Mini #704: Hunchback of Notre Dame, Game Over


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Post Post #400 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2008 2:22 am

Post by destructor »

ClockworkRuse wrote:Why am I claiming? Why isn't CarnCarn claiming as well?
Because at the time you were most likely to be lynched at deadline. No one had said they were going to vote for CC while some had said they'd switch to you.


I'm seriously confused right now. Urz has done more in like two days than Caboose did all game. Caboose didn't just lurk, he flaked. I don't have the energy to go and find out if he's ever dropped out of a game like this before so I don't know if it's telling either way. So...

Unvote



I still don't think CR is scum. CC's irrational pointing of fingers still seems like the scummiest thing I can pick up so far this game.

Vote: CarnCarn


I realise I'm now the only person voting him and could switch to... someone to ensure a lynch but I don't feel strongly about anyone but CC right now. Nat's posts weren't great, and even though I didn't feel like he was being insidious, his is the only other lynch I can see myself supporting.

I don't know what to make of the rofl votes. I don't know why he's seemed to ignore pretty much every question I've asked him so far this game either. On entering the game, he named CR, Battousai and myself as scum but never really explained this when I asked. He hasn't answered my recent questions in 354. My case on CC is largely based on the BS attack he made against rofl and that's what's stopped me from probing around here more. He sort of explained himself on CC in 364 but without any reference to the actual case on CC. I understand what he was saying in c), but was expecting a more pragmatic answer.


Also, I'm having a look at the setup rules again and remembered these:
2.) There are nine members of the town. The town will have one [1], two [2], or three [3] of the following roles in any combination: Cop (Sane or Insane), 1-Shot Vigilante, 2-Shot Role-Blocker, Doctor. This means that having three town players with the exact same power role is possible.

...

4.) Deaths will always be revealed as either (a) “Town,” or (b) “Mafia.” The traitor death will always be revealed as “Town.”
I assume that this means there are no role reveals, only alignment. Given that there are at most 3 town power roles I think it's important that anyone who is on the brink of being lynched claim and that a refusal to do so is at the least anti-town. I say it's important that we get claims because it reduces the chances of scum successfully fake-claiming - if more than 3 players claim powers, we can know for a fact that at least one is scum.
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Post Post #401 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2008 8:12 am

Post by roflcopter »

ThAdmiral wrote:
roflcopter wrote:god this deadline/no deadline/deadline/no deadline dance is killing me
If this isn't scum frustrated because they just missed out on lynching a town (so they could use their nightkill), then I don't know what is.

it's not too late to set up a rofl wagon is it?

unvote, vote: roflcopter
honestly, admiral, you've done fuckall this game, so why don't you just go back to being quiet in a corner instead of concocting ridiculously weak accusations?
Battousai wrote:EBWOP:
Vote: Roflcopter
, until explains why he wants to lynch Nat or Caboose over CWR now.
ok, when did i ever say i wanted to lynch nat or caboose
over
cwr? if you read my posts, you'll see i said that i would be willing to lynch them at deadline if a cwr lynch was not possible, but cwr is still my priority.
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Post Post #402 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2008 12:27 pm

Post by Battousai »

Rofl: Looking back at those posts again, I realize that you meant that you would be willing ot lynch Nat or Caboose if a CWR lynch was not possible. My mistake.

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Post Post #403 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2008 12:51 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Day One: Vote Count #18


3 ClockworkRuse (ortolan, roflcopter, Urzassedatives)
3 Urzassedatives (Machiavellian-Mafia, Natirasha, ClockworkRuse)
2 Natirasha (Axelrod, Mizzy)
1 CarnCarn (destructor)
1 roflcopter (ThAdmiral)

With
12
alive, it takes
7
to lynch, and
4
to lynch at deadline. Deadline December 14, 9:59 pm CDT.

Not Voting – 2 – Battousai, CarnCarn
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Post Post #404 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2008 3:42 pm

Post by Machiavellian-Mafia »

Unvote: Urzassedatives
, while you are getting the pass today, it doesn't mean you have a clean slate with Caboose wiped off when I evaluate you in later days.

