In post 548, Roden wrote:
Pretty sure Appearance is just waiting to die but doesn't want to prod dodge.
i mean like if it ends up benefiting town, you could say that.
tho i feel like when i actually flip vt, people should really try reaccessing and looking at the votelog.
my play this game definitely has been my worst and i'm sorry.
tho i'll probably post my final readslist soon.
In post 548, Roden wrote:
Pretty sure Appearance is just waiting to die but doesn't want to prod dodge.
Yeah it kinda feels like it, and that's why i don't want to go for him yet. Kinda makes me feel bad to keep him around like this since he probably doesn't want to rep out either, but i really feel that the best course of action is to hunt for scum instead. With an SK flip on him we won't get any info from wagon analysis. Best we can do is weed out overly enthusiastic voters as mafia would like to off sk asap, but not much more. In a vt flip it's a similar scenario as mafia don't know for sure that he's the sk anyway, meaning even harder wagon analysis. I don't know, just don't feel too good about an appearance elim at least today.
Age of Empires Elo: 1500 something in DE, 1800 in HD
Formerly Dongempire
In post 554, Roden wrote:
Who do you think has been overly enthusiastic?
I'm not sure. If i had to say someone it would be merlyn, as she parked her vote there and hasn't had any other significant scumreads, but even that's a stretch. And having to stretch like that is why i don't want an appearance lim. He's someone that's universally scumread and that's a bad thing when you want to plan ahead, in regards to wagon analysis.
In post 555, Roden wrote:
I understand your top scum read is Fire but I'm not sure he reads as overly enthusiastic in killing Appearance to me.
I think you misunderstood my post, i was talking about the scenario where we lim appearance being suboptimal as we couldn't do wagon analysis effectively- re what i said about him being universally scumread. All we could do then would be to analyse overly enthusiastic wagoners, which would not be very informative. My read on fire doesn't come from his place in the appearance wagon.
Age of Empires Elo: 1500 something in DE, 1800 in HD
Formerly Dongempire
I guess I'm just not too worried about wagon analysis because we still have the NK and potential Cop check to go over tomorrow as well. I know that flipping a mafia slot is the optimal thing to do here, I've been thinking the same thing, but successfully flipping a scummy slot on Day 1 is just good for us no matter what.
And who knows, maybe Appearance actually is mafia and got bussed. I don't want to discount that possibility.
I think i should be getting props for somehow being both lackluster and overly enthusiastic.
I'm okay with not having any other strong scumreads in D1 yet, I'm not sure I'd believe anyone who had several strong scumreads so far with this few pages and so many folks on the radar for little scummish things. I think things will be clearer the next day should I make it.
I always feel like if you feel reasonably confident that you've found wolf, you should yeet them, but if that's wrong I'm willing to hear about it. Is it common that this type of plan leads to success or does town generally screw itself over?
idk how to find sk but i think they could easily be in the top half of my reads since they are uninformed so it's not very hard for them to fake looking towny i would think?
i think don's theory of appearance being sk is kinda dumb bc part of the issue w him (at least my issue) is lack of genuine looking scum hunting which shouldn't be difficult for sk to fake since it wouldn't even be fake
and i don't really like don's overconfidence in it, it feels kinda like he just decided a narrative to push bc then he doesn't have to fake any nuance or solving thought
In post 558, Merlyn wrote:
I think i should be getting props for somehow being both lackluster and overly enthusiastic.
I'm okay with not having any other strong scumreads in D1 yet, I'm not sure I'd believe anyone who had several strong scumreads so far with this few pages and so many folks on the radar for little scummish things. I think things will be clearer the next day should I make it.
I always feel like if you feel reasonably confident that you've found wolf, you should yeet them, but if that's wrong I'm willing to hear about it. Is it common that this type of plan leads to success or does town generally screw itself over?
Yeah and that's why i said this was a stretch, because i don't think you pushed him very hard, just you not having many other reads could lead to that kind of assumption.
Of course it's not without risk, and if i wasn't this confident i probably would just be pushing for an appearance lim just to have the highest chance of hitting scum. As it stands i think it's a bad lim both mech wise and for wagon analysis. The setup is inherently stacked against us and i believe we have to play somewhat assbackwards to alleviate this handicap. Regardless since we'll have to lim scum at some point i see no reason to not start today, and if it turns out that we messed up we can just go back to appearance to have a relatively confident lim.
