Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame
-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Been a long long while since I've played one of these so looking forward to getting going.
VOTE: Cobblerfone-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Apparently Hermit Crabs eat fallen fruits, which can include apples!In post 17, Mizuki wrote:
Are apples healthy for crabs? Research to be done.In post 15, Gamma Emerald wrote: What if the apple belongs to the crab?
Yes I did just look this up because this peaked my curiosity...
The more you know.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
According to the wiki its ELo/LiLo (Eliminate/Lim or lose)
Had to look up some of the new terms myself too lol.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Any particular reason why you're feeling that vote, or is it still kind of random?
-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
I was thinking this, I'd be a little worried to do this, because the scum could guess either the exact setup, or get very close to the exact set up depending on what PR they themselves have, and who ends up hypoclaiming what.In post 51, shaddowez wrote:
Unless there's enough overlap in claims, doesn't this give scum the exact setup?In post 43, Mizuki wrote: I did briefly consider if hypoclaiming (everyone picks a town role off the clock and then claims a target/result at the beginning of D2, the actual town PR's could claim their real results and then if they die)-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
I don't think that's true. Due to how the clock could work, I think there would be 3 different combinations of Town PR's that it could be depending on the Mafia's PR. Even more if the Mafia have a Rolecop.In post 53, Mizuki wrote: That is a point against it but also Maf already have a 50/50 shot of guessing the exact setup since they can infer it from their PR.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
If the number roll was 8, could there not be a Town Roleblocker and Rolecop in the same setup?In post 64, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: I think the ideal play for D2 is to do a pre-hypoclaim "categorical" claim where everyone claims whether or not they have a hard guilty. A hard guilty here would be a Rolecop that discovers a Rolecop/Roleblocker, or a Follower that sees their target kill. Assuming everyone claims they do NOT have a guilty, then we can proceed to hypoclaiming as though we are all one of the 4 roles that surrounds Mafia Rolecop. This will allow anyone who is actually on 2/4/8/10 to claim their results for post-flip analysis without giving too much away to scum in the moment. On the plus side, in the case of a hard guilty, there is a 50% chance that the other TPR is a protective that can save the player that claimed the hard guilty for more results D3 onward.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
May I ask why this makes you town read ssbm/Mizuki? Was it the way they went about it/responded to it, or just the fact they were trying to figure out how the setup could work/how hypoclaiming could get it to work in our favour?In post 80, Celebloki wrote: I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.
UNVOTE:-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
I don't necessarily think Cobblerfone is scummy, but my vote remains for now until they contribute something that let's me get a read from them.
If I'm honest I'm mostly waiting for your response to being questioned about post 30 before deciding how to proceed with my vote.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
I personally want to get a response regarding 30 because Puff has seemingly town-red 4 players in the game by page 4, and I'd 1) like to know how serious 30 was and 2) would like to know the reasons for those reads.In post 95, CrabApple wrote: Why are so many people waiting to see the response to post 30?
Feels like an excuse not to play
VOTE: Thomith-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
To be fair, maybe I am tunelled too much on 30.
Gunna be a bit busy today but will reread things with a more open mind over this weekend.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Cobblerfone, could you elaborate on what you mean when you say you doubt Puff is mafia due to statistical reasons?-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Reaction testing makes sense, I'm happy with this explanation for now.In post 109, Puffalicious wrote: I don't like how ssbm_Kyouko misrepped mine and gob's posts. It will take a while for me to respond to this post and from my understanding gob has been baiting reactions.
- A
To be honest with how the Puff slot in general responded to the questioning, and how they have been posting since, I do have a slight null leaning town read for now. Might look into how that wagon seemed to grow as there may be a potential of there being at least one scum pushing it if this slot is town as a kind of easy push reason (not answering).
