Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nyeh!

[Celebloki]

Sorry, it's been a busy day for me and the next few days will be busy as I will be hosting some house guests and hosting a friendsgiving dinner in a couple days. I think I should still be able to keep up and post here and there. I'm finding so far in my first read-throughs I have a lot of town reads. I need to go back and maybe pay attention to the slots I haven't town read and try to be a bit more scrutinizing.

[Gamma Emerald]

I had a tell on her that worked pretty well for a while, but after I got it wrong in Radio Buzz I told her what it was and I think she is now more aware of it. If I remember right, she was one to overuse phrases like "honestly" or "genuinely" as scum and I could just tell the difference between when she did it as scum versus town.

Now there is no "secret" like there was for a while, now it's more that I have a lot of experience with her and I feel that if she does something out of order I would notice.

In my experience Gamma can get heated/emotional in a way that can easily be mistaken as scum AtE but it is NAI.

I've also been off site for a year or two so my experience may be outdated but like I said I feel prepared for scum!Gamma

It was actually a normal game where the tell failed. Or at least that’s where you revealed it. And wrt getting heated, I am trying to dial some of that back in general, but if I get annoyed I sometimes backslide into bad habits.

[Thomith]

When rereading I just realised something I did not notice before.

I fully only thought there were like 2 or 3 of us questioning Puff about post 30, but on a reread it seems like it was over half the playerlist in the entire game that was questioning the slot (Me, Gamma Emerald, Cobblerfone, Elements, Mizuki, Kyouko) either directly on post 30, or on other things after it became clear that the Puff slot had gained a lot of attention. That definitely gives me vibes that Puff could very feasibly just be Town, and there was at least one Mafia jumping on that seemingly easy train of thought/suspicion.
Again this also makes me more tempted to read Elements as Town currently, as it did look like they were trying to avoid this happening, at least to me.

[Elements]

@mod

I'll be v/la 21st-23rd inclusive

[Alianna]

@mod

I'll be v/la 21st-23rd inclusive

Noted.

[Elements]

I'm liking tomith for town

[Elements]

VOTE: gamma

[Elements]

Elements I’m slightly concerned about. I feel like the first 3 CrabApple posts are fake new-ness on reflection.

someone said something similar, but I joined as an alt because I wanted to try a different play style to usual and didn't want people to try meta read my playstyle shift

[Celebloki]

@Mod: I will be V/LA until Tuesday.

I'll probably not be able to devote much time to play until Tuesday.

[Alianna]

@Mod: I will be V/LA until Tuesday.

I'll probably not be able to devote much time to play until Tuesday.

Noted.

[Gamma Emerald]

Elements I’m slightly concerned about. I feel like the first 3 CrabApple posts are fake new-ness on reflection.

someone said something similar, but I joined as an alt because I wanted to try a different play style to usual and didn't want people to try meta read my playstyle shift

Okay
UNVOTE:

[Mizuki]

When rereading I just realised something I did not notice before.

I fully only thought there were like 2 or 3 of us questioning Puff about post 30, but on a reread it seems like it was over half the playerlist in the entire game that was questioning the slot (Me, Gamma Emerald, Cobblerfone, Elements, Mizuki, Kyouko) either directly on post 30, or on other things after it became clear that the Puff slot had gained a lot of attention. That definitely gives me vibes that Puff could very feasibly just be Town, and there was at least one Mafia jumping on that seemingly easy train of thought/suspicion.
Again this also makes me more tempted to read Elements as Town currently, as it did look like they were trying to avoid this happening, at least to me.

I can agree with Puff being town since it seems like they had a genuine intent to get the game moving in a way that very much seemed agenda-agnostic and I do like this train of thought. I went back through the ISO's of the players you mentioned (except myself) and my brain really only produces Cobb as an answer for Maf.

IDK, I feel like too many people seem townie at the moment, sort of inclined to believe that Maf is in one of the V/LA's (Cele, Shaddowez). I guess Gamma hasn't really pinged me one way or the other but I always find her hard to read.

[Cobblerfone]

I'll quote Gamma but this is as much as for Thomith's and Mizuki's benefit as well as my own. Perhaps I haven't been clear in my expressing my reasoning. Part of the problem is that there's a certain ancient history blog I've gotten into reading that really encourages Bayesian reasoning

There’s a 7/9 chance of anyone being town? That statistic argument would just paralyze any action if taken to a logical extreme.

