Open 879: Fire and More Fire [game over]

[Umlaut]

yeet

Black [8]:

Firebringer,

Meuh

, Radical Rat, Doctor Drew, Bingle, Merlyn, Ausuka, Donempire

[HAMMER]

Bingle [2]:

The Bulge

, osuka

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

Firebringer [1]:

Black

Merlyn [1]:

Invisibility

sheepsaysmeep [1]:

Umlaut

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

I would be quite surprised to learn there was only one scum on Black.

Does anyone disagree with this and think it's likely there was only one scum on Black? Because that's... kind of important for where we choose to vote today.

[Bingle]

Meuh being on black and Skygazer not is largely irrelevant so if you're being genuine with that you might as well color them green.

I don't think scum was likely to care if they were on black or not, given the lack of any real danger for them or their partner at EoD. The only person who was significantly likely to be killed was me, and, well...

[Bingle]

Actually, looking at that wagon, do you think both otherscum were on Black?

[Doctor Drew]

yeet

Black [8]:

Firebringer,

Meuh

, Radical Rat, Doctor Drew, Bingle, Merlyn, Ausuka, Donempire

[HAMMER]

Bingle [2]:

The Bulge

, osuka

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

Firebringer [1]:

Black

Merlyn [1]:

Invisibility

sheepsaysmeep [1]:

Umlaut

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

I would be quite surprised to learn there was only one scum on Black.

Does anyone disagree with this and think it's likely there was only one scum on Black? Because that's... kind of important for where we choose to vote today.

I mean most people have scum reads on at least one other person who voted for Black, so ya there definitely is a chance. But this kinda sounds like a hollow question, who would you say is scum on the wagon? And off the wagon if you don't think there are two scum on there?

Pre Edit: Bingle, you don't remember the eod flash wagon attempt on me?

[Bingle]

I don't remember taking it seriously as a thing that would actually go through tbh. I expected to be the lim yesterday due to inertia though, and didn't expect the Black wagon to go through either.

[Umlaut]

I mean most people have scum reads on at least one other person who voted for Black, so ya there definitely is a chance. But this kinda sounds like a hollow question, who would you say is scum on the wagon? And off the wagon if you don't think there are two scum on there?

I've already said that I think scum on the wagon is between you, Bingle, Firebringer, and Merlyn. Out of those I want to vote out Bingle first because even if it's wrong it'll help us make better sense of Day 1 events.

I don't have an opinion one way or the other about whether both remaining scum were on the wagon. There's no reason they couldn't be, but if I magically knew there was scum off the wagon I'd go back to voting Sheep today.

[Doctor Drew]

I mean most people have scum reads on at least one other person who voted for Black, so ya there definitely is a chance. But this kinda sounds like a hollow question, who would you say is scum on the wagon? And off the wagon if you don't think there are two scum on there?

I've already said that I think scum on the wagon is between you, Bingle, Firebringer, and Merlyn. Out of those I want to vote out Bingle first because even if it's wrong it'll help us make better sense of Day 1 events.

I don't have an opinion one way or the other about whether both remaining scum were on the wagon. There's no reason they couldn't be, but if I magically knew there was scum off the wagon I'd go back to voting Sheep today.

Ok fair, I do remember you saying about who you want todays lim pool to be, my bad for glossing over it.

Does come off a bit as you know Bingle will be flipping town though.

[Bingle]

I think he's being pushed pretty hard here, I'd have a hard time being nice under this kind of borderline attacking the player and not the play that's happening.

It's not really borderline, FWIW. I also don't really care if osuka wants to call me an idiot.

[Umlaut]

Spoiler: I colored in every vote count from yesterday but didn't get anything out of it but here they are anyway

yeet

towwl [3]:

Cook, osuka, Ausuka

Firebringer [2]:

Invisibility, Umlaut

Merlyn [2]:

Radical Rat,

Meuh

Cook [2]:

The Bulge

, Bingle

Meuh

[1]:

Merlyn

osuka [1]:

towwl

not voting [4]:

Skygazer

,

Black

, Bellaphant, Firebringer

yeet

Cook [5]:

The Bulge

, Bingle, Bellaphant, Cook, Radical Rat

towwl [3]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, Invisibility

Firebringer [2]:

Umlaut, osuka

Merlyn [1]:

Meuh

Ausuka [1]:

towwl

Invisibility [1]:

Merlyn

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

,

Black

yeet

Cook [4]:

The Bulge

, Bingle, Bellaphant, Radical Rat

Firebringer [2]:

Black

, Invisibility

Merlyn [2]:

Meuh

, Umlaut

towwl [2]:

