Mini Normal 2316 | Halloween | Endgame

[AnimatedWiz]

It doesh't imply that if i am town i must be correct.

There are too many of us here that have voted for miselims to conclude that poor voting is not town-indicative—we pretty much all have blood on our hands.

[AnimatedWiz]

I see Enchant’s theories here making sense—I’m unsure if Naerys’s/Roden’s thoughts about Shea are correct though, as I’d more readily think OWER was the partner.

[Naerys]

I posted that Roden thought bcz i think it might be the reason they got NKed. I get that scum thought Smiley would be protected. Still, Roden did not have entirely solid town position, so they could get mislimmed. Instead scum shot them. Why?
1) Rodan said something that scum felt its threat to them
2) Scum is trying to frame THS

For me option no. 1 feels more likely.

[Dannflor]

VC 5.1

Psycho Killer

TheHoldSteady [1]:

Enchant

OutWorldER [1]:

AnimatedWizatd

Enchant [1]:

OutWorldER

Not Voting [4]:

SmileyDude1, Naerys, TheHoldSteady, Thestatusquo

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate. Day 5 ends in (expired on 2023-11-30 22:23:25).

Mod Notes:

[SmileyDude1]

THS tried to kill TSQ, failed. Then "Oh well i am Vig i shot TSQ". It's safe claim, because it aligns with visits and considering kill fail means either roleblocked or target was protected.

This plan requires someone claiming other protect to work

. Python was this someone.

Might be missing something but could you explain the bolded/italicized part? Why would the plan require someone else claiming protective?

Only theory where THS are Town are:

Mafia decided to attack THS AND when failed THEN roleblock same THS who basically selfvoted and literally WAS PROTECTED BY SOMEONE ELSE.

MAFIA ROLEBLOCKED THS? WHILE KNOWING SOMEONE ELSE DEFENDED HIM? WITHOUT EVEN DIRECTLY KNOWING ABOUT HIm BEING PR?


Bruh brah breh.

Not sure I follow. THS self-voted early day 1, there's a long span in time between then and night 2 for views to change so i'm not sure if the self-vote actually negative correlates to the idea they were roleblocked night 2. If mafia were threatened by THS, I think it makes sense to deal with him via roleblocking night 2 if the attempted kill night 1 failed, though the question would be if mafia had reason to fear THS enough to do that by the end of day 2. Might need to go back and take a look to ascertain whether that would be the case.
---
Thinking about it today, I think I no longer think THS mechanically has to be town. Like I feel like my role + Blackstar role + Black role gives town enough power

if

the scum team is triple goon (Think this town might be a bit too weak if scum have access to additional power though someone better at setup spec than me feel free to chime in here). I think I still lean town due to the interactions between THS and Python feeling non-partnered to me though I don't sense inherent holes in Enchant's case (like I look at it and I don't sense anything clearly wrong or stretchy within it)

@THS, What's your response to Enchant's theory? Where does it go wrong in your view?

Oh also, i'm probably not going to have time to post again today due to Thanksgiving. Will probs be back on some time tomorrow to finish the Python interaction scan. Until then

[Enchant]

THS tried to kill TSQ, failed. Then "Oh well i am Vig i shot TSQ". It's safe claim, because it aligns with visits and considering kill fail means either roleblocked or target was protected.

This plan requires someone claiming other protect to work

. Python was this someone.

Might be missing something but could you explain the bolded/italicized part? Why would the plan require someone else claiming protective?

Because claiming VIg when NO ONE ELSE claims successfull protect is death sentence.


For example i tell i am vig and i shot uuuuuuuuuuh for example SmileyDude1.

And someone else claims about roleblocking me. No one else claims any ability to prevent nightkills and mafia BY MIRACLE didn't kill anyone. What's closest assumption?

[Enchant]

How i see game.

Out of table:

Black - Macho 2-shot Watcher

- Killed by Mafia N3.

Spoiler: Acts

N1: Annie. No one.
N2: Python. Smiley, BlackStar.
N3: Can't act.

BlackStar - BG

- Executed 3D

Spoiler: Acts

N1: Thestatusquo
N2: usesPython

Python - Mafia Goon

- Executed D4.

Roden - VT

- Killed by Mafia N4.

Hu Tao - VT

- Executed 2D

Wartortle - VT

- Executed 1D

Enchant - ???

- Living


POE:

Smiley - Lazy JK

Spoiler: Acts

N1: THS.
N2: Python
N3: Annie
N4: Annie

THS - JOAT (Vig/Tracker/Doc)

Spoiler: Acts

N1: Vig (Thestatusquo). Fail.
N2: Track (OWER). No result.
N3: No Action
N4: Doc (Smiley).

