Mini Normal 2316 | Halloween | Endgame

[Naerys]

No, he wasnt.

[SmileyDude1]

We know via the claimed actions night 2 that the no kill had to have something to do with Python. Given Black's watcher result, there is mafia in myself/Blackstar/usesPython (unless there's a ninja but I don't think that's likely given the only claimed action investigatives are 1-shot and 2-shot+can be freely killed at any time respectively).

I jailed python night 2 because I thought it would give me the most info about what happened night 1 assuming mafia didn't go for the safe kill in Black. My thinking being that if scum kill got blocked by usesPython's BP night 1 then scum might try to shoot them again night 2 thinking the bulletproof was the only source of protection out there.

Out of usesPython/Blackstar, I feel like usesPython are more likely to be town here. Looking back at yesterday, I struggle to see scum in usesPython's position electing to commit a BP claim in order to power through a Hu Tao Mislim there (Keep in mind they fullclaimed after Hu Tao retracted the doctor claim. If they were trying to save OWER they could've just pushed Hu Tao's retraction without claiming anything there). I also am skeptical of the idea that a team with scum!Python on it has Python perform the kill given the slot was a major contributor to pushing the mislim through and thus might be more likely to draw the eye of town power roles (would say i'm more confident on this second point then the first one).

Through PoE I think it's just Blackstar here. Consider my vote spiritually there, but I don't want to end day yet until we figure out a plan with our night actions at least.

[SmileyDude1]

-SNIP-
Out of usesPython/Blackstar, I feel like usesPython are more likely to be town here. Looking back at yesterday, I struggle to see scum in usesPython's position electing to commit a BP claim in order to power through a Hu Tao Mislim there (Keep in mind they fullclaimed after Hu Tao retracted the doctor claim. If they were trying to save OWER they could've just pushed Hu Tao's retraction without claiming anything there). I also am skeptical of the idea that a team with scum!Python on it has Python perform the kill given the slot was a major contributor to pushing the mislim through and thus might be more likely to draw the eye of town power roles (would say i'm more confident on this second point then the first one).
-SNIP-

Would like some additional input on this though. You guys seeing what I see here?

[BlackStar]

I'm town and your claim of jailkeeper seems legit. If we can also believe in Black's results from N2, then it seems like the only 2 possible answers for why there was no kill last night are either

a) Python is scum

or

b) The scum team chose not to kill anyone to make us lim whoever got jailed.

It seems unlikely that they would choose to go a second night without getting a kill, so option A has to be the asnwer.

[SmileyDude1]

Will also say that I feel my role and Black's role fit well together in context to the setup (Black being Macho effectively makes my role a neg utility towards them. It just feels right to me from a setup standpoint) and I'm inclined to townlock her for it (helps that I vibe with her play as well).

[SmileyDude1]

I'm town and your claim of jailkeeper seems legit. If we can also believe in Black's results from N2, then it seems like the only 2 possible answers for why there was no kill last night are either

a) Python is scum

or

b) The scum team chose not to kill anyone to make us lim whoever got jailed.

It seems unlikely that they would choose to go a second night without getting a kill, so option A has to be the asnwer.

Thoughts on 1802.

Also can you explain why you chose the targets you did?

[BlackStar]

I'm town and your claim of jailkeeper seems legit. If we can also believe in Black's results from N2, then it seems like the only 2 possible answers for why there was no kill last night are either

a) Python is scum

or

b) The scum team chose not to kill anyone to make us lim whoever got jailed.

It seems unlikely that they would choose to go a second night without getting a kill, so option A has to be the asnwer.

Thoughts on 1802.

Also can you explain why you chose the targets you did?

Most people were town reading Python. I don't think there was much risk in them carrying out the kill.

I just chose people who seemed to be town read by a lot of people.

[TheHoldSteady]

-SNIP-
Out of usesPython/Blackstar, I feel like usesPython are more likely to be town here. Looking back at yesterday, I struggle to see scum in usesPython's position electing to commit a BP claim in order to power through a Hu Tao Mislim there (Keep in mind they fullclaimed after Hu Tao retracted the doctor claim. If they were trying to save OWER they could've just pushed Hu Tao's retraction without claiming anything there). I also am skeptical of the idea that a team with scum!Python on it has Python perform the kill given the slot was a major contributor to pushing the mislim through and thus might be more likely to draw the eye of town power roles (would say i'm more confident on this second point then the first one).
-SNIP-

Would like some additional input on this though. You guys seeing what I see here?

Let me ask you this: at the end of gamestate yesterday, would you have considered Python to be a deep scum? Or at the very least, a slot with little suspicion on them? Because that's the best argument, at least thinking more mechanically, that Python would be town; deeper scum generally don't put themselves out there to be found by town PRs. I tracked Outworld specifically because they were closer to being eliminated and thus were more likely to show up on pr reports.

[TheHoldSteady]

I'm town and your claim of jailkeeper seems legit. If we can also believe in Black's results from N2, then it seems like the only 2 possible answers for why there was no kill last night are either

a) Python is scum

or

b) The scum team chose not to kill anyone to make us lim whoever got jailed.

It seems unlikely that they would choose to go a second night without getting a kill, so option A has to be the asnwer.

Why am I not a possibility for scum FYPOV?

[BlackStar]

I'm town and your claim of jailkeeper seems legit. If we can also believe in Black's results from N2, then it seems like the only 2 possible answers for why there was no kill last night are either

a) Python is scum

or

b) The scum team chose not to kill anyone to make us lim whoever got jailed.

It seems unlikely that they would choose to go a second night without getting a kill, so option A has to be the asnwer.

