Mini #704: Hunchback of Notre Dame, Game Over


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Post Post #375 (ISO) » Wed Dec 10, 2008 7:59 pm

Post by Urzassedatives »

Ok, so I'm up to page 10 by this point. I wouldn't post during a re-read except that as soon as I catch up, we'll have a deadline over our heads, so time is of the essence.

From what I can tell the attacks on my predecessor are due to his inactivity. Well, lets have no more of that foolishness. I am here, and I am active.

"BUT URZA!" You say, "how can we possibly find someone better to lynch before deadline?"

Never fear. I am here. Up through page 9 I have some pretty good candidates for lynchinz.

First of all, I will say that I think that orto and MM (thats mach-mafia) are most likely town. This is for a couple of reasons. First of all, I really like how Orto responds to arguments against him, he's very good at pointing out logical inconsistancies and attacking where there is merit, but more importantly, I have not seen him attack where there ISN'T merit, yet. And that is a much more important town tell to me. MM I have just generally liked his play.

On my shit list are Uriel, but this is one I'm having a little difficulty with in my mind, because the things I am picking up on are either indicative of scum who knows what they are doing, or town who has no clue. He attacks things that appear out of the ordinary, without giving justification for whether or not they are SCUMMY. Remember, scummy has a very definite meaning. It is an action that a scum player is more likely to do than a town player. Therefore to see uriel jumping on those things, to me, is indicative of one or two things.

In particular the juxtaposition between post 21 and 71 is very telling, where he FOSs the self voter, while slightly condemning the actions, while trying to not actually look like he is that much attacking him. The FOS here makes no sense to me as a townie, seeing as if a player is scummy to you that early in the game, you vote for them, and if you don't, you don't attack them. Especially in the random voting stage, one would expect to see a vote as opposed to a FOS from a town player here. Thats what sets urziel apart from the rest of the people who attacked the self voter. He attacks, but doesn't put any weight behind it. Fence sitting at it's core.

His post 94, and subsequent posts on that issue, however, lend credence to the theory that he is a clueless townie. He makes a retarded (And I use retarded to have a specific meaning in mafia. That is, without motivation for either side) argument which is chock laden with wifom, and continues to talk about it, even though it clearly makes no sense at all.

Either he is attempting to appear like he is scum hunting without actually doing so which is scummy scum scummy, or he just has no clue what he is actually supposed to be doing as town, which is not not not. Either way, its the second best lynch for the day.

On the very top of the shitlist we have Clockwork ruse.

I really really REALLY don't like post 54. This is where clockwork ruse attacks a player for "defending the self voter" hell, if I were in the game then I would have been defending the self voter to. Self voting is stupid as hell, but it provides no insight at all into the alignment of a player. None whatsoever. Zip. Nada. Zilch. There is no real motivation for scum to do it that is separate from town motivation to do it, and therefore it is the definition of a NULL TELL.

Now, you might be saying to yourself "Well, a lot of people attacked the self voter...I was one of them." and this is true, but what sets clockworks actions apart is how he doesn't directly attack either player for any one thing. He attacks Orto for what clockwork did, and by proxy attacks the self voter. He clearly thinks what the self voter has done is "scummy" but doesn't vote him. This is not only dumb because in order for orto to be scum in the way clockwork is presenting the game, the self voter has to be, and since Ortos alignment is then dependant on the self voters, and not the other way around, he should be voting the self voter, but scummy because it allows him to add more pressure to the self voter wagon without actually implicating himself by it, and also allows him to poison ortos well by accusing him of things that aren't really scummy that put him on the defensive and take him off the offensive.

Secondly, a pretty big thing I look for is when players are not honestly interested in determining alignment, but are instead just looking to win the argument. Clockworks post 152 is a perfect example of this. The mischaracterization of Ortos vote "HE ADMITS IT WAS OMGUS" is pretty ridiculous, and is not something a player interested in determining orto's alignment would say. Orto quite clearly said that he was being a tad biased, and then went on to explain the nature of the vote. Clockwork IGNORES the real justification, something that if discussed might lead to information about orto's alignment, and goes straight for the jugular with a can't miss, look what stupid things he's doing he's an idiot argument. This is telling because I think there's a pretty clear divide between what a town player would do in this situation, and what a scum player would do in this situation. Psychologically, this is a pretty damn strong tell in my book.