I'm now essentially at step 2 of my previously mentioned deadline plan, so
Vote: Natirasha
The end justifies the means.
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Post Post #405 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2008 5:53 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

urza, what are your thoughts on a Nat lynch?
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Post Post #406 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2008 5:59 pm

Post by Urzassedatives »

At Urz, I’m seriously not going to defend myself against the same points over and over again. Finish reading please than take a look at your vote. I have admitted since; a.) I was tunneling Ort. b.) My vote on Ort was a pressure vote originally, I didn’t like how he reacted to it, and that I thought the pressure on the Ramus wagon was adequate even if he said it wasn’t. c.) I was definitely tunneling Ort. Looking over it, was some seriously horrible play on my part. I was the VI for a good portion of the game, but I don’t plan on continuing that bad streak.
I did finish reading. Your responses don't mean jack. First of all, while I am attacking the same things about you, I am attacking them in a different manner. I have presented psychological warrants for why these posts make you more likely a scum player than a town player. Please respond to those if you want to remove my vote from you. Tunneling on a player has nothing to do with how you psychologically approach their posts. Theoretically, even when you think a player is scum, you are interested in determining if that is true or not. You did not do that.
roflcopter wrote:and i'm glad the replacement cleared up the caboose issue so succinctly, urzas is obvtown


And why is that?
Second. Why is that?]
Urzassedatives wrote:Heyo, Mizzy.

Care to respond and/or comment on the COMPLETELY NEW perspective of the game I just gave, rather than taking a cop out and continuing your petty bickering with clockwork ruse.

Why are you arguing with him, anyway? He's pretty much obv scum.
And now we have another rofl, calling me obv scum before I even get a chance to respond?

And why does Mizzy have to respond to your “completely new” perspective to the game?

And I say “completely new” because I’ve seen most of it from rofl.
Please do not insult me. You didn't hear anything of what I said from ROFL. He's a pretty bad player. He may have been also attacking you, and he may have been attacking the same things you did. But he certainly did not provide REASONING for why the things you did are scummy. The psychological tell I raise is something which no one else this game has so much as THOUGHT about.
”Urzassedatives” wrote:
On the other hand, you have Clockwork, who has posted a shit ton, and you are not going to get a better read on, probably. You already have him pegged as scummy, and his posting is not going to give you any better opportunities to read him. He's not changing.
Well, if you exclude Ort. Shouldn’t you not be appealing to emotion to get my lynched, if your case is so strong and I am such obv scum?[/quote]
This is a pretty harsh misconstruction of my point. I am saying EVEN IF you don't buy the case, you want to lynch the player you have a more substantive read on, given two equally scummy reads. Note, I am not saying that our roles ARE equally scummy, but rather than IF HE DOES THINK THAT, he should lynch the player with more readable posts, because theoretically he will get a stronger read with more time with the other player. Please point out where I appeal to emotion?

I didn’t want to quote the entire post, but the more I read it…;
Urzassedatives wrote:Right, but you're missing my point about me. The main problems with caboose seem to be a) He's a pretty bad player, and b) he was basically inactive the whole game. Going off of that, you can't have a really strong read on him

(I mean, I don't think he strategically planned ANYTHING this game, he doesn't seem like a good schemer, of course I have the insight of knowing his role which makes me KNOW he's not a very strategic person, but I digress)


You're probably very annoyed at him, which might be clouding your judgment as to whether or not you think he's scum.
Look at the facts, there really isn't enough to base even a barebones read off of him. I posted more game relevant analysis in my first post in this game than he did the whole rest of day one.

The point is, keeping me around and reading what I do tomorrow will be a much better indicator of the alignment of this role than reading cabooses play today.
It's common sense, I give you more interactions with more players, as well as more posting frequency.

On the other hand, you have Clockwork, who has posted a shit ton, and you are not going to get a better read on, probably. You already have him pegged as scummy, and his posting is not going to give you any better opportunities to read him. He's not changing.

A simple calculation of accuracy[/u tells you that he's a way better lynch for today, even IF you disregard the post I made which lays out two pretty damn good d1 reasons as to why he's obv scum.

That's my argument.
You get a WAY more accurate read on my role by keeping me around, but the same isn't true on CR.
So even if you find him and Caboose equally scummy (which I find highly unlikely) He's the better lynch.
Your logic is that “Because you can get a better read on me with me around, and you can’t get one on Clock, lynch him and look at me later.”
The bolded will prove that.
No, again. Misconstruction of my argument. ROFL presented a false dichotomy, you or me. He said he found both of us scummy. That is the assumptions he is working with, they are flawed, but if we can't get him to change his flawed assumptions, then we have to reason with him using them (Something you completely neglected to notice because it doesn't help your attack on me is that I TOLD ROFL THAT HIS POST WAS A FALSE DICHOTOMY and I TOLD HIM TO LOOK AT TWO SEPERATE TARGETS BESIDES YOU AND ME who I thought merited attention. Such an inconvenient thing, facts. )
Working under those two assumptions that I just outlined that he had in his head (that we are equally scummy and that he has to vote for one of us), it is absolutely the correct play to lynch you rather than me. This is because he has more reason to believe that his read on you is accurate than he does to believe that his read on me is accurate. This is because my replacee dd not interact this game, and you have. The reason you will not "Change" per se, is that because your level of interaction with him in previous days will either remain the same or go down, whereas his interaction with this role will go up significantly, that means that his read on this role will be much more strengthened by reading me tomorrow then his read on you will be strengthened by reading you tommorow.

