“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe
and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him
only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed
i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)
instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?
like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol
Fire you are objectively a good player as scum and as town and therefore when the circumstantial evidence points heavily to you being scum it’s precisely why I have been making such a point of trying to ensure your lim
If you’re town I’m sorry but there are good reasons to think you’re scum and I’m about 1000x more worried about you getting to an elo you like and talking round the final town than I am about dunn doing the same
Which is not a diss on dunn who literally just won an elo with umlaut but is a testament to you being very good
I know this was kind of a facetious comment from you/jokey or whatever but still
I do need to reread yesterday like, in order instead of some iso and reading bits around VCs but it just looks real bad in the context of your slot throughout the game
Fire you are objectively a good player as scum and as town and therefore when the circumstantial evidence points heavily to you being scum it’s precisely why I have been making such a point of trying to ensure your lim
If you’re town I’m sorry but there are good reasons to think you’re scum and I’m about 1000x more worried about you getting to an elo you like and talking round the final town than I am about dunn doing the same
Which is not a diss on dunn who literally just won an elo with umlaut but is a testament to you being very good
I know this was kind of a facetious comment from you/jokey or whatever but still
I do need to reread yesterday like, in order instead of some iso and reading bits around VCs but it just looks real bad in the context of your slot throughout the game
In post 2402, fireisredsir wrote:
i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe
and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him
only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed
i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)
instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?
like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol
but still
I might find this more convincing if I hadn’t just played TM against ali who is also a good scum player but e who made a significant part of er argument about not being scum around the idea of “why would I do this terrible play if I were scum” and then e flipped scum lol
Again, I should have time to do a full read through of what I missed during this day phase but there’s just so many factors that could have changed in scum PT for you to shift trajectory there that I’m not persuaded at all
In post 2363, Menalque wrote:
Aisa is definitely town, aureal is v likely town by virtue of being the CW, it’s possible ydra is scum who bussed but more likely is that both scum were defending sheep I think
Which makes it fire + (ceph/dunn)
The fact that ceph is trying to angle for a lim on aureal here instead of limming on the CW to sheep makes me think it’s more likely him vs dunn but I need to read them both in ISO to check that
Also while I think fire is the absolute right play for today we shouldn’t rush day
You need a way better reason to clear aureal
Do I? Cause I really think “was on scum wagon while flipped scum was on her wagon” is a pretty strong argument for not killing her
When the scum wagon was pretty heavily town driven, unless you want to argue that both aureal and ydrasse are scum in which case go ahead but it’d better be incredibly compelling
yeah that's not compelling at all sometimes scum lose control of a day and what are they gonna do when that happens, not crossvote and just claim scum?
In post 2394, Aisa wrote:
I too think Aureal looks a bit townier in light of the flip. Two reasons for this:
1. I don't think her behaviour towards sheep looked especially partnered,
2. Just knowing that sheep was mafia kinda snaps me out of the trance of "Aureal might be scum!!1" and, I think, takes power out of the case on Aureal.
It's heartening to see that Ceph's newest posts also have a sense of this
In post 2355, Cephrir wrote:
2. Because aureal's meltdown makes even more sense if her partner is getting run up too
I still wanna ask why you think / thought this
it feels kind of self explanatory... she'd have no positive way out of the situation, be actively losing the game and feeling helpless about it, and maybe even want to make some bad posts in order to die if she thought sheep had more longevity
also it wasn't facetious at all i genuinely feel pretty bad about my play this game (i guess assuming aureal is town? if she isn't then i feel less bad)
i am very glad that implo and aisa held strong and found the lim on sheep either way
Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.
I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above
In post 954, Aisa wrote:
I think one thing I’m curious about,
@implosion
, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?
this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more
In post 957, Aisa wrote:
Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there
this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions
I find this compelling.
In post 1184, Cephrir wrote:
here i'll just make a list off the top of my head. maybe i should iso myself later to remember what my opinions are, ive honestly just been waiting for your slot to die
{menalque, mega (where are you tho?)}
{dunnstral, sheep (i think? i forget), implosion}
{egix, aureal}
{skitter, aisa}
{fire}
i am so checked out of this game that i started isoing the enchant slot to remember what my read on it is. wow
In post 1745, Aisa wrote:
Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3
Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?
I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}
but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}
and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with
I'll need to mull on Egix.
Why is Menalque in your PoE? I think that he can be scum here but I think it's pretty rare.
If you have convincing reasons on Aureal and Egix then I'm definitely interested in hearing them. Is Egix based primarily on CSF?
Unrelatedly, there's a part of sheep's posting right now that kind of just makes me want to lim him today. 1761/1762 just feel very... exactly-the-thing-scum-has-to-post-here to me. Like it's just the only place he can naturally go now that Aisa is off the table. It feels kinda trite.
Yeah I’m not really sure why Mena is in the PoE either. I think his posting when he was talking to fire was probably a bit town indicative, but I probably wasn’t completely sold when I made the list and I haven’t re-evaluated since.
For Aureal I still stand by the reasoning here:
Spoiler:
In post 1544, Aisa wrote:
Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.
I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.
If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.
P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.
