Open 889 | Secrets of the Anuket Topaz | fin.

[Firebringer]

VOTE: Shirou
bring it lets 1v1

after i'm done with u people are gonna post our fight in r-rated websites

u don't know shit about me kid

i reported you for having a terrible avatar

[Prism]

I have no more will this game. Do whatever.

[Firebringer]

okay not goofing off since Prism doesn't enjoy these shit posts

VOTE: Gob

[Lazy Shirou]

'im gonna destroy u

i''ll kill u so hard that your data will cease existing in the Yggdrasil tree

[Firebringer]

naah u already won the 1v1, its not fun for others and i don't actually scumread you here. I thought us mock fighting would liven up the game with a shit post fest but prism isn't feeling it

[Lazy Shirou]

'im shirou the destroyer of digital worlds and threads

p-edit: aww okay

[gob]

I'll pretend to jump off a bridge if there's no scum in [StD/Imaginality/Andres/T3]

and @Gob, I agree with you that Firebringer could be scum but I just think he can also be town and the above pool is like, ?guaranteed? to have his partner.

If it's something dumb like Fire/JJH or Fire/Ydra I just give up on this shit tbh

At this point StD is not in the pool. What I said + what other people said about how StD would've left before camel, i think that's true.

I think if Andres is mafia then FIrebringer is town and vice versa. I think i actually prefer the Andres wagon to an imaginality one.

i have to again ask how you come with these assumptions/reasons.
Because i frankly don't see how me and andres couldn't be a team from your perspective if we just go on vca since i don't think ive voted andres at all in this game. What basis is there that you got to one of us is town and other has to be mafia.

Explain it like im 5

Day 1 wagon = misboot
misboot wagon = most likely has maf on it
idea = mafia don't vote the same since it implicates them as partners, especially in this setup where mafia have to vote to kill people.
conclusion = mafia will be on separate wagons
conclusion = wagons create PoE pools in themselves.

Ydrasse+Firebringer voted Titus Day 1
JJH on StD and Andres on Ydrasse

This is the pool I am working with. I feel confident on StD. Ydrasse I feel less confident in now, but day 2 I felt confident so I'm pretty sure they're town. JJH I think is also most likely town at this point.

That leaves you and Andres. i do not like Andres' vote onto StD. Felt very opportunistic. In fact a lot of his plays this day have felt opportunistic. BUT, he does seem to be trying to solve. You haven't done much this game I feel like. It's usually just jokey pop-ins. Usually people who are constantly joking are scum.

The time-read on you and camel is also there but most people don't find that valid.

I think it's most likely imaginality as the other wolf, but I will deal with that all later most likely. The imaginality wagon stinks, and on the off chance JJH is a deep wolf, I don't want to go that way today.

[Lazy Shirou]

i think u may be scum though (for real)

just can't be bothered to think or consider why i would pick you over others first

VOTE: andres

[gob]

It doesn't really matter because none of you will believe me or understand it anyway.

I will probably just use this, and keep it to myself and make up dumb reasoning in later games.

[Lazy Shirou]

i think your theory makes some sense gob

it's just that there's also context to consider and andres being scum would still fit in your narrative

[gob]

i think your theory makes some sense gob

it's just that there's also context to consider and andres being scum would still fit in your narrative

Well it does. Which is why I think it's Fire > Andres > imaginality for me.

[Prism]

It wasn't the shitposts. You two are voting who you think the scum are and having a fun detour. Others are tempting fate by wondering what happens if we go have a deadline scramble for fun.

[Lazy Shirou]

the game is stagnating and everyone is getting demotivated so i hope you can come vote Andres with us at some point since you feel negatively about him.

at least it would be a more unified push that could lead us to somewhere

[Firebringer]

I still don't see how your theory can't make it so that both me and andres are town or both are scum. Like whats the line in breaking that.

But im done asking I don't think your going to make sense here and trying to pry you to give me context/understanding of how you see certain votes/actions is not getting me anywhere

[Lazy Shirou]

It wasn't the shitposts. You two are voting who you think the scum are and having a fun detour. Others are tempting fate by wondering what happens if we go have a deadline scramble for fun.

tomorrow on youtube:

"I waited until the deadline and LOOK WHAT HAPPENED"

[Prism]

It doesn't really matter because none of you will believe me or understand it anyway.