Naerys - VT

Annie - VT

OWER - VT

Thestatusquo - VT

Mafia kills:
N1: THS tries to kill TSQ. Direct Jail.
N2: Python tries to kill Black. Direct Jail.
N3: THS kills Black.
N4: THS kills Roden.


THS>Annie>OWEN probably must win.

Start voting.

[OutWorldER]

VOTE: TheHoldSteady

i think if Enchant's going full mechsolving mode he's probably just town so fuck it. My reads have been bad all game, I'll just sheep this.

[Naerys]

hope the holiday went well for you, americans
Enchant makes interesting points. I doubt scum!enchant would risk their skin like this. THS voting Anima instead of Python was suspicious. But i am not sure if he would out their second buddy like this. I have Annie in null tier - need to think about that one some more.
VOTE: THS

[Naerys]

E-1 btw

[AnimatedWiz]

How i see game.

Out of table:

Black - Macho 2-shot Watcher

- Killed by Mafia N3.

Spoiler: Acts

N1: Annie. No one.
N2: Python. Smiley, BlackStar.
N3: Can't act.

BlackStar - BG

- Executed 3D

Spoiler: Acts

N1: Thestatusquo
N2: usesPython

Python - Mafia Goon

- Executed D4.

Roden - VT

- Killed by Mafia N4.

Hu Tao - VT

- Executed 2D

Wartortle - VT

- Executed 1D

Enchant - ???

- Living


POE:

Smiley - Lazy JK

Spoiler: Acts

N1: THS.
N2: Python
N3: Annie
N4: Annie

THS - JOAT (Vig/Tracker/Doc)

Spoiler: Acts

N1: Vig (Thestatusquo). Fail.
N2: Track (OWER). No result.
N3: No Action
N4: Doc (Smiley).

Naerys - VT

Annie - VT

OWER - VT

Thestatusquo - VT

Mafia kills:
N1: THS tries to kill TSQ. Direct Jail.
N2: Python tries to kill Black. Direct Jail.
N3: THS kills Black.
N4: THS kills Roden.


THS>Annie>OWEN probably must win.

Start voting.

Honestly, I’m fine with this PoE—would personally like to go for OWER second instead of me (for obvious reasons), but I think this all lines up with everything I’ve been able to figure out so far. Happy to sign off on this with my vote.

VOTE: TheHoldSteady.

E-0.

[Enchant]

I don't like this.

[AnimatedWiz]

Why not? It tracks with everything I’ve said earlier this day—haven’t trust OWER, don’t trust THS any more. I’m happy with a POE that includes them, even if it means I might not be alive to see it completed D7.

[SmileyDude1]

How i see game.

Out of table:

Black - Macho 2-shot Watcher

- Killed by Mafia N3.

Spoiler: Acts

N1: Annie. No one.
N2: Python. Smiley, BlackStar.
N3: Can't act.

BlackStar - BG

- Executed 3D

Spoiler: Acts

N1: Thestatusquo
N2: usesPython

Python - Mafia Goon

- Executed D4.

Roden - VT

- Killed by Mafia N4.

Hu Tao - VT

- Executed 2D

Wartortle - VT

- Executed 1D

Enchant - ???

- Living


POE:

Smiley - Lazy JK

Spoiler: Acts

N1: THS.
N2: Python
N3: Annie
N4: Annie

THS - JOAT (Vig/Tracker/Doc)

Spoiler: Acts

N1: Vig (Thestatusquo). Fail.
N2: Track (OWER). No result.
N3: No Action
N4: Doc (Smiley).

Naerys - VT

Annie - VT

OWER - VT

Thestatusquo - VT

Mafia kills:
N1: THS tries to kill TSQ. Direct Jail.
N2: Python tries to kill Black. Direct Jail.
N3: THS kills Black.
N4: THS kills Roden.


THS>Annie>OWEN probably must win.

Start voting.

Honestly, I’m fine with this PoE—would personally like to go for OWER second instead of me (for obvious reasons), but I think this all lines up with everything I’ve been able to figure out so far. Happy to sign off on this with my vote.

VOTE: TheHoldSteady.

E-0.

Bruh...

You guys better be right about this given the amount of time we had left to discuss today.

[Enchant]

Why not? It tracks with everything I’ve said earlier this day—haven’t trust OWER, don’t trust THS any more. I’m happy with a POE that includes them, even if it means I might not be alive to see it completed D7.

I expected more resistance really.

Eh whatever, if we lose we lose.

[SmileyDude1]

I'm going to post my findings of the Python-Enchant interactions since those are finished already and then i'll see if I can do a quick scan to hipfire the rest.

