Open 879: Fire and More Fire [game over]

[Ausuka]

I think osuka sheeping donempire is +scum because I think donempire is pretty likely to lead town down the entirely wrong track and i don't think osuka is the type of player i expect to naturally sheep often

I think sheep continues to be towny

The point about merlyn is one i kind of agree with, although i was thinking about it more in the lens of what other people are doing to save merlyn; it's possible it's just umlaut doing a big brain gambit, or merlyn is scum with sheep, or like it could just be someone else like RR etc etc but it's at least worth taking into account

I guess i will probably iso osuka? Idk if i want to vote drew but i'm open to listening to arguments why i should

[Donempire]

Don, why do you think Ausuka is scum? I skimmed your ISO but couldn't find the main reason. I've been tr'ing all game

First reason is her voting black after townreading or townleaning her the entire game. You might say i also voted, but i also protested until the hammer was inevitable, whereas ausuka just came in and voted a slot she never suspected. I'm leaving her thought process in the spoilers below, and you can see for yourself

Spoiler:

I believe in townbringer

Black's votes are scummy but then scum are probably less likely than town to do something scummy like that so I am going to townread black instead

I will sort the playerlist into three tiers and then alphabetise them.

{Doctor Drew, Firebringer, Merlyn, Meuh, osuka, sheepsaysmeep}
{Black, Bulge, Invisibility, Radical Rat}
{Bellaphant, Bingle, Skygazer, Umlaut}

I think black's push on meuh is ??? but I don't see it as scummy

Black it is i guess

VOTE: Black

Another thing is her stance on meuh, which is actually harder to show with quote posts since she barely engaged with meuh, but was solidly townreading her throughout. This to me feels like she was planning a meuh kill from the start due to her townreading her, but didn't want to engage too closely so as to not be associated with her kill when it happened.

I also think most of her mech discussion is wrong, though is that a scum tell or just differing opinions i can't be certain. All i know is that i don't like it.

[Donempire]

I coded in my mind that i had a bingle post to respond to so i'll find that

[Ausuka]

We had like three hours left genuinely what do you want me to do

[Donempire]

I think i should expand on my drew townread since its not a popular one. He was one of the few slots pressuring meuh during the end of the day, and i couldn't see a post wherein he townread sky, going off that i doubt he's the one to make a meuh kill.

He was also really essily pushed throughout the day, with pretty much everyone voicing their suspicions on him at some point. Some might say that him not being wagoned despite this is proof that there was resistance, to which i would say that his wagon was just as possible as a black wagon, and in fact without fb i would wager drew would have been the lim yesterday. That tells me that he's solo in his endeavour.

I also liked his black vote compared to other votes since he did so simply so there would be a lim like i did. Also not to claim i'm a meta expert on him but this doesn't feel like scum drew to me.

I think I'm missing something. Could you explain why you think those points make him town?

I assume you're asking about my third point since the first two should be self evident, theres not much more i can say besides what i said in my post you quoted

I agree that it's not as strong a point as the other two since scum!drew could be refraining from voting as to not kill scum, but i don't think that's whats happening here. But it's kind of a weak reasoning and i understand that. My first two points are why i'm confident in this read.

[Ausuka]

I tried to eliminate skygazer who was aligned with the mafia - which I think if I was mafia I would have also been aware that was likely and *would not* have pushed skygazer - and everyone was like 'lol no fuck off ausuka'

I never scumread black and i never expected her to flip scum. I also do not want to no eliminate on day 1.

[Donempire]

We had like three hours left genuinely what do you want me to do

Black's wagon was also a flash wagon, so i would assume a town townreading black would have tried to get a counterwagon going, else abstain from voting. Again i exclude myself because i had already tried before voting.

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Skygazer

i'm shooting for the stars

VOTE: drew

I STAND WITH SHEEP

???

