Micro 1089: the coalition, again [game over]

[fireisredsir]

i think for the most part skitter followed a pretty parallel trajectory with hellbooks as she did on isis (and was part of why i started to get suspicious of isis last day phase)

where she started out townreading her and being okay with being pushed out herself while hellbooks was consensus town, but then once the early vibes wore off and people started suspecting hellbooks, skitter started losing her townread, and then eventually when skitter was consensus town she wasn't ever considering any coalitions that had hellbooks in them (that i remember)

[Infinity 324]

i think for the most part skitter followed a pretty parallel trajectory with hellbooks as she did on isis (and was part of why i started to get suspicious of isis last day phase)

where she started out townreading her and being okay with being pushed out herself while hellbooks was consensus town, but then once the early vibes wore off and people started suspecting hellbooks, skitter started losing her townread, and then eventually when skitter was consensus town she wasn't ever considering any coalitions that had hellbooks in them (that i remember)

ah i kind of was assuming that skitt was always consensus town


i think 1902 is close to considering a coal with hellbooks in it. i guess i'm not really sure why you put hellbooks high up on a list like that as her scumpartner, if hellbooks suddenly picks up momentum as a coal member then she either has to accept it or do a strange pivot away from it.

[fireisredsir]

ok but she also had 1925 and 2063 which are waffling on putting me in, and there was a lot more push to put me in than hellbooks

like by that same logic she was way more likely to need to pivot away from me (or put me in and then bus me. i feel obligated to point out that this would probably be her strategy if scum with me there. but still)

i don't think anyone besides tris was pushing for hellbooks in (including hellbooks), and tris wasn't pushing very loudly

[Infinity 324]

skitt also stops really pushing fire after the coal goes through. thing is, she was away for a bit, then she starts to receive pressure, so no matter fire's alignment it's maybe best to step away from a push like that if she thinks it won't catch.

the problem is, i don't get why she kept pushing for town!fire to be left out of the coal to begin with? like there's false associative wine or whatever, but it's not like pushing fire still gets on shea's good side around 2063, and it's not like she was using her read on fire to get townreads or whatever.

[Infinity 324]

or put me in and then bus me. i feel obligated to point out that this would probably be her strategy if scum with me there.

it's funny, for a bit she was like "shea can you vote fire tomorrow if he's in the coal and it fails" and i reconsidered my stance for a bit

maybe i have too simplistic of a view of scumplay but good scum players usually say to bus less

[fireisredsir]

or put me in and then bus me. i feel obligated to point out that this would probably be her strategy if scum with me there.

it's funny, for a bit she was like "shea can you vote fire tomorrow if he's in the coal and it fails" and i reconsidered my stance for a bit

maybe i have too simplistic of a view of scumplay but good scum players usually say to bus less

imo, bus less, but if you are going to bus then make sure you bus hard enough that you get credit for it

the previous two don corleone winners (petapan and datisi) were both somewhat infamous for bussing a lot so i don't think they would say to bus less

[fireisredsir]

sorry to self meta again but i can't resist, this one isn't for alignment its just fun for me to think about

but personally i think if i rolled scum with skitter my immediate thought would be to go for trying to get both of us in the coalition to set us up to hard 1v1 starting on d2, ideally limming d3, after we yeeted a townie or two. and then whoever survives the 1v1 has the fun car + whoever is left in the coal to yeet and probably has enough thread control to do it

the issue with bussing a strong partner on d1 or d2 is that if you get enough cred for it to be useful, then there starts to be questions about why you haven't gotten nightkilled yet. so start the bus on d2, but let town kill each other, and then finish it on d3, and there's only one nk left to survive

[fireisredsir]

so i guess actually i agree with your instinct that she wouldn't want to bus me right after putting me in

and maybe she actually wouldn't want to do that to bulge either and ari was right about that

[fireisredsir]

skitt also stops really pushing fire after the coal goes through. thing is, she was away for a bit, then she starts to receive pressure, so no matter fire's alignment it's maybe best to step away from a push like that if she thinks it won't catch.

the problem is, i don't get why she kept pushing for town!fire to be left out of the coal to begin with? like there's false associative wine or whatever, but it's not like pushing fire still gets on shea's good side around 2063, and it's not like she was using her read on fire to get townreads or whatever.

but anyway yea idk why she did most of her stuff near the end of coalition forming phase either lol. i guess she just felt confident in her position in the coalition and wanted to leave false trails + look towny for being unwilling to push through a winning coal

and tbh it worked because it did make me heavily suspect people who were in the coalition with her. it also got her a townread from shea (which didn't survive, but it did get him to push tris first instead of her)

so yeah i guess that's why

[fireisredsir]

full disclosure i am starting to think it's hellbooks but part of me is also not sure if it's the same feeling i got when i started to think it was sheep and when i started to think it was isis

