TM 2023 | Open: PYP S_TM | Endgame

[Alisae]

Or, ythan is telling the truth. It's probably jjh/dats +one other, and that other has to be not lld and klick says he 100% believes in mena down here.

I wanna talk to you about this!
Are you skeptical of the idea that Mena hates playing wolf and would likely not care all too much?
I really have Mena pegged as someone who would probably just vote Staeg d1 if they were going to shoot them. Based off of what he said himself he doesn't really care to play wolf and looking at the wolf games he posted it shows.
I feel like because of this, Mena to try to get the most value and also ending his misery would probably just vote Staeg if they thought they were a cop.

[Alisae]

P-edit hii, I won't be for long (feeding iz) klick says can you ask shirou thier perspective on the game?

only person who cares about my game is Norwee. The rest haven't really been able to keep up and honestly there isn't much to do.

[Alisae]

What does Klick think is the solution?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I haven’t been thinking a whole lot about the game (instead, I have been completely oblivious in TotK and solving puzzles in the most convoluted way possible), but kuribo whiteboarded Gimli’s D1 for associatives and I’ll try to summarize below.

But first, this caught my eye looking at the ISO, after Andante’s reason for hammering D2:

I think this is a lot over one vote though

If it were just over one vote, I wouldn't have given a breakdown of four votes in eight posts...

But ok, what about this interaction seems like "a lot" to you?

lots of words

I dont think you'll like interacting much with me rn but I appreciate the effort. speaking of me voting mara first, what do you think of the fact that marashu was definitely around to see me voting him in real time but chose to ignore it?

Also this:

as if scum is like super worried about getting the d1 flip instead of building good associatives and playing the long run

A rough summary of kuribo’s thoughts on Gimli ISO:

Shaded Mara, Cephrir, Staeg
Town on imaginality and Rad
Uncertain on Ali, no read on LLD or Mena
Doesn’t mention Bella much, but a town read
Nothing substantial for Ythan
Went from Datisi town to scum (some miscommunication here but he clarified, 970 has Datisi as “town?”, not much about Datisi until 2042 where he is “scum if Ceph is town”. Agree this is a weird progression. While trying to figure out what glue kuribo was sniffing I noticed 648/715 talk about Datisi a lot, in sort of a “I disagree but don’t suspect Datisi” way)

kuribo thinks Datisi interaction could be distancing, Bella and Ali possibly not wanting to give a firm read on a buddy (LLD also here for D1 alone, obviously if it’s Ythan/jjh/LLD playing this D3 LLD has been taking too many of the good drugs). All of the most significant pushes from Gimli have flipped town except for Datisi, but no vote there.

And then some stuff about his whiteboard that I need to actually zoom in and look at when my brain is less fuzzy.

So kuribo is on board with the shoot Datisi plan at least. I’m not going to give a 100% certain target for potential JK reasons, but it did occur to me earlier that I should probably rule out at least one target so that in the event of a jjh red flip Ythan has someone to investigate that isn’t getting shot (so that if scum decide to leave Ythan alive to push an unlikely Ythan/jjh gambit theory they would be risking Ythan being able to solve the game with time to spare; or if it *is* the Ythan/jjh gambit there’s less wiggle room for Ythan).

We both think the likeliest group is jjh/Datisi/Ali at this point.

"potential JK reasons"?

Mith... JK will roleblock you if it targets YOU

[Lady Lambdadelta]

There are zero worlds where your target being hidden does town ANY good.

[mith]

There are zero worlds where your target being hidden does town ANY good.

I started to explain it again and realized that a. it assumes I’m confirmed town, which you don’t know; and b. it was fever logic anyway.

The idea being that if scum do have a JK they aren’t required to target me with it (if they know I’m targeting town, they could let the shot through). But you’re right, I don’t think there is a world where us knowing they have a JK is mire damaging to them than us ruling out another potential scum.

I’ll announce my target (Datisi if nothing changes, but I’ll confirm just before we vote).

[Alisae]

P-edit hii, I won't be for long (feeding iz) klick says can you ask shirou thier perspective on the game?

only person who cares about my game is Norwee. The rest haven't really been able to keep up and honestly there isn't much to do.