In post 112, Cobblerfone wrote:
there's a 7/9 chance that the first big wagon of the day is town. I'm town and was the third vote. If Kyouko is town, she'd have a 2/9 chance of voting mafia on day one. If she were puff's partner, she could "randomly" vote informedly to distance, but considering their interactions so far I doubt they are mafia together unless Kyouko has a history of bussingIn post 104, Thomith wrote: Cobblerfone, could you elaborate on what you mean when you say you doubt Puff is mafia due to statistical reasons?In post 134, Cobblerfone wrote:
That's part of the reason I unvoted Puff. I have a townread on Kyouko and if she's town she and I are both more likely to have randomly voted for town than for mafia. 2/9 * 2/9 = 4/81 chance of mafiaIn post 124, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Why is kyouko scum individually?In post 101, Cobblerfone wrote: With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.
Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.
Why are you misrepresenting my reads?
These two quotes make me happy with my vote where it is for now. I don't really know how well or accurate these statistics can be, because when these things are influenced by peoples actions/differing motivations in how they are acting or voting, I think it fudges the accuracy of these statistics.
I'll need to reread Cobblerfone's ISO, because at a glance, specifically these quotes, feels like it could be scum acting like they are providing more information than they actually are.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Genuinely didn't mean to sheep if I have similar reasoning to you , I genuinely just saw the statistics posts and really didn't like them at all.In post 152, Mizuki wrote:
Not sure if we're mind-melding here or just sheeping what I've said on Cobb, lol.In post 151, Thomith wrote: -SNIP-
These two quotes make me happy with my vote where it is for now. I don't really know how well or accurate these statistics can be, because when these things are influenced by peoples actions/differing motivations in how they are acting or voting, I think it fudges the accuracy of these statistics.
I'll need to reread Cobblerfone's ISO, because at a glance, specifically these quotes, feels like it could be scum acting like they are providing more information than they actually are.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Oh just saw this, yeah I can see how it came across as me sheeping you then, but I missed this when I was skim reading, but yeah, I did get a similar vibe from those posts.In post 118, Mizuki wrote: 112 comes off as a player trying to sound analytical but the actual content is a very nothing-burger argument, and that type of play is more likely to come from scum here.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
I feel like faking newness could more be attempting to hide being an alt rather than indicating any kind of alignment in this case?In post 164, Gamma Emerald wrote: Kyouko I have light TR on mostly from vibes
Thomith I think is rather towny, I think there’s some good questions asked by him
Elements I’m slightly concerned about. I feel like the first 3 CrabApple posts are fake new-ness on reflection.
VOTE: Elements
Still don’t have a lot of feelings about shaddowez so that vote feels stale-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
I will say Elements vote on me was completely fair and did seen town motivated to try and get the game moving. Sure, they singled me out, but to be fair, I was the only person who was fully waiting on a response without analysing anything else further, which again to me makes the vote seem more town motivated vs opportunistic Mafia motivation.
Admittedly, as I said before, I had tunelled quite a bit on post 30, and wasnt really paying attention to much else.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
When rereading I just realised something I did not notice before.
I fully only thought there were like 2 or 3 of us questioning Puff about post 30, but on a reread it seems like it was over half the playerlist in the entire game that was questioning the slot (Me, Gamma Emerald, Cobblerfone, Elements, Mizuki, Kyouko) either directly on post 30, or on other things after it became clear that the Puff slot had gained a lot of attention. That definitely gives me vibes that Puff could very feasibly just be Town, and there was at least one Mafia jumping on that seemingly easy train of thought/suspicion.
Again this also makes me more tempted to read Elements as Town currently, as it did look like they were trying to avoid this happening, at least to me.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
@Cobblerfone, we have your thoughts on Kyouko and Puff, what are your thoughts on the other players in this game?-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
@Kyouko, as I believe you have said before that you felt confident identifying Gamma Emerald as Mafia, I'm curious to know your thoughts on this? Do you agree with this assessment?In post 196, Elements wrote:
You felt a lot more "look at me! I'm here to have fun!" In your entrance than I remember you feeling in other games I've played with youIn post 193, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Okay. What similarities did you see?In post 190, Elements wrote:
Skimmed Gamma's iso from open 891 and then reread its iso from this gameIn post 188, Cobblerfone wrote:In post 137, Elements wrote: I don't think Gamma is a good voteWhat changed your mind on her between these two posts?
-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Spoiler: Cobblerfone's Long Quote
Not completely game related but your visual of me made me smile
Could you expand a little on why you think you attract misguided town tunnels?
