Spoiler: Umlaut? More like SCUMlaut, but for real this time
Spoiler: Umlaut/Invisibility
137 is a soft defense early on, and seems to be taking an RVS-adjacent vote too seriously.
And then there's absolutely nothing until over a thousand posts later when Invisibility drops a vote in 1293. I think this is a good unaligned vote though, because while there's no actual threat to Umlaut, there's also no real incentive to suddenly start distancing after ignoring each other so long. It feels just like a natural observation and push.
Invisibility questioning Umlaut's confidence that we win while being wagoned is interesting. Normally I'd say it's not an argument I expect from a buddy, BUT in this case it's in refutation to Umlaut being kinda-sorta okay with dying, which obviously one of them would have to push back on, but also also Invisibility doesn't actually unvote until Don explains why Umlaut is right, so... I don't think that's what was happening, and I'm choosing to take this at face value.
And that's everything.
Final conclusion: Probably not. There's not really a lot to go off of, but if they are partnered, they're not very coordinated about it. Seems like genuine apathy on Umlaut's part, and Invisibility doesn't seem to have any insight on Umlaut's thinking.
Spoiler: Umlaut/Drew(and towwl)
Umlaut joins the early towwl wagon, despite this particular push being on a very shaky foundation. +5 unaligned points.
Nothing else happens with towwl, and then once Drew shows up they go into talking about alcohol. Umlaut does not unvote yet.
Umalut doesn't like Drew's Invisibility push, agrees with my post dissecting why it's bad, and then... unvotes. Curious.
Scotch/Whiskey Pocket is formalized soon after.
669, aside from being nice, is kinda weird. Why attach it to Umlaut's post? Vague shading, despite professing a strong townread already? I don't know if it's aligned, but it's weird.
End of the day though, Umlaut joins on Drew, and it has serious potential at this moment to actually go through, so that's a pretty strong indicator against alignment...
But then doesn't actually stay long enough for it to matter. Hm.
Drew gathering doubts D2 feels like preparing for a real push, but that push never actually materializes beyond a sharp drop in reads list position.
Umlaut starts lightly defending Drew a bit, and eventually they both converge onto osuka, who we know flipped Town, and that's all we've got.
Final conclusions: Possible, but not feeling it. There's definitely some weirdness happening here, but it could just as easily be Drew trying to pocket as it could be actual alignment. At some points I actually started suspecting a Drew/Bingle team, and I wasn't even looking for that. Interested in what comes up there if Merlyn and/or Umlaut turn in their work on time.
Spoiler: Umlaut/Ausuka
Ausuka seems to ignore Umlaut's question in 230. Wouldn't expect that from a buddy.
Umlaut votes on a Not Town Enough basis, Bingle and Drew are the main wagons at the time. Ausuka DOES respond to this, and Umlaut reaffirms the vote.
Umlaut encourages Drew after joining on Ausuka. Seems to be genuine will for the wagon going.
Umlaut stays on Ausuka until I make a move to start another Cook wagon.
Ausuka backs Merlyn's reads list which has her high and Umlaut low, then offers a PoE including Umlaut in it. Seems self-serving, trying to attach to Merlyn.
Umlaut pushes back pretty hard against Ausuka going for Skygazer. I don't think it looks theatrical.
Ausuka joins the Umlaut wagon D2, then later abandons it for Merlyn when the momentum starts to fizzle.
Umlaut joins on Merlyn, leading wagon at the time, prompted by the realization Firebringer probably would have shot Don. I think this is the only time so far their votes have lined up?
They don't talk about or interact with each other much, but the votes do again converge on osuka, which Ausuka immediately calls out as opportunistic, but doesn't go any further than that.
The only team Ausuka has to rule on with Umlaut in it is given "possible, but not much compelling evidence" which is kinda hedgy, but eh.
And we're done.
Final conclusions: Nah. The clashes all feel real, there's never any attempt to defuse pressure, and often they add momentum to each other's wagons, so if they are paired, they're playing it very dangerously.
Spoiler: Umlaut/Bingle
230 is somewhat awkward, and Umlaut will basically go on to defend Bingle for the rest of the day if I'm remembering the last three times correctly.
I think the interactions surrounding Bulge look natural.
648 has Umlaut in the fairly safe null tier.
In 826 Bingle offers a noncommittal townread, tempered by a request to keep Umlaut out of Elo if Bingle's eliminated. This could definitely be a partner thing, because it creates distance in a safe manner, while also asserting Umlaut is playing towny. Obviously, if Bingle/Umlaut are aligned, and Bingle gets eliminated, any suggestions about what to do with Umlaut are meaningless because they're both dead. It's also a strange take given Umlaut's consistent defense of him, though I know during Team Mafia Jingle said he had a tendency to scumread people townreading him, so... maybe it is genuine?
Umlaut continues expressing townreads on Bingle, indicates a willingness to compromise if necessary, but a distaste for it.
And then start of D2 Umlaut suddenly starts advocating for Bingle's death based on trying to force traditional wagon analysis into a game where it doesn't apply. My instinct is that it seems serious, and isn't what you'd want to do to a partner at day start, BUT... if Umlaut KNOWS the wagon analysis take is bad, and is starting the wagon with a deliberately bad reason... Huge big brain play? And also the fact that this pivot happens after one scum pair flips and pulling off effective distancing is just as good as a clear... I know it's tinfoily, but damn would it be cool if it's real.
Bingle votes osuka, but does complain about Umlaut.
But then if Umlaut is just pushing Bingle as a 9000 IQ red herring and doesn't actually want it to go through, I don't see why he'd back me up on my assertion of osuka being Town...
Umlaut finally moves off of Bingle to sheep Don, which is an incredibly weak reason.
Interestingly, throughout all of this, Bingle never actually votes for Umlaut in return, despite (or perhaps because of?) the wagon growing to a very reasonable size.
And then they both end up on osuka anyway.
1747 is VERY interesting to me, because Bingle points out that Umlaut saying I look Town but being paranoid is a "textbook buddy read," going on about the benefits of doing so... when that's literally exactly what Bingle said about Umlaut D1 with 826 as I covered earlier.
I do have hesitancy with regard to Bingle landing on an Umlaut vote though. It could be performative, knowing that votes now don't mean too much as we're likely to just kinda dictate a wagon later when more analyses come in, and the gamestate does necessitate that scum take some risks here, but it does give me some pause. It could be an interesting way to cast doubt on me, but why not just... do that then?
I think that covers it, this one's been rather meaty.
Final conclusions: Plausible. It's a tinfoil theory, but I believe it's a scheme they could reasonably come up with. I'd probably be interested in pursuing this if sheep ends up green.
Final final conclusions: Umlaut/Bingle's the only one that really has a spark for me, and it's a real juicy pairing, but it has enough holes that it doesn't supplant my existing reads. I'd vote Umlaut as a backup, but it doesn't seem like an ideal choice today. Maybe tomorrow if tomorrow happens.
