Large Normal 246: Game Over

[Black]

I don't think Celebloki has had a single post that wasn't about RN, which is more than a little suspicious.

VOTE: Celebloki

This is a better reason than the safe RVS vote stuff but it doesn't appear to be true. It's a little odd that you looked at Celebloki's ISO and came to this conclusion

I did look fairly quickly (it's a work day) -- if I'm wrong please feel free to point something out.

About half his posts are about RN which is a lot different than all of them

[ssbm_Kyouko]

furiously refreshing to congratulate Black on her natural pagetop

[davesaz]

Maybe I forgot to say non-trivial post or substantial post.

[Elements]

I would like to propose a plan:

Every person list 2-4 people they are sure are town with higher than 90% certainty.

Then we make a pool of 4-5 people who never get voted today.

Then we just wagon a random person who's not in the pool, and repeat the same tomorrow. If the reads are accurate, that gives 33% chance to hit scum each day, or about 60% chance to to succeed on either.

My 2 are Gamma and Nurse btw.

I'll play
CSF and Gamma

[Black]

Can someone explain the case on Celebloki?

Spoiler: case highlighted in color

I've also been in a lot of games that Random Nurse was in a the start, my RVS vote on him is basically because I knew he wasn't going to show.

VOTE: Celebloki

It feels strange to me that nobody else took issue with this for the same reason I did. Guillotina voted here but not for the same reason.

The issue I have with this post is it reveals that Celebloki wanted a 'safe' RVS vote. Who but scum wants that?

Who but scum even thinks "I know this guy isnt going to show so I'll vote him in RVS"

If you're doing this as town you can just not vote. This is scum trying to fit in during RVS and now that we're out of it he felt comfortable enough to admit it.

He slipped imo

Who but scum even thinks "I know this guy isnt going to show so I'll vote him in RVS"

If you're doing this as town you can just not vote. This is scum trying to fit in during RVS and now that we're out of it he felt comfortable enough to admit it.

He slipped imo

I always have a reason for a vote, even in RVS. It can sometimes be just because I think their name is silly, because of a previous game with that person, or any other random reason. Are you saying all townies always truly randomly vote in RVS? You had no reason to vote Nono or guillotina at the start?

Nono, no. No reason I mean.

Guillotina, yes. For that one time he was scum (that I found on D1 who then turned it around on me and got me mislimmed D1) in that one game (Chrono Trigger Chronicles: The Rise of Yakra).

I don't think townies truly "randomly" vote, no. For me I was just looking through the player list and the name caught my eye so I voted nono. Then I stopped looking at the playerlist and got back to reading the game. Later on I looked at the full playerlist and recognized Guillotina and I did have a reason for that vote.

I dont think the problem is that your vote wasnt random

, I dont think town is always going to open up a random number generator and pick someone.

The reason you had I think is scum-indicative. If you think RN isn't going to join the game, why vote there (rhetorical)? You'll never get a reaction that way and I think as town (the royal) you would want to avoid that kind of vote that does nothing when they could make a different one that might produce something.

That's why I moved my vote from Nono to Guillotina, because with Nono it was just a vote for whomever, not that likely to get attention, but I did get Guillotina's attention when he started reading

So you're entire case on Celebloki is that you think his RVS vote was safe? I don't really think scum would be concerned over the optics of an RVS vote

Does anyone else have anything more substantial?

Yes, that it was safe on purpose. Nobody else has cased Celebloki I don't think. Guillo said his vote was for a different reason than mine so maybe he posted a reason somewhere, I feel like I read his reason and it didn't leave a lasting impression because I don't remember it. Mostly I remember being disappointed it was not for the reason I had not yet spoken

What is the scum motivation behind a safe RVS vote? I guess what I'm asking is do you think scum are paranoid about how their RVS votes look?

I think they

can

be, and less importantly, but still relevant: I think it's highly unlikely that town get paranoid about how their RVS vote looks outside of

extenuating

circumstances, like maybe if they're brand new to Mafia and the concept of RVS and are naturally an anxious person, or maybe if they just came off of being mislimmed because they E-1ed someone in RVS unknowingly, they're going to be more worried the next time around.

Ok, fair. What gives you the impression that Celebloki is new to Mafia and is anxious? Have you looked at previous games to see if maybe he could be worried about it this time around?

[Black]

Maybe I forgot to say non-trivial post or substantial post.

There's content in his non-RN posts

This kinda just feels like a weak excuse to jump on the wagon

[davesaz]

Elements is a champion baffler for sure.

I'm not inclined to vote for the millers. I think I agree with Gamma's take.

trivial, not AI

I'm not sure. Dunn's claim felt like a joke with it being the first post of the game. Kyouko's feels more real but I'm not familiar enough with her to tell if it's coming from scum

I feel Duun's claim is genuine, millers often claim miller in their opening posts. Duun's miller claim feels straight up, unlikely that mafia plays this directly. Kyouko feels real/potentially opportunistic, shielding herself behind the initial miller claim if she is mafia

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

Kyouko claimed miller in her opening post too, it seems unfair to say her claim is illegitimate just because Dunn got to the game first. Not everyone can have the opening post of a game.

