Large Normal 244 | Quotes From my Linear Algebra Professor or Random City Skylines or Random Songs: Town Wins!

[Flavor Leaf]

like if we get a run up, they claim some light PR, people move, and then we end up fading some other townie, that is 2 extra claimed slots in the game that just didn't need to be there, and likely a rushed fade onto a townie.

People seem to not realize how easy it is as scum to not get faded Day 1. Scum want tons of wagons and lack of cohesion because it highly benefits them when it's chaotic and wild if they can control it from falling onto them, which a lot of halfway capable scum can do in the early game.

Like as scum, I will never get misfaded Day 1 because of the ability to circular WIFOM + teammates. It just won't happen.

[TemporalLich]

mech is a base line, but it isn't the end all be all either.

Day play and objectives above all.

then how exactly am I supposed to read day play if I can't read by mindset?

[Flavor Leaf]

like im not totally 100% on zzzx being scum or anything, but they are 100% the best fade for the day based on risk of changing wagons onto claims.

Is there a chance we could hit scum? Sure, but the risk isn't worth the reward, especially in Multiball. Chances are, one of them are gonna deep wolf it anyways.

Day 1 associations arent that strong either because of the circular WIFOM aspect of no info.

[Flavor Leaf]

mech is a base line, but it isn't the end all be all either.

Day play and objectives above all.

then how exactly am I supposed to read day play if I can't read by mindset?

Look at what people are actually saying compared to what theyre doing, dont assume or project what theyre doing.

Is it easy? No. We aren't supposed to know who the scum team is on Day 1. That's ridiculous.

who is starting wagons when other wagons are arising? Who is defending wagons with weak inconclusive NAI reasons? Who's logic doesn't add up with the way they're playing?

[TemporalLich]

D1 associatives only have intuition based off them... they're mostly something to check after flips happen

pedit: I'm too burnt out to read this game intensively

[TemporalLich]

Ideally I'd eliminate one of {Psyche, ZZZX, BBmolla, iamveryhappy} today

[Flavor Leaf]

Everyone thinks that you have to hit scum every day or it's bad, that's just absurd.

The game is setup to have trails where it becomes possible to solve as the game progresses.

Force scum to take action, trim the branches that are covering them and allowing them to hide.

Fading a Vanilla Townie claim does two things:

If they're scum, great, we hit scum.

If they're town, great, it was just a VT and NOBODY ELSE HAS CLAIMED, meaning the majority of PR's will get a free Night Action.


Now let's move onto the next scenario:

We hop onto a wagon:

they claim, and 90% of the time, their claim will get at least a couple people to move off of them.

Then we rally onto another. This allows our PR's to get scoped out easier because it starts to show who isn't a PR. Scum also know their team, so they have an increased field of seeing where the PR's are over a townie would.

This starts to get really damaging as the game goes on.

And people hate to say, it really doesn't matter who you fade on Day 1. It really doesn't. So get a slot that has had a lot of pressure/people taking stances on, and hasn't given very much to the game, and move on.

The fact they voted Vanilla makes them even more warranted to be faded. I have played this exact same game multiple times, and half the time they end up flipping scum anyways

[Psyche]

Psyche gotta oppose both his buddies’ lims today, makes sense.

doesn't this sort of reasoning make TL's persistence about calling me scum a problem for your readslist

no, they had to distance. That didn't start until after he left the two of you out of his lead rist.

lol ok
but i don't have to distance?

[Flavor Leaf]

D1 associatives only have intuition based off them... they're mostly something to check after flips happen

pedit: I'm too burnt out to read this game intensively

don't put associatives that high this early. go on Day 1 objectives and setup for late game.

[pisskop]

Flavor 100% right about not collecting claims today.

Nothing is more tiresome than watching aggressive players Dbo the whole game on D1

[Flavor Leaf]

Psyche gotta oppose both his buddies’ lims today, makes sense.

doesn't this sort of reasoning make TL's persistence about calling me scum a problem for your readslist

no, they had to distance. That didn't start until after he left the two of you out of his lead rist.

lol ok
but i don't have to distance?

no, you would have to defend.