[SmileyDude1]

Spoiler: Enchant

What is bothering me about python is that they say they mentally checked out from the game once Wiz vs. DE started happening, but I'm not noticing a difference in their posts pre and post DE/Wiz. They have pretty much the same attitude towards the game in regards to giving minimal reads and sheeping people

Like it kinda just seems like an excuse not to give reads or really play the game, especially considering the DE/Wiz argument wasn't nasty at all but rather fairly civil, so why did the walls take an emotional toll on python? Why did they accuse DE70 of tunneling in 226 if they didn't even read the walls they posted?

I'm willing to give python the benefit of the doubt if they are actually not feeling this game but something feels weird about how they have managed to position themselves on certain wagons while not actually doing much

It's invisible cause timezones lined up to have literally everyone posting only while we're asleep so we couldn't do our normal convo style of posting even before people started walling

And it's not anything to do with civility, we just can't really handle long posts that aren't directed at us; especially if they don't really have anything we can actually understand like most of the meta cases going on

220 we read cause it was the newest post and easy to digest, and we called DE out for tunneling cause we were townreading him for the Enchant case but couldn't see where he was coming from at all with the Wiz line

Suggests Python vibed with DE's enchant case (at least enough to sheep it). Feels notable that Python doesn't follow up on the case afterwards. Could be distancing

Nuclear vibe read: Enchant might be scum

Seems anti-associative at first glance (Especially given it came out of the blue), doesn't really go anywhere though again with Enchant comment shortly afterward being their last interaction day 1. Could easily be distancing imo

VOTE: Blackstar

Why?

Like 60% gamestate read, I think going from being completely meh about the Wartle wagon to suddenly hating it and the people on the wagon after it went through is scummy as hell

I townread Wartortle early on and defended him in multiple posts. Then towards the end of the day I started to get swayed by the arguments about him not following through on his pushes and I stopped defending him.

I was away for a while and when I came back Naerys had dropped a weak vote on him followed by an immediate hammer from Enchant. It’s understandable that I would think the wagon was fishy after that rushed hammer on someone who didn’t seem that suspicious to me

Are you unironically scumreading Enchant for quickhammering someone day 1?

Are you unironically scumreading Enchant for quickhammering someone day 1?

I scumread them at the end of D1, yeah. I don’t now

Have you played with Enchant before

Are you unironically scumreading Enchant for quickhammering someone day 1?

I scumread them at the end of D1, yeah. I don’t now

Have you played with Enchant before

Actually no nvm Black complained about Enchant's serial quickhammering after it happened

I don't think your Enchant read is real

This goes on but the Python-Blackstar debate that happens here gives me chainsaw defense vibes on Python's end (towards Enchant)

I like VCA, people who use it are especially prone to be trolled.

I like VCA, people who use it are especially prone to be trolled.

Wanna extended quickhammer someone?

Who

I like VCA, people who use it are especially prone to be trolled.

Wanna extended quickhammer someone?

Who

idk, whoever would be funniest

You would be funniest, just consider irony.

Idk why, but I could see scum!Enchant jokingly having this exchange with scum!Python

I don't get how your head works. Fine for what?

We're solving under the assumption of a town!Hu Tao world cause we got asked

and fine as in not scum

One of main important things is clearity. I not always follow it myself but still.

Keep it short and clear, i though it's "fine to elim".

Feels notable for being a clash between the two, though it's over something non-significant.

I find likelyhood of mafia skipping kill twice for amusement is like 1% (but possible). So
Jailkeeper must be town aligned and stopped one kill at minimum.

Naturally, BlackJack and/or Python should go, unless you build ninja theories.
Python less likely mafia, especially considering acting previous day.

Enchant leans towards Blackstar vote here. Also mentions the possibility of scum holstering which Enchant mentions at multiple other points day 3. Feels like Enchant might have been trying to float narratives that moved the game away from Python v Blackstar game state

I personally would risking to not kill watcher.

... But attacking bulletproof claim unless i already attacked them before, that's not something i would do. Why if i can always just kill watcher?
Or why if i have roleblock i just... Don't roleblock you?

... Hm. Maybe it points at Python even more, because you can't be saved. Mafia didn't bother to roleblock you but roleblocked THS. Maybe they didn't expect you live.

Or your claim is bogus, but likelyhood again is 1%.


That's why i advocate for both with Black first.

More of Enchant advocating Blackstar first day 3.

Surprisingly... There is reason to elim outside.

11 players, 3 mafias.

One mafia at Smiley/BlackJack/Python.

8 players, 2 mafias.

I am town.

7 players, 2 mafias

Black probably untouchable and town anyway.

6 players, 2 mafias.