I'll bite on one of your other points though, just to hear some reasoning from someone else to avoid tunnelling on you.
@Elements, do you agree with the assessment that you've been vote hopping?
I'm willing to unvote for now. I admittedly don't know realistically how much info a Cobblerfone flip would give us right now.
UNVOTE:-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
May I ask why?
-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
What do you mean TMI on you and Gamma being town?In post 229, Elements wrote:I can join you here
VOTE: ssbm_kyouko
I've been pondering with the idea 202 is also tmi on both me and Gamma being town-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
As in, I actually don't understand what that means, rather than your reason for saying that-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Gotcha, yeah that makes sense.
I'm not sure that I see where in that post Kyouka having more information than she should though?-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Honestly, the reason why I'm a little confused is because the votes happened, but the reasoning for them had to be drawn out of Mizuki and Elements, rather than mentioned when the votes originally happened.
I could be reading too much into this though.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Right now I'm kind of in the same boat, I have some ideas of how I feel about most players, but also feel like I'm missing something that makes me confident to vote someone for sure.In post 242, gob wrote: not sure what to do here tbh
Celebloki and shaddowez should hopefully post soon, which at least will help me feel like I have some sort of a read on every slot-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
What's scummy about what is essentially an ego post?In post 252, Puffalicious wrote: Anyone else think shaddowez is scum here? just based off the first post.
Elements is being scummy too. But there is the whole alt thing so idk.
What do you think @kyouko-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Without double checking, were we not kind of out of RVS by the time he was back? At the least we were definitely into the phase of the day where we were on setup/hypoclaim discussion.In post 255, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: By itself no it's not but I remember being bothered that the promised random vote never came the next day - by the time I noticed that he was gone and there were other things to focus on though-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
That's kind of what I assumed you meant.In post 257, Puffalicious wrote:
Over explainy first post. "Sleep now." "Post tomorrow"In post 253, Thomith wrote:
What's scummy about what is essentially an ego post?In post 252, Puffalicious wrote: Anyone else think shaddowez is scum here? just based off the first post.
Elements is being scummy too. But there is the whole alt thing so idk.
What do you think @kyouko
Scum feels the need to over explain, especially in a scenario where they legit gotta go. Town would just be like "sup" and leave.
Hm. I guess I could see it, but I do want to hear more from him before making a full judgement.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Up until the Gamma Meta, and subsequent Kyouko discussion, I had a slight town read on Elements, due to the attempt to push the game forward/away from everyone focusing on you for post 30.In post 259, Puffalicious wrote:
That's fair. what do you think about elements/crabappleIn post 258, Thomith wrote:
That's kind of what I assumed you meant.In post 257, Puffalicious wrote:
Over explainy first post. "Sleep now." "Post tomorrow"In post 253, Thomith wrote:
What's scummy about what is essentially an ego post?In post 252, Puffalicious wrote: Anyone else think shaddowez is scum here? just based off the first post.
Elements is being scummy too. But there is the whole alt thing so idk.
What do you think @kyouko
Scum feels the need to over explain, especially in a scenario where they legit gotta go. Town would just be like "sup" and leave.
Hm. I guess I could see it, but I do want to hear more from him before making a full judgement.
I feel like their opening was bad enough to warrant a vote today.
I'm not too sure after that though. It seemed like they backed off the Gamma meta argument when questioned, and as I said before, I do just get a weird feeling that the Kyouko push happened without much reason to begin with (I understand Mizuki's reasoning for this), and the reasoning had to be extracted through questioning.
To be fair, I feel like Elements responded well to this questioning, which is what makes me feel weird about that whole situation and makes me unsure how to read it at the moment.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
I disagree about their opening. at best it's NAI.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
I want to clarify I 100% understand the push, and understand the reasoning even if I don't agree with it, I just get a weird feeling about the whole discussion that I can't properly put my finger on as to why.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
I can see your reasoning for Puff and Cobb clearly in your catch up post, but could you expand on your other reads?In post 283, imaginality wrote: Readslist:
Yay!