I could count this as a post.

VT

I understand why people claim miller early on, but why throw out a VT claim on page 1? I'm coming to this site mostly from a background where claiming was against the rules, so I would love to hear how claiming this helps the town.

So scum will not target me and I can last till end game. I believe in myself to find scum as long as I'm alive long enough. Now I just need to be towny enough to not be voted out. I've eliminated half of the work.

You understand why it's generally anti-town to openly claim VT though, right?

True but how does it progress the game?

It seems like some people are being overly-critical, but maybe it's just people eager to get the game out of an RVS mindset.

Does this progress the game?

And I guess follow-up question, why do you think Kyouko voted me and quoted 217?

I'd have to look at 217 to know whether this is related to RN or not, but suspect it is.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Can someone explain the case on Celebloki?

Spoiler: case highlighted in color

I've also been in a lot of games that Random Nurse was in a the start, my RVS vote on him is basically because I knew he wasn't going to show.

VOTE: Celebloki

It feels strange to me that nobody else took issue with this for the same reason I did. Guillotina voted here but not for the same reason.

The issue I have with this post is it reveals that Celebloki wanted a 'safe' RVS vote. Who but scum wants that?

Who but scum even thinks "I know this guy isnt going to show so I'll vote him in RVS"

If you're doing this as town you can just not vote. This is scum trying to fit in during RVS and now that we're out of it he felt comfortable enough to admit it.

He slipped imo

Who but scum even thinks "I know this guy isnt going to show so I'll vote him in RVS"

If you're doing this as town you can just not vote. This is scum trying to fit in during RVS and now that we're out of it he felt comfortable enough to admit it.

He slipped imo

I always have a reason for a vote, even in RVS. It can sometimes be just because I think their name is silly, because of a previous game with that person, or any other random reason. Are you saying all townies always truly randomly vote in RVS? You had no reason to vote Nono or guillotina at the start?

Nono, no. No reason I mean.

Guillotina, yes. For that one time he was scum (that I found on D1 who then turned it around on me and got me mislimmed D1) in that one game (Chrono Trigger Chronicles: The Rise of Yakra).

I don't think townies truly "randomly" vote, no. For me I was just looking through the player list and the name caught my eye so I voted nono. Then I stopped looking at the playerlist and got back to reading the game. Later on I looked at the full playerlist and recognized Guillotina and I did have a reason for that vote.

I dont think the problem is that your vote wasnt random

, I dont think town is always going to open up a random number generator and pick someone.

The reason you had I think is scum-indicative. If you think RN isn't going to join the game, why vote there (rhetorical)? You'll never get a reaction that way and I think as town (the royal) you would want to avoid that kind of vote that does nothing when they could make a different one that might produce something.

That's why I moved my vote from Nono to Guillotina, because with Nono it was just a vote for whomever, not that likely to get attention, but I did get Guillotina's attention when he started reading

So you're entire case on Celebloki is that you think his RVS vote was safe? I don't really think scum would be concerned over the optics of an RVS vote

Does anyone else have anything more substantial?

Yes, that it was safe on purpose. Nobody else has cased Celebloki I don't think. Guillo said his vote was for a different reason than mine so maybe he posted a reason somewhere, I feel like I read his reason and it didn't leave a lasting impression because I don't remember it. Mostly I remember being disappointed it was not for the reason I had not yet spoken

What is the scum motivation behind a safe RVS vote? I guess what I'm asking is do you think scum are paranoid about how their RVS votes look?

I think they

can

be, and less importantly, but still relevant: I think it's highly unlikely that town get paranoid about how their RVS vote looks outside of

extenuating

circumstances, like maybe if they're brand new to Mafia and the concept of RVS and are naturally an anxious person, or maybe if they just came off of being mislimmed because they E-1ed someone in RVS unknowingly, they're going to be more worried the next time around.

Ok, fair. What gives you the impression that Celebloki is new to Mafia and is anxious? Have you looked at previous games to see if maybe he could be worried about it this time around?

I don't get that impression, I was saying that outside of extenuating circumstances, the self-awareness of going after a "safe" RVS vote comes from scum. There are scum that won't care about how it looks, and outside of extenuating circumstances, I think town will not care about how their vote looks. And no I haven't looked at Celebloki's previous games for this purpose. I wasn't thinking of the extenuating circumstances when I made the vote, but even if I had been I would not have looked at the games most likely. Easy enough for him to explain why he wanted a safe vote if there is a reasonable explanation.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

reminder for me I need to go back and read what got marked as read when I posted

[davesaz]

I think my observation is much stronger than the RVS vote thing. I wouldn't put any priority on that kind of thinking at all.
Neither one is strong in terms of raw numbers. It's like rand+1% for the RVS thing and rand+10% for the lack of engagement thing.