So we have roughly 1/3 chances. And then mafia will be forced to kill PRs and PRs will need to explain why BG didn't protect jailkeeper/whatever really and etc.

Another instance of Enchant floating not eliminating inside Blackstar/Python

I am not against Python, it's just your reasoning as lacking.

Mechanically i am against Python.

Reads wise i am against BlackJack.

This feels hedgy. Like Enchant is ttrying to walk the fine line of pushing Blackstar while not being seen as defending Python

There's 3 common theories... Ok 2.5 common theories.

First is where mafia attacked Python then... Python. And attacker in N2 is BlackStar.
Second is where mafia... Hm. Attacked HoldSteady N1, then tried to attack whatever but Python got blocked.

And third is where mafia no-killed two times in a row to fool watcher about which they obviously knew and fooled JK/had ninja/whatever really who cares zzzz


So anyway, it's more matter who you believe was attacked N1: Hold steady or Python.

Floats scum holster theory again. Scum!Enchant has incentive to do this, because it could potentially create a gamestate where Python doesn't get autolimmed after Blackstar flip.

I may be willing to vote AnimatedWiz. Or maybe i won't.

NEXT DAY.

VOTE: Python

Votes Python here, tells Python to self-hammer afterwards. Could've been incentivized to minimize spew from Python in the case of scum!Enchant (though if this is the case I personally don't see why you request this in main thread instead of scum PT, but then i'm not Enchant)

Conclusion: This does not look good for Enchant. There's multiple interactions here that I see as having high partner equity between the two slots namely usesPython's debate with Blackstar day 2 which feels like it could be a chainsaw defense and Enchant's day 3 which feels like it was trying to bail Python out of the 1v1 (or at least ensure they win it and survive day 3).

[SmileyDude1]

TheStatusQuo- Notable lack of interaction between the two slots while Python was alive. Could be partner indicative potentially. 2070 does stand out to me though. TSQ never voted Python day 3 (there only vote was 2008 on Naerys) and the closest they came to suspecting Python that day phase was 1738 which doesn't match the confidence expressed in 2070. Strikes as a misrep to me.

[AnimatedWiz]

Why not? It tracks with everything I’ve said earlier this day—haven’t trust OWER, don’t trust THS any more. I’m happy with a POE that includes them, even if it means I might not be alive to see it completed D7.

I expected more resistance really.

Eh whatever, if we lose we lose.

I mean, I’m not just going to lie down and let myself get voted tomorrow, but if the worst case is me going first, then OWER after, it seems like a great deal in my opinion. Just a bit of a slower win.

Hm… I should consider Smiley’s case on Enchant, but the mech work seems pretty clear so far. I’ll have to double check some possibilities I may have missed during the night.

[AnimatedWiz]

TheStatusQuo- Notable lack of interaction between the two slots while Python was alive. Could be partner indicative potentially. 2070 does stand out to me though. TSQ never voted Python day 3 (there only vote was 2008 on Naerys) and the closest they came to suspecting Python that day phase was 1738 which doesn't match the confidence expressed in 2070. Strikes as a misrep to me.

What does a misrep mean in this case? My brain can’t seem to figure it out.

[SmileyDude1]

Misrep is probs not the correct term for that now that I think about it. I was trying to say that TSQ saying they wanted python gone in 2070 doesn't really match their stance during day 3.

A misrep is essentially someone taking something someone else said and twisting it to fit a narrative usually in a negative manner. A misrepresentation of a person's argument.

[AnimatedWiz]

Thank you for explaining, Smiley. I think you’re right about what you meant—even though THS can switch on issues quickly during his town games, I don’t remember him ever hiding that fact. I do find it odd that he would say that after how he voted for me instead of Python.

[SmileyDude1]

AnimatedWiz- Looking through Python's interactions I kind of see things that point towards it. Besides the day 3 where Wiz sided with Blackstar over Python), I also kind of get pinged by stuff like 1525 going to 1536 where Python posits a scumread on Wiz before moving them out of the solve. Python's early interaction with the DE/Wiz stuff also feels potentially paired (With Python trying to dissuade DE from tunneling here). I think one of the biggest points against is Python's 682 which attempts to pair Black/Wiz together feels kind of meant to shade potentially. I'd say overall I see the associatives here.

[SmileyDude1]

Thank you for explaining, Smiley. I think you’re right about what you meant—even though THS can switch on issues quickly during his town games, I don’t remember him ever hiding that fact. I do find it odd that he would say that after how he voted for me instead of Python.

???

I was referring to TSQ's stance on Python. Didn't mention THS at all.

[Naerys]

Hmm. If THS flips green then Enchant should go. But idk, this seems to be rather bold move for scum.