Thomith
Elements
Mizuki
Kyouko
Gamma
Puff
Shadow
Cobb
Nay!-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
This attempt at insinuating that Puff has knowledge they shouldn't feels like a stretch to me...In post 289, imaginality wrote:
Only would be a chain mislim if Cobb (or you) are scum otherwise it fails as soon as one flips town. So are you saying you're sure Cobb is scum?In post 285, Puffalicious wrote: I did not like imaginality's catch up. The wallpost looked like the kind of post scum would make to fake a read and it looked like he was pairing Cobb's and me as scum buddies. Pairing 2 players as scum I consider it scum trying to setup chain mislim. The part where imaginality said where I was rewarding a town read made no sense to me.
- A-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Why do you think that?In post 314, Enchant wrote: lol cobberfone mafia-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
What's going on...-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
This reads list gives me bad vibes and I'm not entirely sure why.In post 283, imaginality wrote: Readslist:
Yay!
Thomith
Elements
Mizuki
Kyouko
Gamma
Puff
Shadow
Cobb
Nay!
I agree with what Cobb has said a little, it feels like the 4 "scummiest" on the list have either already had a decent amount of suspicion on them, or haven't been posting walls so I could see this list maybe coming from a Mafia member trying to set up Mislims against people they think they potentially could out argue.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
It's not specifically that they find Cobb scummy - all 4 of their "scummiest" players seem like they could come from opportunistic scum.
Like it almost feel like the list is ordered from hardest to argue a lim for to easiest to argue a lim for, which has given me a bad gut feeling towards it.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
In post 323, Puffalicious wrote: I've never played with Enchant and thanks for letting us now that he auto hammers at E-1.
- A
Is that actually true?-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
I think a Cobb flip gives us a decent amount of information, and they still are my biggest scum read at the moment.
The imaginality reads list is the only thing throwing me for a loop here at the moment though.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
This was the last thing I remember seeing regarding hypoclaiming, so I assume we are going with this plan?In post 310, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: Hypoclaiming plan, in summary, assuming a town PR is not dead by morning of D2:
Everyone in turn claims whether they have a hard guilty or not
If nobody has a hard guilty, everyone hypoclaims as though they are one of the roles on 2/4/8/10 on the clock in the setup. When hypoclaiming, make sure the result you are claiming could be legit, like if you're pretending to be on 2 dont claim as though a 7 is in the game because it's not possible from 2's POV. Every hypoclaim needs to be believable so it can't be used to POE the TPRs. Also dont hypoclaim a guilty because we're checking for guilties before the hypoclaim so that will also out you as a VT. It is very important that any TPR on 1/5/7/11 claims as though they are on 2/4/8/10 otherwise this would obviously expose you.
Benefits of claiming the guilty first before any hypoclaims is half the time the other TPR is one that can protect the investigative TPR that claimed, and by claiming guilty first, the protective has not outed themselves
Benefits of claiming on 2/4/8/10 is that it does not give scum any info about the setup before flips unless someone claims an inno on scum where scum knows a real PR would have a guilty. In this case it helps scum POE into PR kills/wagons
Benefit of 1/5/7/11 claiming as a 2/4/8/10 - 1/5/7/11s do not have the ability to hard guilty anyone and it is still possible to crumb your actual result/target by using the hypoclaim. For example a doctor could say they tracked X nowhere and after that doctor flips, we can probably assume X was doctored if it would make sense from flipped doctor's POV to guard X. I don't think that 1/5/7/11s necessarily should crumb what they did because oftentimes it won't amount to a hard guilty or hard inno.
This is all recapped on mobile without referencing the setup clock but I think it should be accurate-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Hypoclaim: I do not have a hard guilty.
I'd be inclined to say I don't think the last Mafia is Puff - calling back to this post I made during Day 1:
Cobb was one of the people that seemed to jump onto suspecting Puff after a few people had already declared their suspicions on them, which now Cobb has flipped red, makes me think they were opportunistic scum jumping onto someone who wasn't them, which makes me feel better about Puff being town - it reinforces what I thought at the time that Puff may just be town.In post 178, Thomith wrote: When rereading I just realised something I did not notice before.