[fireisredsir]

it's actually pretty tragic for scum hellbooks that isis got un-townspewed because before that happened the kill wouldn't have been unusual at all and now suddenly it's enough to make people hmm and wonder if this is a setup for the infinity/fire 1v1 that was pretty telegraphed

[Infinity 324]

and tbh it worked because it did make me heavily suspect people who were in the coalition with her.

why? wouldn't she want to leave her scumbuddy out?

i don't think much of anything is tragic for scum!hellbooks here given that i am likely to vote you and win her the game

[Infinity 324]

i am a little bit embarrassed that fire is telling me "actually scum would play like this" and is probably right given that i have likely played 3x the amount of forum mafia games that he has

[hellbooks]

im too busy sipping my margharita on a beach to read all this (by which i mean im at work) but let me just chime in and say that scum hellbooks has already experienced the most unimaginable tragedy there is; namely not being able to annoy skitter past day 1

[Infinity 324]

fire's page 143 is fascinating to me but i can't figure out what it means

[fireisredsir]

and tbh it worked because it did make me heavily suspect people who were in the coalition with her.

why? wouldn't she want to leave her scumbuddy out?

exactly yeah, she looked like she wasn't happy/content with the direction the thread was going at the time that we were coalescing. she spent a long time waffling around on people on the borderline, and there were a lot of winning coalitions that she could have pushed through and she kept not doing that. if she could have easily just committed to one of me/sheep and pushed it through with tris/ari/shea/skitter while still having 1 in 1 out, then it was strange to me that she didn't do that, which led to me wondering why

[fireisredsir]

i don't think much of anything is tragic for scum!hellbooks here given that i am likely to vote you and win her the game

if you do get to a point where you are going to vote me i think i would prefer if you let me vote first, and i can decide which way i'm leaning. if you're town. if you're scum then you can go ahead and vote lol

it's pretty rare for me to want this given that usually i am content with letting other people make decisions but i think that if hellbooks is scum then she pretty much always wins if she just stalls on voting, but there's a chance that she does lose if me and her cross, bc then i have her alignment confirmed and i can finally read her posts without shielding my eyes, and maybe seeing the light is enough and you see it too

and that possibility is tantalizing enough to me that i would like at least a chance at considering if i want to go that direction. or alternatively if i am leaning towards you being scum then i will just vote you and it's no difference

[fireisredsir]

i said "winning coalition" twice recently from skitter's pov and i realize it's a confusing shorthand. i mean one that has her in and her partner out

[Infinity 324]

i don't think much of anything is tragic for scum!hellbooks here given that i am likely to vote you and win her the game

if you do get to a point where you are going to vote me i think i would prefer if you let me vote first, and i can decide which way i'm leaning. if you're town. if you're scum then you can go ahead and vote lol

it's pretty rare for me to want this given that usually i am content with letting other people make decisions but i think that if hellbooks is scum then she pretty much always wins if she just stalls on voting, but there's a chance that she does lose if me and her cross, bc then i have her alignment confirmed and i can finally read her posts without shielding my eyes, and maybe seeing the light is enough and you see it too

and that possibility is tantalizing enough to me that i would like at least a chance at considering if i want to go that direction. or alternatively if i am leaning towards you being scum then i will just vote you and it's no difference

ohhh i get what you're trying to do but yeah sure!

[fireisredsir]

that sounds like you're saying you get what scum!me is trying to do and now im curious what that scoundrel is up to (i wouldn't know personally. never met)

[Infinity 324]

i was confused by scum!you's play this dayphase, mostly because i think you'd be trying to snow me but you're not really doing that much to actually snow me. in this case i think you didn't want to make it obvious you knew i was town, and the snowing will probably start once you vote. the thing is, if isis survived the night i was ready to be like "isis look a how town i am!!!" right away so i think i wouldn't even have scumread you for that haha. there are still some things i'm confused about, like why you're not angling towards voting me, and why you're not doing more to try to look like you're solving. generally if wine is the only reason something is false i tend to assume it's true though

[Infinity 324]

i actually am really curious why all the things you're saying you would have done differently as scum are wrong! i just don't think i should weight them very much

[fireisredsir]

thats pretty reasonable yeah. sounds like something i might do

it does still sound like in that world id be trying to desperately pull myself out of a hole that i for some reason dug and then willingly and gladly jumped in but fair enough i suppose

[fireisredsir]

i feel like i am solving though, both from the real time angle of trying to understand both of your thoughts and sort you and also from the angle of spending a lot of time rereading and reading past meta

i guess it's true i haven't really made a big display of that but i haven't really reached an answer im happy with right now so that's harder for me to do

[fireisredsir]

i can try to talk about myself less tho, i do agree that doing so is generally like not super useful (and something that scums in this position really prefer doing) it's just hard for me not to respond to things sometimes