Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[Cephrir]

want to look at sheep/woo/dunn/aisa eventually

not interested in menalque

[implosion]

You can talk about replace-outs after they happen (I think, I could be forgetting something but don't think I am). I personally think it's a good idea to never ascribe meaning to them on principle. I think it makes the game less fun but also essentially the rules right now are designed so that it is minimally possible to learn anything about the replacee from their replacing out, since they aren't allowed to say anything about it, so it's fundamentally a hard place to learn anything concrete.

i think you're usually good at mafia and the fact you can't find me as town right now makes me think that you are scum, regardless of what words you want to attach to that. i just don't buy that that is where town you wants to vote right now end of sentence

This is, kind of bs tbh. I mean I did essentially burden-of skitter two pages ago but like... a direct burden of proficiency argument against someone on you, who as far as I'm aware have a reputation as pretty hard to read, when skitter has an

eminently

reasonable line of thought to voting you right now.

Do you disagree with her framing of the game as "I'd be surprised if there are 0 scum on the wagon" and looking at those slots? Do you disagree with her for wanting to look at you before Alianna, sheep, or me, given that sheep and I have been I think pretty broadly townread this game? You've been spending 3/4 of the game saying you've had a hard time getting into it and no one has really pressured you up to this point. How should skitter magically be finding you as town??? At least, how should she have already done it a page ago?

Like, I can understand being frustrated and having indignation. I'm not saying that this is scummy from you, just that it's a very bad reason to scumread skitter.

I am glad to see you going through other people methodically.

[implosion]

I'd wagon Alianna if you want to.

[skitter30]

i could wagon her too
but like also want to do this ceph thing now

[implosion]

mhm. I don't think he's "bleeding green" but I also do think nothing about his reaction here particularly says scum to me. I am sort of a sucker for indignance to some degree (see also: Andante). And either way Ceph is eminently Doing Things moreso than he had been so I think this is a good result either way.

What are your feelings on Dunn right now?

[skitter30]

eh i dont' really townread it
i'm not sure it's scummy but like i don't think his reaction is townie either

dunn - nullscum, can wagon too

[skitter30]

i would prefer on wagon tho so would rather ceph/alianna rn

[Cephrir]

Do you disagree with her framing of the game as "I'd be surprised if there are 0 scum on the wagon" and looking at those slots?

It's not really relevant, but I do think that conclusion is too hasty

Do you disagree with her for wanting to look at you before Alianna, sheep, or me, given that sheep and I have been I think pretty broadly townread this game?

having just reviewed alianna, yes, i think she's a hell of a lot more suspicious than me

You've been spending 3/4 of the game saying you've had a hard time getting into it and no one has really pressured you up to this point. How should skitter magically be finding you as town??? At least, how should she have already done it a page ago?

oh, probably by reading my posts and observing the genuineness and town motivation in them or something, who can say

[skitter30]

i don't think that conclusion is hasty at all, and i don't think that objectively prior to this discussion your posts had an inherently 'geunine town motivation' for m e to see so

[Cephrir]

i mean objectively i have a town role pm so anything i post is town motivated

[skitter30]

i mean fair but that's true abt me form my pov too and that isn't going to help you townread me either, is it?

like this is kinda annoying to me b/c i think you're supposed to be competent and the things you're saying are a little ridiculous and i think you should know that

[Cephrir]

what specifically leads you to the conclusion that there must be scum on the wagon other than probability (since that is half the game)

is there some way in which someone who was pushing andante instead, if she is town, is somehow better

[skitter30]

i don't know for sure that there is, but i think it's exceedingly likely (you're trying to tell me it's more likely that there were *no* scum on that wagon? ...)

i don't follow your second question

[Cephrir]

of course it's likely -- that's just math

what i want to know is how focusing there is anything more than an arbitrary distinction

do you believe that all wagons that go through on town necessarily contain scum votes?

that's not how i play mafia. if there is a voter that specifically looks scummy (see: alianna), great! but i want to know why you're starting from an assumption.

i'm saying that i think most players who are active and weren't on enchant were persuing andante instead. i currently believe she is town, so i'm not assigning anyone credit for doing that instead of voting enchant

[skitter30]

I think that there was at least one scum on wagon. It's possible that there were 0, for sure, but i think this universe is a lot less likely than the universe where there is at least one scum vote, so i'm concentrating here

Once i start with: look for one scum vote on wagon
I'm left with a small-ish pool of 4 slots

So this is where i'm concentrating

[sheepsaysmeep]

I dislike the notion of "let's find the wolf on the wagon" and lazily think theres a wolf doing that

[Cephrir]

i don't think that answers my question on why it's different from an arbitrary discintion. why do you believe there was at least one scum on wagon

[skitter30]

b/c i think 0 is unlikely

[sheepsaysmeep]

I just think like, obviously statistically there is wolf, but relatively the wagon felt very town-driven. like I think this wagon has way less of an expected value of wolves contained than the average d1 wagon on a villager so I think "since we know there's a wolf on the wagon let's focus there" is agendaly misapplied to this game

I infact think youre far more likely to find wolf off-wagon, for whiteknighty reasons + if there are people who didnt get the enchant!wolf push, that feels legit a little >rand w

[Cephrir]

b/c i think 0 is unlikely

...why though... am i speaking a different language or something

[Cephrir]

not feeling a need to review sheep anymore

[sheepsaysmeep]

I sort of think Aisa's enactment of it is the worst, like asking 4 different people "why were you voting enchant? why didnt you give him more time?" bugs me a lot sry

it just feels fake when I feel like the unanimous reasons why enchant was wagoned + it makes sense to lim him without waiting to deadline are all already out there

it feels like too indirectly pushing the notion "we must find the wolf on the wagon" by doing shady lines of questioning whereas the other people outright saying they think theres wolf there are a bit less wolfy

[skitter30]

if there's statistically a wolf in a group of 4 people (which your'e conceding), i think that's easier than finding 2 in a pool of 8

i'm not saying there's 2+ i'm saying i'm thinking htere's at least 1

(also fwiw arguing that there isn't when you're on it is +w to me)

pedit b/c in the four billion games of mafia i've played, i've seen a lot more day1 wagons with wolves on them than day1 wagons with no wolves on them

[Cephrir]

if there's statistically a wolf in a group of 4 people (which your'e conceding), i think that's easier than finding 2 in a pool of 8

Okay, so it is an arbitrary distinction.

i'm not saying there's 2+ i'm saying i'm thinking htere's at least 1

(also fwiw arguing that there isn't when you're on it is +w to me)

I am explicitly not arguing this, as you already noted in this post. I'm trying to understand your thought process.

pedit b/c in the four billion games of mafia i've played, i've seen a lot more day1 wagons with wolves on them than day1 wagons with no wolves on them

Again, that's math, not scumhunting

[skitter30]

The middle paragraph was directed to sheep, not you

And for the other two: i don't think it's arbitrary, it's easier for me to find 1 scum in 4 than 2 in 8 so that's what i'm focusing on

Actually 2 in 6 i think technically but either way i think a smaller pool is better to focus on

If you don't like my approach fine but this is what's working for me