Why am I not a possibility for scum FYPOV?

When you claimed, I immediately assumed that you were lying because I would be dead if you tried to shoot thestatusquo. I wanted to claim right after that, but I decided to wait and see if somebody claimed to be a doctor or something like that because that could potentially clear you. Then Smiley said that he jailed you and it made sense that I was still alive.

I guess it is possible that you're also scum and Smiley got lucky with targeting scum both nights

[SmileyDude1]

-SNIP-
Out of usesPython/Blackstar, I feel like usesPython are more likely to be town here. Looking back at yesterday, I struggle to see scum in usesPython's position electing to commit a BP claim in order to power through a Hu Tao Mislim there (Keep in mind they fullclaimed after Hu Tao retracted the doctor claim. If they were trying to save OWER they could've just pushed Hu Tao's retraction without claiming anything there). I also am skeptical of the idea that a team with scum!Python on it has Python perform the kill given the slot was a major contributor to pushing the mislim through and thus might be more likely to draw the eye of town power roles (would say i'm more confident on this second point then the first one).
-SNIP-

Would like some additional input on this though. You guys seeing what I see here?

Let me ask you this: at the end of gamestate yesterday, would you have considered Python to be a deep scum? Or at the very least, a slot with little suspicion on them? Because that's the best argument, at least thinking more mechanically, that Python would be town; deeper scum generally don't put themselves out there to be found by town PRs. I tracked Outworld specifically because they were closer to being eliminated and thus were more likely to show up on pr reports.

I would say that Python matched that description before the end of yesterday yes. It's weird, because in my view Python was probs one of the less suspected players before the Hu Tao push, though I think the green flip likely would've resulted in the slot being more suspected. If I had to postulate, i'd say they felt like they're somewhere in the middle in regards to suspicion.

Question for you? If we were to assume Scum!Python, who would you say the partners are right now? Depending on the composition of the scum team a hypothetical scum!Python might've been scum's best chance to endgame going into night 2 (or at least be an alternative option in case the "endgamer" of the group falters) and i'm not sure scum risks having them perform the kill in that case when there's reason to believe that power roles could be on them.

[Naerys]

UNVOTE: BlackStar
actually starting to believe its better to go after those so called vanilla towns

[Roden]

What do you think happened last night, Naerys?

[Enchant]

I guess i need to defend self against these undoubtfully unreasonable accusations on obvious townie. Which is me by the way!

Some people may think that only

mafia

organised criminals vote back, but that's untrue, i am simple townie fearing for my life and innocence!

VOTE: Dragon

VOTE: TheHoldSteady

VOTE: SmileyDude1

No one finds this one suspicious? By suspicious i mean in "Not Townie Way". I am townie so i know how townie could act!

VOTE: Black

VOTE: Wartortle

VOTE: Black

Shrug.

VOTE: Smile

VOTE: OutWorldER

VOTE: SmileyDude1

Amogus

VOTE: Hu Tao

E-1.

haha i am bad

[Enchant]

Surprisingly... There is reason to elim outside.

11 players, 3 mafias.

One mafia at Smiley/BlackJack/Python.

8 players, 2 mafias.

I am town.

7 players, 2 mafias

Black probably untouchable and town anyway.

6 players, 2 mafias.

So we have roughly 1/3 chances. And then mafia will be forced to kill PRs and PRs will need to explain why BG didn't protect jailkeeper/whatever really and etc.

[usesPython]

Surprisingly... There is reason to elim outside.

11 players, 3 mafias.

One mafia at Smiley/BlackJack/Python.

8 players, 2 mafias.

I am town.

7 players, 2 mafias

Black probably untouchable and town anyway.

6 players, 2 mafias.

So we have roughly 1/3 chances. And then mafia will be forced to kill PRs and PRs will need to explain why BG didn't protect jailkeeper/whatever really and etc.

Your mech is wrong. In the Smiley/BlackStar/Python group assuming Black is real it means Smiley didn't do the kill since otherwise BlackStar would be dead

[usesPython]

haha i am bad

The trick is to never check your own votes

[Enchant]

Mafia can skip kills surprisingly.

[usesPython]

Mafia can skip kills surprisingly.

Why would maf holster here? It forces them to survive an extra day since it brings the game from evens to odds

[Enchant]

Mafia can skip kills surprisingly.

Why would maf holster here?

idk maybe they are dumb or they roll dice for actions

[Enchant]

Need to admit if there's skip then this dumb action is in fact genius.

[Black]

I still think we should go BlackStar but I'm not opposed to going OWER

[usesPython]

What do you think happened last night, Naerys?

From an external perspective the only mechanical explanations for the missing nightkill are:

1. scum!BlackStar attacks town!Python, fails due to town!Smiley Jailkeep
   
2. scum!Python attacks someone, fails due to town!Smiley Jailkeep
   
3. Scum holster (Doesn't explain why scum would holster on evens)
   
4. Ninja attacks town!Python (Would be weird to have a Ninja just to counter 2-Shot Watcher and 1-Shot Tracker, especially since those are towns only investigative roles)
   
5. Scum attacks town!Python and scum!Black lies about watcher results (Would be weird to have 1-Shot Tracker be towns only investigative role)
   
6. town!Enchant is secretly a PR and stopped the nightkill and also kept quiet for some reason (Good one)

[usesPython]

I still think we should go BlackStar but I'm not opposed to going OWER

We'd prefer BlackStar for obvious reasons but OWER isn't a bad lim either

[Black]

UNVOTE: BlackStar
actually starting to believe its better to go after those so called vanilla towns

I still think this is scum if BlackStar flips red