Remember, however, that this argument is only if you accept his premises, which I don't really, but if he has them, and wont change them, there's very little I can do to change that.

Caboose’s play should not just be thrown out because he’s “a poor player.” He had plenty of time to be a “poor player” in other games, so why did he ignore this one? It wasn’t like he wouldn’t have had anything to comment on, he was under scrutiny the last time he decided to disappear. Obviously, this is going into WIFOM. But it needs to be pointed out that we can’t just excuse his play as him being a “bad player.”
Actually what you cite there is a reason why we SHOULD not look to his poor play for indication of alignment. The fact that he has done the same thing in multiple games and of both alignments demonstrates that poor play is not something which is indicative of cabooses alignment, and is therefore not a valid reason to vote him insofar as he's no longer in the game and you don't want to policy lynch him
Look at the underlined, “A simple calculation of accuracy”, do you mind explain what you mean by that?
This is because he has more reason to believe that his read on you is accurate than he does to believe that his read on me is accurate. This is because my replacee dd not interact this game, and you have. The reason you will not "Change" per se, is that because your level of interaction with him in previous days will either remain the same or go down, whereas his interaction with this role will go up significantly, that means that his read on this role will be much more strengthened by reading me tomorrow then his read on you will be strengthened by reading you tommorow.

I post the same thing I just wrote. It answers both questions.

How do you call me backing off my tunneling not changing? Have I not made more reasonable cases lately? You are attacking me because I made bad play and I tunneled, both of which I’ve admitted to and kicked myself for. What would the benefits of attacking Ort like I did be for scum?

Because thats not the sense I'm using "change" in. I'm using it to refer to your level of interaction with him. It is not going to get significantly different from your actions so far in terms of quantity of play to read. Whereas this roles play increases dynamically.
Italics is basically WIFOM. Unless you can prove you have a reasonable meta to back that statement up.
Well first off, I was not making an argument there, as you can see, I didn't try to prove any point with that statement, was just musing. I concede that it's basically wifom, but would point out that you can make the same judgment I have. Do you really think Caboose was scheming, based on his play?
I’m starting to run out of font styles to use. D=
I'm sorry. :(
Anyways, you state;
You're probably very annoyed at him, which might be clouding your judgment as to whether or not you think he's scum.


Do you think that the town would be willing to lynch on mere annoyance alone? What do you take of my thoughts of him yesterday when I voted him?
Maybe not the town, but remember I was talking to an individual player there, and I have definitely seen individual players keep their votes on people just out of annoyance. Also, what do you think policy lynches for poor play are for? People lynch lurkers because lurking annoys them.
There is also a load of false dichotomy in here.
Like I just said above, I think you're the best lynch completely independently of that logic. But secondly, the context of my post was "If carncarn will not stop his false dichotomy. I pretty clearly told him NOT to limit himself to two choices, and pointed out Mizzy and ROFLcotor. The fact that you "missed" this is convenient. I don't really buy, considering the fact that you went over that last post of mine with a fine tooth comb. Theres no way in my mind that you could have missed that I told him to not limit himself to two choices, and then went on to say "BUT IF YOU DO" So
FOS: Clockwork here


I just realized that a lot of when I refer to ROFLCOPTOR here I actually meant to refer to carncarn, and I'm too lazy to go back and fix it. You'll figure it out "Carn carns assumptions" etc, not "roflcoptors assumptions.
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Post Post #407 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2008 6:01 pm

Post by Urzassedatives »

Carn carn, I'm willing to switch to nat at deadline, but I would MUCH MUCH MUCH prefer a clockwork lynch, because like I said, my read on urziel was conflicted.
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Post Post #408 (ISO) » Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:22 am

Post by Mizzy »

Ugh, sorry guys, we got called into work for both today and tomorrow, so my posting is going to be limited for a couple days.
PokerFace: "I need to play with [Ether] or Mizzy more often."
Nightson: "I'd be more then happy to play with Ether and Mizzy. At the same time."