I don't even know if Celebloki is the best candidate for this metric. See argument, research, find something better, lay a vote to see what having a *wagon* does.

[davesaz]

Dunnstral is not doing the things that usually cause me to incorrectly scum read him. I don't have enough data to know if inverting the meta is the right thing to do but it's a mild scumlean.

[Broccoli Quest 2]

I would like to propose a plan:

Every person list 2-4 people they are sure are town with higher than 90% certainty.

Then we make a pool of 4-5 people who never get voted today.

Then we just wagon a random person who's not in the pool, and repeat the same tomorrow. If the reads are accurate, that gives 33% chance to hit scum each day, or about 60% chance to to succeed on either.

My 2 are Gamma and Nurse btw.

Nice plan, scum

???

[Celebloki]

I honestly never understand how anyone can get AI vibes from RVS votes. My general philosophy is to largely ignore RVS votes and I mostly skim until I find the page that seems to be moving out of RVS shenanigans. My RVS votes are always knee jerk votes, whatever name in the list sparks something.

This game it was just seeing RN in the player list, I have been in several games 'with' him recently and I decided I wanted to vote him. I quoted 'with' because every completed game I've 'played' with him, he's either not confirmed his role and replaced out without even posting, or posted half a dozen or less times and replaced out. That was the extent of the thought I put into my RVS vote.

[Celebloki]

Do you guys legitimately get scum tells that pan out solely based on an RVS vote? Maybe I need to learn this skill.

[Broccoli Quest 2]

Celeb, may I offer a word of advice?

[Celebloki]

Sure

[Broccoli Quest 2]

If you want to be less scumread, STOP talking about how scummy or not scummy your RVS vote was, and start posting reads on OTHER players.

[Celebloki]

Also, I would love to stop talking about RN, but apparently the wagon on me revolves around my RVS vote on him and how I keep talking about him. Should I just ignore my wagon so I can stop talking about RN?

[Celebloki]

Cause I would prefer to not keep re-hashing it.

[Broccoli Quest 2]

Also, I would love to stop talking about RN, but apparently the wagon on me revolves around my RVS vote on him and how I keep talking about him. Should I just ignore my wagon so I can stop talking about RN?

YES

One. Hundred. Percent.

IGNORE YOUR WAGON.

[Broccoli Quest 2]

CSF and Gamma

Curious about CSF btw. That's not someone I expected to see here.

[Black]

Also, I would love to stop talking about RN, but apparently the wagon on me revolves around my RVS vote on him and how I keep talking about him. Should I just ignore my wagon so I can stop talking about RN?

Cause I would prefer to not keep re-hashing it.

If you are town then you should be doing other things. If all you can think about is your wagon then which votes on you are the most suspicious fypov?

[Black]

I would like to propose a plan:

Every person list 2-4 people they are sure are town with higher than 90% certainty.

Then we make a pool of 4-5 people who never get voted today.

Then we just wagon a random person who's not in the pool, and repeat the same tomorrow. If the reads are accurate, that gives 33% chance to hit scum each day, or about 60% chance to to succeed on either.

My 2 are Gamma and Nurse btw.

Nice plan, scum

???

I think scum are generally way more interested in who scumreads who and I don't think we are at the point in the game where we need to rally everyone to list off their top townreads. I also don't like your "wagon a random person who's not in the pool, rinse and repeat" suggestion on top of that. Feels really agenda driven

[Broccoli Quest 2]

I think scum are generally way more interested in who

scumreads

who

I'd like to know who you

townread

Hmmm...

I don't think we are at the point in the game where we need to rally everyone to list off their top townreads. I also don't like your "wagon a random person who's not in the pool, rinse and repeat" suggestion on top of that. Feels really agenda driven

Maybe I should explain why I suggested that:

I feel this game is kinda going nowhere. Like most Day 1's, there are a bunch of viable wagons. Here I feel most wagons are like dead inside and no one really feels like they are being pressured, and also no wagon is especially attractive to me. So I think doing something different might be a good idea, regardless of whether that something different is an amazing strategy or just a meh strategy like mine.

What kind of agenda do you think this has? My only agenda is to actually get a serious wagon going on someone who is not consensus town so that reactions and reads happen, and more importantly, we get a flip and can start analyzing stuff.

[Broccoli Quest 2]

WHy is it scummy to want to know people's reads?

For example I would have wanted to wagon CSF or Keyleth (just outta PoE, not due to anything especially scummy), but it feels like people are implicitly TRing them, and then I feel demotivated to do anything about it because people are like "nah" but there was no explicit consensus TR before that. If we have consensus TRs I can start a wagon which I know could get support.