Unvote, (if my replacee was voting) and VOTE: Clockwork ruse
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Post Post #376 (ISO) » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:26 pm

Post by Urzassedatives »

Just noting that I have finished my read, and that I want to add Axelrod to the town list as well. He is making good arguments, and scumhunting his ass off, from what I can see. Lets string up Clockwork ruse, guys. Barring that, lets string up natirasha, who replaced uriel. If you really think any other lynches are good, I'd be happy to hear cases, but these are the best in my opinion.
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Post Post #377 (ISO) » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:36 pm

Post by roflcopter »

holy shit who is this urzassedatives guy and how did he get so good at this game
soi soi soi

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Post Post #378 (ISO) » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:40 pm

Post by roflcopter »

and i'm glad the replacement cleared up the caboose issue so succinctly, urzas is obvtown
soi soi soi

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Post Post #379 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:39 am

Post by Mizzy »

ClockworkRuse wrote:What? If I live through this day, you can certainly expect a re-read on you. You are willing to lynch based on one post by a player?
First off, I don't see there being any way Nat gets lynched. Second off, if I have to vote someone (and I do have to vote, whether I want to or not, because if I don't, then I'm just scum trying to stay off wagons, right? Damned if you do, damned if you don't.) then I am going to vote someone that is less helpful and more scummy than the two candidates that are up on the block. If I had to choose between Nat being lynched and either CC or you being lynched, I'd choose Nat, yes.
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Post Post #380 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:55 am

Post by Urzassedatives »

Heyo, Mizzy.

Care to respond and/or comment on the COMPLETELY NEW perspective of the game I just gave, rather than taking a cop out and continuing your petty bickering with clockwork ruse.

Why are you arguing with him, anyway? He's pretty much obv scum.
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Post Post #381 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 3:15 am

Post by Axelrod »

Welcome Urzasedatives, fancy meeting you here....

With the new extension, I'm leaving my vote right where it is until Nat. does his promised "re-read" and actually comes back and says something productive.
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Post Post #382 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 3:19 am

Post by Mizzy »

Urzassedatives wrote:Heyo, Mizzy.

Care to respond and/or comment on the COMPLETELY NEW perspective of the game I just gave, rather than taking a cop out and continuing your petty bickering with clockwork ruse.

Why are you arguing with him, anyway? He's pretty much obv scum.
Actually, I haven't responded to your post because I'm at work and don't have time to read it until tonight or even possibly until tomorrow. Small posts I can do, but not walls-o-text.

He asked me a question, I answered it. Would you prefer that I dodge his question? And maybe he's obvscum to you, but he's not to me.
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Post Post #383 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 3:29 am

Post by Urzassedatives »

Thats fair enough. Attack retracted.
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Post Post #384 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 4:10 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Day One: Vote Count #17


5 Urzassedatives (Machiavellian-Mafia, Natirasha, destructor, ClockworkRuse, CarnCarn)
3 ClockworkRuse (ortolan, roflcopter, Urzassedatives)
2 Natirasha (Axelrod, Mizzy)
1 CarnCarn (ThAdmiral)

With
12
alive, it takes
7
to lynch, and
4
to lynch at deadline.
Deadline December 14, 9:59 pm CDT.


Not Voting – 1 – Battousai

Note: This post has been double-edited; the first to correct the vote count, the second to emphasize the deadline since it was easy to miss.
Last edited by petroleumjelly on Thu Dec 11, 2008 9:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Post Post #385 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 7:24 am

Post by Mizzy »

What the hell is with the sudden onslaught of Caboose/Urzassedatives votes? I call shenanigans.
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Post Post #386 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 7:35 am

Post by Urzassedatives »

Well, I would say the votes on me tended to develop from a "we have to lynch somebody at deadline, lets lynch the lurker" perspective, which is valid in it's own right I guess. However, I'm not here and not a lurker, so that case should disappear.

I have made a case on Clockwork, and I can only surmise that the votes on him have accumulated because of the same things I saw and have pointed out in my previous post. You call shenanigans, I call scummy play and a deadline.
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Post Post #387 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 7:36 am

Post by Urzassedatives »

EBWODP:

I AM here, heh.
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Post Post #388 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 7:56 am

Post by Mizzy »

Urzassedatives wrote:Well, I would say the votes on me tended to develop from a "we have to lynch somebody at deadline, lets lynch the lurker" perspective, which is valid in it's own right I guess. However, I'm not here and not a lurker, so that case should disappear.