Muerrto: "Mizzy is my hero and I wanna be like her when I grow younger <3"
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Post Post #409 (ISO) » Sat Dec 13, 2008 9:07 am

Post by CarnCarn »

Reading through Urza and I've got some questions/comments:
Urza wrote:On my shit list are Uriel, but this is one I'm having a little difficulty with in my mind, because the things I am picking up on are either indicative of scum who knows what they are doing, or town who has no clue. He attacks things that appear out of the ordinary, without giving justification for whether or not they are SCUMMY. Remember, scummy has a very definite meaning. It is an action that a scum player is more likely to do than a town player. Therefore to see uriel jumping on those things, to me, is indicative of one or two things.
I am currently in an ongoing Newbie where uriel also flaked. Could be scum, but also very n00b player in general.
Urza wrote:Self voting is stupid as hell, but it provides no insight at all into the alignment of a player. None whatsoever. Zip. Nada. Zilch. There is no real motivation for scum to do it that is separate from town motivation to do it, and therefore it is the definition of a NULL TELL.
Scum could try the same gambit to trap townsfolk into doing something that, on the surface, looks scummy.
Urza wrote:Now, you might be saying to yourself "Well, a lot of people attacked the self voter...I was one of them." and this is true, but what sets clockworks actions apart is how he doesn't directly attack either player for any one thing. He attacks Orto for what clockwork did, and by proxy attacks the self voter. He clearly thinks what the self voter has done is "scummy" but doesn't vote him. This is not only dumb because in order for orto to be scum in the way clockwork is presenting the game, the self voter has to be, and since Ortos alignment is then dependant on the self voters, and not the other way around, he should be voting the self voter, but scummy because it allows him to add more pressure to the self voter wagon without actually implicating himself by it, and also allows him to poison ortos well by accusing him of things that aren't really scummy that put him on the defensive and take him off the offensive.
Now this is seriously flawed. You conveniently choose to forget that scum try very hard to buddy with townies as a way to distance from their actual teammates. This is why defending someone can be scummy regardless of the alignment of the person being defended.
Urza wrote:Secondly, a pretty big thing I look for is when players are not honestly interested in determining alignment, but are instead just looking to win the argument. Clockworks post 152 is a perfect example of this. The mischaracterization of Ortos vote "HE ADMITS IT WAS OMGUS" is pretty ridiculous, and is not something a player interested in determining orto's alignment would say. Orto quite clearly said that he was being a tad biased, and then went on to explain the nature of the vote. Clockwork IGNORES the real justification, something that if discussed might lead to information about orto's alignment, and goes straight for the jugular with a can't miss, look what stupid things he's doing he's an idiot argument. This is telling because I think there's a pretty clear divide between what a town player would do in this situation, and what a scum player would do in this situation. Psychologically, this is a pretty damn strong tell in my book.
This is a good point. As I think I said already, I felt CR was reaching with some of the accusations against ort. However, it's not necessarily a scumtell because I know people will sometimes ask reachish questions to get reactions. Still, in this case, I see it as a negative against CR.


Urza, why do you keep saying that I presented a false dichotomy after you realized we have a deadline? I've explained already why I think the best lynch is you or CR today, yet you keep dismissing this as a false dichotomy.
Urza wrote:(I mean, I don't think he strategically planned ANYTHING this game, he doesn't seem like a good schemer, of course I have the insight of knowing his role which makes me KNOW he's not a very strategic person, but I digress)
Something just rubs me the wrong way here. Oh, maybe the suggestion that your role does clearly require strategy? But then, you say Caboose wasn't strategic at all. How exactly does knowing Caboose's role tell you that he wasn't strategic? His play is in line with careless scum, or town trying to act very hard like scum, but you say that's not strategic. So, are you saying he is careless scum?
Urza wrote:Also, what do you think policy lynches for poor play are for? People lynch lurkers because lurking annoys them.
No, people lynch lurkers because lurking helps scum.
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Post Post #410 (ISO) » Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:25 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

OK, about 4.5 hrs to deadline. I'm going to:
Vote: ClockworkRuse

Because I think he is pretty scummy and Nat hasn't done anything really scummy IMO. I actually would have voted Urza but he only has 2 votes now. If anyone adds a third vote to Urza, I would strongly consider switching to him.
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Post Post #411 (ISO) » Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:27 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Oh, also:
Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:
Unvote: Urzassedatives
, while you are getting the pass today, it doesn't mean you have a clean slate with Caboose wiped off when I evaluate you in later days.