[Donempire]

I tried to eliminate skygazer who was aligned with the mafia - which I think if I was mafia I would have also been aware that was likely and *would not* have pushed skygazer - and everyone was like 'lol no fuck off ausuka'

I never scumread black and i never expected her to flip scum. I also do not want to no eliminate on day 1.

But you also had no knowledge that sky was town which is the crucial point. We're taking your word for it that you assumed sky was scum now that she flipped, and wasn't just trying to push what you assumed to be a miselim.

Second point, fair enough. Maybe i'm pressing on the wrong point

[Ausuka]

You don't need to take my word for it, you can look at her iso and ask yourself why anyone would think that was town

[Donempire]

I'm still taking your word for it. You do see how pointless this line of inquiry is.

VOTE: Skygazer

i'm shooting for the stars

VOTE: drew

I STAND WITH SHEEP

???

Bingle had a 2 vote wagon, and rr and meuh had expressed their interest in switching to that wagon, as well me and black would have switched to that wagon to prevent a black lim. Unless you assume drew is town now, which would be a big change for you now, why did you not stand your ground on drew?

[Ausuka]

Why didn't you? There was only a 20 minute difference between our votes

[Datisi]

vote count 2.07

with 11 votes in play, it takes 6 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2023-07-08 15:30:00).

yeet

Merlyn [3]:

Firebringer, Doctor Drew, Invisibility

Doctor Drew [3]:

Radical Rat, Bingle, sheepsaysmeep

Ausuka [2]:

Donempire

, osuka

Firebringer [1]:

Merlyn

not voting [2]:

Ausuka, Umlaut

mod notes

this is a mod note.

flavour

[Ausuka]

And i don't really think drew is scum tbh. I mean I probably would have taken drew over black at the time so it doesn't matter that much for this specifically.

I think osuka and invisibility are good eliminations for today - I don't really want drew and I'm cooling on merlyn.

[Ausuka]

I did the osuka iso and it's like... Idk osuka is hard to read, but i think that while i stand by the idea his general style here is the same as in previous games, there is a bit of a hollowness to his reads I guess? It's not a super strong thing, but I feel like he makes sure to have One Big Tunnel - towel slot and then bingle for most of the game - and then the rest of his reads are like ???. Even with the bingle read, it's like... Even as scum I get the sense osuka believes *some* of what he's saying, but I think he's too happy to escalate the shitfight over weird things. Like, when bingle says he thinks his wagon is mostly town, osuka says something like "this is basically just a scumclaim, to say everyone on your wagon is town and has good reasons and we're all skipping in a field of daisies" and bingle is like "I think they have bad reasons" and osuka is then just like "well if they're town it's not bad reasons to them, can you even fucking read bingle jesus fucking christ" and it's just ??? and it kind of makes me feel like he's cranking up the aggro to 100 on purpose to make himself seem aggressive and possibly to satisfy the watchful eyes of doctor drew

I do also feel like, with town osuka, you probably have the same sense of aggressiveness and I don't expect to agree with everything he says but like... I kind expect townsuka to be more messy and like fight more with different people and whatever. This can partially be explained by osuka just not being that engaged compared to previous games but shrug I'm not totally confident in any read here. All the fire is aimed at bingle and then he just sheeps donempire for ??? reasons which obviously like, call it omgus and it kind of is omgus but whatever I don't care I don't like it. I think as scum here you are going to be in a very tough spot getting like, 5 consecutive miselims or whatever, and it would probably be a lot easier if you can get people to sheep donempire and lim 3 townies for wagonomics or something.