These odds aren’t really sensical. The odds of a town player voting mafia should be stated as 2/8 since if trying to hit mafia, they would never vote themselves.
Also, I think this argument just assumes too much. You could apply a statistical argument to any slot to call it town.
This results in me thinking there has to be something more to your thinking which is where the kyouko SR idea came in. It didn’t help you suggested bussing out of nowhere.

True I forgot about no one voting for themself (well, it

is

RVS, so someone might vote for themself, but such a vote can hardly be called "random".)

Kyouko's vote was the first RVS vote and it was made in the second post. Made with no information from anyone. It was therefore completely arbitrary, IF Kyouko is town. An arbitrary (functionally random) vote has a 6/8 chance of being town. Admittedly 3/4 is a bit less comfy than 7/9, but for a day-one assessment when combined with somewhat town-ish responses, it's probably good enough. Especially since my vote was also somewhat arbitrary.

Where the idea of Kyouko being mafia comes from is in the idea of Puff being mafia. If Kyouko is town and Puff is mafia, that's only a 1/4 chance (admittedly it sounded more impressive at 2/9). But if Kyouko is mafia, then the odds of Kyouko voting mafia with no information is 100% because mafia know who mafia is and therefore

cannot

randomly vote mafia. Although it has occurred to me that I have forgotten to take prior odds into account So if Puff flipped mafia:

The prior odds of Kyouko being town given that Puff is mafia is 7/8. The prior odds of Kyouko being mafia given that Puff is Mafia is 1/8 (I'm not sure I've done this right).

The odds of Kyouko voting mafia as town are 7/8 * 2/8 = 14/64

The odds of Kyouko voting mafia as mafia are 1/8 * 8/8 = 8/64

Hmm... It seems my original reasoning is faulty. The ratio of the odds means Kyouko is no more likelier to be mafia than town even if Puff is mafia. I stand corrected. I think. I am amateur at this. Of course, since Kyouko was giving townvibes anyway that was making me think Puff was probably town. But now I'm not sure, 1/4 isn't exactly miraculous. Ugh. I think the numbers 2/9 were making me two confident because 2 feels "small" (after all it's only one more than one) and 9 feels "big" (after all it's only one fewer than 10). I still think Puff is probably town because my vote was mostly arbitrary though admittedly not "no information" since I was one of the last to confirm and several RVS votes had been made. Not very good information, but still not a completely blank slate. So that random event combined with Kyouko's random event, because I think she's town, means Puff is probably town. Especially because their posts haven't been outright scummy.

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

VOTE: gamma

What changed your mind on her between these two posts?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The odds of Kyouko voting mafia as town are 7/8 * 2/8 = 14/64

The odds of Kyouko voting mafia as mafia are 1/8 * 8/8 = 8/64

Here are the numbers from an outsider's town POV on my vote (or anyone's random vote) since you keep getting them wrong

Town!Kyouko votes Town!Puff: 6/8 * 5/7 = 30/56.
Town!Kyouko votes scum!Puff: 6/8 * 2/7 = 12/56.
Scum!Kyouko: 2/8 = 14/56

Dont think breaking down the numbers on Puff's alignment are relevant if I'm scum

[Elements]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

VOTE: gamma

What changed your mind on her between these two posts?

Skimmed Gamma's iso from open 891 and then reread its iso from this game

[Puffalicious]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

Agreed.

VOTE: Elements

Since Gamma is on this.

[Elements]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

Agreed.

VOTE: Elements

Since Gamma is on this.

gamma is no longer on this

[Gamma Emerald]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

VOTE: gamma

What changed your mind on her between these two posts?

Skimmed Gamma's iso from open 891 and then reread its iso from this game

Okay. What similarities did you see?

[Gamma Emerald]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

Agreed.

VOTE: Elements

Since Gamma is on this.

This feels spicy btw

[Thomith]

@Cobblerfone, we have your thoughts on Kyouko and Puff, what are your thoughts on the other players in this game?

[Elements]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

VOTE: gamma

What changed your mind on her between these two posts?

Skimmed Gamma's iso from open 891 and then reread its iso from this game

Okay. What similarities did you see?

You felt a lot more "look at me! I'm here to have fun!" In your entrance than I remember you feeling in other games I've played with you

[Gamma Emerald]

okay

[DragonEater70]

/

[DragonEater70]

//