I'm now essentially at step 2 of my previously mentioned deadline plan, so
Vote: Natirasha
M-M can you explain what made you less suspicious of Urza?

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Post Post #412 (ISO) » Sat Dec 13, 2008 1:08 pm

Post by Natirasha »

unvote, vote: CWR
I strongly disagree with the (admittedly vague) reasons behind this lynch, but I prefer to live.
Natirasha is just a vestige, it's Contessa now.
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Post Post #413 (ISO) » Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:21 pm

Post by Machiavellian-Mafia »

@CarnCarn: I think you misread the deadline by 24 hours. It should around this time tomorrow.

I unvoted Urza mainly because he just replaced in. My policy on replacements is that unless there is overwhelming evidence against the predecessor such as a cop guilty, replacements should be allowed to participate further and prove themselves.
The end justifies the means.
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Post Post #414 (ISO) » Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:01 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:@CarnCarn: I think you misread the deadline by 24 hours. It should around this time tomorrow.

I unvoted Urza mainly because he just replaced in. My policy on replacements is that unless there is overwhelming evidence against the predecessor such as a cop guilty, replacements should be allowed to participate further and prove themselves.
Oh, that's true. My vote still stands at the moment, as does my willingness to switch to an urza vote, and I'd like to see urza respond to my questions/comments.
That policy may be generally logical, but it doesn't change the scumminess of the person just because they were replaced. I can see it both ways, though.
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Post Post #415 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 2:34 am

Post by Axelrod »

I feel like I'm falling down on the job this game. I've just been too distracted to do much recently. Nat's contribution above: "I strongly disagree with this lynch, but I want to live," does not make me feel like changing my vote.

This is what I got the vote at right now:

5 ClockworkRuse (ortolan, roflcopter, Urzassedatives, CarnCarn, Natirasha)
1 Urzassedatives (ClockworkRuse)
3 Natirasha (Axelrod, Mizzy, Machiavellian-Mafia)
1 CarnCarn (destructor)
1 roflcopter (ThAdmiral)
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Post Post #416 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 3:31 am

Post by ThAdmiral »

I'd rather natirasha than cwr (and my rofl vote isn't useful), so...

unvote, vote: natirasha
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Post Post #417 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 5:56 am

Post by roflcopter »

nat's self-preservation vote is a null tell, desire not to see yourself lynched is working towards your win condition regardless of whether that win con is mafia for town.
soi soi soi

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Post Post #418 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 6:27 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Day One: Vote Count #19


5 ClockworkRuse (ortolan, roflcopter, Urzassedatives, CarnCarn, Natirasha)
4 Natirasha (Axelrod, Mizzy, , Machiavellian-Mafia, ThAdmiral)
1 CarnCarn (destructor)
1 Urzassedatives (ClockworkRuse)

With
12
alive, it takes
7
to lynch, and
4
to lynch at deadline. Deadline December 14, 9:59 pm CDT.

Not Voting – 2 – Battousai
Last edited by petroleumjelly on Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #419 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 6:46 am

Post by Machiavellian-Mafia »

Mod:
I voted for Natirasha in my Post #404.

The deadline is in less than 12 hours. CR should claim since he's the current leading vote-getter.

Mod Edit: Vote count fixed.
The end justifies the means.
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Post Post #420 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:42 am

Post by Machiavellian-Mafia »

Where the heck is everyone? Deadline is in about 6 hours!
The end justifies the means.
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Post Post #421 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:49 am

Post by CarnCarn »

I'm here, waiting for urza's answers. Especially about how knowing Caboose's role lets him know Caboose wasn't being strategic. I think I still prefer him to be the lynch but doesn't look like it will happen.
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Post Post #422 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 12:17 pm

Post by roflcopter »

my vote is in the right place
soi soi soi

wins: open 69 (townie), mini 592 (sk), mini 617 (mafia rb), open 102 (mafia lover), crackers! (doctor), mini 712 (doctor), mini 715 (townie), mini 770 (inventor), lynch all lurkers (townie), mafia 100 (mason), space mafia (neighborizer)
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Post Post #423 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 12:39 pm

Post by Natirasha »

So...dide we essentially nolynch?
Natirasha is just a vestige, it's Contessa now.
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Post Post #424 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 12:51 pm

Post by CarnCarn »

there's still about 4 hours to deadline, but as it stands, CR would be lynched.

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