I have made a case on Clockwork, and I can only surmise that the votes on him have accumulated because of the same things I saw and have pointed out in my previous post. You call shenanigans, I call scummy play and a deadline.
I only called shenanigans on the votes on you, actually.
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Post Post #389 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 9:04 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Unvote
Wow, this is really confusing. My initial thoughts that Caboose/destructor were deliberately trying to detract from the CR wagon seem weak given Urza's desire for a CR lynch now.
Trying to decide where to vote now - I will probably vote one of Urza/CR before deadline. Have to reread urza and CR before making a decision.
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Post Post #390 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 9:14 am

Post by Urzassedatives »

FOS CarnCarn


On the very surface of it, I don't like that post because you're giving a false dichotomy. We don't even HAVE a deadline right now, so there is absolutely no need to limit your choices to just me or CR. What do you think of Natirasha? How about Mizzy? What do you think about ROFLcoptors flip flop? (Saying Caboose was obv scum to deciding that I am obv town in one post) Please don't limit yourself to just one direction of thinking.

Secondly, caboose had maybe four or five posts this whole game, maybe one or two with game relevant information in them. It seems silly to lynch a player you know that little about, especially given the fact that I am here and posting content from which you can gain reads, where as CR has been here posting lots, and is demonstratively scummy. Read my case on scum vs. town motivations on him. It's pretty strong. If you DO force yourself to choose between just those options, I think it's pretty sure that you should vote for the player who has posted lots of content and has scum tells as opposed to the replacer of a player who posted very little content, who is now giving you the opportunity to read the role.
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Post Post #391 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 9:17 am

Post by Urzassedatives »

Oh poop. I just noticed PJ DID reinstate the deadline already. Either way, my point still stands. There is plenty of time to find the right lynch. Don't limit to yourself.
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Post Post #392 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 9:26 am

Post by CarnCarn »

We do have a deadline (12/14)

You make an interesting point about rofl that I was going to mention, too. As for the others, I don't see Nat as scum based on his two posts (one of which I said I agreed with).
Mizzy struck me as odd for continuing to go after Ramus for being vague/noncompliant even after Ramus revealed his "gambit"; also, reluctance to vote since her intial vote is a bit scummy, but apparently that's just how she plays, so it's likely to just be a null-tell. So, yeah, I find Mizzy slightly scummy but not really vote-worthy.

Caboose didn't post much but what he did post and then his opportune disappearance around deadline without answering my question to explain his case on me was pretty scummy.

I've had you and CR on my scummiest list for a while now, so I don't think it's a surprise that I've mentioned I would probably vote either you or him before deadline and I don't see it as locking into one or the other just yet. Willing to change it of course.

Want moar Nat posting, for example, and want rofl to answer why (specific examples) his opinion of you changed so quickly.
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Post Post #393 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 9:35 am

Post by Urzassedatives »

Right, but you're missing my point about me. The main problems with caboose seem to be a) He's a pretty bad player, and b) he was basically inactive the whole game. Going off of that, you can't have a really strong read on him

(I mean, I don't think he strategically planned ANYTHING this game, he doesn't seem like a good schemer, of course I have the insight of knowing his role which makes me KNOW he's not a very strategic person, but I digress)

You're probably very annoyed at him, which might be clouding your judgment as to whether or not you think he's scum. Look at the facts, there really isn't enough to base even a barebones read off of him. I posted more game relevant analysis in my first post in this game than he did the whole rest of day one.

The point is, keeping me around and reading what I do tomorrow will be a much better indicator of the alignment of this role than reading cabooses play today. It's common sense, I give you more interactions with more players, as well as more posting frequency.

On the other hand, you have Clockwork, who has posted a shit ton, and you are not going to get a better read on, probably. You already have him pegged as scummy, and his posting is not going to give you any better opportunities to read him. He's not changing.

A simple calculation of accuracy tells you that he's a way better lynch for today, even IF you disregard the post I made which lays out two pretty damn good d1 reasons as to why he's obv scum.

That's my argument. You get a WAY more accurate read on my role by keeping me around, but the same isn't true on CR. So even if you find him and Caboose equally scummy (which I find highly unlikely) He's the better lynch.
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Post Post #394 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 10:19 am

Post by Battousai »

Sorry, I have been less than active playing games lately. It's final time, so I've been really studying lately. I'm going to post a small/quick post so you all know my line of thinking until I can post more (prob later today).

Nat- I do not want to lynch Nat right now. From a past game, this is generally the playing style.

Caboose- I'm on another site with him in which he has signups for a large game and currently running a mini. I've seen him be scum in all the games I was with him in and only once was he town. In all the games, he is usually more active than this and his posting this game is bizarre. I can't personally get a read on him from his current posts. Now that he has been replaced, and his replacement has been forthcoming with insight, I am unwilling to lynch Caboose at this instant.

Mizzy- As I have already stated with my vote, I find her play this game sketchy, but my read on her needs to improve more before I would vote her at deadline.

CR- Even though I don't feel there is enough scum points against him at this injuncture, a CR vote by me is more likely going to happen since the information we would gain on D1 has pushed the advantage of his lynch.