I will probably just use this, and keep it to myself and make up dumb reasoning in later games.

Your reasoning has literally been in use on this site since 2004. Here's a quick 2007 link for fun.

It is not novel. Players on this website learn about it during their first game. Players at this table do not rely on it exclusively for a reason. They are extremely skeptical of your use because they have learned the limitations of it over time. One of the most common errors is failing to appreciate basic conditional probability, which is that when you chain assumptions on the basis that they are

probably true

together, the final conclusion becomes significantly less likely. Your analysis is riddled with these unsound assumptions chained together, which is why everyone thinks it's awful.

[Lazy Shirou]

"YOU WON'T BELIEVE WHAT HAPPENED 24 HOURS CLOSE TO THE DEADLINE"

12 million views, 150k likes.

"A guide to solving, efforting and pushing scum in the game"

17 views, 1 like, 3 dislikes.

[gob]

I still don't see how your theory can't make it so that both me and andres are town or both are scum. Like whats the line in breaking that.

But im done asking I don't think your going to make sense here and trying to pry you to give me context/understanding of how you see certain votes/actions is not getting me anywhere

I have a lot of experience.

Many years playing forum mafia on various sites in multiple languages.
Many years playing 1v1 wolf-style games.
Multiple games against some of the best players in teh world.

My reads are like 80% accurate, just right off the bat.

I also think jumping on Titus late, is scummy in itself. Even ignoring camel coming in right after, Firebringer jumped on second to last.
Another "dirty trick" in wagon analysis is that the people who jump on last, or switch late are mafia. Again, a hard-and-fast trick that doesnt always apply, but if you just believe in it, you find it working out the majority of the time.

---

Anyway, you are right that you and andres could both be town through my theory. That is why there was 1 mafia in the pool of four with Ydrasse/JJH/Andres/Fire. I just spent time and determined you are the most likely mafia, cutting out all the bullshit noise.

It is unlikely you are BOTH mafia though, so if you flip town, then Andres is 100% mafia and we pin him tomorrow. He most likely leaves today though so whatever.

[Lazy Shirou]

did u guys know that before pikachu, they were considering making jigglypuff the series mascot?

[gob]

It doesn't really matter because none of you will believe me or understand it anyway.

I will probably just use this, and keep it to myself and make up dumb reasoning in later games.

Your reasoning has literally been in use on this site since 2004. Here's a quick 2007 link for fun.

It is not novel. Players on this website learn about it during their first game. Players at this table do not rely on it exclusively for a reason. They are extremely skeptical of your use because they have learned the limitations of it over time. One of the most common errors is failing to appreciate basic conditional probability, which is that when you chain assumptions on the basis that they are

probably true

together, the final conclusion becomes significantly less likely. Your analysis is riddled with these unsound assumptions chained together, which is why everyone thinks it's awful.

It's funny because there are actually so little limitations with wagon analysis. All it does it paint the game into 1-3 worlds. (2-6 in multiball). You solve along those lines.

It's basically a FRAMEWORK where you place your reads, and the output is the winning combination of nailing the scumteam everytime.

The ISSUE with this is mafia teams that bus right out of the game (which I think is the right strategy most of the time, since it doesn't decrease the mafia's nightkilling potential [usually, in good setups it does] and it's harder to catch 1 person rather than 2 or 3). But most teams don't play that way Day 1 so it's easy pickings. This setup also basically ensures that mafia can't bus.

[Lazy Shirou]

i think they may have been on to something tbh

[gob]

did u guys know that before pikachu, they were considering making jigglypuff the series mascot?

[Lazy Shirou]

JIGALLLLYYYYYYYYY PUFFFFFFFFFFF

JIGALLYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

JIGGLYYYYYYYPUFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

[Lazy Shirou]

loved to dance to this beat when i was out with the boys in the discos

[Prism]

This pool contains a wolf, mechanically, because the mafia

have

to vote certain ways. I cannot explain exactly why

, since I didn't really learn this myself I was just told about this "life hack" so to speak.

Player who doesn't understand the theory behind wagon analysis insists it has no limitations and it is everyone else who does not understand the tool. Bold.