Like, Psyche, I've already said that slip line is like 35%. If you're town, that's not what's happening. My read is fully valid and is true if that was a slip. If it's not, it's not, and that's not what's happening.

From an outside POV, you should see this.

[Psyche]

Nah, I did do a study on this when I was handling archive data. D1 lims are in fact quite predictive of game outcomes. Town win a lot more when they lim scum D1. Honestly, it's incredibly obvious that this would be the case.

[Flavor Leaf]

like this day is done.

Fade ZZZx, dont get any more claims. If they flip scum, AMAZING. If they flip town, this was still a great day that we stopped SCUM from getting any important details on PR's.

[Flavor Leaf]

Nah, I did do a study on this when I was handling archive data. D1 lims are in fact quite predictive of game outcomes. Town win a lot more when they lim scum D1. Honestly, it's incredibly obvious that this would be the case.

Show your work or this is cap, because a lot of people say the exact opposite to this.

[Psyche]

You guys have all these wild confident beliefs about things you've never done the work to validate. I'm envious a way but it's tiresome.

[TemporalLich]

VOTE: ZZZX

flavor leaf has spoken, and I agree with this lim regardless

[TemporalLich]

You guys have all these wild confident beliefs about things you've never done the work to validate. I'm envious a way but it's tiresome.

I need to be overconfident to not get limmed Day 1

[Psyche]

Nah, I did do a study on this when I was handling archive data. D1 lims are in fact quite predictive of game outcomes. Town win a lot more when they lim scum D1. Honestly, it's incredibly obvious that this would be the case.

Show your work or this is cap, because a lot of people say the exact opposite to this.

oooh a lot of people

say

things
yeah sure i'll find the code

[Flavor Leaf]

Ideally I'd eliminate one of {Psyche, ZZZX, BBmolla, iamveryhappy} today

BBm, if scum, isn't going down based on teammates would defend higher, and they already light claimed PR.

Not worth wagoning because they just claim PR at the end and get to coast with it if they are scum, or scum learn his PR.

IAVH is okay since they were a hot topic spot, but their content has lacked, as has zzzx. But what happens if they just claim PR before they're faded?

Like in all aspects of the world, ZZZx is the right spot to go because of how easy it is right now for scum to get out of a fade.

Unless you think you have the conviction level that you would power through and still fade one of them claiming a Strong PR?

[pisskop]

Just be regular confident. Mafia is and always was a social game about convincing people.

Its nice to have the text to review, but its a social game.

[Flavor Leaf]

You guys have all these wild confident beliefs about things you've never done the work to validate. I'm envious a way but it's tiresome.

That is your assumption.

I know from my own personal experience that I have done the work to validate.

This is a blanket discredit from your own projection without anything backing that up.

You also failed to give the work, so until proven, i don't believe youve done the work to validate.

It's just a back and forth maFilosophical debate.

[TemporalLich]

it will bite me later, but it's a strategy I sadly have to use

pedit: it's better if we are in a good position Day 2 - a good position can happen even if we mislim, but we'd need to vote for scummy players

ppedit: yeah ZZZX is probably the ideal lim today.

also I can't be regularly confident as that requires actually being confident rather than faking confidence

[Flavor Leaf]

Nah, I did do a study on this when I was handling archive data. D1 lims are in fact quite predictive of game outcomes. Town win a lot more when they lim scum D1. Honestly, it's incredibly obvious that this would be the case.

Show your work or this is cap, because a lot of people say the exact opposite to this.

oooh a lot of people

say

things
yeah sure i'll find the code

it needs to be in the past 5 years because things could have changed/been different before, but the past few town victories of mine, town was faded first every time.

[TemporalLich]

I'm not Flavor Leaf, and I didn't roll Thaumaturge this game

[Flavor Leaf]

it will bite me later, but it's a strategy I sadly have to use

pedit: it's better if we are in a good position Day 2 - a good position can happen even if we mislim, but we'd need to vote for scummy players

ppedit: yeah ZZZX is probably the ideal lim today.

also I can't be regularly confident as that requires actually being confident rather than faking confidence

dont be confident then if you aren't confident.

You look fake af when you overcompensate