More soon.
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Post Post #395 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 3:20 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

roflcopter wrote:god this deadline/no deadline/deadline/no deadline dance is killing me
If this isn't scum frustrated because they just missed out on lynching a town (so they could use their nightkill), then I don't know what is.

it's not too late to set up a rofl wagon is it?

unvote, vote: roflcopter
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Post Post #396 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 3:53 pm

Post by Battousai »

CarnCarn- post 353- offering to selfhammer if it was majority, but takes it back due to it being pointless in this situation. Doubts everyone at wagon is town (Caboose, destructor, ThAdmiral). I find that offering to kill yourself is a slight scumtell, even with the immediate withdrawl in the same post.


3 CarnCarn (Caboose, destructor, ThAdmiral)
3 ClockworkRuse (ortolan, CarnCarn, roflcopter)
1 Caboose (Machiavellian-Mafia)
1 Mizzy (Natirasha)
1 roflcopter (ClockworkRuse)
2- nat (Axelrod, Mizzy,

Ort- If wasn't voting CWR would vote rofl and both aren't scum together. Links Mizzy to CR due to similar tunneling/attacks on him. I find Ort more likely town due to who was attacking him/why.

MM- doesn't like CC or CWR as a lynch (both were one under majority and both very plausible lynches at the time). Said that if had to would lynch CWR due to more info.

Rofl- states that will switch to a Nat or Caboose wagon, even though earlier said not lynching CWR would be a big mistake. The only thing that really changed was that Nat picked up two votes (making the vote count

3 CC
3 CWR
2 Nat
1 Caboose

Mizzy- When asked by CWR, “You are willing to lynch based on one post by a player?” Stated that she doesn't see any way Nat being lynched. At time of her vote the count was 3 CC, 3 CWR, 2 Nat. Then plays the damned if you do, damned if you don't card, which I see as her trying to pre-defend her vote

These are the reasons for the Caboose votes: MM- inactivity, Nat- own survival (2 others before supported lynching Caboose before vote), destructor- inactivity, CWR- inactivity/ serious weak vote, CC- inactivity calls for majority.
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Post Post #397 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 3:55 pm

Post by Battousai »

EBWOP:
Vote: Roflcopter
, until explains why he wants to lynch Nat or Caboose over CWR now.
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Post Post #398 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 5:20 pm

Post by ClockworkRuse »

Axelrod wrote:
ClockworkRuse wrote: ... What? If I live through this day, you can certainly expect a re-read on you. You are willing to lynch based on one post by a player?
Well, ignoring for the moment the posts of the player he replaced (which I wasn't), when we're up against a dealine, and considering that the one thing he did say made absolutely no sense at all...yes.
I'd just as soon get rid of someone who might be scum and is definitely going to be useless as someone who might be scum but is at least posting.

But I'm not against the Caboose wagon either. Reviewing his posts, he's managed to be just as useless but used more words.
I've never played with him before, so I don't know how he typically is, but this doesn't look too good.

I don't know when the deadline hits my time (Eastern Standard). I can next check back in around 9:00 a.m. in case something else happens.
First bold; you can’t ignore the posts the player before him made. I see you say you weren’t but still. Second, when faced with a deadline where there were… two other choices, you went left field? Tell me how that helps the deadline voting scenario at all. Essentially, before we had a replacement for Caboose, you weren’t going to be on either of the wagons for the most prospective players.

Second bold; If I read this correctly; you didn’t think Caboose was being a lazy townie at first because he used more words?

At Urz, I’m seriously not going to defend myself against the same points over and over again. Finish reading please than take a look at your vote. I have admitted since; a.) I was tunneling Ort. b.) My vote on Ort was a pressure vote originally, I didn’t like how he reacted to it, and that I thought the pressure on the Ramus wagon was adequate even if he said it wasn’t. c.) I was definitely tunneling Ort. Looking over it, was some seriously horrible play on my part. I was the VI for a good portion of the game, but I don’t plan on continuing that bad streak.

And as to the defending; I am
not
against defending. I am against defending before we can get a reaction for the person the question was originally asked. I didn’t feel that Ramus’s reactions to the pressure he was receiving was adequate and when Ort began to defend him I placed a pressure vote on him.
roflcopter wrote:and i'm glad the replacement cleared up the caboose issue so succinctly, urzas is obvtown


And why is that?
Mizzy wrote:
ClockworkRuse wrote:What? If I live through this day, you can certainly expect a re-read on you. You are willing to lynch based on one post by a player?
First off, I don't see there being any way Nat gets lynched.
Second off, if I have to vote someone (and I do have to vote, whether I want to or not, because if I don't, then I'm just scum trying to stay off wagons, right? Damned if you do, damned if you don't.) then I am going to vote someone that is less helpful and more scummy than the two candidates that are up on the block. If I had to choose between Nat being lynched and either CC or you being lynched, I'd choose Nat, yes.
At deadline, you were voting someone who you “didn’t see there being any way” they got lynched.