Firebringer, osuka

Ausuka [1]:

towwl

Invisibility [1]:

Merlyn

Skygazer

[1]:

Ausuka

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Cook [3]:

The Bulge

, Bellaphant, Radical Rat

Doctor Drew [3]:

Firebringer, Invisibility, Umlaut

Ausuka [2]:

Doctor Drew, Bingle

Firebringer [1]:

Black

Invisibility [1]:

Merlyn

Skygazer

[1]:

Ausuka

osuka [1]:

Meuh

not voting [3]:

Skygazer

, Cook, osuka

yeet

Doctor Drew [5]:

Umlaut, Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn,

Black

Bingle [3]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, Invisibility

Cook [2]:

The Bulge

, Bellaphant

Invisibility [1]:

Doctor Drew

Ausuka [1]:

Bingle

Merlyn [1]:

Meuh

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [5]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, Invisibility,

The Bulge

,

Black

Doctor Drew [4]:

Umlaut, Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Invisibility [1]:

Doctor Drew

Ausuka [1]:

Bingle

Merlyn [1]:

Meuh

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [5]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, Invisibility,

The Bulge

,

Black

Doctor Drew [3]:

Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Ausuka [2]:

Bingle, Umlaut

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Invisibility [1]:

Doctor Drew

Merlyn [1]:

Meuh

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [4]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, Invisibility,

The Bulge

Ausuka [4]:

Bingle, Umlaut, Black, Doctor Drew

Doctor Drew [3]:

Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Merlyn [1]:

Meuh

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Ausuka [3]:

Umlaut,

Black

, Doctor Drew

Bingle [3]:

Ausuka, Firebringer,

The Bulge

Doctor Drew [3]:

Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Black

[2]:

Invisibility,

Meuh

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [4]:

Ausuka, Firebringer,

The Bulge

, Invisibility

Ausuka [3]:

Umlaut,

Black

, Doctor Drew

Doctor Drew [3]:

Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Black

[1]:

Meuh

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [4]:

Ausuka, Firebringer,

The Bulge

, Invisibility

Ausuka [3]:

Umlaut,

Black

, Doctor Drew

Doctor Drew [3]:

Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Black

[1]:

Meuh

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [4]:

Ausuka, Firebringer,

The Bulge

, Invisibility

Ausuka [3]:

Umlaut,

Black

, Doctor Drew

Doctor Drew [2]:

osuka, Merlyn

Cook [2]:

Bellaphant, Radical Rat

Black

[1]:

Meuh

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [5]:

Ausuka, Firebringer,

The Bulge

, Invisibility, osuka

sheepsaysmeep [3]:

Bellaphant, Radical Rat, Umlaut

Ausuka [2]:

Black

, Doctor Drew

Black

[1]:

Meuh

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

Bellaphant [1]:

Merlyn

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

yeet

Bingle [5]:

Ausuka, Firebringer,

The Bulge

, Invisibility, osuka

sheepsaysmeep [3]:

Donempire, Radical Rat, Umlaut

Ausuka [2]:

Black

, Doctor Drew

Black

[1]:

Meuh

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

Donempire [1]:

Merlyn

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

yeet

Bingle [3]:

Firebringer,

The Bulge

, osuka

sheepsaysmeep [3]:

Donempire, Radical Rat, Umlaut

Ausuka [2]:

Black

, Doctor Drew

Merlyn [2]:

Invisibility,

Meuh

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

Donempire [1]:

Merlyn

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

Skygazer

[1]:

Ausuka

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

yeet

Bingle [3]:

Firebringer,

The Bulge

, osuka

sheepsaysmeep [3]:

Donempire, Radical Rat, Umlaut

Merlyn [2]:

Invisibility,

Meuh

Meuh

[2]:

Bingle,

Black

Ausuka [1]:

Doctor Drew

Donempire [1]:

Merlyn

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

Skygazer

[1]:

Ausuka

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

yeet

Bingle [4]:

Firebringer,

The Bulge

, osuka,

Meuh

sheepsaysmeep [2]:

Radical Rat, Umlaut

Firebringer [2]:

Donempire,

Black

Skygazer

[2]:

Ausuka, sheepsaysmeep

Merlyn [1]:

Invisibility

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

Ausuka [1]:

Doctor Drew

Donempire [1]:

Merlyn

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

[Bingle]

Again, treating the flipped scum as conftown for VCA is probably a better model.

I feel like that might be a bit more telling when we have more flips, but I don't think the traditional methods of VCA will be as applicable in this game regardless. Scum won't be as worried about associations with each other because if one of them flips both of them flip.

[Bingle]

What do you think of osuka, Umlaut?

[Bingle]

Pre Edit: Bingle, you don't remember the eod flash wagon attempt on me?