Age of Empires Elo: 1500 something in DE, 1800 in HD
Formerly Dongempire
In post 560, fireisredsir wrote:
idk how to find sk but i think they could easily be in the top half of my reads since they are uninformed so it's not very hard for them to fake looking towny i would think?
i think don's theory of appearance being sk is kinda dumb bc part of the issue w him (at least my issue) is lack of genuine looking scum hunting which shouldn't be difficult for sk to fake since it wouldn't even be fake
and i don't really like don's overconfidence in it, it feels kinda like he just decided a narrative to push bc then he doesn't have to fake any nuance or solving thought
that said appearance is kinda scummy regardless
Interesting. It's a very shallow disertation of what i've said so far. As for your point of contestion, Sk would not want to be overtly doing scumhunting because they wouldn't want to be targeted by scum.
Can you expand on your shea and merlyn reads?
Age of Empires Elo: 1500 something in DE, 1800 in HD
Formerly Dongempire
I was writing a post similar to fire's, that I think donempire is sort of wolfy for overusing "remember we prefer to kill mafia over serial killer today"; I think although I can see the point, it only makes sense as a legit reason to argue to avoid limming someone if your ability to pinpoint the SK is nearly perfect (not applicable)
but then I think like, I believe that donempire has some genuine belief that appearance is SK. because the notion that he's SK makes a ton of sense to me. scummy but feels unpartnered / more helpless / perhaps more preservationist etc
and I think TSQ had a point when he said that mafia would be very desperate/eager to kill the SK here. so I think maybe it's towny for donempire here. I cant really explain scum defending someone for being a certain type of scummy
i don't think appearance being an easy yeet is actually very indicative of him being not-mafia. he was getting heat practically right out of the gate, i'd expect his partner to be ready to bus. also, considering it's taking us this long to actually kill him, i'd argue he's the opposite of an easy yeet...
In post 562, Donempire wrote:
As for your point of contestion, Sk would not want to be overtly doing scumhunting because they wouldn't want to be targeted by scum.
mafia can't shoot until n2, though. on day 1, it's probably more important for the SK to not get copped n1 rather than planning about the scum kill on n2
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
based on the most recent votecount (and my assumption that fire won't vote themselves) 2 people need to be convinced on fire being a better kill than appearance. stuff i've seen so far hasn't really convinced me at all. giving this like... 12 hours for appearance's last readslist and for whowever wants to make cases against fire.
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
In post 566, Datisi wrote:
i don't think appearance being an easy yeet is actually very indicative of him being not-mafia. he was getting heat practically right out of the gate, i'd expect his partner to be ready to bus. also, considering it's taking us this long to actually kill him, i'd argue he's the opposite of an easy yeet...
It's taken us long to off him because there's still 4 more days left on the clock. Pretty much everyone reached a consensus on him, and the rest of the day we've been scumhunting for other scum, plus his wagon had a minimum of 3 people since page 5 or something. So yeah, unless you consider me his partner he was a very very easy lim as i could have just yolo'd him at any point.
In post 562, Donempire wrote:
As for your point of contestion, Sk would not want to be overtly doing scumhunting because they wouldn't want to be targeted by scum.
mafia can't shoot until n2, though. on day 1, it's probably more important for the SK to not get copped n1 rather than planning about the scum kill on n2
And if he chose invest immunity? Which i think is the only reasonable choice, as if he does survive a scum attack his fate is sealed as the lim of the morning. And if he drastically underperforms d2 compared to d1 to avoid scum attention then that's gonna get picked up by the town as well.
Age of Empires Elo: 1500 something in DE, 1800 in HD
Formerly Dongempire
i don't really care if the "consensus" was reached on him early or not. a bunch of people are going "i wanna vote someone else" and that is resistance. note, this isn't me saying he has to be not-mafia because he's easy to yeet or that there's a partner in the resistance. i don't make these guesses without flips.
if i were SK i'd choose bulletproof, and i'm guessing a decent number of people would have too... but unsure if any of this matters right now. convince me fire is mafia. or don't, i guess.
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
based on the most recent votecount (and my assumption that fire won't vote themselves) 2 people need to be convinced on fire being a better kill than appearance. stuff i've seen so far hasn't really convinced me at all. giving this like... 12 hours for appearance's last readslist and for whowever wants to make cases against fire.
sorry for taking so long on the readslist. i was offsite most of yesterday but i promise i'll post one now.
I think it's quirky that Fire jumped in to defend Datisi super-hard, it looked more like someone looking to curry favour on what was being universally called a bad read for credit, and didnt read as genuine.
Why would Town!Fire jump in to defend Datisi? Meh I dont think they're town
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