Open 892 | Nomination Mafia | Postgame

[RH]

Mafia has nominated Black, Roulette, and Bellaphant.

[RH]

Day 4 Commencement

Not Voting

- Bellaphant, Black, gob, Roulette, Skygazer

Notes

• My mod ISO is here.
  
• With 5 remaining, it takes 3 to form a majority.
  
• Reminder that elimination is compulsory.
  
• Mafia has nominated Black, Roulette, and Bellaphant.
  
• I have exams from 8 December to 13 December so Aisa will take over then.

The

Day

concludes in (expired on 2023-12-07 15:36:00).

[Skygazer]

if we can figure out two townies we win

i'm one of them so that's kind of half the battle

[Bellaphant]

We can get today wrong and still win tomorrow? This is ridiculously wifom but would scum!roulette nominate themselves twice?

[Bellaphant]

I think the fact that me and black have been put up is playing into gobs theory: I think this means gob could be town scum is trying to appeal to?

[Black]

We can get today wrong and still win tomorrow? This is ridiculously wifom but would scum!roulette nominate themselves twice?

This was my first thought. Scum doesn't have to nominate themselves today. Obviously they could have done it for the WIFOM argument but I don't think the risk is worth the reward

[Black]

I'm gonna try to look at interactions once I get out of bed and grab some coffee

[Skygazer]

i'm paranoid that molla self hammered because i dragged my feet on hammering and he wanted to paint me as a partner

[Bellaphant]

Nah, molla was fucked no matter what, I'm surprised it took him that long to self hammer. I'm more weirded out by blacks unvote at all, like molla was obv scum?

I kinda just wanna hear from gob? For wagon Poe it maybe should be black today, because I figure Im fairly clear by yesterday?

[Bellaphant]

Day 1 Count II

Organized Khaos (3) - KittyTacky, Skygazer, Roulette
Black (1) - Aureal
Roulette (1) - Organized Khaos
Aureal (1) - Black
Skygazer (1) - Merlyn

Not Voting

- Bellaphant

Notes

• My mod ISO is here.
  
• With 8 remaining, it takes 5 to form a majority.
  
• Reminder that elimination is compulsory.
  
• Please let know of any errors or queries.
  
• I am on V/LA and staying at home today.

The

Day

concludes in (expired on 2023-11-12 16:25:00).

Gob/ok wagon: town, ? ?

Day 1 Count VIII

Organized Khaos (3) - Skygazer, Roulette, Aureal
KittyTacky (2) - Black, Bellaphant
Skygazer (1) - Merlyn
Roulette (1) - Organized Khaos

Not Voting

- KittyTacky

Notes

• My mod ISO is here.
  
• With 8 remaining, it takes 5 to form a majority.
  
• Reminder that elimination is compulsory.
  
• Please let know of any errors or queries.

The

Day

concludes in (expired on 2023-11-12 16:25:00).

Gob/ok wagon: ? ? Town
Kitty (town) ? ?

Day 1 Count XI

KittyTacky (4) - Black, Bellaphant, Skygazer, Organized Khaos
Organized Khaos (3) - Roulette, Aureal, KittyTacky
Skygazer (1) - BBmolla

Not Voting

- N/A

Notes

• My mod ISO is here.
  
• With 8 remaining, it takes 5 to form a majority.
  
• Reminder that elimination is compulsory and plurality applies as defined in 309.
  
• Please let know of any errors or queries.
  
• BBmolla replaces Merlyn. Please welcome them!
  
• I'll edit the older VCs later to reflect the deadline extension.

The

Day

concludes in (expired on 2023-11-13 16:25:00).

This one is really interesting, as there is scum on one of the two wagons! Interestingly, only one person voting for gob is still alive, the others are all dead.town, and everyone else is on kitty. This feels like it should mean something

Day 1 Count XII

KittyTacky (

E-1

) - Black, Bellaphant, Organized Khaos, Aureal
Aureal (3) - BBmolla, KittyTacky, Skygazer
Organized Khaos (1) - Roulette

Not Voting

- N/A

Notes

• My mod ISO is here.
  
• With 8 remaining, it takes 5 to form a majority.
  
• Reminder that elimination is compulsory and plurality applies as defined in 309.
  