Actually, coming back to this: If the premise of this question is "I was a viable lim at EoD" then what are your thoughts on wagon composition?

[Doctor Drew]

Pre Edit: Bingle, you don't remember the eod flash wagon attempt on me?

Actually, coming back to this: If the premise of this question is "I was a viable lim at EoD" then what are your thoughts on wagon composition?

Let me go back and check who was voting me.

[Umlaut]

What do you think of osuka, Umlaut?

I haven't done any sort of deep dive on him to form a solid opinion, which I probably should now that I think of it. My surface impression is that I would not blink if he flipped scum but I'm worried that my general dislike of his style is coloring my opinion.

[Bingle]

Bingle [3]: Firebringer, The Bulge, osuka,
sheepsaysmeep [2]: Umlaut
Firebringer [2]: Donempire, Black
Skygazer [2]:
Merlyn [1]: Invisibility
Meuh [1]: Bingle
Ausuka [1]: Doctor Drew
Donempire [1]: Merlyn
Drew: Sheep, Ausuka, Meuh, Rat, Umlaut

not voting [1]: Skygazer

Oh, hm. This is the endpoint for the Drew wagon when it was biggest, just before FB swung momentum back to black.

[Radical Rat]

If I were to guess, I'd say both scum pairs probably would have gone one on/one off, but I don't want to be building cases off of that assumption

[Doctor Drew]

Or Drew, but I don't think there's enough interest there at this point.

VOTE: Black

Rat wants to vote me, but doesn't think it will go through, votes black. We will get back to this.

VOTE: drew I would do this lol

VOTE: drew

I STAND WITH SHEEP

Ausuka was just waiting for a chance to vote me lol

Alright, I'll call the bluff.

VOTE: Drew

If sheep tries to weasel out of it, we all immediately wagon him, yeah?

I actually find some partner equity here, maybe it is a bit tinfoily, but almost like Sheep and Rat manufactured this. Especially Rat talking about Sheep 'weaseling out of it', like he knew he wouldn't and was just for show.

FYI I'm no more certain Bingle is town than Drew so if the counterwagon goes that way I'm probably just giving up and voting Bingle.

Sure, as long as we actually do it. I overall like this wagon better anyway.

VOTE: Drew
Drew, if you flip green I'll owe you a glass of Lagavulin.

You will still owe me this

VOTE: Black
Well lets see if we can get this going at least

Then FB starts the counter wagon that everyone, including me, jumped on.

I do feel that Sheep and Rat are town on this wagon, I don't really feel they are partnered.....just reading this series of posts again made me wonder and wanted to just push my thoughts out as they came to me. And this is really more about Sheep then rat, I think Sheep is town.

You should know how I feel about Ausuka, she wasn't gonna make the case.....but sure as hell would jump to the chance of voting me.

Umlaut is the tricky one, seems to be open to voting Bingle or me......but doesn't jump on me(much like Ausuka) until a bit of momentum happens. Coupled with how I feel they seem kinda said they know Bingle will flip town, I might be talking myself into them as scum.

[Doctor Drew]

Bingle [3]: Firebringer, The Bulge, osuka,
sheepsaysmeep [2]: Umlaut
Firebringer [2]: Donempire, Black
Skygazer [2]:
Merlyn [1]: Invisibility
Meuh [1]: Bingle
Ausuka [1]: Doctor Drew
Donempire [1]: Merlyn
Drew: Sheep, Ausuka, Meuh, Rat, Umlaut

not voting [1]: Skygazer

Oh, hm. This is the endpoint for the Drew wagon when it was biggest, just before FB swung momentum back to black.

Umm, that was before my wagon happened.

[Radical Rat]

osuka/Bingle is TvT though. You're both just talking past each other and it's not getting us anywhere.

[Bingle]

Why is osuka town, rat?

[Bingle]

Umm, that was before my wagon happened.

I moved the votes, look at the bottom of the quoted vc.

[Doctor Drew]

Umm, that was before my wagon happened.

I moved the votes, look at the bottom of the quoted vc.

Not very user friendly lol, but I see now what you were doing.

[Radical Rat]

I believe I talked before about their early recklessness not likely to come from scum in this setup, and then they dumbtelled forgetting the setup by questioning why I would wait for two scum to flip, which... osuka strikes me as being too egotistical to fake a mistake like that, and obviously would be more conscious of it as scum.

[Bingle]

Hm. Do you think his arguments that I think any of the pushes against me are 'good' are in good faith?

[Radical Rat]

In good faith? No. Coming from scum? Also no. I think he's in a really silly tunnel and is twisting things to fit his bias.