The last time Shirou cared about my game was ancient history guy is getting Honkai Star Rail'd.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

There are zero worlds where your target being hidden does town ANY good.

I started to explain it again and realized that a. it assumes I’m confirmed town, which you don’t know; and b. it was fever logic anyway.

The idea being that if scum do have a JK they aren’t required to target me with it (if they know I’m targeting town, they could let the shot through). But you’re right, I don’t think there is a world where us knowing they have a JK is mire damaging to them than us ruling out another potential scum.

I’ll announce my target (Datisi if nothing changes, but I’ll confirm just before we vote).

If we hit town today, there's no world where that is true. (They'll always prefer to block you for the win).

If we hit scum today, if you hit town we just go into pure ELO instead of MELO and with both vigs off the table that means the only difference is we have one more confirmed alignment slot to look at. That's bad for them, they'd never let you do that. A flipped townie is still an extra flip we DON'T GET if they block you.

So whether we flip town or scum today, if the scumteam has access to the jailkeeper, they will block you directly.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

(but i also see you ended up agreeing with me anyway so who cares, semantics)

[Alisae]

Hey LLD, which potential jjh/datisi partners do you think is possible from most likely to least likely

[jjh927]

Fwiw if you expected me to have some new profound insight on the game by page 40 then maybe you could have progressed the game faster

60 pages in now

[jjh927]

This looks like the most alignment indicative LLD post I've read so far

Last thing from koba then I sleep, and lld I guess this has some relevance to your last post too:

They say that their approach is basically looking at which teams seems plausible/probable then choose who they think is the key person in that team if it’s correct (in this case imag) and try to kill then — if right they proceed to the next person in the team theory, if wrong they revise and they say this style of solving is easily apparent in their towngames

They say that for now rad/imag fit for sure and that you’re the least likely to be scum in their rad/imag/lld team theory which is also why they’ve not been trying to get me to push at you. They think the way you’ve played around each other could very well be from buddies who know each other’s alignments

Re: rad, from koba — doesn’t believe the worldview (e.g. having ythan in bottom of reads) and thinks rad is trying to powerscum (Editor’s note: I disagree here from the little I have read)

@rad koba would like it if you could please link a towngame where you played as town from the start and a scumgame that’s the same (also that neither are wild theme game but relatively normal). They’re trying to get a handle on you meta-wise

Hmm.

Interesting.

Koba and I have similar reads in that we want to kill Imaginality and Rad, but I'm in the camp of thinking one is scum and Koba thinks both.

So here's my thing, if one flips town I'm still killing the other, is Koba?

Here's the reverse: If one flips scum, I would usually think the other is town here but, for the sake of it... I'm willing to kill the other.

Like that's the trade, tbh. I'm suspicious enough of both of them to be like "if one flips scum, I'll kill the second one outright, if Koba agrees that if one flips town we kill the other one too".

I say that because I think you gotta place LLD on results and I won't even attempt tone with her despite that being my bread and butter.
But yeah, starting to see how the wagons panned out now that I am on page 74 (!).


On the back end of the game (the present), I am thinking that an Ythan / LLD / Mith scumteam would make a lot of sense in terms of gamestate. That would be a scumteam that managed to draft 2 vigs and the cop, which is a team that had a gameplan from the very start- line up 2 mislims, fake a guilty, end the game. Makes sense why LLD has been pushing the narrative that cop=town pick. Scum!Ythan has little reason to draft bulletproof when her buddies are draftings vigs, and gets to be verifiably ascetic.

[Menalque]

I am continuing to enjoy my lovely holiday in the south of Spain, I am keeping very busy visiting nice little beaches and towns and will try to catch up on what I’ve missed during my 8hr bus ride back to Madrid — until then, ciao!