• Please let know of any errors or queries.
  
• I'll edit the older VCs later to reflect the deadline extension.

The

Day

concludes in (expired on 2023-11-13 16:25:00).

This pile on on aureal is just super weird. Roulettes invite is also weird.

Day 1 Count XIII

KittyTacky (

E-1

) - Black, Bellaphant, Organized Khaos, Aureal
Aureal (

E-1

) - BBmolla, KittyTacky, Skygazer, Roulette

Not Voting

- N/A

Notes

• My mod ISO is here.
  
• With 8 remaining, it takes 5 to form a majority.
  
• Reminder that elimination is compulsory and plurality applies as defined in 309.
  
• Please let know of any errors or queries.
  
• I'll edit the older VCs later to reflect the deadline extension.

The

Day

concludes in (expired on 2023-11-13 16:25:00).

Similar to the above, but roulette has voted.

Day 1 Final

KittyTacky (

E-1

) - Black, Bellaphant, Organized Khaos, Aureal
Aureal (

E-1

) - BBmolla, KittyTacky, Skygazer, Roulette

Not Voting

- N/A

Notes

• My mod ISO is here.
  
• With 8 remaining, it took 5 to form a majority.
  
• Reminder that elimination is compulsory and plurality applies as defined in 309.
  
• Please let know of any errors or queries.
  
• I'll edit the older VCs later to reflect the deadline extension.

The

Day

concludes in (expired on 2023-11-13 16:25:00).

I think this is harder because merlyn and gobs slot were so absent day one. I low-key feel this looks bad for roulette and black but I dunno, in hindsight day one was a bit of a trash fire and me and black left our vote where it was way too long

[Black]

Nah, molla was fucked no matter what, I'm surprised it took him that long to self hammer. I'm more weirded out by blacks unvote at all, like molla was obv scum?

shrug

If I'm right about Roulette then the unvote won't be weird at all

I don't think anyone left is even scumreading Roulette but me? So nominating himself might be a decent play even though it would be unnecessary

[Skygazer]

i'm SRing roulette but i need to reevaluate before committing

[Bellaphant]

I think I'd be surprised if it was gob, it could be roulette or black and low key annoyed if it was sky

[Skygazer]

i would be high key annoyed if it was me

[RH]

Day 4 Count I

Not Voting

- Bellaphant, Black, gob, Roulette, Skygazer

Notes

• My mod ISO is here.
  
• With 5 remaining, it takes 3 to form a majority.
  
• Reminder that elimination is compulsory.
  
• Mafia has nominated Black, Roulette, and Bellaphant.
  
• I have exams from 8 December to 13 December so Aisa will take over then.

The

Day

concludes in (expired on 2023-12-07 15:36:00).

[Black]

Ok so the possible pairings are

molla/Roulette
molla/bella
molla/gob
molla/Sky

Starting from the top:

Spoiler: molla/Roulette

32 is Roulette asking Merlyn "why did I not get a welcome" which could be theatre. Merlyn responds in 35 and responds "I don't know". There's a chance Merlyn didn't welcome him because they're scum together and then she was caught off guard by this question

47 is Merlyn asking Khaos why he's suspicious of Roulette. We know this isn't a sorting question because Merlyn is scum, but it could have been meant to look like she was sorting

89 kinda feels like a softball question to Merlyn. 94 continues this and it reads a little like a fake scum interaction

Merlyn declares Roulette as her first townread in 93 based on not much

Merlyn assuming English isn't Roulette's first language in 113 feels a little weird, and this question feels like a way for Roulette to explain his stance better. I don't think Roulette explains it any better in 131 but if he's scum here then Merlyn definitely tried

I find it noteable that outside of these early interactions, Roulette doesn't really seem concerned with engaging with Merlyn at all. He spends the rest of the time she's in the game talking to other people

molla replaces in and his first comment on Roulette is 374. They have a little back and forth in 375 and 377 but it doesn't really go anywhere. molla then suggests Roulette vote for Aureal in 381 and Roulette promptly agrees in 382. Could definitely be a fake interaction

426 is hilarious if these two are paired, but it actually pings me as an unpartnered interaction. Not sure why molla would type this in the main thread

Roulette gets mad at Khaos in 472 for not playing the game. Molla hasn't done much more but he was more active around this time so this is probably nothing

483 ok this definitely screams partnered lol. What the heck. The weirdest part is he says this but doesn't really consider molla as an option for quite some time

In 649 Roulette says that he thinks molla may be scum and that he'll "save my reasons for tomorrow" ?????