I fully only thought there were like 2 or 3 of us questioning Puff about post 30, but on a reread it seems like it was over half the playerlist in the entire game that was questioning the slot (Me, Gamma Emerald, Cobblerfone, Elements, Mizuki, Kyouko) either directly on post 30, or on other things after it became clear that the Puff slot had gained a lot of attention. That definitely gives me vibes that Puff could very feasibly just be Town, and there was at least one Mafia jumping on that seemingly easy train of thought/suspicion.
Again this also makes me more tempted to read Elements as Town currently, as it did look like they were trying to avoid this happening, at least to me.
Unless they randomly hard bussed, I feel very good about Imaginality and Kyouko for sure, also feel relatively good about Mizuki for now too.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Hypoclaim: Rolecop on Puffalicious. They are Vanilla.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
This is the explanation for why/what we are doing then by the way.In post 367, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: I don't have a hard guilty - does anyone have a hard guilty before we move to hypoclaims?
These are the possible hypoclaims for 2/4/8/10, where the letters are variables like targets or actions:
2 (Tracker): X went nowhere, X visited Y, (X visited Y and Z is a hard guilty)
4 (Follower): X did nothing, X Jailkept, X Tracked, (X shot/killed is a hard guilty)
8 (Roleblocker): I roleblocked X
10 (Rolecop): X is vanilla, X is a doctor, X is a Roleblocker, (X is a rolecop is a hard guilty)
As a reminder, if you are on 1/5/7/11, you should make up a claim on 2/4/8/10. If you want to you can try to "sneak" your actual claim into the hypoclaim.
For example a Vanilla Cop who got a Vanilla result could claim to be a Rolecop that got a Vanilla result.
A jailkeeper could claim to have roleblocked their target.
Doctors and Babysitters can claim anything, just try not to out yourself.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
I'd like to suggest you may be tunelled on imaginality here. I understand the reasoning behind your point but to me, it would feel like it would be absolutely crazy to get your partner eliminated on Day 1, just to secure a mislim on Day 2.In post 396, Puffalicious wrote:
Kyouko's post on #384 did not make me suspect her. Cobb said like around 2 or 3 times they have a strong town read on Kyouko and after seeing their flip it made me think they tmied Kyouko town.In post 395, Mizuki wrote:
I very rarely have good progressions. I play very much "in the moment", so to speak, which can make me seem inconsistent. Are you also suspect of Kyouko here? She stated a "firm town" read on Elements in 254 and now 384 looks to be Kyouko now scumreading Elements.In post 394, Puffalicious wrote:
It makes it hard for me to buy what you're saying and your inconsistency was very pingy. Progressions are very important and you did not show progression on your read on us. It would have looked alot more believable if you said something along the lines of, "I had a town read on Puff from last day but now my town read on them is starting to drop." After seeing the Cobbs flip, I put you as town on my reads list I made in the hydra chat and now that I saw your recent post I became paranoid of you.In post 392, Mizuki wrote: A combination of re-reading the game during night phase, cannibalizing other people's reads, and associatives from the Cobb flip.
What is your response to 385, by the way?
What does cannibalizing other peoples reads mean?
My response to your other post is on the first paragraph this is what I believe and I became worried that town would never look into the set up of a miselim because scum can get away from doing it. Where I come from town hardly ever does it and they have individual reads instead.
- A
When I say "cannibalizing" I'm basically just sheeping other people's reads. As I said I trust Imagi for right now, and you were suspected rather early in the day.
How many games have you played on MS (talking to Adorable specifically)? I can show you a few games where town lost because they were looking for a team rather than an individual scum-read. I've won scumgames off of that.
You accused my slot of cannabilizing and so are you saying I have been sheeping? Where have I been sheeping because it doesn't feel like I have been sheeping. You said you trust imagi and was it just his catch up you liked? Is there anything else you like about imagi?
I've only played alike around 12-15 games here. I don't know if you are misunderstanding me or not. You said you can show me a few games where town lost for looking for a team rather than individual scum read and my read on imagi was mainly his catch up post from day 1 how it looked like he paired me and cobb as a team when there has been no scum flip at that time and after seeing Cobb's flip I still suspected imagi and on day 2 I became worried he was setting up a day 2 miselim. Are you saying I am looking for team rather than individual scum read?
