Mini Normal 2316 | Halloween | Endgame

[Thestatusquo]

Oh ok, I missed the JK in that list. Yeah ok they make sense.

[Enchant]

Funny theories:

N1:
Jailkeeper town

1. THS is Vig, got Jailkept. Mafia attacked usesPython.
2. THS is Vig, got Jailkept. Mafia attacked THS.
3. THS is mafia, got Jailkept. Mafia attacked ???.
4. THS is Vig, got Jailkept. Mafia holstered.

Jailkeeper mafia:
1. THS is Vig, got Jailkept. Mafia holstered.


N2:
Jailkeeper town:

1. Python jailkept. Mafia attacked Python. BlackStar mafia/Ninja exist.
2. Python jailkept. Python is mafia with 1BP and tried to kill.
3. Python jailkept. Mafia holstered.

Roleblock different matter:
1. THS are Town. Roleblocked/Jailed by mafia.
2. THS are Mafia and plainly lying.
3. THS are Town. OWER is Ascetic.

Jailkeeper mafia:
1. THS Jailkept again. Mafia holstered.


Pick your favorites, but i know who are winning.

In any cases with holsters, likelyhood of Black being mafia raises.

[Thestatusquo]

You really think black comes into today like this as scum? For what reason?

[Enchant]

Probably not.

[Thestatusquo]

so like were you just saying she was scum because you were mad or...?

[Enchant]

so like were you just saying she was scum because you were mad or...?

Nothing is 100% certain.

[Black]

I think it's probably just BlackStar here

When I got the results my first thought was I just witnessed attempted murder. I assumed Smiley was the killer so I started digging through his iso. Then he claimed with the very believable soft posts and anecdote about how he thought he might be killed over them

I wasn't expecting BlackStar to claim a protective role as well but it felt like BlackStar was biding time trying to see if Enchant could get my results out before claiming. I think it was probably easy to piece together that I would watch python, and that I wasn't going to budge until the rest of the list claimed, and so BlackStar probably felt like he couldn't lie about his target

It kinda just feels like BlackStar is frozen scum here

I also think one of the VT claims is probably lying. Not really because of mech because I'm not very good at determining what a balanced setup is, but just because it's the easiest thing for scum to fakeclaim and that's probably what I would do in this situation. My immediate worry here is OWER. It feels like he has been low-key trying to convince us it's THS instead of BlackStar

I think it could be Naerys too maybe but I'm less sure there. I think scum's plan was to keep me alive and hope they could frame me as a liar. It's risky because I get my last Watcher shot off, but now I'm essentially vanilla. Both Naerys and Enchant came into the day with the possible mindset of "let's shade Black." I think it's possible they could have actually been skeptical of my claim but if scum kept me alive then they must have thought they could misfade me at some point, and the way these two called me a liar gives me pause

I think it's pretty likely that all scum are within {BlackStar; OWER; Enchant; Naerys} with an outside chance that Annie, Roden, or Shea could be lying about their VT claim. I think these 3 are probably town though

And we still don't know why THS's tracker result on OWER failed N2 but I'm going to assume some kind of Mafia Roleblocker until we have real reason to suspect he's lying about that

[Black]

If not a Mafia RB then maybe OWER is some type of scum role that prevents themselves from being investigated/watched

[Enchant]

Both Naerys and Enchant came into the day with the possible mindset of "let's shade Black.

I only shaded you when you started massclaiming circus instead of claiming results, which is common mafia move

[Black]

Both Naerys and Enchant came into the day with the possible mindset of "let's shade Black.

I only shaded you when you started massclaiming circus instead of claiming results, which is common mafia move

You suggested I was a liar in your first post of the day...

[usesPython]

If not a Mafia RB then maybe OWER is some type of scum role that prevents themselves from being investigated/watched

Normal roles that would let you do that:

• Alien (role)
  
• Ascetic
  
• Commuter
  
• Rolestopper

[Black]

Also, THS, Smiley, and Annie all claimed before I even started posting the claim lists. The mass claim just kinda happened. I wasn't responsible for but I did help move it along

[Black]

If not a Mafia RB then maybe OWER is some type of scum role that prevents themselves from being investigated/watched

Normal roles that would let you do that:

• Alien (role)
  
• Ascetic
  
• Commuter
  
• Rolestopper

Thank you. I knew it was a thing but I didn't realize there were 4 possibilities

[Black]

Do any of these roles make sense in this setup balance-wise?

[Enchant]

Both Naerys and Enchant came into the day with the possible mindset of "let's shade Black.

I only shaded you when you started massclaiming circus instead of claiming results, which is common mafia move

You suggested I was a liar in your first post of the day...

It was for Hu Tao.

[usesPython]

Do any of these roles make sense in this setup balance-wise?

I think if there's Ascetic or Commuter there'd still need to be another maf PR to deal with the amount of protectives we have. Alien by itself is a possibility and targeting either OWER or THS would explain the N2 results. Rolestopper wouldn't address the protectives and doesn't really do anything in the setup so probably not.

Most likely we're looking at either Roleblocker targeting THS or Alien targeting THS/OWER

[usesPython]

Having OWER Ascetic as like a side thing while he also has an active role is also possible too actually

[Enchant]

I don't remember seeing commuter.

Like... Ever.

[Black]

Enchant if you're not going to claim then do you at least have a read on the situation, or on BlackStar or OWER?

[Enchant]

I find likelyhood of mafia skipping kill twice for amusement is like 1% (but possible). So
Jailkeeper must be town aligned and stopped one kill at minimum.

Naturally, BlackJack and/or Python should go, unless you build ninja theories.
Python less likely mafia, especially considering acting previous day.

[Enchant]

There's possibility mafia attacked JOAT N1, got screwed by jailkeeper, then killed someone else, while roleblocking THS instead.

[Roden]

VOTE: Blackstar

[Enchant]

I personally would risking to not kill watcher.

... But attacking bulletproof claim unless i already attacked them before, that's not something i would do. Why if i can always just kill watcher?
Or why if i have roleblock i just... Don't roleblock you?

... Hm. Maybe it points at Python even more, because you can't be saved. Mafia didn't bother to roleblock you but roleblocked THS. Maybe they didn't expect you live.

Or your claim is bogus, but likelyhood again is 1%.


That's why i advocate for both with Black first.

[Enchant]

BlackJack*

Similar names moment.

[usesPython]

I personally would risking to not kill watcher.

... But attacking bulletproof claim unless i already attacked them before, that's not something i would do. Why if i can always just kill watcher?
Or why if i have roleblock i just... Don't roleblock you?

... Hm. Maybe it points at Python even more, because you can't be saved. Mafia didn't bother to roleblock you but roleblocked THS. Maybe they didn't expect you live.

Or your claim is bogus, but likelyhood again is 1%.


That's why i advocate for both with Black first.

If maf is shooting us it means they shot us N1 and again N2, and ignoring the Watcher RB to try to RB another PR under the assumption that they're not gonna be watching the BP claim isn't that crazy imo