Noted.
Urzassedatives wrote:Heyo, Mizzy.

Care to respond and/or comment on the COMPLETELY NEW perspective of the game I just gave, rather than taking a cop out and continuing your petty bickering with clockwork ruse.

Why are you arguing with him, anyway? He's pretty much obv scum.
And now we have another rofl, calling me obv scum before I even get a chance to respond?

And why does Mizzy have to respond to your “completely new” perspective to the game?

And I say “completely new” because I’ve seen most of it from rofl.
”Urzassedatives” wrote:
On the other hand, you have Clockwork, who has posted a shit ton, and you are not going to get a better read on, probably. You already have him pegged as scummy, and his posting is not going to give you any better opportunities to read him. He's not changing.
Who are you to say I am not changing? And weren’t you saying something about
pretty ridiculous, and is not something a player interested in determining orto's alignment would say
Well, if you exclude Ort. Shouldn’t you not be appealing to emotion to get my lynched, if your case is so strong and I am such obv scum?

I didn’t want to quote the entire post, but the more I read it…;
Urzassedatives wrote:Right, but you're missing my point about me. The main problems with caboose seem to be a) He's a pretty bad player, and b) he was basically inactive the whole game. Going off of that, you can't have a really strong read on him

(I mean, I don't think he strategically planned ANYTHING this game, he doesn't seem like a good schemer, of course I have the insight of knowing his role which makes me KNOW he's not a very strategic person, but I digress)


You're probably very annoyed at him, which might be clouding your judgment as to whether or not you think he's scum.
Look at the facts, there really isn't enough to base even a barebones read off of him. I posted more game relevant analysis in my first post in this game than he did the whole rest of day one.

The point is, keeping me around and reading what I do tomorrow will be a much better indicator of the alignment of this role than reading cabooses play today.
It's common sense, I give you more interactions with more players, as well as more posting frequency.

On the other hand, you have Clockwork, who has posted a shit ton, and you are not going to get a better read on, probably. You already have him pegged as scummy, and his posting is not going to give you any better opportunities to read him. He's not changing.

A simple calculation of accuracy[/u tells you that he's a way better lynch for today, even IF you disregard the post I made which lays out two pretty damn good d1 reasons as to why he's obv scum.

That's my argument.
You get a WAY more accurate read on my role by keeping me around, but the same isn't true on CR.
So even if you find him and Caboose equally scummy (which I find highly unlikely) He's the better lynch.
Your logic is that “Because you can get a better read on me with me around, and you can’t get one on Clock, lynch him and look at me later.”
The bolded will prove that.

Caboose’s play should not just be thrown out because he’s “a poor player.” He had plenty of time to be a “poor player” in other games, so why did he ignore this one? It wasn’t like he wouldn’t have had anything to comment on, he was under scrutiny the last time he decided to disappear. Obviously, this is going into WIFOM. But it needs to be pointed out that we can’t just excuse his play as him being a “bad player.”

Look at the underlined, “A simple calculation of accuracy”, do you mind explain what you mean by that?

How do you call me backing off my tunneling not changing? Have I not made more reasonable cases lately? You are attacking me because I made bad play and I tunneled, both of which I’ve admitted to and kicked myself for. What would the benefits of attacking Ort like I did be for scum?

Italics is basically WIFOM. Unless you can prove you have a reasonable meta to back that statement up.

I’m starting to run out of font styles to use. D=

Anyways, you state;
You're probably very annoyed at him, which might be clouding your judgment as to whether or not you think he's scum.


Do you think that the town would be willing to lynch on mere annoyance alone? What do you take of my thoughts of him yesterday when I voted him?

There is also a load of false dichotomy in here.

@ Batt: 16 pages, 397 posts and the best reason you can come up for lynching me is
still
information?
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Battousai
Battousai
Mafia Scum
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User avatar
Battousai
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 3168
Joined: December 9, 2007
Location: Indiana

Post Post #399 (ISO) » Thu Dec 11, 2008 7:40 pm

Post by Battousai »

CWR: I'm I voting to lynch you? No. Do I need to make a case against someone I'm not trying to get lynched? I don't think so. All I said was that I would vote you more likely than Mizzy, Caboose, or Nat and that the information we could gain from your lynch is what is pushing you up higher than many players here.

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