- A-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
While my Vote on Cobb started as RVS, I mentioned my suspicion on them multiple times and stated that was the reason my vote stayed there for so long.
Due to how Cobb interacted with Puff early on in the day, jumping on the Puff suspicion after the wagon was gaining speed, and even though they unvoted, kept mentioning they suspected Puff for a long time after unvoting them to stop Puff falling out of discussion as being a possible elimination, I have a hard time believing that Puff is the partner. I'll explain more with examples once I'm home from work later.
If we are between Puff and Gamma, I'd prefer to get Gamma here.
Because Cobb was also on Gamma for a lot of the day, I think there's a chance that Gamma isnt scum either, and we just have a deep wolf.
I doubt it's you, unless you pulled a real nasty gambit by hard bussing Cobb, and I feel good about Kyouko as well.
My gut is pinging on Mizuki, but I really don't know why, so dont want to pursue that at the moment. I need to reread Elements I think.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
In post 101, Cobblerfone wrote: With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.
Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.
These two posts happened quite early on in the day, after there were a lot of us questioning Puff at that point. As I mentioned before, when I realised there were so many people going after the Puff slot, it made me seriously consider that Puff could be town, and that there was at least one scum jumping onto the suspicions as this was an easy wagon to go down. Now that Cobb has flipped Red, I am almost positive that I was correct, and Cobb was the scum that was part of this push.In post 111, Cobblerfone wrote:
Can you elaborate on what you mean by "get attention going" and your motive for doing so? Or by "nothing that serious" are you claiming it was tongue-in-cheek?In post 107, Puffalicious wrote:
What is there to respond to? I just said that to get attention going, nothing that serious.In post 101, Cobblerfone wrote: With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.
Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.
Even when unvoting, they make a point to say they think flipping Puff still isn't a bad idea, giving them an easy way to jump back onto that wagon if it picked up again, with the excuse of "trying to get information" because Puff still had heat on them at that point of the day.In post 119, Cobblerfone wrote: Hmmmmmmmm...
While I think Puff's death could give us the most information (i.e. if they flip mafia then Crabapple and Mizuki seem more like mafia trying to apply pressure elsewhere and if they flip town Crabapple and Mizuki hopping off the bandwagon makes them look townier), Puff's recent posts feel like they come from town to me, especially A's. I think the wagon has produced adequate info. Combined with the the statistical chance previously explained, I think scum's more likely to be laying low.
VOTE: Gamma Emerald
All their posts have been low content so far.
The reason why I'm not 100% convinced that Gamma is scum, is the reasoning for Cobb's jump onto Gamma. It feels similar to Puff, where they were looking for an easy reason to latch onto something. Again though, if wearechoosing between Puff and Gamma, I'm more confident that Puff is town than I am Gamma, so that's where my preference is.
This feels like Cobb knows they are in real trouble, knows that they and Puff are being paired, and so started playing into that pair to set up Puff when Cobb ended up flipping Red. This is more of a WIFOM reason than the rest I guess, but I genuinely feel like that easily could have been what happened here.In post 312, Cobblerfone wrote: Woke up early today and my mind got locked on the game. I guess sleep really does help process stuff. I didn't vote him yesterday because I wanted to make sure it wasn't just emotion fueling my vote, but I realized something: who are Imaginality's top scum reads? The two players who got to E-2 and the V/LA Enchant slot everyone else is also suspicious of by default. Why vote me when the only reason he gives for me being scum is that I was allegedly trying to defend scum!Puff? I think Imaginality is scum who decided in advance who he was going to vote: the non-RVS wagon of the day, so they go looking for reasons to vote me. But there's a problem, the only potentially scummy thing I've done is divert pressure off of Puff's wagon -- but it's only scummy if Puff is mafia. But he doesn't vote Puff despite having more reasons to vote them, instead he votes for me. Why? There are two possibilities: either Puff is mafia and he's voting me trying to manufacture evidence that Puff is town (he said that if I'm town, then Puff is town) OR Puff is town (more likely given Puff's pushback) and he's voting me becauseIwas one of Puff's three votes AND Puff's wagon was mostly RVS.