[Ausuka]

I'm also getting better feelings about umlaut recently? The jump on the merlyn wagon was pretty blatant in a way I feel like scum would ?maybe? be more cautious about, and the unvote feels sort of genuine? Not really townreading him at this point but shrug

[Firebringer]

VOTE: Osuka

[Firebringer]

my conspiracy theory in this game is that osuka/bingle is a team and they fought just to get everyone to think it was a dumb tvt

[Ausuka]

VOTE: osuka ok

Fwiw something that is like influencing my read on osuka is, like, usually part of what makes mafia such a difficult game is that scum can just act like their town selves by voting anything they would normally consider scum indicative. I do not think mafia can do that so easily in this game because they risk actually hitting scum which is kind of a catastrophic event. Stuff that seems forced and unnatural in a way I don't like is... honestly not something I consider a reliable scumtell most of the time, because sometimes townies do things I don't get, but I feel like in this specific game scum have incentives to make pushes they wouldn't believe as town and that changes the game a lot. Like if osuka just thought the wagon on bingle was really stupid and bingle was town, he could decide then to just tunnel bingle

[Ausuka]

I don't have as much on invis tbh I just think she's generally been pretty meh in her contributions so far, I do not really think she has done anything town indicative (I think invis would do the wagon hopping regardless of alignment) and I don't like his pushes either. Also the "I wasn't expecting meuh to flip scum" entrance kind of felt like an "oops sorry meuh that was kind of fucked up" post

Looking at the lead wagons, I'd rather lim Bingle than sheep. I guess. A Sheep lim would give so little info. But I hate lims that the best reason is 'we'll get a lot of info when you die!'

also don't like Merlyn seemingly setting herself up to vote

In the stead of a real post I will instead assign homework

Do people here like, read this, and believe it's a town thought process? Could you see yourself potentially coming to this conclusion, do you think there's a point here?

[Ausuka]

I will try to iso people at some point because i'm like not really sure about a lot of people in this game - I think drew and sheep will be the people I look at next. I looked at sheep in scarfolk council (scum sheep) and i did find some of his posts towny so I can't rule out that my read there is wrong - I do probably townread his style naturally - but i'm not sure it really felt the same either. Basically meta isn't going to help that much and I need to reread him

[Bingle]

I assume you're asking about my third point since the first two should be self evident, theres not much more i can say besides what i said in my post you quoted

I agree that it's not as strong a point as the other two since scum!drew could be refraining from voting as to not kill scum, but i don't think that's whats happening here. But it's kind of a weak reasoning and i understand that. My first two points are why i'm confident in this read.

Not exclusively. The first point is a point that applies much better to me. I spent all of yesterday actively campaigning for a meuh lim and meuh was not particularly interested in my own lim. I have already mentioned why I think this makes me obvious town, but you don't seem to agree. Drew, by contrast, had a little bit of interest at the end of the day and meuh wanted him dead more than she did me iirc. (Note, meuh provably wouldn't know either of Drew or my alignments.) I'm interested in any specific posts you might have seen that you think would make Drew less likely to shoot meuh than I would be.

I also think you're reading way too much into wagon reluctance given that this is a 2 person scumteam in 15 people, and wanted to know if you had more weight behind that than just the obvious, but my guess is just that we don't see eye to eye on how much influence scum would have/how much effort scum would put into wagon manipulation here.

[osuka]

im gonna be honest, i have been a bit disengaged the past few days but that's just because ive spent basically the last week getting shitfaced. happy holiday weekend i guess

youre right that sheeping is unlike me ausuka, but again to be completely transparent i was uhhhh not exactly myself last night. i would apologize, but i'm not actually sorry

[Bingle]

Similarly, Ausuka doesn't stand to benefit from killing townMeuh, because Meuh was defending Ausuka hard. Scum doesn't generally fancy shooting their own major supporters. Scumsuka wouldn't want to kill scumMeuh or townMeuh, so Scumsuka likely doesn't exist.

What do you think of this argument, Dong?

[osuka]

part of the reason i haven't really been pushing anyone is that i'm having a real hard time getting any decent reads on anyone. i sorta think doctor's town, i sorta think you're maybe town, i sorta think rat's weird, i sorta think bingle's weird. but i'm really not very confident on any of those and i can't really put together a push that would hold up to any sort of meaningful standard on any of them so really i'm kind of floating here

i'm also fending off impending death by hangover today