Roulette says that he liked molla's posting at the end of the day in 685. Not wanting to give those reasons for molla!scum now huh?

Roulette finally votes molla in 692 and it feels like he finally gave in to thread consensus and they decided it was time to bus

The rest of their interactions just kinda feel like distancing

Conclusion: likely partnered

That took a lot out of me so I will work on molla/bella a bit later

[gob]

if we can figure out two townies we win

i'm one of them so that's kind of half the battle

I think you could be mafia here still, since you weren't voting BBmolla. What do you think about that?

It would mean Day 2 you put yourself up and we got pwned but maybe that's what happened.

[gob]

I think we win here but I'll have to wait and hear from everyone.

I'm starting to realize 2 mafia is just 2 easy for town.

[gob]

Okay I think I know who it is almost certainly now. BBMolla's ISO makes it quite obvious.

I'll give everyone time to do their thang, and for mafia to dig their own hole a bit.

When you all are ready to end the game, let me know.

[Bellaphant]

Iso says sky/roulette?

[Skygazer]

molla also opened up by trying to dismantle the khaos (now gob) wagon

[Skygazer]

if we can figure out two townies we win

i'm one of them so that's kind of half the battle

I think you could be mafia here still, since you weren't voting BBmolla. What do you think about that?

It would mean Day 2 you put yourself up and we got pwned but maybe that's what happened.

i think that if i were mafia with molla i would have committed to the bus and hammered for the cred instead of twiddling my thumbs second guessing myself. but that's probably not a super compelling argument.

[gob]

Iso says sky/roulette?

Perhaps. I am actually down to argue any point though, basically arguing anyone as the last mafia. At this point the game is just fun for me, because I already know who is mafia, already know how to catch them 100% of the time. I am just waiting because waiting is part of fulfilling the 100% catch rate.

But one person is far easier to argue for than the other. Just looking at BBmolla's ISO and nobody else's.

[gob]

if we can figure out two townies we win

i'm one of them so that's kind of half the battle

I think you could be mafia here still, since you weren't voting BBmolla. What do you think about that?

It would mean Day 2 you put yourself up and we got pwned but maybe that's what happened.

i think that if i were mafia with molla i would have committed to the bus and hammered for the cred instead of twiddling my thumbs second guessing myself. but that's probably not a super compelling argument.

Yes, it kind of comes down to WIFOM. Also I sort of forgot we can't lim you so its a mute point regardless.

[gob]

Realistically it's not you though Skygazer.

Because mafia putting themselves up Day 2 is sort of an unnecessarily WIFOM risk. I also didn't really feel any super desperation from you being sus'd by me and pushed (which i am reading as towny but could be wrong meta wise).

Basically, we simply can't assume either way mafia put all town up or not Day 2. But mafia knows that Town has no way to clear the 2 other people after Day 2's lim (you can lim them, but it's hard to justify continually limming from a pool created by mafia).

BASICALLY (again) what im saying is, mafia would more likely than not put all Town up Day 2. BECAUSE town has no reason to believe mafia wouldn't put themselves up Day 2 since it doesn't matter.


Although as I type this out now I'm not sure. I do think mafia put up all town Day 2, that's just sorta the vibe I got. But realistically the more I think about it, mafia almost ALL the time wants to nominate 1, maybe even 2 mafia Day 2. No fucking joke. That is actually the optimal play.

Because after Day 2, it's hard to justify continually limming from the pool created by mafia. Maybe one person if you felt they were scummy enough, but one person is getting spewed town in that pool. If they're both nominating each other Day 2, then the mafia can distance from each other way more effectively. If the mafia teammates nominate each other Day 4, they can split the votes between each other too if both are viewed as scum.

With all that crap said, I don't think it's you Skygazer. Even though it sort of goes contrary to what an optimal mafia team would do.