VOTE: imaginality
To me it genuinely looks like Cobb was trying to push Puff early on when Puff was being heavily suspected, and when it was clear that Cobb was probably going down, they tried to make Puff look as bad as possible to drag them down as well, which is why I'm inclined to think Puff is town here.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Did Cobb say they were newbscum?In post 426, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: seeing 425 reminds me Cobb was newbscum and probably spewed some townies
Owner's Market Blitz was not the game I'm remembering btw-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
If I'm honest I genuinely think you could be tunelled on Puff, the same way I think Puff is tunelled on you.In post 434, imaginality wrote: @Thomasina I don't see why Cobb feels the need to unvote Puff in 119 if Puff is town. Why not just stay on Puff there? Maybe you can argue it's NAI rather than my take of it pointing to them being aligned but I think it's a stretch to call Puff town because of it.
What did you think of my other points about Puff?
@kyouko you can see in the 'statistical reasons' comment in 101 that Cobb was already preparing to jump ship at a suitable time.
I think all of your points against puff could be very easily argued as either NAI, or Town motivated depending on the perspective you read the posts from.
81 - Could be town motivated by attempting to avoid people potentially misclearing based on something that isn't actively working towards solving the game.
204 - Reads can change - and this feels like a progression of their read on me, rather than randomly calling me town because I called them town. As far as I remember, Puff never outright suspected me, so it's not like they suddenly flipped their read out of nowhere, which I think would give this point more merit (I see where you're coming from though, so I could be wrong about this).
376 & 386 - to be completely honest, because Puff ended up hypoclaiming an action that was not in the roles that was listed in the hypoclaim plan, I genuinely could just see them not understanding the hypoclaim plan.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Didn't imaginality restart the Cobb wagon, or am I misremembering?-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Oh, I misread the last part of your post - I thought you were saying that they jumped onto the Cobb wagon because it was moving quickly, nevermind.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
I think the other possibility to this is Scum maybe rolled Rolecop and took the 50/50 on what side of the clock we're on.In post 448, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
No I didn't misread it, what I'm saying is Celebloki and Cobbler potentially coordinated to crumb follower so that in the event one was going down, they could try to bait a CC from what is probably the only role that could guilty them if Celebloki rolled strongman, which seems the most likely.scenario if Cobbler claimed specifically Follower. My guess is scum rolled strongman and because strongman can shoot through Babysitter, Roleblocker, and Jailkeeper, the only PR to worry about is FollowerIn post 435, imaginality wrote:
Did you misread Celeboki as Cobblerfone?In post 433, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
What I do see here is a potential Follower crumb and since Cobbler claimed Follower, I could see scum thinking there is a follower in the setup and trying to draw a future counterclaim out of them with this plan. It's a common enough expression, but worth noting as a potential crumb I think.In post 80, Celebloki wrote: I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.
UNVOTE:
I'm Celebloki's replacement, and this is not helpful speculation.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
TrueIn post 451, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: Yeah but the puzzle fits so nicely if it's strongman-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Idk, I'm not sure I buy imaginality as scum tbh. While I get your points that it could be possible, and why you think it could be possible, it feels like there are a few too many what ifs that make me question it a little.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Enchant is dead, and how is everyone else clear?In post 454, Puffalicious wrote: Gamma Enchant Elements Thomith
Everyone else is clear
I think we go
Gamma > Thomith > Ehcnant/Elements-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
While I unvoted, I was pretty vocal about suspecting Cobb throughout the day.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
So you also don't think there is any possibility that somebody bussed Cobb?In post 457, Puffalicious wrote:
Everyone else (except my slot lol) voted Cobbler at one point or another. Gamma didn't vote. You did vote but then unvoted. Elements was last to jump on among alive.In post 455, Thomith wrote:
Enchant is dead, and how is everyone else clear?In post 454, Puffalicious wrote: Gamma Enchant Elements Thomith
Everyone else is clear
I think we go
Gamma > Thomith > Ehcnant/Elements-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
Should Gamma claim?-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK
At this point I'm more inclined to hammer Gamma than you, but I'm not sure I'm ready for the day to end yet, because I'm still a little conflicted.-
-
Thomith He/TheyMafia ScumHe/They
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4750
- Joined: January 20, 2011
- Pronoun: He/They
- Location: UK