[Lady Lambdadelta]

This looks like the most alignment indicative LLD post I've read so far

Last thing from koba then I sleep, and lld I guess this has some relevance to your last post too:

They say that their approach is basically looking at which teams seems plausible/probable then choose who they think is the key person in that team if it’s correct (in this case imag) and try to kill then — if right they proceed to the next person in the team theory, if wrong they revise and they say this style of solving is easily apparent in their towngames

They say that for now rad/imag fit for sure and that you’re the least likely to be scum in their rad/imag/lld team theory which is also why they’ve not been trying to get me to push at you. They think the way you’ve played around each other could very well be from buddies who know each other’s alignments

Re: rad, from koba — doesn’t believe the worldview (e.g. having ythan in bottom of reads) and thinks rad is trying to powerscum (Editor’s note: I disagree here from the little I have read)

@rad koba would like it if you could please link a towngame where you played as town from the start and a scumgame that’s the same (also that neither are wild theme game but relatively normal). They’re trying to get a handle on you meta-wise

Hmm.

Interesting.

Koba and I have similar reads in that we want to kill Imaginality and Rad, but I'm in the camp of thinking one is scum and Koba thinks both.

So here's my thing, if one flips town I'm still killing the other, is Koba?

Here's the reverse: If one flips scum, I would usually think the other is town here but, for the sake of it... I'm willing to kill the other.

Like that's the trade, tbh. I'm suspicious enough of both of them to be like "if one flips scum, I'll kill the second one outright, if Koba agrees that if one flips town we kill the other one too".

I say that because I think you gotta place LLD on results and I won't even attempt tone with her despite that being my bread and butter.
But yeah, starting to see how the wagons panned out now that I am on page 74 (!).


On the back end of the game (the present), I am thinking that an Ythan / LLD / Mith scumteam would make a lot of sense in terms of gamestate. That would be a scumteam that managed to draft 2 vigs and the cop, which is a team that had a gameplan from the very start- line up 2 mislims, fake a guilty, end the game. Makes sense why LLD has been pushing the narrative that cop=town pick. Scum!Ythan has little reason to draft bulletproof when her buddies are draftings vigs, and gets to be verifiably ascetic.

Ali, are you convinced yet?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Like not only was I not a part of the Rad wagon and actively considering a different option by the time the dude self hammered (a thing which happened in a recent game to me where I waa town, so frustrated people keep doing this shit) but also describing my stance as cop=town is ridiculous and a clear misrepresentation of my stance

[jjh927]

So you're saying you didn't have anything to do with Rad getting eliminated? Because your approach to Rad on day 1 in general sure looks like groundwork to me, perhaps more so knowing that you're ultimately off the wagon

And I would say the way you have been portraying things is exactly that the cop pick is the town option while the bulletproof is the scum option

[Alisae]

Like not only was I not a part of the Rad wagon and actively considering a different option by the time the dude self hammered (a thing which happened in a recent game to me where I waa town, so frustrated people keep doing this shit) but also describing my stance as cop=town is ridiculous and a clear misrepresentation of my stance

i hammered rad.
If I didn’t vote u would

[Alisae]

I’m pretty sure u were saying rad was the +ev elimination, no?

[mith]

Is there an M&M conveying overwhelming jealousy that I can post at Mena while I hack up a lung over here?

[previewedit]Ali is faster than me on the hammer thing.

[Alisae]

also if i was just gonna hammer rad without thinking about it i'd not be doing this little exercise. I'm not sure imaginality is town or if this is the path i want to go down but THEORETICALLY from an EV standpoint Rad is the right kill so

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Like not only was I not a part of the Rad wagon and actively considering a different option by the time the dude self hammered (a thing which happened in a recent game to me where I waa town, so frustrated people keep doing this shit) but also describing my stance as cop=town is ridiculous and a clear misrepresentation of my stance

i hammered rad.
If I didn’t vote u would

I said I was leaning that way but I wasn't really sure.

But I mis remembered? I thought rad hammered himself, you hammered Rad?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

also if i was just gonna hammer rad without thinking about it i'd not be doing this little exercise. I'm not sure imaginality is town or if this is the path i want to go down but THEORETICALLY from an EV standpoint Rad is the right kill so

Yeah that sure looks like I'm saying "avoiding extra claims is probably correct but I wasn't certain about it"

[Alisae]

2578 made I’m pulsively want to hammer rad cuz u said it was +ev and I thought it through

[Alisae]

Impulsively

[Alisae]

U said u were fascinated by my hammer.