Keeper as possible Red, I'm not fully convinced, as this is pretty par for the course townKeeper from what I've seen, but I was waiting to bring up the possibility until I felt like claiming.

[Flavor Leaf]

And it seems a lot of people are pushing Keeper/FL possibilities, so figured I'd just straight up explain, plus it gets the claims out of the way.

[Flavor Leaf]

I think I'm just going to claim.

My role is Affiliation. Can target someone at night, and if they share Affiliation, they get put in a Vacuum together. Blue targeted Keeper Night 1, so I did see ActionDan mention something about noticing something with the two of them.

Unless you think I'm lying, this means Keeper/Myself are not scum together on a game design level.

You can see further that I knew Keeper wasn't the Flyer Vendor.

I also stated in that vacuum that Furt was lean scum prior to Furt's vote on me.

Sounds like a Masonizer claim.

Mechanically, this means:

Keeper is only scum if Flavor Leaf is also scum.

Therefore, any votes on The Keeper should instead be on Flavor Leaf.

I think if I were to assume this claim being true, it puts the remaining 3 scum in some unlikely places, so I'll have to think on this one.

This is not true, and the fact that he saw it as Masonizer could be a possible Keeper-Furt connection, but I don't know if Keeper acts this way with Furt as their partner.

It would kinda fit with Furt coming after me after Keeper knew I was lean scum there, so it looked like OMGUS, but I'm not sure it goes that deep.

My Furt scum read had been fading a little bit, and I might be overthinking this, since I did semi see Keeper/Myself as Mason.

Keeper said into a masonry in the thread, and i hadnt said elsewise in the vacuum.

I need to think on some stuff.

Furt saying Masonry is weird here based on the role claim only.

[Flavor Leaf]

It just feels like a way to push onto me when mechanically what they said isn't actually applicable.

[Flavor Leaf]

I'm in this middle ground where Furt could be partially right, but Hugir town read me, so I cozied up and Furt scum read me so I attacked, but I did lean scum Furt prior to them going over to me.

So is TownFurt just wrong with me, and possibly right with Hugir, and I'm in a Hugir pocket?

Hmm. Thing is, Hugir slot Hebi head I town read easily, GIF slot I town read then get paranoia when they're town, so that also indicates Hugir town read for me right now.

This is where I'm at. I'm also starting to just lean town on AD. Posts make sense when I'm not as tunneled into Furt/AD, and I genuinely do get the FL suspicion at the time based on zero content/possible poe.

Fun little gamestate we got going here.