In post 2253, imaginality wrote:
Gob and Prism have done the "early distancing and then softening" pattern this game and now both vote me makes me wonder if they could be partners. I think if so then that points to Titus town and them wanting to redirect today's lim to another townie now the Titus wagon has started to dwindle.
I don't understand this even accepting the absurd premise that gob and I are partnered. I haven't voted Titus today. I don't think gob has either, but I can't check right now.
Why does that point to Titus town? Why do we need to redirect the lim "to another townie" (even though neither of us are threatened) with a dwindling Titus wagon (that neither of us are on)?
After thinking on it, I could extrapolate why imaginality thinks me an unlikely Titus partner. This raised even more questions.
He's thinking of two worlds. In the first, Titus is scum and he deduces that I must be town. I get it after thought. In the second, Titus is town and he deduces that I must be scum. I don't understand this deduction. It seems more like an assumption.
In post 2271, imaginality wrote:
It effectively changes it from 8-2 tomorrow to 3-2. Pretty sure their second scummiest player can hide better among 10 than among 5.
4-2 as there would be one extra living player, and also I'm sure any scumteam can pick out 5 players who are basically never getting eliminated.
It's a notable difference but less important strategically than scum positioning for day 3, which is the most important day in the game by a long way. If the game hits day 4 then that is what they call crunch time for both alignments
"As best I can tell, jjh is some kind of wizard with mind control powers." -Jingle
Eh, it seems to be more "If Titus is scum -> Prism is town" and "If Prism is scum -> Titus is town", which are equivalent statements derived in two different ways.
hello i am in a vaguely posting mood again
when i was reading back a day ago i felt that a prism/titus world was actually possible, i’m not sure what’s ruling it out (i have skimmed recent pages and absorbed little atm)
I think the plausibility has come and gone over time. The low point was the two days or so after her replace-in.
Imaginality specifically thinks the pairing is unlikely because of my meta on her where I language-matched, but made an error. He thinks I made the "mistake" for towncred (even though walking through the process and giving my conclusion without the "error" does more legwork, I guess there is also a world where I want to undermine my own credibility for strategic reasons), but presumably something about me looking suggests I was out for blood on Titus.
oh i read that differently, it felt like a plausible little bit where you could’ve been pretending to have process on her etc
i think it still reads the same to me if she’s town
i think maybe there’s more weight to the mistake thing because i think you also made one about the setup (?) earlier on and then it’s like pattern of missing little things towny eagerniess fake etc
i don’t know how much i believe it because it’s hard to really buy into that without other proof but i didn’t find a reason to townread you from it either
i’m waiting for a vote count but i think i’m going to vote titus when there is one, i really can’t see a world where this is how she plays repping in as town, it’s too static and prone to the same few tactics to try and reach a goal
There's a pretty clear scum incentive for the first mistake. It would be a gambit where the mistake excludes me being scum.
The second mistake there isn't really any incentive. I did research into a question I had about a unique phrase Titus used. I don't need to come to a faulty conclusion to show that I went through the process and research. Walking through my steps and how my hypothesis was not confirmed or disproved accomplishes the same goal without destroying my credibility.
To be clear, I'm not saying that the research I did has to be +town (even though I think it is). It's the fact I did it that mattered, and the mistake part of it is NAI.
i don’t think it’s about what you technically need to do but it’s about like the possible… flourish? i see playing wolf as trying to act like a normal human and mistakes fit into that. i think i’m being pedantic tho given my % belief in the theory
Prism being scum would need a very high level of calculated behaviour to craft a very specific persona that isn't even successfully getting everyone to townread him because of the inherent futility in maximum effort scumplay due to people just being paranoid
"As best I can tell, jjh is some kind of wizard with mind control powers." -Jingle
I don't think scum Prism would keep doing what he's been doing all game if it wasn't actually getting people to townread him, assuming it was performative.
"As best I can tell, jjh is some kind of wizard with mind control powers." -Jingle
Is that really true? The set of people who townread me, and the set of those who do not, are near-identical to the sets of players with the most and least influence.
I can revoke some of your towncred if you like though
Also, since you brought it up, I don't think influence is presenting this game in a conventional way, which is painful for me when this forms a key part of my scumhunting methodology
"As best I can tell, jjh is some kind of wizard with mind control powers." -Jingle
I like rigor for its own sake, nothing more intended. I also didn't doubt the sincerity of the read.
Influence in the context I used it is nebulous-here, my usage was as much concerned with "likely to still hold a vote by endgame" as I was personality. I'm more of a practical vote-counter than anything
Well, if you ever wanna talk about the psychological concepts of influence or expertise and how they relate to mafia then I've been sneakily utilising and not sharing a methodology based on academic social science for most of the time I have been on this site
Sometimes I look back on my little playbook I never posted and I'm like "Yes, individual accountability does produce better group outcomes. Thanks past me"
"As best I can tell, jjh is some kind of wizard with mind control powers." -Jingle
In post 2216, T3 wrote:
Could camel be bussing jjh? When I look at his progression on jjh throughout his ISO it makes sense and I don't think that camel's sustained questioning of jjh comes from scumpartners, like I can see the town motivation and a deeper thought process behind his questions and interactions.