Egix we’ll see if I feel inspired later today (lol @
convincing
reasons) but yes it is mostly based on CSF
Not only are you using one game's worth of meta to townbin aureal, but you also don't even have a scum game to see if she can replicate the things you're looking at. That doesn't seem as strong as implosion is characterizing it below this, which I find strange in its own right
One game of meta seems a lot weaker than trying to read her based on this game and her actual actions here
Then you talk to me again here and I'm not sure if this is the way you would talk to a townread or a scumread
Spoiler:
In post 1836, Cephrir wrote:
Aisa
Mena
Implosion
Dunn
Egix/sheep/fire
Aureal
And the next time you mention me I am at the top of your readslist
don't remember, will try to sort it out later i have a meeting rn
I was gonna say something about it being interesting that the last scum did not claim a role which would have denied us the information of there only being 2 mafia. BUT looking at the setup again, the only roles they could have claimed to do that were Cop or Vig, neither of which is obviously a viable fakeclaim at this point lol
Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.
I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above
In post 954, Aisa wrote:
I think one thing I’m curious about,
@implosion
, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?
this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more
In post 957, Aisa wrote:
Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there
this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions
I find this compelling.
In post 1184, Cephrir wrote:
here i'll just make a list off the top of my head. maybe i should iso myself later to remember what my opinions are, ive honestly just been waiting for your slot to die
{menalque, mega (where are you tho?)}
{dunnstral, sheep (i think? i forget), implosion}
{egix, aureal}
{skitter, aisa}
{fire}
i am so checked out of this game that i started isoing the enchant slot to remember what my read on it is. wow
In post 1745, Aisa wrote:
Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3
Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?
I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}
but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}
and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with
I'll need to mull on Egix.
Why is Menalque in your PoE? I think that he can be scum here but I think it's pretty rare.
If you have convincing reasons on Aureal and Egix then I'm definitely interested in hearing them. Is Egix based primarily on CSF?
Unrelatedly, there's a part of sheep's posting right now that kind of just makes me want to lim him today. 1761/1762 just feel very... exactly-the-thing-scum-has-to-post-here to me. Like it's just the only place he can naturally go now that Aisa is off the table. It feels kinda trite.
Yeah I’m not really sure why Mena is in the PoE either. I think his posting when he was talking to fire was probably a bit town indicative, but I probably wasn’t completely sold when I made the list and I haven’t re-evaluated since.
For Aureal I still stand by the reasoning here:
Spoiler:
In post 1544, Aisa wrote:
Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.
I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.
If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.
P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.
Egix we’ll see if I feel inspired later today (lol @
convincing
reasons) but yes it is mostly based on CSF
Not only are you using one game's worth of meta to townbin aureal, but you also don't even have a scum game to see if she can replicate the things you're looking at. That doesn't seem as strong as implosion is characterizing it below this, which I find strange in its own right
One game of meta seems a lot weaker than trying to read her based on this game and her actual actions here
Then you talk to me again here and I'm not sure if this is the way you would talk to a townread or a scumread
Spoiler:
In post 1836, Cephrir wrote:
Aisa
Mena
Implosion
Dunn
Egix/sheep/fire
Aureal
And the next time you mention me I am at the top of your readslist
don't remember, will try to sort it out later i have a meeting rn
honestly i really wish i had understood the setup better that there could be only 2 scum bc i think a lot of my assumptions early one were kinda faulty if there wasn't necessarily 3 scum (like believing the game was hard and there had to be scum in the people driving the game)
In post 2402, fireisredsir wrote:
i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe
and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him
only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed
i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)
instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?
like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol
but still
I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow
In post 2420, fireisredsir wrote:
honestly i really wish i had understood the setup better that there could be only 2 scum bc i think a lot of my assumptions early one were kinda faulty if there wasn't necessarily 3 scum (like believing the game was hard and there had to be scum in the people driving the game)
im blaming my bad play on that
Yeah if you're town I can see that being pretty painful
In post 2394, Aisa wrote:
I too think Aureal looks a bit townier in light of the flip. Two reasons for this:
1. I don't think her behaviour towards sheep looked especially partnered,
2. Just knowing that sheep was mafia kinda snaps me out of the trance of "Aureal might be scum!!1" and, I think, takes power out of the case on Aureal.
It's heartening to see that Ceph's newest posts also have a sense of this
In post 2355, Cephrir wrote:
2. Because aureal's meltdown makes even more sense if her partner is getting run up too
I still wanna ask why you think / thought this
it feels kind of self explanatory... she'd have no positive way out of the situation, be actively losing the game and feeling helpless about it, and maybe even want to make some bad posts in order to die if she thought sheep had more longevity
this may be me holding onto hope that im not completely bad but this does make some sense to me
implosion was asking about why scum aureal would ever do that, and i think a world where the plan was for sheep to endgame and aureal to die, only for things to start to tilt towards sheep, is definitely a possibility
if there's one thing that y'all listen to after i flip (it sure shouldn't be my reads lol) its that please PLEASE do not clear anyone as unaligned off day 3 play because i think scum's main goal there would be to appear unaligned. even knowing there was only 2. maybe especially knowing there was only 2
I don't think the last mafia is fire. Their analysis yesterday and the argument they are making today has convinced me. I am also leaning towards it not being Ceph but need to think about that more. I think that means the last mafia bussed, and I think that means it is Aureal as I don't see the rest bussing. These are preliminary thoughts. We have new information today - I can't be mafia with Fire like some people were saying.
